Which Frontline Starter Should the Twins Go Get?

  On 10/24/2022 at 8:15 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

The MLB trade simulator show to get Alcantara the Twins would have to give up Duran, Larnach, Lee and Ryan. You might be able to swap in Lewis or Miranda for Lee or possible Ober and Polanco for Ryan.

Lopez would cost way less, something that has Lee/Lewis/Miranda and a Varland or SWR. Maybe Polanco/Arrez and a Ober with a throw in or two.

 

Expand  

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Do not do these trades.

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:11 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

Thanks for a good topic Ted, this really got the comments rolling!!  I'm pretty much in the tony&rodney/Doc Bauer camp on this one.  First, you can never have too much pitching, especially at the rate our pitchers get hurt.  But I think much like last season with Buxton the #1 issue needing to be settled, Correa is the #1 issue this off season and nothing much could or should happen until that is resolved.  

I think the Twins have a pretty decent idea what the price for Correa will be, but you just never know.  I certainly didn't expect him to land with the Twins last off season.  While I understand the idea of Urshela playing some SS before Lewis is healthy I'm not one to go that direction.  I like Gio at 3B for one more year.  If Correa doesn't work out, I'm O.K. with kicking the tires on Bogaerts, or possibly settling on Kiner-Falefa or either Mondesi/Lopez from the Royals.  

With the exception of the Rogers trade to San Diego (which still could be a plus if Paddock can get healthy and return to expected form) I thought the FO did a pretty good job.  I like the acquisitions of Mahle, Gray, Julio Lopez.  Each has a meaningful spot/role on our team going forward.  The pitcher I would target is Carlos Rodon for all the obvious reasons and he's actually LEFT-HANDED !!  

Kepler's trade value is just too low and at this stage of his career he's a perfect fit for a 4th outfielder and late inning defense.  I've been saying that with Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Max something has to give.  If the Twins fail to land Rodon (but maybe even if they do) I package Larnach and other pieces to Miami for Pablo Lopez and maybe a bullpen piece they are willing to part with.  We have an overabundance of LH hitting OF'ers and Miami has an overabundance of pitchers.  Let's make a deal !!  

We still need a dependable catcher.  I'm sorry, Jeffers is a backup.  Toronto has top prospect Gabe Moreno, Jansen and Kirk.  Make a deal for Jansen or Kirk.  Maybe Atlanta wants to make William Contreras their #1 catcher.  What would it take to get d'Arnaud ?  Please, just fix the catcher position.  

Expand  

Good post, except for trading Larnach, plus some other pieces for Lopez. I'd like to see that happen, but the "other pieces" probably will be too costly.

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:59 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Do not do these trades.

Expand  

? Just pointing out to people that it isn't cheap to get a guy from another team, let alone dumping your garbage off on another team and thinking they will jump at that opportunity.

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:11 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

Th I've been saying that with Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Max something has to give.  If the Twins fail to land Rodon (but maybe even if they do) I package Larnach and other pieces to Miami for Pablo Lopez and maybe a bullpen piece they are willing to part with.  We have an overabundance of LH hitting OF'ers and Miami has an overabundance of pitchers.  Let's make a deal !!  

We still need a dependable catcher.  I'm sorry, Jeffers is a backup.  Toronto has top prospect Gabe Moreno, Jansen and Kirk.  Make a deal for Jansen or Kirk.  Maybe Atlanta wants to make William Contreras their #1 catcher.  What would it take to get d'Arnaud ?  Please, just fix the catcher position.  

Expand  

Wallner is still AAA level, at best but I agree with the remainder for the most part.

  On 10/25/2022 at 11:47 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Gausman and Ray signed 5/110 and 5/115 and Rodon make 22 last season. Can't see him settling for a 3 or 4 year contract.

Expand  

Exactly. After a strong and healthy season, he's going to want 5 years for sure, and isn't going to take a discount from anyone. 5/$125M might be the low end, IMHO. I would still give it to him if we're not going to re-sign Correa (heck , i'd give it to him even if we are! I would be perfectly comfortable spending all of our FA payroll space on 2 players and going for internal/minimum salary options to fill other needs if we could do it). But Rodon might need to start at $30M AAV after his last two seasons. Again, I think the rotation is at a point where that risk is worth it: Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, & Ober is a really nice rotation that has depth and high-end upside. And the Twins have injury depth for the rotation in Maeda, Dobnak, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Winder, etc. We don't need veteran depth at $8-12M per season, we need high end investment or to put those resources elsewhere.

