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The 2022 season was a characteristic one for Max Kepler: solid yet underwhelming. He was a fairly valuable overall player, posting 2.0 fWAR thanks primarily to his elite defense in right field. His offense, as usual, was suppressed by a debilitatingly low BABIP as opposing defenses suffocated him with the shift.
There's encouraging news on that front, which could enhance Kepler's marketability. But more on that shortly. The bottom line is that, even if his luster has largely worn off in the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler IS a quality asset with appeal to many contending teams in need of a lefty corner outfield bat.
There are several such clubs, and one of the best ways to identify them is by following who is pursuing (and missing out on) free agents that share the same profile. 
Among them: the Seattle Mariners.
There are a few different reasons the Mariners stand out to me as a logical trade partner for the Twins and Kepler. The first is that their general manager is Jerry Dipoto, one of the most prolific wheelers and dealers on the GM circuit. Trade speculation is always valid when Jerry's involved.
Seattle's specific situation also frames them as a practical landing spot for Kepler. The M's got horrible production from both outfield corners in 2022, and it was one of the biggest flaws on a 90-win team that made the playoffs but couldn't push deep.
Mitch Haniger's injury-plagued year put right field in limbo for Seattle, while Jesse Winker was a defensive disaster and mediocre bat in left. Haniger's now gone, with Teoscar Hernandez acquired from Toronto to replace his powerful right-handed bat. It still seems as though Dipoto and Seattle are still seeking another lefty-hitting outfielder to complement Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, as illustrated by their reported pursuit of Brandon Nimmo (who re-signed with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi. 
The Mariners are looking for assurance and Kepler offers it. He's been worth two or more Wins Above Replacement in every full season of his career. Entering his age-30 season, he's a safe bet to at least be a solid fixture and a big upgrade over what the Mariners had last year. The new defensive shifting limitations, along with the outfielder's stellar Statcast measurables, could hint at legitimate upside.
Kepler's contract situation – one more guaranteed season at $8.5 million with a 2024 team option at $10 million – is part of what I see as making him attractive to Seattle specifically. They have a pair of top prospects who happen to be lefty-swinging outfielders: Jarred Kelenic (23) and Taylor Trammell (25). Both have struggled to turn the corner in the majors, but its too early to give up on either.
And by following this route, the Mariners wouldn't need to. The flexible control over Kepler's next two seasons enables Seattle to keep the door open for both, while gaining reliable veteran stability as they push to take the next step in the interim.
From Minnesota's perspective, what makes Seattle an intriguing partner is their abundance of young pitching. In addition to veteran stalwarts Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, the Mariners had three different pitchers 27 and under in 2022 who made 25+ starts with an ERA of 3.73 or lower (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen).
Kirby or Gilbert would likely not be on the table unless Minnesota offered significantly more than Kepler. But Flexen seems attainable, if not one of Seattle's many relief arms or mid-tier prospects. 
 
What do you think? Which teams strike you as the best trade partners for Kepler, and what would a realistic return look like? 

As the longest-tenured Twins player—he rubbed elbows with Kendrys Morales while sipping his cup of coffee in 2014—Polanco’s presence provided continuity during the great team overhaul following 2016. Rather than start from scratch, the new decision-makers earmarked Polanco (and Max Kepler) as answers to the problem, not sources of the malady, and both players signed extensions before the 2019 season.
Polanco represents the best and worst of Twins position players under the Falvey regime: a skilled OBP and power threat with a worrisome lack of defensive ability whose nagging injuries have capped his upside. His .272/.339/.455 slash line since 2018 makes him the envy of the middle infield ball—those players have hit for a collective .257/.318/.409 over the same period. Yet, despite a move to an easier position, defensive stats remain unamused with Polanco’s glove, constantly ranking him as a poor defender. 
Looking around the league, that style of position-less player has fallen out of fashion; the Houston Astros employ a litany of two-way stars who can hit as well as they can field, and the Dodgers only sign a player if they can catch, man shortstop, glide in the outfield, and announce in a pinch if Joe Davis catches a cold. Yordan Álvarez is an exception, but teams tend to ignore fielding gaffes when you’re hitting at a near Bondsian level. 
Despite the defensive issues, Polanco’s contract helps buoy his value. That deal from 2019 remains in effect, and assuming that a team will jump at the opportunity to pick up his $12 million club option for 2025, he is effectively good for three years of control at $30 million. That’s an attractive price tag. A team like like the Cubs might happily deal quality prospects or equivalent major-league talent to net Polanco’s offensive consistency for just $10 million a season.
In what we could call “The Edouard Julien Influence,” the Twins may already have a major-league-caliber starter waiting in the wings. Julien spent his 2022 regular season smoking pitches at AA before finding an extra gear in the Arizona Fall League, ramping up his batting to lead the whole darn league in OPS (1.249). Yes, that number is correct. He also stole six bases without a misstep, just for giggles. Minnesota understood his value and added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from other conniving teams in the Rule-5 draft. Julien’s glove is as detrimental as Polanco’s, which negates the previous defensive argument, but his bat has a good chance at reaching the same plateau.
Or, just as well, the Twins could move Luis Arraez back to his original position, ending the hilarious adventures in having a 5' 10" first baseman with 14 career home runs.
The savings matter. Re-signing Carlos Correa—beyond being the right move—eats up a significant portion of the theoretical payroll cap, enough to make squeezing in a Carlos Rodón type impossible. If the Twins want both a star shortstop and a starting pitcher better than Matt Shoemaker, they need to diligently purge their books, and the Gio Urshela trade does not create enough leeway.
It would be a tough move; few enjoy seeing an old friend go, especially when they are still productive, but Minnesota needs to engage in ruthless efficiency if they want to move forward into the highest tier of teams.

