Twins Continue to Load the Corners in 2020 Draft

Oddly enough, the 2020 draft picks seem to fit nicely with the rest of the Twins minor league organization. At first blush, it seemed too many bats and not enough arms.

I suspect that we did not know that MLB was going to give us an option of having a DH at all nine positions in the batting order. 

I'm wondering if some of the decision-making around this year's draft and going heavier on hitters might be some risk mitigation and belief that these hitters are more projectable?

It's an interesting draft. I have no objection to grabbing up college hitters and while there seems to be a belief that the team is well-stocked on corner OFs and 1B/DH types, it wasn't that long ago that we struggled to find a consistent option at DH and until Rosario/Kepler arrived we cycled through a lot of guys in the corners. Depth is good.

In baseball more than any other sport, I believe in drafting for talent over need because of the uncertainty with draft picks and the typical length of development. Hopefully, the Twins are evaluating well? The first round pick seems fine on talent/value. There seems to be some reasonable questions on the second rounder.

If Falvey and pitching coach Wes Johnson can develop consistent starting pitching, the Twins will be in elite shape.(Nash)

W/ Wes Johnson there is no doubt that he`ll squeeze out the best w/ what he has & produce some bottom (3-5) starting pitching. But shouldn`t we raise our sights a little higher? Aces are a premium, shouldn`t we shoot for that? I know pitching draft prospects are  high risk but college is a better risk that HS. W/ this large pool of potential college arms, the risk is smaller & is worth taking that risk IMO. 

w/ that said I still believe we doing a better job drafting than before

Aaron Gleeman's has a article in The Athletic on success of college first basemen drafted in the first round.

https://theathletic.com/1866545/2020/06/13/spencer-torkelson-aaron-sabato-and-mlbs-missing-college-first-basemen/

The first look isn't encouraging but I wonder if there is a hidden value. Is it more likely for a college 1B to have success in their early minor league career and get notice as a valued prospect? Some of these college first basemen returned valuable pieces in trade. CC Sabathia (La Porta), Matt Holliday (Wallace), Cliff Lee (Smoak) and Mat Latos (Alonso) were all pieces acquired in trades that included these bats. The four players all had multiple appearances on top 100 lists ranking as high as 23, 27, 13 and 33 respectively.

If you are a team that feels like you are in a competitive window the next 4 years trade assets like this have a lot of value at the trade deadline. Is there a hidden value here that the Twins are trying to leverage by drafting power hitting corner bats from college?

here is what Keith Law has to say on the Athletic:  UNC first baseman Aaron Sabato (1) is a draft-eligible sophomore who got himself into the first round with huge exit velocities and a brief track record of patience and power. He’s a below-average defender at first base, and there’s a good chance he ends up at DH, but he should have the bat to be valuable there. Alerick Soularie (2) is a young junior at Tennessee, turning 21 next month, who’s had success in the SEC despite an awkward swing that sees his back side collapse. He can’t play center and doesn’t project to the power for a corner. Marco Raya (4) is an undersized right-hander from Laredo, Texas, with average velocity from a high slot and a max-effort delivery. Kala’i Rosario (5), a high school outfielder from Hilo, Hawai’i, has big raw power and impressive bat speed, driving the ball well in spite of a very early stride and weight transfer, and if he hits enough to get to that power in games he’ll have a chance to be a regular in an outfield corner. Sabato could come up very quickly, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of upside here.

If Falvey and pitching coach Wes Johnson can develop consistent starting pitching, the Twins will be in elite shape.(Nash)

W/ Wes Johnson there is no doubt that he`ll squeeze out the best w/ what he has & produce some bottom (3-5) starting pitching. But shouldn`t we raise our sights a little higher? Aces are a premium, shouldn`t we shoot for that? I know pitching draft prospects are  high risk but college is a better risk that HS. W/ this large pool of potential college arms, the risk is smaller & is worth taking that risk IMO. 

w/ that said I still believe we doing a better job drafting than before

Not going to go in to detail as I already did in the wrap up thread, but the FO has a very logical approach to drafting pitchers IMO. But in short, history seems to indicate if you don't get a diamond at the beginning of the 1st round, your odds of drafting a quality or frontline SP later in the 1st is not much different than getting one later. And to be fair, the FO has drafted pitchers in the supplemental and 2nd rounds the past few years.

I don't doubt they will draft a 1st round pitcher again. And I again confess I was a little disappointed they didn't draft at least 1 college pitcher in a year in which arms seemed so, reportedly, prevelant. In fact, I'm more excited about the HS pitcher, Raya, than I am anyone else.

