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  • Twins 7, Padres 4: Correa’s Clutch Homer Sparks Late-Inning Rally


    Thiéres Rabelo

    The Twins snapped the three-game losing streak and evened the series against the Padres in San Diego behind a fantastic offensive display in the eighth inning, set in motion by a clutch two-run home run by Carlos Correa. Sonny Gray had a solid start, and the bullpen was mostly solid for four innings.

    Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 5 IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K (79 pitches, 52 strikes, 65.8%)
    Home Runs: Byron Buxton (26), Carlos Correa (13)
    Top 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (.187), Byron Buxton (.173) Sonny Gray (.147)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    2059199799_chart(1).png.9ec1e5476962de7cc9da49317485ec3f.png

    Both starting pitchers displayed dominance for the first portion of this game, especially San Diego’s Joe Musgrove. The former Pirate retired the first eight batters he faced and ten of the first eleven. Sonny Gray wasn’t just as sharp and got some vital help from a beautiful 6-4-3 double play turned in by the Twin defense in the second, which prevented a run from scoring later that same inning. San Diego struck first when Manny Machado hit a two-out solo home run in the third on a gorgeous swing, his eighteenth of the season.

    But it wouldn’t take long for the Twins to respond. In the top of the fourth, they almost tied the game when Carlos Correa crushed a fastball for a long foul ball that was just foul. Musgrove needed to do something to avoid that kind of contact, and he was almost successful at it against Byron Buxton, who fell behind 0-2 on two swinging strikes. But came the third pitch of the at-bat, he returned to his four-seamer, and Buxton got all of it. He obliterated that pitch (111.1 MPH exit velocity) for a game-tying solo shot.

    Gray didn’t show any signs that the home run he gave up affected him, as he pitched a perfect fourth with two strikeouts. But Musgrove came back for the fifth and had his shakiest inning in the game, allowing Minnesota to take its first lead of the series. Jose Miranda was hit by a pitch to lead off the inning, and he would end up scoring the go-ahead run after a Nick Gordon single and a Gilberto Celestino line drive to right. This could’ve been an even more productive inning for Minnesota, with two men on and the top of the lineup coming up, but Luis Arraez and Correa both struck out to end the inning.

    Gray delivered another solid scoreless frame in the fifth, pitching around a leadoff single to He-Seong Kim, and he was pulled from the game at 79 pitches. With today’s outing, he has back-to-back starts in which he allows one earned run or less for the first time since June 15. It’s a relief to see him perform this well against such a strong opponent, especially after a few rocky starts this month. Before today’s game, he had allowed three or more earned runs in four of his previous six games, which drove his season ERA to near four.

    Minnesota caught a huge break during the seventh inning. After a C.J. Abrams one-out single against Trevor Megill that broke an 0-for-8 skid for the Padres offense, left-fielder Jurickson Profar hit a hard groundball that would much likely tie the game or at least send Abrams to third. However, the ball hit second base umpire Jerry Layne, and Abrams was forced to stay at second base. Megill departed the game right away, and Griffin Jax came in to brilliantly get the final two outs of the inning.

    Correa’s home run sparks a five-run inning
    Arráez got his first hit of the day in the eighth inning with a one-out single to right. Correa would bat after him, having struck out in each one of his previous three at-bats. Just as the Fox commentators were talking about his possible “Golden Sombrero,” he crushed a 2-2 four-seamer up the middle for a 414-feet home run, making it 4-1 Minnesota.

    The Twins blitz continued. After a pitching change that brought Dinelson Lamet to pitch for the Padres, Correa’s homer was followed by a Buxton single (and a stolen base by him) and a Jorge Polanco walk. With only one out, Kyle Garlick grounded into a force out which was going to be a double play, but Abrams made a throwing error to first, allowing Buxton to score. Lamet couldn’t stop the bleeding, and two more runs would score on two hits. First, Miranda hit a long single to drive in Garlick and allow him to stretch it into second. Then, Gordon hit a long line drive to left that bounced and reached the seats, scoring Miranda on a ground rule double, making it 7-1 Minnesota.

    After Emilio Pagan, Megill, and Jax combined for two scoreless, Jhoan Duran cruised through the bottom of the eighth on eleven pitches. Then, despite the six-run lead, Tyler Duffey scared us all. He retired the first batter he faced at the bottom of the ninth, but gave up a walk and hit a batter in the next two at-bats. Then, Profar hit a three-run home run, keeping San Diego's hopes alive. Fortunately, Duffey was able to strike out Machado and induce a game-ending groundout against Eric Hosmer.