The Twins Spring Training Complex in Ft. Myers was one of many locations in Lee County that suffered damages from the landfall of Hurricane Ian on September 28. 
Fortunately, the Lee County Sports Complex suffered minimal damage, with some water intrusion that has already been repaired and ballpark cosmetics. What damages the complex did suffer have either been renovated or are nearly close to full renovations as the Twins expect to reopen the doors to the complex on Monday, December 5. 
The damages of Hurricane Ian’s impact on southwest Florida are still visible to visitors today though as the beaches in Fort Myers are still bearing scars of the storm. 
“My wife and I drove down there during the first week of November and it was about 35 days after the hurricane,” said Matt Hoy, Senior Vice President of Operations for the Twins. “I've stayed on Fort Myers Beach every year for spring training for the last 30 years. And seeing the damage we immediately started crying, it was devastating. You don't realize the magnitude of the destruction until you see it with your own eyes.”
With only minor damages to the complex and less than a mile from Lee County hospital. The Twins organization offered up the complex as a staging ground for first responders in the two months to follow Hurricane Ian’s landfall. 
“It was an amazing display of resources that were set up on-site there. We're a member of this community, and we want to make sure that we help in any way we can. So anytime there's an emergency like this, we tell first responders, you guys do what you need to do, and utilize the facility accordingly,” said Hoy. 
John Vittas, Broadcasting and Media Relations Director for the Twins Low-A affiliate the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels, spent time helping evacuate the complex before Hurricane Ian’s impact on Lee County.
Following the storm damage, Vittas and many other Mighty Mussels and Twins employees in the area immediately volunteered their time to World Central Kitchen as the non-profit set up base in the player development complex. 
“I personally put in some hours with World Central Kitchen and helping a few friends in the area, some of the Mussels employees took it upon themselves to put in 40-plus hours per week. That type of commitment should definitely be recognized. The love and assistance that volunteers showed to those affected in our area was truly inspiring,” said Vittas.
While the Twins player development complex was used as a staging ground for first responders and World Central Kitchen. The Twins prospect mini-camps for the fall were moved to Target Field.
Pitchers and catchers still have over two months before they start reporting to Lee County for spring training, but Twins fans are already making plans for their annual spring training trips. Vittas says Twins fans can expect the immediate area around Hammond Stadium to look “completely recognizable and just as sunny and vibrant as always.”
The beaches are a different story. 
Vittas said, “Various organizations are working hard to restore the beaches back to their original state, but that will take time. Some Fort Myers beaches may be available to visitors by February, but I’d imagine the traffic and finding space will be challenging. Twins fans could look into using beaches in the Venice/Sarasota area or further up the coast.”
The assistance from the Twins organization to Hurricane Ian relief efforts will not be stopping any time soon as Vittas shared the Mighty Mussels front office plans to honor first responders of Hurricane Ian during the 2023 season. 
“We are looking into several ways to honor first responders and to help fundraise for the communities most affected. The community has always been the largest pillar of Minor League Baseball, and it’s times like these that Minor League teams can truly make a positive impact,” said Vittas.
If Twins fans would like to contribute to Lee County recovery efforts that are still in place, they can make donations on the Lee County government website at the Hurricane Ian Relief Fund.

TwinsFest, the team’s annual fan convention, was canceled in 2021 and 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 
“We are absolutely thrilled to welcome Twins Territory back to Minneapolis for our first in-person TwinsFest in three years, while introducing some fresh elements to bring our fans even closer to their favorite Twins players and personalities in new and exciting ways,” said Twins President & CEO Dave St. Peter.
Friday, January 27, features a new event called TwinsFest Live!, which the team deems an “exclusive, intimate, and entertainment-filled evening with Twins players, coaches, alumni and broadcasters” located at The Fillmore, a concert venue adjacent to Target Field. A “limited availability” of tickets will be sold in General Admission, All-Star, and MVP packages, each level with increasing benefits and access. Tickets for the General Admission level start at $35 and the All Star and MVP Packages cost $149 and $279, respectively, and go on sale December 8. All proceeds benefit the Minnesota Twins Community Fund.
“Signature Saturday” is TwinFest's standard convention event and takes place on January 28 from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at Target Field. It will feature the return of autograph stations with current and former Twins players, coaches, alumni and broadcasters; interactive games; memorabilia displays; and a merchandise “Yard Sale.” Adult admission tickets are $20 and tickets for children 12 and under are $10. The Twins will also be hosting a youth Futures Clinic at Urban Ventures. 
As recently as 2020, autographs were available at TwinsFest both Friday and Saturday nights at its traditional convention format. TwinsFest Live! is designated as a non-autograph event, per its website. 
TwinsFest began in 1989 and, at its peak, drew almost 35,000 fans to the Metrodome. Because Target Field is an outdoor stadium and TwinsFest takes place in the middle of the frigid Minnesota winter, the Twins utilize the stadium’s indoor areas, like their club level, for the fest, so since then, attendance has been about half of the amount of its Metrodome heyday. Twinsfest pared down from three days, Friday-Sunday, to two in 2020.
My take
While I am glad that TwinsFest is returning this year (looking at you, White Sox) and it signals one more step towards perceived normalcy, I do not entirely blame fans who might find themselves a bit disappointed in looking at the weekend’s events, which in reality, are only two days (and only one day of the traditional, revered convention). While I’m sure those in attendance of TwinsFest Live! will find the event unique and enjoyable, the high price point and limited quantity of tickets will likely make it out of reach for many. Plus, with its 7 p.m.- 10 p.m. timeframe, talk of a "cash bar," and lack of seating for General Admission tickets, it does not seem geared toward families. 
Regarding Signature Saturday, growing up, some of my fondest memories and formative experiences as a Twins fan were at TwinsFest. My older sister was so Twins-crazy as a teenager that she recalls going all three days. While all the other experiences at the festival are great, the most coveted of all is the player autographs and photo opportunities. In my family’s living room, we have a framed photograph of our entire family with Harmon Killebrew at TwinsFest. (Yes, he was every bit as kind, classy, and friendly as everyone says; my mom still talks about that meeting to this day). I remember my family also having a long, probably 10-minunte conversation with former Cleveland pitcher Bob Feller. With only one 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. day of the actual convention (and very limited hours at that- it seems it should go until at least 8 p.m.) it is not hard to imagine that lines for players might be long and overwhelming and that when fans do meet the players and coaches, it will have to be brief. 
Some on social media were less than impressed with the number of current players listed on TwinsFest's bill and noted it is less than in past years like 2020, but the TwinsFest page states to “check back often for updates" on players, so it seems too early to judge (Correa TwinsFest appearance post-contract, anyone?) Regardless, I am happy that TwinsFest is back for 2023 and especially hope that the team’s littlest fans have as fun of an experience as I did, but I worry just how family-friendly the event is becoming. 
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Do you think you'll attend TwinsFest in 2023? What do you think of the two-day schedule and revamped events? Let us know in a comment below, 
 

Kyle Farmer is, to be kind, an obscure baseball presence. A former catcher, raised in the blue-blood Dodgers farm system—something he has in common with his Twins garlicky brother in Kyle—Farmer’s major league impact has been a ripple, not a wave. There was the time he walked off the Giants in his major league debut, but two full seasons OPSing at a below-average rate with the Reds doesn’t place you on many radars. At least, not worthwhile ones. At a cursory glance, the Twins may have sent away Gio Urshela just to acquire an older, cheaper, and slightly worse Gio Urshela. 
But that narrative sells Farmer short; his OPS over the past two seasons is nearly bang-on league average for a shortstop (.716 for Farmer, .714 for the league), while, at least in 2021, Statcast’s OAA measure clocked Farmer as one of the finest glovemen at his position, crediting him with six outs above average while handling shortstop. That placed him as the 9th-best fielding shortstop that year. His defense in 2022 was not as sparkling, though, and which Farmer the Twins will receive defensively appears to be an open question—one made murkier with shift-aided success in 2021. 

With new rules limiting where infielders are allowed to stand, those bonus outs to the right of 2nd base will no longer exist; whether Farmer can regain his form at the traditional shortstop position will be up to him. 