I'd prefer to take the monetary risk of buying high and healthy on Rodon than try and trade for a top starter at this point. the amount of prospect capital we'd need to give up would leave us pretty empty unless some of our own lottery tickets take big leaps, and we need to keep moving prospects through in order to balance out our needs. If we crap out on Rodon because he gets hurt or turns into a pumpkin, so be it. but he could lead the rotation for years while the pitching pipeline flows in and we're able to fill the rotation with guys on rookie deals and then moves on when SWR gets extended or something.

It's not going to take 7-8 years on Rodon, but it will take 5 and a significant AAV. But I think he's worth it, and it's the sort of risk worth going for.

  On 10/25/2022 at 3:04 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

? Just pointing out to people that it isn't cheap to get a guy from another team, let alone dumping your garbage off on another team and thinking they will jump at that opportunity.

Expand  

I agree. 

I was with Ted's original post until the throw-in line that you can afford both a frontline starter and Correa. Which is completely wrong. Sign Correa, and Rodón is gone. Sign Rodón and Correa is gone, because I agree with @jmlease1 that you are probably talking 5 years and pushing $30 milliion per year.

And that is what I'd do, because we need a healthy Rodón more than we need Correa. (Reminder, we HAD Carlos this year and finished a distant 3rd in a weak division.)

Nope (where I disagree with jm), we can't make up the rest with minimum contracts, because this team was not even close to being a player away; we need a starting catcher and another potent OF bat at least.

And we both need to have our young players get healthy and develop into stars (possible), and still be able to sign them in 2-3 years (not possible if we tie up all of our money for 5 years on both the ace and SS). 

Depends on where you take your risks.  I think you need 2 bullpen pieces, a catcher, a right handed hitting outfielder (this are around), and maybe a starter or a shortstop.  Would prefer the starter (we have shortstops in the pipeline), and look at the top end (Rodon, maybe Bassett, or others closer to that end), Otherwise we need to see what our young pitchers have to make decisions at the end of 2023.  

If you can get Rodon for 5/125 then go ahead, but I don't think that'll be enough. Same with Correa at 7/245 or Judge at 10/350. There are a lot of teams with a lot of money chasing very few top names this winter, and most of the teams that hold these FAs are probably going to take a solid run at keeping them. 

But here's the thing: last year was unreal for pitching injuries in MN. We have a decent starting rotation coming back that was not playing at the end of the season (Maeda, Mahle, Paddock with Winder and Ober barely back to appear in October.) So there are a half dozen good arms for #3-#5, with Grey likely to be a good #2 for as long as he holds up and the only real job opening as a playoff #1. We can get along without that one until June if the rest of the team shows up and plays. 

So get the bullpen straight, find a catcher, fill SS, maybe find that ace.  I'd offer Correa $35m for seven and see if he bites, I'd try 5/125 on Rodon (and maybe keep half an eye on Sean Manaea's market.)  Catcher should come from TOR and maybe trade for the SP from Florida.

And then I'd really look hard at who in our org needs to move from starter to the pen: who is under-performing, who needs a change of scenery, who can't stay healthy, who can't develop that next pitch to make them really effective. There's a world of opportunity here for a couple guys who want to take the chance of being the next Duran.  (And there's a world of opportunity here for someone to write a piece on how to find those guys.)

Take a serious run at Rodon or Bassitt. If you can’t sign them I would go a very unpopular route. Package Arreaz and another decent prospect for the best starter available in trade.  We have people to cover all the positions Arreaz plays and his value will never be higher. 

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:11 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

We still need a dependable catcher.  I'm sorry, Jeffers is a backup.  Toronto has top prospect Gabe Moreno, Jansen and Kirk.  Make a deal for Jansen or Kirk.  Maybe Atlanta wants to make William Contreras their #1 catcher.  What would it take to get d'Arnaud ?  Please, just fix the catcher position.  

Expand  

I'm seeing this kind of comment a lot, and I'm a bit confused by it. Why are people so ready to write off Jeffers as the primary catcher for this team? He didn't have a good year at the plate, but he wasn't (and isn't) helpless up there and he's definitely a quality defender at the position. The kind of WAR he's put up even when struggling at the plate is in line for a starting quality catcher in MLB, so why exactly are people so ready to dump him at age 26? Because his BA gets down to the Mendoza Line?

We need a partner for him because it's damn hard to keep a catcher fresh and in the lineup for 140 games, but there's no reason he can't be the primary catcher and provide good value. Again: even with a big (but fluky) injury, Jeffers still caught more games than Garver did last year (and basically as many as Garver & Rortvedt combined). I think people need to adjust their expectations and understanding about what production from the catcher position is going to look like.

