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  • Twins Facing a Shakeup Without Massive 2023


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins are trending towards a finish to the 2022 Major League Baseball season that has them looking at something near a .500 record. It was hardly how this had to go, but not far off from where projections initially suggested. If the organization is going to avoid another shakeup, then 2023 is do or die.

     

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota Twins front office six seasons ago. 2023 will be year seven. In that timeframe the club has been to the postseason three times while winning two AL Central division titles. There’s certainly some success there, but ultimately it comes with an 0-6 record in the postseason, which has accounted for one-third of the 0-18 futility during October.

    There’s only a partial pass for the Twins to be had in 2022. The injuries were significant. 37 pitchers have been used for the first time in franchise history. Byron Buxton played injured from the jump, and time was missed by Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. All those things are fair to suggest that plenty has been working against Rocco Baldelli and his bosses. It’s also time to realize there’s no more room for error or excuses.

    It’s safe to say that the front office, and the manager, aren’t looking for a pass. Both those in the clubhouse and those employing it are looking for a way to create a sustainable winner for the future. Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline similar to that of Cleveland. Levine is a smart general manager who has made some shrewd moves. Baldelli can run a clubhouse and has orchestrated difficult decisions. For all the good each party has done, the results now have to follow.

    In year seven the Twins won’t, and shouldn’t be given the benefit of doubt. 2022 saw a franchise-high payroll that included the signing of superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. He fell into Minnesota’s lap and is likely gone over the offseason. It will be on the front office to appropriately name his replacement, and find ways to use that money. Plenty of the roster is penciled but almost all of it carries some level of uncertainty as to availability or expectation.

    There’s no more room for acquisitions like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. Every offseason addition has to be made under the premise of creating the best roster possible, with nothing added just to fill the fringes. Management can’t dictate any more reclamation projects to play a substantial role, and when something doesn’t work similar to Emilio Pagan this season, the plug has to be pulled.

    It’s more than fair to understand those running the Twins are an incredibly smart group with very good ideas. Both rooted in analytical outcomes and results based decision making, there’s probably never been a better group across the board. Ultimately though, the only thing that matters is the wins and losses, and they haven’t had enough of them.

    Over the winter the front office and coaching staff will need to find ways to improve internally. That will mean staffers being replaced, coaches being changed out, and developmental areas being addressed. This should be the last go-round for the collective as a whole, and there’s no excuse to forgo bringing in fresh faces to help reach the ultimate goal.

    There’s plenty of argument to be made that 2022 was never seen as the year to go “all in.” The trade deadline was navigated with a focus on the now, but a vision to the future as well. Fast forwarding to Opening Day 2023 and the future becomes now, with no more room for missteps. It’s time to come through on the vision, or change it entirely.

     

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    On 9/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, LastOnePicked said:

    I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility.

    If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning. 

    We have this conversation EVERY single year.  2-3 years ago was supposed to be their window of opportunity but instead every year is a total rebuild.  
     

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    On 9/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, LastOnePicked said:

    I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility.

    If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning. 

    Are we having the same discussion from the end of last season? Outside of injuries, I'm not sure we are. Except for the people who want baseball to go back to some version of what they think they remember from days of yore...those people are always having the same conversation in pretty much every thread, and likely will be having the same conversation for years to come, because baseball ain't gonna go back to what they think it was any time soon (if ever).

    We're not asking the same questions about the rotation for next season; end of last season it was "who the hell is going to start for this team", and this year the real question is "can this group be healthy enough?" We were asking "do we sign Buxton or trade him" and now we're asking "how do we manage it for the 30-70 games he might/will miss?"

    And as frustrating as this season has been, it's not the same as last year. Last season, we had a team that fell apart early and threw itself in the dumpster fire. They were never in the hunt, and looked like the last place team they were. This season is a different kind of disappointment; an injury-fueled collapse after a pretty good start that had them on pace to win the division, even with the flaws that were obvious for all to see. But they addressed those at the deadline...and it didn't work out or matter, because injuries and some poor performance (and bad luck) wiped them out.

    being 20-25 in 1-run games is partly about ability, but it's partly about luck. Facing lefty pitching at a time when your RH hitters are all hurt (hi, Texas!) is bad luck. Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck. We're 6-13 vs Cleveland this season, but the runs scored is dead even. (Cleveland is 26-16 in 1-run games this year. yes, they're playing well, but that's also luck) I mean, the Twins were not a good team in 2021, but they were 25-19 in 1-run games. 

     

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    27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

    Are we having the same discussion from the end of last season? Outside of injuries, I'm not sure we are. Except for the people who want baseball to go back to some version of what they think they remember from days of yore...those people are always having the same conversation in pretty much every thread, and likely will be having the same conversation for years to come, because baseball ain't gonna go back to what they think it was any time soon (if ever).

    We're not asking the same questions about the rotation for next season; end of last season it was "who the hell is going to start for this team", and this year the real question is "can this group be healthy enough?" We were asking "do we sign Buxton or trade him" and now we're asking "how do we manage it for the 30-70 games he might/will miss?"