    What’s Next?
    The rubber game of the series is scheduled for tomorrow at 3:10 pm CDT. Dylan Bundy (5.02 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins, while Sean Manaea (4.33 ERA) gets the start for the Padres.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Duffey 25 0 0 0 28 53
    Moran 0 21 0 25 0 46
    Cano 0 46 0 0 0 46
    Cotton 0 33 0 13 0 46
    Duran 32 0 0 0 11 43
    Pagán 20 0 0 0 20 40
    Jax 12 0 0 0 11 23
    Smith 17 0 0 0 0 17
    Megill 0 10 0 0 7 17
     

     

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    11 hours ago, howeda7 said:

    In Rocco's defense, Duran was already warming up when it was 2-1 and once he's warmed up, they're going to use him. 

    And I entertained that thought, too! And that Baldy could be of the thought that Duran needs regular work to stay sharp, regardless of score, and a low leverage appearance would be good for his confidence and stress after the 32 pitch sketchy outing. (But that would be quite a different tact than leaving Ryan in to be demoralized….). I tried to defend Baldy in my internal dialogue.
     

    Duran had just started soft tossing when the score was already 4-1, and it was then immediately 5-1. Check out the replay of the game. He really hadn’t ramped up and committed until it was clear his weapons could be best utilized another day. Duran could have just soft tossed as the score quickly climbed to 6-1 and then 7-1 after a long at bat. Or sat down at 6-1. This is why I found no real defense for the decision. The good news is he looked great and only had to throw 11 sparkling pitches to set the goofy looking Padres down. 

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    57 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    I agree with not wearing out your starters, look at what the Padres did last night they are so dumb, Musgrove pitched 6 innings and 96 pitches and faced 23 batters, that kind of crazy usage will end up with him getting hurt and not being able to pitch in the playoffs, and not be 100% for his next start. /s

    I want to like your take, I really do.  But, if you look at these two pitchers, inning by inning...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=musgrjo01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=grayso01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng

    ... it is uncanny that Joe has been good this season for exactly one inning further into games than Sonny has.

    Our field staff knows something about their own players? That's unpossible! 185px-Images_%25282%2529.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

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    5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Go to the "News" page, tap the 2 line "hamburger" drop down menu, then select "Twins Resources." 

    There you'll find rosters.

    Actually, you can tap the hamburger menu from anywhere on the site. Or, if you click ‘Forums’, you will see all the links to those resources above the forum list

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    2 hours ago, chinmusic said:

    I vote for lessley. 

    Morneau's not that bad. But then, I'm Canadian, and perhaps biased.?

    Maybe I am just a vanilla Minnesotan at heart but I think I like Morneau the best as well.  Great insight on the hitter side.  Understands what the players are trying to do to win.  I just like his approach the best but can understand where others might not care for him as much.

    Still they seem to mix it up and I like Smally and several others as well but in the end I still think I like Morneau the best.

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    42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Like three positive comments in this thread about a win. 

    They have the 2nd worst pitching staff in baseball over the last month and they've been a sub .500 club struggling to tread water in an awful division since late May. How much good will are you expecting to find in some of these threads?

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    23 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    They have the 2nd worst pitching staff in baseball over the last month and they've been a sub .500 club struggling to tread water in an awful division since late May. How much good will are you expecting to find in some of these threads?

    Until they no longer lead the division, as weak as it is. Some think it’s a matter of time, and I can’t deny their reasoning on that, any more than I can deny the weaknesses of the team’s pitching. And it could be stated almost every game. But, despite that, the Twins are still leading the division. Even when they win, threads are filled with comments complaining, finding ways, sometimes creatively, to rip apart anything good, as if it’s a mirage we should all ignore. Some are genuinely constructive criticism, and those comments I appreciate. But most are just complaints to complain. That is a willing and purposeful choice, imo, and deserves some calling out as trolling.

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    6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Go to the "News" page, tap the 2 line "hamburger" drop down menu, then select "Twins Resources." 

    There you'll find rosters.

    Thanks - went there and found 1/2 of what I wanted.  I would like an IL list too. 

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    What is the Sano injury?  I hope they explain that it is temporarily blindness that does not let him see balls in the strikezone.  Has be become AAAA player - Joey Gallo and the Yankees just exposed what the value is in the old three outcomes ranks - and at least Gallo could field. 