His bat, however, has remained consistent, especially against lefties. As the great Tom Froemming has pointed out, Farmer is infield Kyle Garlick, pillaging southpaw villages while leaving fire and rubble in his wake. Lefties loathed facing Farmer, allowing a .948 OPS against him in 2022, a significant step up from his already hefty career line of .288/.345/.492 against them. The Twins, as pointed out by this author, have struggled against lefties since the 2019 season; any extra boost rounds out the team offensively. 
The debate now focuses on where he fits on the team. While he could technically start as the everyday shortstop, a certain 28-year-old Puerto Rican is the preferred target of Twins fans. The Great Carlos Correa Question remains unanswered, and until his pen touches paper once again, the Twins’ shortstop position will operate with split-pea soup haziness.
It’s unlikely that the team will open business in late March with Farmer as the starting shortstop; instead, this author guesses he will operate as a super-utility infielder focusing on playing against lefties. Farmer has played every position in the infield—indeed, that means every position—and even subbed in for four frames in the outfield. The Twins lack a player in that mold, especially one who has flashed an ability to hold down shortstop at an exceptional level. 
But who knows? The Twins relish acquiring baseline players early to set up bigger splashes later. Trying to guess Farmer’s roster contribution in November is like being a stockbroker in 1929. More moves will fill in the roster, creating a much clearer picture, but for now, the Twins appear to have a helpful infielder who can mash lefties, something they have needed for years.
 

Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach both made top-100 prospect lists on their way to the big leagues. Minnesota expected both players to be in the middle of the order for the next decade. Over the last 12 months, Matt Wallner has put himself on the prospect map, and he may have altered the team’s future outfield outlook. 

Alex Kirilloff
2022 Stats (45 G): .250/.290/.361 (.651), 7 2B, 3 HR, 36 K, 5 BB
Kirilloff’s 2022 season was plagued by a wrist injury that eventually required surgery. Each of his first two seasons has been cut short because of a wrist injury. His wrist surgery this season is unique in the fact that they are shortening his ulna, which is something that few MLB players have had done. Kirilloff showed signs of being able to play through the injury as he dominated at Triple-A with a 1.106 OPS in 35 games. Eventually, he wasn’t able to play through the injury.  

"Any time you're talking about shaving a bone down or shortening a bone, I mean that's a substantial procedure," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "But we're hopeful that by getting it done now gives us a chance to use the offseason to get right, to start swinging the bat again, to feel good and to start getting ready for next year."

Minnesota hopes Kirilloff is ready for the start of spring training, but there is no guarantee with this type of surgery. Out of these players, Kirilloff was seen as the best prospect, because Baseball America and MLB.com had him in their top-15 prospects leading into the 2019 campaign. Entering his age-25 season, questions will continue to follow him regarding his wrist and whether or not he can get his career back on track. 

Trevor Larnach
2022 Stats (51 G): .231/.306/.406 (.712), 13 2B, 5 HR, 57 K, 18 BB
Like Kirilloff, injuries have impacted Larnach’s first two seasons in the majors. Last year, he posted an .806 OPS through his first 50 games, but things went south. His OPS dropped to .672 before the team eventually demoted him to Triple-A. He eventually revealed that a hand injury had bothered him through part of the season. 

Larnach started the 2022 season well and was one of the team’s best hitters during May as he posted a 1.077 OPS. By the end of June, his performance had suffered and the team announced he’d undergo a bilateral surgical repair to treat the core muscle strain. At the time, the team announced that he’d need about 6-8 weeks before returning, but he learned that he needed more time to recover.  

“You learn really quick that that’s not really even reasonable, especially for a professional athlete trying to play at their highest level,” Larnach said. “It wasn’t really relevant to me. I had to take a step back to look at what I needed to do to feel really good. I did that, and I learned a lot from it."

During his rehab with the Saints, Larnach suffered a wrist injury that will end his season. He seemed close to returning, so this is likely a frustrating end for the 24-year-old. He has been limited to 130 games in his first two seasons, and injuries have stopped him from producing like he did in the minors. 

Matt Wallner
2022 Stats (AA/AAA 128 G): .277/.412/.542 (.953), 32 2B, 4 3B, 27 HR, 170 K, 97 BB 
Unlike Larnach and Kirilloff, Wallner is coming off a tremendous season where he played well in the upper minors and made his big-league debut. In 128 minor league games, Wallner posted a .953 OPS on his way to being named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. Kirilloff (2018) and Larnach (2019) were both previous winners of this award, but Wallner’s stock is on the rise. He’s seen limited action at the big-league level, but he has been on base over 30% of the time and three of his eight hits have been for extra bases. 

Wallner used last year’s Arizona Fall League to make adjustments for the 2022 season. “It’s just cool to bounce ideas off different guys and strategies that they have going into the game, at the plate, in the field, whatever,” Wallner said during last year’s AFL. “I’ve definitely learned a lot since I’ve been out here, even in a short six weeks. So, it’s definitely been good for me.”

All three outfielders will be entering their age-25 season in 2023. Kirilloff and Larnach were seen as better prospects in the minors with both making top-100 lists before debuting. Now, Wallner may have passed them by, especially with the injury concerns facing the other two outfielders. There's no question that Minnesota’s future line-up is better with all three bats being healthy and hitting in the middle of the order. 

Do you think Wallner has passed Kirilloff and Larnach this season? Will all three players be able to stay healthy in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Twins are finishing a terrible September that saw the team go from contender to pretender in a few weeks. There are plenty of reasons for fans to be frustrated, but the season's conclusion offers time to reflect on the 2022 campaign. Here are the people most responsible for the Twins' downfall this season. 

Culprit 1: The Front Office
The front office will take the brunt of the blame for any team that falls short of its ultimate goal. Last off-season was unique because of the lockout, and Minnesota took a unique approach to construct the roster. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine thought the pitching pipeline was ready to contribute in 2022, so the team didn't need to acquire any of the best free agent pitchers. This plan failed as the team's farm system took a step back, and the pitching pipeline has yet to arrive. 

It's also easy to blame the front office for some of the prominent players the team acquired during the 2022 season. Minnesota traded Taylor Rogers shortly before Opening Day for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. The timing of the trade was terrible, even if Rogers ended up having a poor season. Paddack was terrific for four games before needing Tommy John surgery. Pagan has been one of baseball's worst relievers for multiple seasons, and the team continued to use him in high-leverage situations. 

Minnesota's front office received praise following July's trade deadline because it seemed like the team was "going for it." Neither of the other AL Central teams made significant moves, and the Twins acquired Tyler Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and Michael Fulmer. Mahle has struggled with a shoulder injury since being acquired, and Lopez hasn't lived up to his All-Star performance from the first half. Mahle's acquisition might be the most frustrating as he added his name to a growing list of injured pitchers the Twins acquired via trade. 

In the end, the front office was wrong about the organization's young pitchers being ready to contribute. Falvey and Levine didn't address the bullpen in the offseason, which haunted the team. It cost the team multiple prospects at the trade deadline after the club had already been treading water for most of June and July. Now, the front office is facing a critical offseason as this current group's winning window is closing. 