But it's obvious they look at history and analytics, follow their board, and believe that unless an arm falls to you that you truly love and believe in...at least early...take the position player and look for projectability in an arm and build and approach and at least ONE GREAT PITCH/ASPECT that you really like and build from there. I think we've also seen that in some of the trades they've made as well.

here is what Keith Law has to say on the Athletic:  UNC first baseman Aaron Sabato (1) is a draft-eligible sophomore who got himself into the first round with huge exit velocities and a brief track record of patience and power. He’s a below-average defender at first base, and there’s a good chance he ends up at DH, but he should have the bat to be valuable there. Alerick Soularie (2) is a young junior at Tennessee, turning 21 next month, who’s had success in the SEC despite an awkward swing that sees his back side collapse. He can’t play center and doesn’t project to the power for a corner. Marco Raya (4) is an undersized right-hander from Laredo, Texas, with average velocity from a high slot and a max-effort delivery. Kala’i Rosario (5), a high school outfielder from Hilo, Hawai’i, has big raw power and impressive bat speed, driving the ball well in spite of a very early stride and weight transfer, and if he hits enough to get to that power in games he’ll have a chance to be a regular in an outfield corner. Sabato could come up very quickly, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of upside here.

As you mention it, I found it very curious that Keith Law was so dismissive of Marco Raya, calling his delivery max-effort. All I have heard from the Twins officials are praises of said delivery. There seems to be a really big gap in their perception of him.

But of our picks I am most excited about Raya, too. The high spin rates, four pitch mix and easy delivery (will believe the Twins on that one) seem all very promising to me. And since he is not throwing triple digits at least the risk of needing TJ surgery is less.

I don't think the Twins are really taking what is already in the system into account, they just want the best players that fit their model for future success. There is no such thing as too much of one thing in a farm system, as there are always players who get hurt, don't pan out, or could even be traded as valuable assets. To me this is the best way to build a strong farm system.

Exactly!

This isn't the Vikings drafting 3 CB and 2 S because of holes and opportunity. This is drafting the best talent you can for 3-5yrs down the road. Which is why I can't bash anyone selected even though we all fall in love with power and pitching. We all love power, let's be honest. But we also love pitching, especially when the Twins have had big stretches WITHOUT developing internal pitching.

The OP is about "corner" depth. OK, let's look at that in regard to ML and milb depth.

3B: Donaldson is signed for 4yrs. Sano can also play here. No immediate need, even though the draft is not about immediate need. Miranda is a couple years away. No problem. Lewis could also be the answer as he could potentially play anywhere. Blakenhorn could be a factor here, but for whatever reason, the Twins don't seem interested in him trying to figure it out. (I'm still dumbfounded on this one). Javier, healthy one day and rocking, still has the potential to move here as well. (Kinda lost hope in Bechtold).

No immediate need for the next few years.

1B: There should be no need for a full time 1B for the next few years with Sano moving here, and moving in full support. And Donaldson could also shift here if necessary in a couple of years. Either could also be a primary DH. In the milb system, as it stands currently, Weil is probably the only true 1B worthwhile to speak of unless we drop down to rookie ball or convert someone to 1B primarily. To be fair there are options here.

(No immediate need here)

LF/RF: Kepler is entrenched. Rosario is good to very good but could be gone in a year. Kirilloff and Larnach seem to be very, very close. Rooker could be a factor here, or at 1B. Wallner COULD be good, but let's give him some time before we include him here. We have some very interesting CF options down on the farm, but even Celistino appears to be at least a year away. Unless someone converts full time to a corner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker are the immediate options.

(Minimal he'd here)

DH: Cruz is the man for 2020. He may or may not be the guy for 2021. After him? Any combination of Sano, Donaldson, Kirilloff or Larnach, not to mention a day off for Garver, or Blakenhorn if he grabs a spot, etc.

(Minimal need here)

So why anni rambling so much? 4 reasons:

1] I'm bored as he'll when it comes to baseball in 2020.

2] Despite the OP talking about "corners", 3B was left out.

3] Even leaving out 3B in the discussion, we are still talking about 5 position spots on tbe roster. We are talking LF/RF/1B/DH/4th-5th OF.

4] The recent draftee position players are all 2-4yrs away. That changes the complexion of things down the road doesn't it?

REALLY hoping our smart and analytic based FO and new found reputation for development and treating our milb players fairly will bring in a couple quality rookie college arms who will sign and want to be a part of this organization for that $20K.