Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SS

DocBauer · February 7, 2023

OK, so I'm late to this party for sure! A little self-editing on myself: I have stated previously, somewhat flippantly in retrospect, that the Twins should leave him alone and get comfortable and do what feels natural. I never meant to imply in my own personal retrospect of him as a prospect that they SHOULDN'T work with him and develop his swing. He ABSOLUTELY has to develop at least a little power.

Martin is a very talented individual. He appears to have a great eye and provides a great OB%. But ML pitchers will bust him inside and tie him up if he can't turn on some pitches and drive others. Hitting .240-.250 at the milb level with a .379-ish slugging does not bode well for a ML career. But he DOESN'T have to be turned in to high 20-35 HR player to be very good.

Can we compare Martin and Arraez as potentially similar OB guys? Yes. And while Martin has way more speed than Arraez, Arraez is simply a better "hitter" and can stroke 30+ doubles and can turn on a pitch for HR power once in a while. At least we saw that in 2022. At this point. Martin hasn't come close to doing that.

So yeah, Martin HAS to develop some power. Doesn't mean he has to be a slugger, so stop trying to make him one and find an approach to raise the BA a little, and get him to be a 35 doubles, 7 triple, 12-15HR guy with his other skills and you have a potential All Star player.

AS A PROSPECT: He's out of my top 10 until I see a better BA and some of that needed pop/power to go along with his OB% and speed. Pop/power doesn't always happen at once, and further, it doesn't mean you are a slugger. But while they need to find a "comfortable place" with his stance and stroke, I need to see more before I jump on his bandwagon.

Defensively, SS needs to be done with except as an emergency, late/extra inning situation. He played 2B/3B in college and should continue to work at those 2 spots. But the Twins say he's a "natural" in the OF. That's where he should play: LF/CF and mix in 3B/2B. He might even relax mentally at the plate eliminating SS. (Which I think and hope they are now prepared to do).

I believe he was done a disservice being drafted, sitting out a year, and then being placed in AA. He was much better late in 2022...health may have played a part in that...and looked much better in the AFL facing similar pitching. I think he's best served going to St Paul for a challenge and a change of scenery to begin the upcoming year.

I have hope for him to figure it out. But he's somewhere in the 11-20 range for me as a prospect until I see a jump with the bat.

chpettit19 · February 7, 2023

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Sometimes adjustments make things worse.

Not all players will respond positively to changes intended to increase power.

When the player doesn't respond positively, it is important to stop pounding the square peg into the round cylinder.

Knowing when to pull back is indeed part of, wait for it, wait for it..... GOOD COACHING!

Good coaches don't implement a once size fits all strategy. Good coaches have the confidence to admit when their initial plan is not working as intended. Good coaches know when to adjust their strategy.

Martin regressed when the coaches tinkered to improve his power

It makes good sense to back off those adjustments.

Buxton was a fantastic example of when sometimes less is more.

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Looks like his hips are more rotated (loaded) and lead elbow up/bat back all as an effort for more efficient power generation.

"Martin regressed when the coaches tinkered to improve his power"
"Looks like his hips are more rotated (loaded) and lead elbow up/bat back all as an effort for more efficient power generation."

I'm confused on why the assumption is that the coaches tinkering made him regress when his stance and swing were the same as in college, but when it was different "as an effort for more efficient power generation" it wasn't coach tinkering. Do you have information that the swing adjustments weren't from the Twins coaches?

Nobody suggested a "one size fits all" strategy. But "good coaching" is about getting the most out of the player, not just "leaving them alone" as has been suggested here by many people. Him having no power and just being a high OBP with solid speed is totally ok. The coaches, and him, never trying to be more than that isn't. None of us have any inside information on how the coaching went with him. We don't know that he wasn't refusing to make adjustments because he was hurt or happy with who he was in college and then decided to listen to the coaches after his season was going terribly. We don't know if he said "screw the coaches I'm doing it my way" when the season was going terribly. But his swing and stance were the same in college, when he first got here, and at the beginning of this year. Then they changed and he performed to the level the Twins were hoping he would. It's weird to me that you type one comment suggesting that he shouldn't be tinkered with and then point out that he changed his stance for more power and that stance lead to more power. He tinkered and found success.

Danchat · February 7, 2023

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

OK, so I'm late to this party for sure! A little self-editing on myself: I have stated previously, somewhat flippantly in retrospect, that the Twins should leave him alone and get comfortable and do what feels natural. I never meant to imply in my own personal retrospect of him as a prospect that they SHOULDN'T work with him and develop his swing. He ABSOLUTELY has to develop at least a little power.