Culprit 2: Rocco Baldelli 
Minnesota's front office gave Baldelli a vote of confidence over the weekend when they said he is part of the team's long-term plans. Fans may still blame the manager for the team's poor performance for multiple months. Obviously, he has been dealing with one of baseball's most injured rosters, but the team doesn't seem to have much fight left in them. Last season, the team was out of the race for much of the season, but the club played well in September as younger players got an opportunity. This year's team played its worst baseball in September. Sometimes it's easy to forget that preseason models projected this team to finish around .500. 

Pitching staff usage is one of the most significant areas where fans blame a manager. Many will point fingers at Baldelli for his bullpen usage or for pulling his starters too early. However, it is also essential to consider that the team lost its pitching coach in the middle of the season. Minnesota's bullpen was terrible, and there is only so much Baldelli can do with the players on the roster. Also, Twins starters were rarely allowed to face a line-up for the third time, a philosophy many organizations have adopted in recent years. Baldelli deserves some blame, but even baseball's best manager wouldn't have won with Minnesota this season.

Culprit 3: Injuries
It's easy for anyone looking at the Twins' 2022 season to blame injuries for the team's poor performance. No American League team has put more players on the IL than the Twins this season. At one point, Minnesota had nearly a full roster of players on the IL, and it was a team that could be reasonably competitive in the AL Central. The Reds are the only club with more days lost to injury than the Twins, but anyone following the team knows that number doesn't tell the whole story. 

Minnesota allowed many players to stay off the IL even when injuries hampered their performance. Bryon Buxton talked his way out of multiple IL stints, and there were stretches where he struggled on the field. Jorge Polanco tried to play through an injury, Tyler Mahle made two starts at less than 100%, and Max Kepler played through a broken toe. Few organizations have the depth to withstand the number of injuries the Twins suffered in 2022. 

Reflecting on a season that started with renewed expectations can be challenging. However, there is plenty of blame to go around as the season winds to a close. Who deserves the most blame for the Twins' failures in 2022? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

So: the front office. They've had more than their fair share of missteps, and it's natural to focus on underwhelming acquisitions like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Emilio Pagán. But there's a dirty little secret: their two biggest moves of the offseason paid off handsomely.
Minnesota traded its best young pitching prospect for a frontline starter in Sonny Gray to stabilize the top of the rotation in the absence of José Berríos. Gray, despite missing time on a few occasions, came through with an excellent season, posting a 3.08 ERA over 119.2 IP while leading all Twins pitchers in fWAR (2.4).
By investing modestly in pitching and clearing out Josh Donaldon's salary, the Twins were able to acquire the top free agent on the market late in the offseason. That move also has been successful – Carlos Correa has put together a customarily excellent year, leading the team overall in fWAR (4.1) while slashing .289/.365/.468 through 128 games. 
True to his rep, Correa's been stepping up his production here in the stretch run. The idea was that those contributions would be meaningful because he'd be melding with a greater veteran core to lead the charge for a contending team. Correa wasn't supposed to carry the load single-handedly, as he mostly has been throughout the second half. He was supposed to be combining powers with the likes of Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers.
Among position players who are still here, those five led all Twins in fWAR between 2020 and 2021. They are homegrown talents the organization has been cultivating for many years. Three are under long-term contracts – the only extensions this front office has handed out to inherited players from the previous regime. All are in the heart of their prototypical primes, with ages ranging from 25 to 29. 
These were the building blocks. They've earned that standing. 
And you know what? The plan was working for a while. As recently as July 13th, the Twins were eight games above .500 at 49-41, and 4 ½  games up in the AL Central. By that point, the five players mentioned above had combined to be worth 10.3 fWAR, and the first two – Buxton and Arraez – were days away from appearing in their first All-Star Game.
Since then, the Twins have gone 25-38, with all five combining for 1.6 fWAR in well over a third of the season. That includes 1.2 fWAR from Buxton, who somehow managed to put up .275/.370/.513 in 23 more games before succumbing to his knee and hip injuries – meaning the other four franchise staples have collectively been barely above replacement level over a prolonged stretch of the season where the team experienced a 15-game freefall in the standings.
What more is there to say? Yes, injuries are the main headline of this season and they certainly played a big role in the drop-off from this group, but all that aside: the core came up woefully short when it counted most. Again. So the question is: where do we go from here? 
The front office's strategy was structured around supplementing this tenured nucleus to make a push in 2022-23, while waiting for the next wave – Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee – to hopefully take center stage. But none of those players can really be counted on heading into 2023, for various reasons, so the Twins might need to consider making some short-term adjustments.
Max Kepler stands out as the clearest candidate to be displanted. He presents quite the conundrum, under contract for one more year at $8.5 million (with a $10 million team option for 2024). 
On the one hand, he was clearly one of the single biggest culprits in the Twins' implosion, slashing a Sandy Leon-esque .179/.241/.226 since the All-Star break with a negative WPA.
Despite showing flashes of greatness at times, Kepler has made a habit out of not showing up for the Twins when they need him. He's a career .056 hitter in the playoffs, with one hit in 18 at-bats. He's been at his absolute worst this year when the team has been forced to rely on him heavily amidst a barrage of injuries. 
On the other hand, Kepler still has undeniably intriguing traits. He remains an elite defensive right fielder. Before completely unraveling in the second half, he appeared to be on his way to an excellent year, pacing the team in fWAR with 1.6 for the first two months. It's reasonable to think that the new defensive shifting limitations will be positive for his hitting results. 
And even here in what's clearly been the worst season of his career from a production standpoint ... Kepler's measurables via Statcast are still really, really good:

Personally I feel ready to move on from Kepler despite all of the above, especially with Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner all on hand as promising young RF options. The $8.5 million owed to Kepler could be better used elsewhere, and perhaps he'd benefit from a change of scenery as his game stagnates here in Minnesota.
The redeeming qualities of his profile make it likely that some team will be open to taking on Kepler and his relatively favorable contract. The Twins might actually be able to get some value in return, although the 29-year-old's bottomed-out stock position doesn't help. 
Odds of Kepler being traded this offseason could probably be set at around 50:50. Everyone else is much less likely to move. 
The Twins could possibly find a suitor for Arraez or Polanco. Their contractual situations are even more team-friendly than Kepler's – Arraez has three years of arbitration ahead, while Polanco is owed $7.5 million next year followed by two team options. But to me, the backup options behind both of them are less compelling, and their impact is less replaceable than Kepler's. I don't find my faith in either shaken to the same degree. 
Jeffers won't be traded, since he's the sole major-league catching depth in the organization. Where he's concerned, the key decision – as Gary Sánchez heads to free agency – is whether the Twins should remain committed to him as their 1A catcher, seeking out a León-esque caddy for the minor timeshare. I'm not sure Jeffers has shown the ability or durability to be viewed as a cornerstone at the position, and at age 25 it's hard to project a lot of additional upside. 
The Twins will have a lot of spending money available this offseason if they're unable to retain Carlos Correa, with no especially obvious places to spend it. That is, unless they decide to set their sights on top free agent catcher Willson Contreras and completely reshape their future behind the plate.
These are the kinds of pivots that need to be on the table as the Twins re-evaluate their fundamental makeup of a roster that has now failed to get it done in back-to-back seasons.
 