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    21 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    What is the Sano injury?  I hope they explain that it is temporarily blindness that does not let him see balls in the strikezone.  Has be become AAAA player - Joey Gallo and the Yankees just exposed what the value is in the old three outcomes ranks - and at least Gallo could field. 

    Knee inflammation 

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    3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    Until they no longer lead the division, as weak as it is. Some think it’s a matter of time, and I can’t deny their reasoning on that, any more than I can deny the weaknesses of the team’s pitching. And it could be stated almost every game. But, despite that, the Twins are still leading the division. Even when they win, threads are filled with comments complaining, finding ways, sometimes creatively, to rip apart anything good. Some are genuinely constructive criticism, and those comments I appreciate. But most are just complaints to complain. That is a willing and purposeful choice, imo.

    I wouldn't call it weak, I still expect them to win the division when it's all said and done. In fairness that has a lot to do with how little faith I have in CHI or CLE getting their s*** together, but yeah, perspective is important. 

    Agreed, I see the low tier posts creeping into threads too, but there's some of the aforementioned perspective being lost if we're calling out a lack of positivity in single game threads right now.  

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    4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I agree w/ AJ that the way that Baldelli's handling of the bullpen is textbook for wearing out BP arms. But the solution isn't wearing out the rotation. Gray is fresh and ready to bounce back to pitch a great game his next game, not  approaching his next outing not 100%. 

    The solution is the balance of SP, long relief & short relief. Until then our pitching will like always have tired arms & injuries

    Five innings and 79 pitches doesn't even come close to "wearing out a rotation."

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    1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

    Until they no longer lead the division, as weak as it is. Some think it’s a matter of time, and I can’t deny their reasoning on that, any more than I can deny the weaknesses of the team’s pitching. And it could be stated almost every game. But, despite that, the Twins are still leading the division. Even when they win, threads are filled with comments complaining, finding ways, sometimes creatively, to rip apart anything good, as if it’s a mirage we should all ignore. Some are genuinely constructive criticism, and those comments I appreciate. But most are just complaints to complain. That is a willing and purposeful choice, imo, and deserves some calling out as trolling.

    The constant stream of complaints, even in victory, do make it hard for those of us who want to root for the team and enjoy watching them play to hang out here at times. I'd rather not spend time defending Rocco, the front office, the team (especially when I should be enjoying a win), but when almost every thread about the MLB club gets so negative so quickly, and game recaps are filled with posts basically saying the team won "in spite of X" (where X = whatever the poster finds most egregious about the team that day)...it's not fun. Especially when we're still in first!

    I'm super excited about Jose Miranda. He's really playing well and getting comfortable as a big-leaguer. I'm excited every time he takes an AB right now because I want to see what he can do. It would be awesome to have him as the every day 3B for the next 4-5 years.

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    4 hours ago, ashbury said:

    I want to like your take, I really do.  But, if you look at these two pitchers, inning by inning...

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=musgrjo01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=grayso01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng

    ... it is uncanny that Joe has been good this season for exactly one inning further into games than Sonny has.

    Our field staff knows something about their own players? That's unpossible! 185px-Images_%25282%2529.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

    Based on these stats, Gray shouldn't even be allowed to come out for the 5th, but if they do he should go 7?

     

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    1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    Based on these stats, Gray shouldn't even be allowed to come out for the 5th, but if they do he should go 7?

     

    I wouldn't go by a recipe, but there does seem food for thought there.  There's always the danger of small sample size.  Also, past the first couple of innings, you have to guard against a certain kind of bias in the data: if a pitcher is simply having a bad game, it may affect the innings he is in, but won't affect the innings after he's taken out.  So those later innings tend to carry an assumption that he's been doing reasonably well up to any given point.  A better statistician than I might have some tools to correct for that, I don't know.

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    2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    The constant stream of complaints, even in victory, do make it hard for those of us who want to root for the team and enjoy watching them play to hang out here at times. I'd rather not spend time defending Rocco, the front office, the team (especially when I should be enjoying a win), but when almost every thread about the MLB club gets so negative so quickly, and game recaps are filled with posts basically saying the team won "in spite of X" (where X = whatever the poster finds most egregious about the team that day)...it's not fun. Especially when we're still in first!

    I'm super excited about Jose Miranda. He's really playing well and getting comfortable as a big-leaguer. I'm excited every time he takes an AB right now because I want to see what he can do. It would be awesome to have him as the every day 3B for the next 4-5 years.