Martin is a very talented individual. He appears to have a great eye and provides a great OB%. But ML pitchers will bust him inside and tie him up if he can't turn on some pitches and drive others. Hitting .240-.250 at the milb level with a .379-ish slugging does not bode well for a ML career. But he DOESN'T have to be turned in to high 20-35 HR player to be very good.

Can we compare Martin and Arraez as potentially similar OB guys? Yes. And while Martin has way more speed than Arraez, Arraez is simply a better "hitter" and can stroke 30+ doubles and can turn on a pitch for HR power once in a while. At least we saw that in 2022. At this point. Martin hasn't come close to doing that.

So yeah, Martin HAS to develop some power. Doesn't mean he has to be a slugger, so stop trying to make him one and find an approach to raise the BA a little, and get him to be a 35 doubles, 7 triple, 12-15HR guy with his other skills and you have a potential All Star player.

AS A PROSPECT: He's out of my top 10 until I see a better BA and some of that needed pop/power to go along with his OB% and speed. Pop/power doesn't always happen at once, and further, it doesn't mean you are a slugger. But while they need to find a "comfortable place" with his stance and stroke, I need to see more before I jump on his bandwagon.

Defensively, SS needs to be done with except as an emergency, late/extra inning situation. He played 2B/3B in college and should continue to work at those 2 spots. But the Twins say he's a "natural" in the OF. That's where he should play: LF/CF and mix in 3B/2B. He might even relax mentally at the plate eliminating SS. (Which I think and hope they are now prepared to do).

I believe he was done a disservice being drafted, sitting out a year, and then being placed in AA. He was much better late in 2022...health may have played a part in that...and looked much better in the AFL facing similar pitching. I think he's best served going to St Paul for a challenge and a change of scenery to begin the upcoming year.

I have hope for him to figure it out. But he's somewhere in the 11-20 range for me as a prospect until I see a jump with the bat.

I agree with all this, I just don't get the Arraez comparisons. Martin hit .241 in his second go-around at AA with no power, Arraez hit in the .290s his first time around. Frankly I don't care a whole ton about the power, the issue is that outside of drawing walks he is a poor hitter against AA competition, and he's also not on track to be a plus defender. I don't get their insistence of keeping him at SS when it's obvious he won't stick there in the majors.

His much better hitting in the fall league is encouraging, but he needs to do a whole lot more to regain his former prospect status - he was considered 1A/1B with Royce Lewis last year, now he looks like he might end up being a utility/bench bat. There was a tweet in the Berrios trade discussion about how the Blue Jays don't trade away top prospects that they believe in...

Mike Sixel · February 7, 2023

2 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I agree with all this, I just don't get the Arraez comparisons. Martin hit .241 in his second go-around at AA with no power, Arraez hit in the .290s his first time around. Frankly I don't care a whole ton about the power, the issue is that outside of drawing walks he is a poor hitter against AA competition, and he's also not on track to be a plus defender. I don't get their insistence of keeping him at SS when it's obvious he won't stick there in the majors.

His much better hitting in the fall league is encouraging, but he needs to do a whole lot more to regain his former prospect status - he was considered 1A/1B with Royce Lewis last year, now he looks like he might end up being a utility/bench bat. There was a tweet in the Berrios trade discussion about how the Blue Jays don't trade away top prospects that they believe in...

If it were true that the Jays never trade good prospects, no one would trade with them. Ever.

DocBauer · February 7, 2023

3 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I agree with all this, I just don't get the Arraez comparisons. Martin hit .241 in his second go-around at AA with no power, Arraez hit in the .290s his first time around. Frankly I don't care a whole ton about the power, the issue is that outside of drawing walks he is a poor hitter against AA competition, and he's also not on track to be a plus defender. I don't get their insistence of keeping him at SS when it's obvious he won't stick there in the majors.

His much better hitting in the fall league is encouraging, but he needs to do a whole lot more to regain his former prospect status - he was considered 1A/1B with Royce Lewis last year, now he looks like he might end up being a utility/bench bat. There was a tweet in the Berrios trade discussion about how the Blue Jays don't trade away top prospects that they believe in...