Max Kepler was part of one of the best international signing classes in Twins' history. Back in 2009, Kepler signed as a teenager out of Germany and joined Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco in the same class. All three players have impacted the Twins over the last 13 years, but Kepler showed his potential as a prospect moving through the system.

During the 2015 season, Kepler dominated in the minor leagues on his way to being one of baseball's top-60 prospects. He spent most of that season at Double-A, where he hit .322/.416/.531 (.947) with 32 doubles, 13 triples, and nine home runs. At season's end, Twins Daily named him the Minor League Hitter of the Year, and he was well on his way to debuting in 2016. 

At the big-league level, Kepler hasn't been able to replicate some of his numbers from earlier in his professional career. His OPS+ was below league average in his first three seasons, even though he averaged 27 doubles and 19 home runs per year. Many thought he finally broke out during the 2019 campaign as he hit 32 doubles and 36 home runs. However, it turned out that the baseballs were juiced, increasing power leaguewide. 

Like many players, Kepler hasn't been able to repeat his numbers from the 2019 campaign. Over the last three seasons, he has hit .220/.314/.392 (.706) while averaging 16 doubles and 12 home runs. Even with an above-average OPS+ in 2020, he has combined for 98 OPS+ since the start of that season. Sometimes he can be frustrating to watch at the plate, but his value goes beyond his offensive struggles. 

Kepler's value during the 2022 season can be deceiving. He has gone through terrible stretches at the plate as he fought through various injuries, and his 93 OPS+ is the worst total of his career. Defensively, he has been among the league's best right fielders. In SABR's updated SDI rankings, Kepler was the second-ranked right fielder behind Houston's Kyle Tucker. He will likely be a Gold Glove finalist, but his recent injury won't let him pass Tucker. 

It's easy to look at Kepler's offensive numbers and believe he is a below-average player. However, his defensive totals help to raise his overall value. Minnesota paid Kepler $6.75 million in 2022, and he is due to make $8.5 million next season. The Twins also control his age-31 campaign for $10 million, or the club can exercise a $1 million buyout. FanGraphs pegs Kepler as providing the Twins with $16 million in value this season, so it's reasonable to think the team will want him back next year. 

MLB rule changes for the 2023 season will impact all players differently, but some may benefit more than others. Teams tend to shift on Kepler because he is a pull hitter, so he might be able to get a few more hits that find a way through the infield. However, it might not be as many hits as one would think because Kepler's outs tend to be weak fly balls. It likely won't result in Kepler turning back into the power hitter he was back in 2019.  
It seems likely for the Twins to ride out Kepler's contract in 2022, but it's not out of the question for the team to consider a trade. In the past, Kepler was considered one of Minnesota's most valuable trade assets because of his team-friendly deal. Now, his Twins tenure is inching closer, and the front office will need to decide what's best for the 2023 club. 

What do you think the team should do with Kepler moving forward? Is it time for the team to go in a different direction? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 
 

Club options are one of the first decisions teams have to make in the offseason, and each team invariably has some easy and tough choices. The Twins have three contract options to consider, and they aren’t all straightforward decisions. 

Miguel Sano, 1B/DH
Contract Option: $14 million, $3 million buyout
Sano has been a member of the Twins organization since he was a teenager, but his time with the Twins is likely coming to an end. During his eight big-league seasons, Sano posted an OPS+ of 105 or higher in six campaigns. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth more than $14 million in three different seasons, but the 2019 campaign was his last season at that level or above. Over the last three seasons, he has combined to be worth $4.5 million, so it is a no-brainer for the Twins to pay the $3 million buyout. Minnesota can use a variety of younger and cheaper options at first base, which makes Sano even more expendable.
Twins Likely Choice: Pay the Buyout
Sonny Gray, SP
Contract Option: $13.1 million, no buyout
While Sano’s option is easy to decline, the Twins will have an easy decision to exercise Gray’s $13.1 million option if he continues to be healthy. In his first season in Minnesota, Gray has a 115 OPS+ with a 79 to 26 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 2/3 innings. The Twins have plenty of options for the 2023 rotation, but Gray should be penciled into the top of the team’s rotation. Minnesota was willing to part with Chase Petty, the team’s 2021 first-round pick because Gray came with multiple years of team control. Besides Gray’s option decision, it will be interesting to see if the team decides to engage him in extension talks to keep him in Minnesota beyond 2023.  
Twins Likely Choice: Exercise Option
Dylan Bundy, SP
Contract Option: $11 million, $1 million buyout
Bundy’s contract option is the toughest of the three because of his improved performance in recent weeks. Minnesota was hoping Bundy would bounce back after a poor 2021 season, but that hasn’t been the case. His ERA+ is below average, and his fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile. Minnesota’s rotation is also reasonably complete, with Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda scheduled to be the team’s top four starters. Other pitchers like Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack will return from injury, making Bundy less of a necessity. Bundy has improved in the season’s second half, but it seems unlikely for the team to pick up his option.
Twins Likely Choice: Pay the Buyout
What would your decision be on the team’s contract options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Alex Kirilloff's first stretch in the majors (not counting his postseason debut in 2020) was a great example of why you shouldn't put too much stock into results over a modest sampling of at-bats, at least without taking a deeper look. He started out his career in an 0-for-15 slump, but it was clear to anyone watching that Kirilloff was hardly overmatched. He wasn't striking out and when he connected he was driving the ball. 
We all knew the hits were going to come. And they did, in a hurry. The outfielder broke out with a nine-game hitting streak that included three doubles and four home runs. But during that stretch – on May 3rd, while sliding into second on one of those doubles – Kirilloff hurt his wrist. And since then nothing has really been the same.
He kept playing for a couple more months but managed only 13 extra-base hits in 46 games the rest of the way before undergoing surgery in July. The hope was that this procedure would correct the wrist issue while also giving him plenty of time to rehab and be ready for this 2022 season. Unfortunately, it hasn't played out like that.
At no point this year has Kirilloff really looked like himself. He opened the season in a 1-for-17 slump and unlike that opening drought from last year, this one carried no signs of being a mirage. He admitted his wrist was still causing him "a lot of pain" while swinging and went on the injured list, receiving a cortisone shot. Since returning, little has changed.
Statcast, which measures the quality and characteristics of batted balls, paints an almost incomprehensibly grim picture of Kirilloff's performance. His highest exit velocity all year is 100.8 MPH, which puts him in the 9th percentile of MLB hitters for Max AV. Last year he topped that number 35 times. His average exit velocity is down to 85 MPH from 91 last year. He has recorded zero barrels all season, meaning he basically has not once truly squared a ball up.
Kirilloff's launch angle is what really tells the story. It's at -14.1 degrees this year, which means he is basically hitting everything directly into the ground. The extreme nature of that figure cannot be overstated – there is not a single qualified MLB player with a negative launch angle this season, much less that deep in the red. Last year there was one player in the negative (Raimel Tapia of the Rockies at -4.4). 
It's unheard of. Kirilloff's swing is completely broken and that is especially hard to see from a player of his natural talent, who was showing glimpses of letting that talent shine. Kirilloff says he's never been able to swing pain-free since the surgery, and he now sounds like he's just trying to cope with this new reality.
"There's still discomfort, and he thinks that his swing does feel different from how it did before the surgery," wrote Do-Hyoung Park for MLB.com. "He's just not able to pinpoint the exact ways in which it feels different. It might be physical. It might be mental. It's likely some combination of both."
I wish I could feel confident he was going to head to Triple-A and figure things out in short order. But Kirilloff is just so far from where he needs to be, and the path to getting there is so unclear. Playing in a doubleheader for the Saints on Sunday, he notched four hits – all singles. The former standout slugger still has yet to collect his first extra-base hit through 69 plate appearances in the majors and minors.
The Twins need his bat at its full potency. Kirilloff can be a pivotal difference-maker for this lineup, as without him they are severely lacking for left-handed power. They need this swing back: 
Is it still within him? The 24-year-old is going to try to find something that works over the coming weeks at St. Paul. If another month or so passes without the power starting to manifest, you have to wonder if they'll turn to Plan B: another surgery. 
Park mentioned in his article that a procedure could be done to create more space between bones where Kirilloff's cartilage has worn away, contributing to the discomfort. He added that this surgery is "more invasive and involves shortening his ulna altogether by breaking and cutting out a section of the bone."
Sounds unpleasant and undesirable. But we're now basically sorting through bad scenarios to land on the least bad. And in the meantime, Kirilloff – who already lost a full year of his career to Tommy John surgery – is watching his prime playing days pass by while he wrestles with, in his words, "one long, continuous puzzle to try to figure out."