  On 10/26/2022 at 1:24 PM, jmlease1 said:

I'm seeing this kind of comment a lot, and I'm a bit confused by it. Why are people so ready to write off Jeffers as the primary catcher for this team? He didn't have a good year at the plate, but he wasn't (and isn't) helpless up there and he's definitely a quality defender at the position. The kind of WAR he's put up even when struggling at the plate is in line for a starting quality catcher in MLB, so why exactly are people so ready to dump him at age 26? Because his BA gets down to the Mendoza Line?

We need a partner for him because it's damn hard to keep a catcher fresh and in the lineup for 140 games, but there's no reason he can't be the primary catcher and provide good value. Again: even with a big (but fluky) injury, Jeffers still caught more games than Garver did last year (and basically as many as Garver & Rortvedt combined). I think people need to adjust their expectations and understanding about what production from the catcher position is going to look like.

Expand  

He isn’t a quality defender. He is extremely poor at throwing out runners and is poor at blocking pitches. People base his positive defensive ratings based on pitch framing which is nebulous at best and complete bull crap at worst. 

  On 10/25/2022 at 2:50 AM, ashbury said:

I thought Brian just explained why it won't.

Expand  

Ok homey, simply put, this team from the top down sucks. whatever talent Falvey inherited, he has succeeded in ruining it. We let him hire a manager, and pitching coach. We let him spend millions on high tech stress plates, and spin machines we let him hire 200 analytics staffers to basically do the job that one man, or woman can do. (See Book of Joe) and after six years we still have to hear how great Derek Falvey is. The problem is he can't hear any of your praises because his face is still up terry francona's ass. What a waste of 7 years. I told you so!

  On 10/25/2022 at 6:23 PM, PatPfund said:

I was with Ted's original post until the throw-in line that you can afford both a frontline starter and Correa. Which is completely wrong. Sign Correa, and Rodón is gone. Sign Rodón and Correa is gone, because I agree with @jmlease1 that you are probably talking 5 years and pushing $30 milliion per year.

And that is what I'd do, because we need a healthy Rodón more than we need Correa. (Reminder, we HAD Carlos this year and finished a distant 3rd in a weak division.)

Nope (where I disagree with jm), we can't make up the rest with minimum contracts, because this team was not even close to being a player away; we need a starting catcher and another potent OF bat at least.

And we both need to have our young players get healthy and develop into stars (possible), and still be able to sign them in 2-3 years (not possible if we tie up all of our money for 5 years on both the ace and SS). 

Expand  

Impressive.  You have considered the risk profile and sustainability of the options which is what I would hope any front office would do.  It's not hard at all to put together a plan that maximizes the immediate term.  It's also quite easy to go down a path that results in several years of futility.  Baseball executives talk about this balance fairly often when interviewed.  Many fans put by far more emphasis on the immediate term.

They are not going to sign both Correa and Rodon because of what you have pointed out.  Their odds of getting either one of them is extremely low.  However, I hope they go hard after Rodon.  Absolutely agree they could recover from Rodon not working out.  It would obviously hurt but there is a path to putting a good team on the field even if he did not perform or was hurt.

Rodon and Contreras would be my top pursuits this offseason if i were the Twins.  Contreras will take BIGGGG money to sign and Rodon won't be cheap, but with Correra all but gone the Twins can afford it.

  On 11/16/2022 at 8:13 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They could sign both, bring in a cheap placeholder at short, and still have a lower payroll than last year. 

Expand  

Yep or they could add an $8-10M RP and be at the same number.

  On 11/16/2022 at 5:46 PM, ashbury said:

So, to go back to what you were actually replying to and to summarize: how does Max Kepler move the needle for Miami?

Also, now that Frank Quilici has passed away, I guess we get to spell his name any old way?

Expand  

And in response, i know how to spell my name...and it will take way more than Kepler to get Lopez from Miami. Kepler is better served in rf for the Twins. We already know he won't hit great(although the new rules will help) but as a defender i would argue he's a top 3 right fielder.  Most teams wouldnt value his kind of defense and versatility. And by the way, why is it a thing here to fix things that aren't wrong? Where's the story about tendering Pagan, or trading Urshela for NOTHING

  On 11/16/2022 at 5:46 PM, ashbury said:

So, to go back to what you were actually replying to and to summarize: how does Max Kepler move the needle for Miami?

Also, now that Frank Quilici has passed away, I guess we get to spell his name any old way?

Expand  

What a troll