Agreed on the Arraez comparisons. It doesn't make sense to me other than some "grabbing" at the OB similarities with hope. Fabulous! More speed is awesome! The ability to be better defensively is a big plus. But at similar age and level, Arraez was/is a better hitter with more XB hits. Julien is a better comparison, even with differences. I hope for the best from Martin...but...when do we get to see any of the projections take form?

Melissa · February 7, 2023

10 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Great that he excelled in AFL but need to temper excitement due to pitching quality (look at the Twins pitchers sent).

I’ve heard similarly that hitting stats in the Arizona Fall League can be misleadingly high.
This is because teams tend to send some really good position players to AFL for additional work, but that they tend to withhold most promising pitching prospects due to limits on innings and the like.

If a pitcher hadn’t much game time that summer due to injury or the like it can be different.

joefish · February 7, 2023

I have a tough time getting excited about a prospect who isn't good enough to compete for a starting defensive position. Utility? I hope for more.

Danchat · February 7, 2023

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If it were true that the Jays never trade good prospects, no one would trade with them. Ever.

It was more that the Jays weren't as high on him as the prospects evaluators were, so they sold high on him. I couldn't find the source, but I'll post it if I can find it.

Mike Sixel · February 7, 2023

41 minutes ago, Danchat said:

It was more that the Jays weren't as high on him as the prospects evaluators were, so they sold high on him. I couldn't find the source, but I'll post it if I can find it.

Like the Twins aren't as high on Povich as some? Sure.

Mike Sixel · February 7, 2023

1 hour ago, joefish said:

I have a tough time getting excited about a prospect who isn't good enough to compete for a starting defensive position. Utility? I hope for more.

He could play left field defensively with no issue. Probably only needs a few weeks at second base. He'd be a good center fielder. I am not sure I understand your post

TNTwinsFan · February 7, 2023

A Mookie Betts payer comp?! A 55 Power rating?! Now I need to see a side by side Minors Stats comparison...no way he's a Mookie Betts comp.

Edit: Just looked it up. Betts slugged 200 points higher and OBPd 40 points higher than Martin in AA at a yonger age. th talent evaluators were off on this one.

puckstopper1 · February 7, 2023

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which player on last year's roster should have tried to steal more? If you aren't successful 80% of the time, you are giving up runs.

Mike - I feel there are certainly players on the Twins roster last season who could be doing more on the base paths including Kepler, Gordon, Correa, Cave etc.

It is a combination of both not having the runners AND the coaching philosophy.

The Twins rankings in MLB steals per game the past 3 seasons has been: 2020 - Tied for Last; 2021 - 25th; 2022 - Last

The point is expecting Martin to be a significant base stealer on the MLB roster is not likely to happen while Rocco is the manager. Having speed can certainly help him defensively.

chpettit19 · February 7, 2023

10 hours ago, Melissa said:

I’ve heard similarly that hitting stats in the Arizona Fall League can be misleadingly high.
This is because teams tend to send some really good position players to AFL for additional work, but that they tend to withhold most promising pitching prospects due to limits on innings and the like.

If a pitcher hadn’t much game time that summer due to injury or the like it can be different.

I think the key to looking at AFL stats is comparing them to the other top hitting prospects in the league. Him slugging nearly .500 shouldn't make us think he's going to slug like that in the majors, but seeing him be top 15 in the AFL in slugging should make us feel a little better about his ability to hit the ball with authority. Martin and Julien were at, or near, the top of the leader boards in a lot of the AFL offensive categories. Absolutely shouldn't think their actual numbers translate, but should be encouraging that they were a couple of the top performers amongst some big name prospects there.

DJL44 · February 7, 2023

I found this rule of thumb elsewhere:

Quote

if you are trading batting average for ISO (a typical trade-off) you want to make sure you gain at least 10% more ISO points than AVG points

For example, it is worth dropping AVG from .300 to .270 if your SLG goes from .400 to .415. This assumes you're still taking your walks.

D.C Twins · February 7, 2023

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"Martin regressed when the coaches tinkered to improve his power"
"Looks like his hips are more rotated (loaded) and lead elbow up/bat back all as an effort for more efficient power generation."

I'm confused on why the assumption is that the coaches tinkering made him regress when his stance and swing were the same as in college, but when it was different "as an effort for more efficient power generation" it wasn't coach tinkering. Do you have information that the swing adjustments weren't from the Twins coaches?