Pagán is entering his age-31 season, and he has bounced around MLB over the last six seasons. His first two seasons were in AL West as he pitched in relief for Seattle and Oakland. In 112 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.85 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Tampa Bay added him for the 2019 season, and he posted career-bests in nearly every statistical category, including 20 saves. Like many relievers, the Rays were able to get the best out of him before shipping him away. 

His time in San Diego pointed to a few concerning trends as he posted a 4.75 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings. In Tampa, he was able to keep the ball in the park, avoid hard contact, and miss enough bats to be effective. There's a reason the Padres were looking for a different late-inning reliever, and Minnesota is searching for the 2019 version of Pagán. 

During the 2021 season, there were plenty of things that went wrong in San Diego, and Pagán may have played a role in the team's downfall. His Hard Hit % and Barrel % ranked in the 7th percentile or lower, which resulted in him allowing one of baseball's worst average exit velocities. Batters posted a .538 SLG against his fastball last season, so changing his pitch mix may be something the Twins examine with him. 

Giving up that much hard contact also results in more home runs. Last season, he posted a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 after posting a 1.6 HR/9 for his career. His 13 home runs allowed in 2021 may have been higher had he not been pitching with San Diego's spacious outfield behind him. Home run rates can be unstable, especially for relievers, but it will be something to watch this season. 

Another concern from 2021 was his lack of first-pitch strikes, which tends to increase a pitcher's walk rate. Last season, he posted a 2.6 BB/9, which was slightly above his 2.3 BB/9 for his career. Many projection systems viewed his walk rate as an area of concern for the 2022 campaign. If a reliever can't throw first-pitch strikes, there is a good chance he will allow more base runners, which is a recipe for disaster. 

FanGraphs’s ZiPs projection identified Pagán as a potential bust candidate. According to them, “A bust is a player who will step down a tier in performance or who is in a down cycle and has passed the window to get back to what they used to be. None of the players involved are literally without value, and some of them are still really good.“ There is still an opportunity for Pagán to provide value to the Twins this season.

In limited action this season, the Twins have already attempted to make some changes with Pagán. His fastball usage has decreased while his cutter has stayed the same. So, what's the most significant change? For the first time in his career, he is using a split-finger pitch. Relievers tend to have such a small sample size throughout a season, but it will be interesting to see his success in adding this pitch to his repertoire. 
Even with some struggles last season, Pagán showcased some strong areas on which the Twins can capitalize. His fastball spin ranked in the 91st percentile, even with MLB cracking down on the use of sticky substances. His Whiff% ranked in the 74th percentile, his K% ranked in the 67th percentile, and his xBA ranked in the 65th percentile. If Minnesota trusts Pagán in late-inning situations, he needs to continue to improve in these areas. 

Do you think Pagán is destined to be a bust this season, or do you think he can be a reliable option in the back of the Twins' bullpen? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. 
 

To suggest that Duffey is solely responsible for the two losses he's been tagged with is not quite fair. In both cases he was working with an extremely thin late-game lead thanks to an offense that just can't seem to get going.
Nevertheless, both on April 9th against Seattle and on Tuesday night against Kansas City, Duffey entered with a fresh inning and one-run lead. In both cases, those leads turned to deficits (and eventual losses) on his watch.
As a result, Duffey enters play on Wednesday with the worst Win Probability Added (-0.88) among all major-league players. If this feels familiar, there's a reason. In 2021, Alex Colomé had the worst WPA in the majors by a wide margin for the month of April. We saw the effect his implosion had on the course of the Twins season. It's difficult not to feel a sense of déjà vu.
Now, it also must be noted that we're dealing with incredible small sample sizes here. Duffey has made only three appearances this season. Making rash decisions on such a basis tends to be unwise. For example, Liam Hendriks also finds himself near the bottom of the WPA leaderboard – I doubt the White Sox are about to bump him into mop-up duty.
But there is really no optimism to be drawn from Duffey's performance. He looks TERRIBLE. It seemed clear that he was on the road to regression last year as his peripherals all slid downward, but it was hard to envision such an extraordinary manifestation of this regression so rapidly.

The main problem is that Duffey's fastball, which needs to be a reliable mainstay to set up his breaking ball, is an unusable pitch. He has thrown it 22 times so far and produced zero swings and misses. When putting the four-seamer in play, opponents are 4-for-6 with two doubles and a  home run. The average exit velocity on this contact is a whopping 103 MPH. Good grief.
Rocco Baldelli is short on alternatives at the back end of the bullpen presently, which casts a pall on the decision to trade Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day. (Rogers, by the way, is 5-for-5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA for the Padres.) 
But using Duffey in big spots is simply not an option right now. He needs to be relegated to low leverage and unless things change quickly he's probably going to be on DFA watch. 
It's unfortunate to see from a well-liked player who's been with the organization for so long. But the Twins don't have the luxury of letting sentimentality affect their decision-making. Baldelli simply cannot stand idly by and let another season spin off the rails out of deference to a bad relief pitcher based on nothing more than stature and track record. He just can't.
 

