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This five-point scoring system runs on five factors: player, projection, availability, expected cost, and viability: higher score = a better target for the Twins.
THE FIVE FACTORS
PLAYER: How has the player performed? How much of a difference would they make for the Twins?
PROJECTION: Is there an upside with this player? Is there team control beyond this year? Are there injury concerns?
AVAILABILITY: Is the player actually on the trade block?
EXPECTED COST: What will it take to acquire this player, in prospect capital and dollars?
VIABILITY: What’s the leaguewide desire for this player? Would the Twins have a chance in a bidding war?
Let’s move on to a former ace in Angels’ starter Noah Syndergaard.
PLAYER
Syndergaard, 29, was a popular trade target for Twins fans at the 2019 deadline when the team was in winning position and needed quality starters. The situation is the same in 2022, but Syndergaard isn’t.
Once a firebreather, Syndergaard’s velocity is way down after Tommy John surgery. He’s primarily sinker/slider against righties, with his fastball averaging 94 mph and his slider 83. The stuff is down, but righties are hitting just .232/.282/.369 off him this year. He can still get outs.
Syndergaard is not a surefire game-one starter he once was. He may not even be a playoff-caliber starter, with a 4.00 ERA and 19% strikeout rate. He could provide stability to the Twins’ rotation and slot in as a solid No. 3 or 4 who could eat up innings.
PLAYER SCORE: 2
PROJECTION
It feels like the upside on Syndergaard is limited. It’s unlikely he regains his velocity in the second half of a season coming off arm surgery, and he’ll probably need workload maintenance. He’s on a one-year deal, so any value the Twins get will be in his handful of starts after the deadline.
If there were a sense Syndergaard was returning to prior form, he would be a much more intriguing target. His average fastball velocity in July is 93.4 mph, down over a tick from his average of 94.6 in April. It’s a similar story with his slider, where he’s lost nearly two MPH on its average velocity since the opening month.
Syndergaard knows how to pitch and has reinvented himself with diminished stuff. You can probably count on a league-average ERA if he's healthy. That doesn’t entirely move the needle, but his projection down the stretch is fairly gloomy.
PROJECTION SCORE: 1
AVAILABILITY
Poor Angels fans. Once again, with two of the best players in MLB history, the Angels are an embarrassment. They signed Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal to compete. Instead, they’re likely to sell at the deadline.
The Angels don’t have many clear trade candidates. They constantly operate as a contender but fail to play like one. Ryan Tepera may become available, or even someone like Jared Walsh, but their most likely trade involves Syndergaard.
AVAILABILITY SCORE: 5
EXPECTED COST
Unlike Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, Syndergaard will cost more money than he will in prospects. Any acquiring team should assume the remaining ~$10 million on Syndergaard’s 2022 contract. There’s quite simply no reason for the Angels to keep him.
Finding a buyer’s market on a starting pitcher is out of the ordinary, but I believe that’s the case with Syndergaard. Given his health concerns, mediocre performance, and remaining salary, one could wonder how many teams will be interested.
Syndergaard was once one of the premier starters in the game. Teams would’ve lined up to trade for him just a few years ago. Now, you can probably get him for a medium-level prospect.
COST SCORE: 5
VIABILITY
This feels like a Twins move. It’s a buy-low opportunity that won’t cost the farm. If the Twins choose a mid-level approach, where they acquire a few relievers and mid-rotation starter, Syndergaard fits that mold. We have yet to see this Twins regime sell out for anybody at the deadline.
Top-of-the-line contenders like the Yankees and Astros will likely look elsewhere. That could provide an opportunity for the Twins to scoop up Syndergaard for very little in prospect capital. Of course, Syndergaard is not close to the level of Castillo, Montas, or Tyler Mahle.
VIABILITY SCORE: 4
Syndergaard is far from flashy, and he's not a guarantee to remain healthy and effective down the stretch, With the Twins' shaky rotation, he may be worth the low risk.
FINAL SCORE: 17
What do you think about Noah Syndergaard? Comment below!
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