Nobody suggested a "one size fits all" strategy. But "good coaching" is about getting the most out of the player, not just "leaving them alone" as has been suggested here by many people. Him having no power and just being a high OBP with solid speed is totally ok. The coaches, and him, never trying to be more than that isn't. None of us have any inside information on how the coaching went with him. We don't know that he wasn't refusing to make adjustments because he was hurt or happy with who he was in college and then decided to listen to the coaches after his season was going terribly. We don't know if he said "screw the coaches I'm doing it my way" when the season was going terribly. But his swing and stance were the same in college, when he first got here, and at the beginning of this year. Then they changed and he performed to the level the Twins were hoping he would. It's weird to me that you type one comment suggesting that he shouldn't be tinkered with and then point out that he changed his stance for more power and that stance lead to more power. He tinkered and found success.

"None of us have any inside information on how the coaching went with him."

This is 100% true! We are all simply making inferences upon assumptions upon speculation. (Which is fun and one could argue the point of TD :)

IF adjustments were made to try and increase his power which correlated with his underperformance last year, THEN I HOPE the coaches acknowledge that perhaps it isn't working well and they can allow the elements of his original swing that lended themselves to a higher batting average to return.

The comment on batting stance was just that things changed. We would need many more data points to figure out when the changes were made to correlate them with results.

Again, super happy that AZ time went well, but will obviously need to see that translate to bigger sample size against better competition (it did portend well for Lewis though!)

I don't think we are that far off in our opinions, just coming at them from different directions

chpettit19 · February 7, 2023

20 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

"None of us have any inside information on how the coaching went with him."

This is 100% true! We are all simply making inferences upon assumptions upon speculation. (Which is fun and one could argue the point of TD :)

IF adjustments were made to try and increase his power which correlated with his underperformance last year, THEN I HOPE the coaches acknowledge that perhaps it isn't working well and they can allow the elements of his original swing that lended themselves to a higher batting average to return.

The comment on batting stance was just that things changed. We would need many more data points to figure out when the changes were made to correlate them with results.

Again, super happy that AZ time went well, but will obviously need to see that translate to bigger sample size against better competition (it did portend well for Lewis though!)

I don't think we are that far off in our opinions, just coming at them from different directions

I, too, am happy with the AFL results, and really hope they translate to AAA, and, eventually, the bigs, this year. He retains all his potential, but the likelihood he reaches it has taken a huge hit. Hoping he lights Fort Myers on fire and we can have a better feeling about him heading to St Paul this year. But a healthy dose of skepticism is awfully reasonable at this point.

I can give you a real basic timeline on the changes. He hit with the "original" stance all season until he was hurt towards the end. When he came back his hands were higher and his leg was cocked more (the 3rd stance shown). His good final month, and great AFL, were with the new stance. The awful majority of his season was with the old stance. Now that doesn't mean he hadn't been putting in work behind the scenes to change different things all season and we just saw the hands at the end. Or any number of things that could've been going on. But that new hand and leg positioning didn't appear until the end of the year when he returned from injury.

But, like you said, we are simply making inferences upon assumptions upon speculation about what lead to that change. I was simply pushing back on this idea that the Twins coaches screwed him up like Buxton (and I've now seen claims they screwed up Lewis) and the Twins coaches need to just leave guys alone and quit trying to make them all sluggers. The assumption made by some is that he failed last year because the coaches wanted him to be a slugger. My contention is that they weren't trying to make him a slugger, but were trying to get him to more have some power. Which is what every team does with every hitter. I'm pushing back on the idea that the Twins were trying to get him to be a 30+ HR guy at the expense of his BA. That wasn't their goal. The goal was to keep his BA and get him to 15-20 HRs a year. Cuz then he's an all star. I'd bet Martin was on board with that plan. Development isn't linear. Maybe it took a year of struggles and tweaks to finally find the right recipe. Who knows? But the idea that the Twins just want everyone to hit 30 bombs and don't care about BA simply isn't correct and that's what I was refuting. They just want players to get as close to their full potential as possible.

Steve Lein · February 7, 2023

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the key to looking at AFL stats is comparing them to the other top hitting prospects in the league. Him slugging nearly .500 shouldn't make us think he's going to slug like that in the majors, but seeing him be top 15 in the AFL in slugging should make us feel a little better about his ability to hit the ball with authority. Martin and Julien were at, or near, the top of the leader boards in a lot of the AFL offensive categories. Absolutely shouldn't think their actual numbers translate, but should be encouraging that they were a couple of the top performers amongst some big name prospects there.