The 2019 season was one of the most memorable Twins seasons in recent memory. After nearly a decade of irrelevancy, Minnesota’s Bomba Squad was born, with the team clubbing an MLB-record 307 home runs. Five Twins hitters combined for 30 or more home runs, and the team won over 100 games for only the second time in franchise history. 

During the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó became a first-time member of the 30 home run club. For the season, he hit .247/.346/.576 (.923) with 34 home runs and a 139 OPS+. He set career highs in nearly every offensive category but so did a lot of other Twins players. MLB’s baseballs from that season were flying out of parks at tremendous rates, so many players accumulated hollow stats that season before the baseballs returned to normal. Following the season, the Twins signed Sanó to a three-year, $30 million contract that would keep him in Minnesota through the 2022 season. 

Since signing his extension, Sanó has frustrated fans with his record-breaking strikeout totals and offensive inconsistencies. In 197 games, he has batted .213/.302/.459 (.761) with a 109 OPS+ and 283 strikeouts. His slow start to the 2022 season was also concerning, but fans have seen his streakiness in the past. It’s also very early into the 2022 campaign, and all of Minnesota’s hitters have struggled so far. 
CJ Cron was another member of that Bomba Squad roster, but he fell just shy of the 30 home run plateau. In 125 games, he hit .253/.311/.496 (.780) with 25 home runs and a 104 OPS+. It was disappointing to see Cron post an OPS+ that was eight points below his career mark in a heightened offensive environment. He missed time during the season with a thumb injury, and there were concerns that the injury could linger into the 2020 campaign. Minnesota non-tendered him during the offseason, and he hit the free-agent market. 

Since leaving the Twins, Cron has provided tremendous value when he has been on the field. A knee injury limited him to 13 games in 2020, but he posted an .894 OPS with seven extra-base hits. Cron headed to Colorado in 2021 and posted one of the best seasons of his career. In 142 games, he hit .281/.375/.530 (.905) with 31 doubles and 28 home runs. Over the last three seasons, FanGraphs ranks Cron as the 13th most valuable first baseman. Sanó is 25th on the list and ranks only ahead of three players with a minimum of 600 plate appearances. 
Cron’s overall value comes from how much better defensively he is at first base compared to Sanó. According to SABR’s Defensive Index, Cron posted a 1.2 SDI last season, which ranked seventh in the National League. Only one AL first baseman, Bobby Dalbec, posted a lower mark than Sanó’s -5.6 SDI. Cron was also worth five more outs above average than Sanó during the 2021 season. Overall, Cron might not be elite defensively, but he is a step up compared to Sanó. 

Many teams will look at the Cron versus Sanó situation with the same lens as the Twins. Sanó was multiple years younger and coming off a season where he had a 139 OPS+. That same winter, the Twins added Josh Donaldson to play third base, which pushed Sanó over to first. Cron was a solid player during his time in Minnesota, but he never fit into the team’s long-term plans. Now, that might look like the team took a swing and a miss.

Do you think the Twins made the wrong choice at first base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

When I wrote to you last I expressed minimal hope for the bargaining session that was about to take place. It turns out my total lack of faith was warranted.  
Passan's assessment above is being generous. Spring training starting on time is not "in peril," it's out the window. The question now is how far it'll be pushed back, and whether the delays will spill over to the regular season.
Just writing that last sentence fills me with dread. This is all so dumb. The game of baseball is incredibly profitable and fans are hungry for it. Reasonable compromises are surely available. 
Yet there is no evident sense of urgency. The league waited six weeks before making a formal proposal on core economics. The players rejected it, and a week later, are said to be "preparing a response to MLB’s recent proposal to be delivered within days." We're fast closing in on February.
"At present, the 'talks' between the parties still amount to theater," writes Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, "a Kabuki dance of proposals and counter-proposals that neither side is taking seriously."
I feel no confidence or optimism. Why would I? There hasn't been one signal to justify a positive attitude toward this process. 
It sucks.
To reference a 20-year-old quote in Rosenthal's article from Bud Selig (the former commissioner who looks remarkably competent in comparison to his successor): "If you remove hope and faith from the mind of a fan, you destroy the fabric of the sport.”

The owners of Major League Baseball locked out the players just after midnight on Thursday morning, ensuring baseball’s first work stoppage in over a quarter century. And Shad Browne knows who to blame.
“These players are greedy and entitled, I’m sick of ‘em,” said the Fairmont landscaper. “They get paid money to play a game and sometimes you’ve gotta take a stand.”
The owners, wealthier than the players by a monstrous degree and living lives of unimaginable luxury, do not receive the same level of disdain from Browne.
“Lotta these owners are entrepreneurs who pulled themselves up by their bootstraps to make their money,” said Browne incorrectly. “Meanwhile, the modern player just takes a day off when they feel like it. The way I see it, you don’t play, you don’t get paid.”
Browne, who took PTO last Monday because the Vikings lost and he was “super hungover,” said he sees a lot of himself in owners, despite this being remarkably untrue.
“They’re just trying to run a business same as anyone else,” he said with the steady resolve that only the deeply ignorant possess. “I guess I’d just like to see a little more gratitude and a little less attitude from the millennial generation.”
Browne, who used the word “meritocracy” in reference to a country where you don’t have to work a day in your life if your great-granddad sold mustard gas to Kaiser Wilhelm, dismissed the notion that the owners should take some of the blame for instigating the lockout they instigated.
“At the end of the day, they’ve got a business to run,” said Browne, for whom the concept of generational wealth has never so much as registered for one second of one day. “If the players can’t handle that, they can get a job just like anyone else.
“It’s just not right,” said the cornfed rube.