    And as frustrating as this season has been, it's not the same as last year. Last season, we had a team that fell apart early and threw itself in the dumpster fire. They were never in the hunt, and looked like the last place team they were. This season is a different kind of disappointment; an injury-fueled collapse after a pretty good start that had them on pace to win the division, even with the flaws that were obvious for all to see. But they addressed those at the deadline...and it didn't work out or matter, because injuries and some poor performance (and bad luck) wiped them out.

    being 20-25 in 1-run games is partly about ability, but it's partly about luck. Facing lefty pitching at a time when your RH hitters are all hurt (hi, Texas!) is bad luck. Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck. We're 6-13 vs Cleveland this season, but the runs scored is dead even. (Cleveland is 26-16 in 1-run games this year. yes, they're playing well, but that's also luck) I mean, the Twins were not a good team in 2021, but they were 25-19 in 1-run games. 

     

    The "pretty good start" that lasted 40ish games and "had them on pace to win the division" was an accurate picture of the team, but the 90 loss pace since mid-May is just bad luck, and injuries.

    We're 6-13 against Cleveland, despite the same number of runs scored, and its just luck. Not managerial skill in close games. Nothing to be done.

     

    Sure.

     

     

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    Last year we were assured that the fall from two consecutive division titles was just some bad luck.  Another season later, and now we're being told, give 'em time.  Personally, I've seen enough to want to shop around for other eager and talented underlings from some other FO to guide the team if we're talking rebuild.  Although, in fairness, if I don't care for this FO, it is how we got them 6 years ago.

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    2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck.

    I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer?

    I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

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    The front office has not shown me that they know when to hold them or know when to fold them  ...

    Yes they have tried to build a winner and have held on to players and prospects  , they have never been  known when to trade a player at their highest value  ,,, kepler for example who i love his defense but his hitting  is as bad as a second string catcher had extreme value but fo thought he was part of the future because they are trying to build a winning team , he had bad averages before 2019 and then a career year ( heck they all had career years but the fo didn't recognize it and held on to players that  were likely to underachieve the following year rather than trading at their highest value  ) ...

    Berrios maybe was traded at his highest value but the jury is out on the return  ...

    This front office now has to prove to me at least that it can recognize  a players talent and if they are part of the future and keep them,,, if not trade them at their highest values  ...

    For those that like analytics ,  great ...

    For those that Don't like analytics , great ...

    For those that would like to see small ball fundamentals with analytics  you are great too ..

    Mix it up and add some excitement  because it has turned into a boring game the fo has put on the field ...

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    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    The "pretty good start" that lasted 40ish games and "had them on pace to win the division" was an accurate picture of the team, but the 90 loss pace since mid-May is just bad luck, and injuries.

    We're 6-13 against Cleveland, despite the same number of runs scored, and its just luck. Not managerial skill in close games. Nothing to be done.

     

    Sure.

     

     

    Sarcasm chief ???  ... 

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    3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

    I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer?

    I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

    Which came first, the chicken or the egg? When teams win lots of close games, people talk about their "winning mentality". When players hit with runners in scoring position they're described as "clutch". There's been some pretty good studies over the years that suggests that the variance in team's W-L record in 1-run games is mostly about luck. The Twins this season are a better team than last year's edition, for a variety of reasons (and are guaranteed to finish with a better record). But last year's team was substantially better in 1-run games. Did last year's team have more of a winning mentality than this year's team? 

    Frequently a hallmark of a good team is some good luck. Are they lucky because they're good or are they good because they're lucky? (and injuries are part of that luck) I'd argue it's always a bit of both.

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    39 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

    Frequently a hallmark of a good team is some good luck. Are they lucky because they're good or are they good because they're lucky? (and injuries are part of that luck) I'd argue it's always a bit of both.

    Yep, in 1953 Ted Williams was the luckiest ball player in the World,?

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    On 9/24/2022 at 8:25 AM, Russ said:

    I would love to see an anonymous evaluation from other MLB managers and GM's opinion of the Twins.  I wouldn't be pretty.

    Well, for starters, I love how some teams started running the bases on the Twins. They discovered the pitchers were inexperienced and the catching awful.

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    2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    There's been some pretty good studies over the years that suggests that the variance in team's W-L record in 1-run games is mostly about luck.

    I'm sorry, but you're saying there are credible studies that validate the concept of "luck"? You're pulling my leg, right?

    Let's not get carried away with the idea that the 2022 Twins are a huge improvement of the 2021 Twins. They may end only one game better, record-wise, and at least the 2021 Twins could beat a team like the Astros.

    I try to think about baseball the way I want to see Twins leadership think. And from that perspective, I would NEVER, EVER hand over my team's fate to the concept of "luck." You have to fight with whatever tools/skills you have to make your own luck.

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    15 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

    I’m a 35 year old man and have seen 6 twins playoff wins. Six. Too young to understand ‘91

    We will never seriously compete until we build a new stadium

    Hmmmm - What kind of stadium do we need?

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    "Levine is a smart general manager who has made some shrewd moves. Baldelli can run a clubhouse and has orchestrated difficult decisions."

    Can you explain these comments in greater detail? If trading for injured players is shrewd then I guess you are correct. If setting a different lineup every day and pulling pitchers after twice through a lineup is running a clubhouse and making difficult decisions then I guess you are correct. Contrary to your statements IMO, the FO has done nothing shrewd and most any other GM tries to avoid what they seem to overlook and the manager doesn't know how to deviate from a plan regardless of the in-game situation so he is taking the easy way out.

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