Trevor Megill Should Be Used in More High Leverage Spots

The Twins’ bullpen has been better than average this year. As a collective unit, they rank seventh in MLB in bullpen WPA with 1.55 wins added. However, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Smith have combined for 3.06 wins added. The rest of the Twins’ bullpen has been worth -1.51 wins. This is primarily due to Tyler Duffey, who has a WPA of -1.32, which is fifth-worst among all major league relievers in 2022. In the major leagues, you can’t just throw the same three bullpen arms every night, so the Twins need to find another bullpen arm that they could use in high leverage situations. Enter Trevor Megill.

Megill, who the Twins signed on a minor league deal right before the lockout, has been good in limited innings this year in the bullpen. In ten and ⅔ innings, Megill has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He has struck out 13 hitters, seven with the fastball and six with the curveball. Megill has some of the best stuff on the Twins, and there is data to back that up.

Megill’s fastball averages 97.1 miles per hour, which places him in the 95th percentile of all major league pitchers. His fastball also has incredible spin, as his fastball spin rate is 2424 revolutions per minute, which places him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers. Using Pitch Profiler, a tool created by Jeremy Maschino, you can view any major league pitcher and various statistics about their pitch mix.

One important metric that many people are starting to use to evaluate a pitcher’s repertoire is Stuff+. Stuff+ gives a pitcher a rating of how good a pitcher’s repertoire is compared to the rest of the league. This rating is based on a variety of things such as pitch velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, arm angle, and release extension. Megill has a Stuff+ rating of 108, putting him in the 78th percentile of all major league pitchers. The average Stuff+ rating is 100, which means Megill’s stuff is eight percent better than the league average. Using Maschino’s tool, Megill’s stuff+ rating on his fastball is 108, meaning he has an above league average fastball in terms of velocity and movement.

Megill’s curveball is also an outstanding pitch. According to Baseball Savant, Megill’s curveball has seven more inches of vertical movement than the league average curveball does, good for tenth among all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs. According to Pitch Profiler, Megill’s curveball has a 107 stuff+ rating, which means he has two pitches above league average.

A pitcher’s stuff can only take him so far. A pitcher can have good stuff and fail to get outs. Take former Twin Brusdar Graterol, who has a stuff+ rating of 116, in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. His sinker is 99.9 miles per hour, second among all pitchers. However, this doesn’t lead to success, as Graterol has a 4.81 ERA and 3.84 FIP.

In Megill’s limited opportunities, he has allowed only three runs in ten and ⅔ innings for an ERA of 2.53, as I noted earlier. Sometimes a pitcher’s success in small samples can be due to luck, but not with Megill. This year, his expected ERA is 2.04, which is the fourteenth-best in the league among pitchers who have allowed at least 25 balls in play. On his fastball, Megill has allowed an expected opponent batting average of .153, which is the best on the Twins. On the curveball, he has allowed a minuscule expected batting average of .196. 

Between having well above league-average stuff and producing very well in the opportunities he has been given, Trevor Megill should be given more opportunities in high leverage situations here soon, especially as the Twins start to play a more challenging schedule.

What other relievers should be given big innings down the stretch? How do you feel about Trevor Megill? Leave a comment or any other questions you may have below, and feel free to start a discussion.

Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!