As your Twins Daily AFL report writer, this is a very legitimate point. There seem to be several comments aimed at diminishing what Martin accomplished there when it should be quite the opposite, in my opinion.

Just look at Royce Lewis.

During the 2019 season with Fort Myers (then high-A) and Pensacola (double-A), Lewis hit a combined .236/.290/.371 with a well-below .700 OPS at both stops (.661 overall). Quite frankly, his bat never justified the bump to double-A, but I'm certain it happened because they wanted to get him out of the Florida State League environment and see what he'd do.

Then he went and hit .353/.411/.565 (.976 OPS) in the AFL and took home the MVP award. There was some downtime in there (injury, Covid) afterward, but he didn't miss a beat from that when he got back on the field and made an immediate impact upon his major league debut.

The parallel to Austin Martin is undeniable, here.

Martin hit .241/.368/.317 (.685 OPS) in 2022 with Wichita (double-A), then went to the AFL and was undeniably one of the best players, hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936 OPS).

The difference between them is Lewis displayed more power (9 2B's, 3 HR) and drove in runs (20 RBI) from the middle of the lineup, while Martin got on base, created more havoc while there, and scored runs from the top of the lineup.

Different types of hitters for sure, but they accomplished basically the same things in their own ways. You were likely already wrong once about the AFL with Lewis, don't be that guy again with Martin. 😂

chpettit19 · February 7, 2023

3 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

As your Twins Daily AFL report writer, this is a very legitimate point. There seem to be several comments aimed at diminishing what Martin accomplished there when it should be quite the opposite, in my opinion.

Just look at Royce Lewis.

During the 2019 season with Fort Myers (then high-A) and Pensacola (double-A), Lewis hit a combined .236/.290/.371 with a well-below .700 OPS at both stops (.661 overall). Quite frankly, his bat never justified the bump to double-A, but I'm certain it happened because they wanted to get him out of the Florida State League environment and see what he'd do.

Then he went and hit .353/.411/.565 (.976 OPS) in the AFL and took home the MVP award. There was some downtime in there (injury, Covid) afterward, but he didn't miss a beat from that when he got back on the field and made an immediate impact upon his major league debut.

The parallel to Austin Martin is undeniable, here.

Martin hit .241/.368/.317 (.685 OPS) in 2022 with Wichita (double-A), then went to the AFL and was undeniably one of the best players, hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936 OPS).

The difference between them is Lewis displayed more power (9 2B's, 3 HR) and drove in runs (20 RBI) from the middle of the lineup, while Martin got on base, created more havoc while there, and scored runs from the top of the lineup.

Different types of hitters for sure, but they accomplished basically the same things in their own ways. You were likely already wrong once about the AFL with Lewis, don't be that guy again with Martin. 😂

I've been driving the Lewis bandwagon since that AFL performance. I was calling for him to be on the opening day roster all last off season because I expected him to come out firing since he was healthy again. I'm not quite that high on Martin, but am feeling much better about him after watching his swing in the AFL and seeing him really attack the ball. I plan on getting to some early Saints games to watch Martin there. Hoping he makes it hard to keep him there long with a similar performance!

Steve Lein · February 7, 2023

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I've been driving the Lewis bandwagon since that AFL performance. I was calling for him to be on the opening day roster all last off season because I expected him to come out firing since he was healthy again. I'm not quite that high on Martin, but am feeling much better about him after watching his swing in the AFL and seeing him really attack the ball. I plan on getting to some early Saints games to watch Martin there. Hoping he makes it hard to keep him there long with a similar performance!

Just as a point of clarification based on what you bolded. I was talking to the others responding to your comments with that line, not you 😉

chpettit19 · February 7, 2023

5 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Just as a point of clarification based on what you bolded. I was talking to the others responding to your comments with that line, not you 😉

I followed, I just wanted to talk about Lewis and brag about one of the things I was finally right about!

Mike Sixel · February 7, 2023

I think people in this thread are replying to the idea he faced top pitching in the AFL, which the article implied, but isn't close to true. I think people, most of them, are tempering their excitement given that. Some clearly aren't believers, but some are.

h2oface · February 8, 2023

A number 5 overall pick. I keep remembering Tyler Jay (6), and Kohl Stewart (4). This time we traded for him, and he is now a hugh question mark, and heading that way.....

h2oface · February 8, 2023

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I followed, I just wanted to talk about Lewis and brag about one of the things I was finally right about!

Post of the month! 😇

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