    Before today this team was 1 and 3 (now 1 and 4) and prior to that they were 3 and 3, with two of the wins against the Tigers and the 3 loses to the White Sox. That is is 4 - 7 in the last 11, but 2-7 against anybody not named the Tigers. So I can excuse people for their complaints when generally things haven't changed.

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    55 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    Is it okay to be skeptical

    I never really know what to think. While it is certainly ‘convenient’, I don’t think teams really do this. If they did, I would think there would be repercussions and the MLBPA would get involved, but I don’t really know. So, better to take it at face value, I guess

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    3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    Before today this team was 1 and 3 (now 1 and 4) and prior to that they were 3 and 3, with two of the wins against the Tigers and the 3 loses to the White Sox. That is is 4 - 7 in the last 11, but 2-7 against anybody not named the Tigers. So I can excuse people for their complaints when generally things haven't changed.

    Every thread? Even about winning games. Even in draft pick threads? Every thread. Over and over. Which is different than skeptical.... It's the constant complaining. 

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    While some complain all the time about basically every move and some of the same things over and over I think we need to remember this is a place for Twins fans to express their feelings.  People are expressing what they feel within the boundaries of the sites rules and while I get frustrated with some posters and some comments there are plenty of well thought out informative comments as well.  If the board was just the Twins are great and nothing else there wouldn't really be a need for a site like this.  Honestly there likely wouldn't be any sports fans then because essentially outcomes don't matter so who cares.

    Being a fan is about being emotional about your team.  You want "your team" to win and baseball is full of ups and downs and our emotions swing with each win and lose.  Each strike out or game winning HR.  That is what is most often expressed here.  Yes keep it clean and try to stay somewhat even keeled but emotions don't just run one way.  There is going to be some negativity and diverse opinions about ones favorite team.  Sure the best course of action is to stay positive but I guess I don't see a problem when posters have a different opinion or way of looking at things than I do even if it is negative.  That is the way they feel I respect it and move on to the next comment.

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    On 7/31/2022 at 12:24 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

    I agree with not wearing out your starters, look at what the Padres did last night they are so dumb, Musgrove pitched 6 innings and 96 pitches and faced 23 batters, that kind of crazy usage will end up with him getting hurt and not being able to pitch in the playoffs, and not be 100% for his next start. /s

    Musgrove is a different breed, a real work horse. Not too many are still around, he can  regularly handle those innings. We don't have anyone like him, as far as putting in the innings w/o repercussions,

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    On 7/31/2022 at 6:32 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Chief, I agree about questionable management. AJ Pierzynski was the color man on the mlb/tv game last night. AJ also questioned why Gray was not sent out for the 6th inning because the bullpen had been overworked already this year and Gray had had a good, short 5th inning.  AJ also said Gordan should have advanced to 3B instead of stopping at 2B on the Celestino hit to RF. He said there was now way he would have been thrown out. AJ criticized Pagan's errant throw to 1B, saying when you come in a game, you've got to be ready to play. I had not been an AJ fan, he is too abrasive for me. but AJ kept making really good points. I  did not watch the start of the game, so I did not know  who the color man was until late in the game. He also said Gordan may be wearing his pants above his knees in order to get more balls called on low pitches when he is batting. A really interesting point. All in all, AJ really show some keen baseball knowledge. I enjoyed his comments.

    Pierzynski is the best FOX national TV broadcast game analyst, right there with CJ Nitkowski. Smoltz needs to get the boot for the lead game of the week and the lead playoff series in favor of one of those two. Their insights are so valuable and entertaining.

    It feels like a long time since Mark Grace was a game analyst and AJ is the closest thing to him that I have ever heard. 

    Listening to John Smolts is like a half step improvement on Bert Blylevin. The baseball world deserves better. 

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    3 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

    Pierzynski is the best FOX national TV broadcast game analyst, right there with CJ Nitkowski. Smoltz needs to get the boot for the lead game of the week and the lead playoff series in favor of one of those two. Their insights are so valuable and entertaining.

    It feels like a long time since Mark Grace was a game analyst and AJ is the closest thing to him that I have ever heard. 

    Listening to John Smolts is like a half step improvement on Bert Blylevin. The baseball world deserves better. 

    I like AJ as well. Interesting, at the least. And smart, IMO, without trying to be.

    Kind of shocked to be writing this post, but there you go.

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