It was already over by May 1st. The futility of the Twins 2021 season was summed up by the first-half performance of its pitching staff. The Twins hurlers collected a pitifully sad 4.4 fWAR in the first half of the season, good for 29th in MLB. For the sake of comparison, the White Sox, who had the best first half, came in at 16.1 fWAR. The bullpen itself finished 26th. This is one of the occasions where the eye test and the numbers match up.
We all remember April, Alexander Colome being sent out night after night, like an unsuspecting contestant in ‘Red Light, Green Light’ from Squid Game. It ended the same on almost every occasion, a sad, predictable massacre. 
There was an improvement, however. The Twins finished middle of the pack by most metrics in the second half, although their outcomes belied some of the processes, with a cumulative K/9 in the bottom third of the league and vastly better BaBIP, the Twins bullpen is an important area of focus if the team is to compete in 2022. Similarly to last week, when I wrote about starting pitching free-agent options, I’m choosing to make some assumptions for the sake of looking at some targets in this piece.
The Twins have some strong pieces in place. Assuming their return, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, and Caleb Thielbar provide the bullpen with a strong spine. They have some effective pieces in place, a couple of high-leverage arms, and are all set on lefties.
  The Twins have strong options at AA and AAA. Jovani Moran and his deadly changeup made their major league debut in September. The Twins have additional high-quality, high-velocity arms that performed well at AAA, including Yennier Cano, Ian Hamilton, and Ryan Mason. Those three alone combined for 235 strikeouts in 183 MiLB innings in 2021. In addition to Moran, that’s a group that should be counted on for 1-2 spots in the 2022 season.
  2021 will not scare the front office away from waiver wire pickups. The Twins did not show an ability to tweak or develop any waiver-wire pickups in 2021, a la Matt Wisler in 2020. That doesn’t mean that they should, or will, stop looking for value.
  The Twins need to try and add some stability to the bullpen through free agency. The organization is presented with a difficult challenge, then. Add stability to the solid bullpen foundation already in place with some consistent, reliable free-agent additions. Relief pitchers are notoriously fickle, so fleshing out the bullpen will present a tricky off-season challenge. There is no shortage of options available in the relief pitching market. I counted 92 free agent relief pitchers, with two-thirds of those having positive 2021 seasons. So who are some possibilities the Twins may target?
Kendall Graveman
Graveman made just $1.25 million in 2021 with the Mariners and Astros, so is due for a solid raise in advance of the 2022 season. He made all kinds of breakthroughs this season with his average fastball velocity climbing from 94.2 mph to 96.5 mph and his K/9 increasing from 7.23 to 9.80. Graveman finished the season with an xERA of 3.65 in 56 innings pitched and was acquired by the Astros at the deadline.
Archie Bradley
Bradley was a popular addition candidate with Twins fandom in 2020. He signed for Philadelphia on a 1-year, $6 million deal and should get a similar AAV in 2022. Bradley has strong velocity in the mid-90s but did see some concerning drop-offs in 2021. His K/9 fell to 7.1 (from a previous high of 10.9) and his control was inconsistent. It’s also worth noting that Philadelphia seems to be where relief pitching goes to die. Bradley would be a strong possibility for the Twins if the front office sees something they can tweak in his approach, as the stuff and the track record is there.
Corey Knebel
Knebel rebounded in 2021 after a dreadful 2020. Unsurprisingly, it was the Dodgers who helped him find his best stuff again. Knebel put together a 2.96 xERA in 25 2/3 innings, maintaining a healthy 10.5 K/9. Knebel is a true two-pitch reliever (fastball/curveball) who can run it up into the high 90s. The Dodgers trusted him to open a critical Game 5 of the NLDS against the Giants. Knebel was tied to the Dodgers on a 1-year, $5.25 million deal in 2021. 
Which of these candidates do you like or not like for the Twins bullpen? Which other free-agent relief pitchers would you like to see the Twins target?
 

In a vacuum, Josh Donaldson is not overpaid despite what some frustrated fans may tell you. His time missed in 2020 was frustrating albeit not as costly as it appears considering his prorated salary in the 60 game season. In 2021, he was actually one of the regulars in the lineup day in and day out. As a whole, Donaldson has slashed .243/.355/.474 with the Twins, far from the “wasted payroll” reputation some have pinned on him.
That being said, he’s 35 years old with a tremendous injury history in addition to having about $50m remaining on his salary over the next two years. The result of all of these factors leave the Twins with a fantastic player with an enormous ceiling and about as low of a floor a player can have. For that very reason, it’s difficult to blame them for at least exploring the trade market given the year they just came off of. They shouldn’t be so quick to pull the trigger on a deal without lining themselves up for a slam dunk however. 
This was a recently reported idea for a trade between the Twins and Milwaukee who will likely need an impact third base option in 2022. It’s a perfect example of the type of trade the Twins shouldn’t do. There’s almost no scenario where the Twins don’t pay down significant money to get Donaldson’s contract off the books. The issue is trades like this make the Twins worse in the present and offer little payoff for the future.
Dumping about $35m in future payroll would likely look appealing to ownership. That being said, doing so probably lands them in a situation like this one where the Twins take on money of their own in Jackie Bradley Jr.’s $9.5m and $6.5m buyout in 2023. JBJ slashed .163/.236/.261 en route to a -0.8 fWAR finish on the season. Worse than Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons etc.
Perhaps taking on money isn’t out of the question, but the younger pieces in the deal have to be at least somewhat appealing. In this scenario, they receive 19 year old RHP Logan Henderson and 22 year old outfielder Joey Wiemer, #21 and 23 in the Brewers system respectively. Prospects from the 20s range aren’t very exciting for most teams, but the Brewers in particular are a bottom 5 system by most prospect sites. 
So in review, the Twins get to save a bunch of money in the future, although not a ton after taking on a much less valuable player. Their lineup and team as a whole takes a significant downgrade in regards to the 2022 Opening Day lineup. They also get two prospects who have a very insignificant chance of making any impact on the team in the future. This type of trade would be a mistake.
The Twins have two options in my opinion. They may very well be gearing up to spend big this winter and acquire some legitimate pieces via free agency and trade. In which case, gamble on the health of Josh Donaldson who will still be one of the premier players on the team if healthy. His salary doesn’t impede their spending plans nearly as much as it gets credit for.
The second option is to come to terms with 2022 not being the year. If you don’t want to spend down immediately for a comeback season, paying most if not all of that contract in a trade should be the goal. It’s already on the payroll and one way or another, they’ll pay some sort of price on it. Might as well write a fat check to a competing team in a deal where the recipient gets instantly better and the Twins can command some impactful prospect capital in return.
One way or another, the Twins need to commit 100% when it comes to the Josh Donaldson decision. There’s no point in taking half measures for a team whose winter will have an enormous tilt not only on the 2022 season, but the next few years to come. Should they hold onto their star third baseman or sell him off for the best trade package? Let us know below!
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It's clear that starting pitching is Minnesota's biggest priority this winter, and the team will have to be creative to fill all the starting rotation needs. One of the avenues will undoubtedly be to explore the trade market. Free-agent starting pitching costs a premium, and the current regime hasn't been successful signing players in the past. 

Enter the Miami Marlins and their surplus of starting pitching. It seems like no team can have too much starting pitching, but the Marlins have a strong farm system and other MLB-ready options. According to MLB Pipeline, six of their top-10 prospects are pitchers, including four pitchers at the Double-A level or higher.

Marlins manager Don Mattingly made it clear that upgrading catcher is a priority for the club this winter. "It's an area we're looking at," Mattingly said. "It's fairly safe to say it was some kind of message when we grabbed two catchers at the trade deadline and we also have Nick Fortes up here."

Fortes, a 2018 MLB Draft pick, posted a 1.030 OPS in 34 plate appearances. However, he has a .651 OPS in 190 minor league games. Alex Jackson and Payton Henry, both catchers acquired at the deadline, struggled after joining the Marlins organization. With no clear long-term option, the Marlins can look to the free-agent class, but Yan Gomes (98 OPS+) is the best option.

Minnesota entered the season with what looked like one of baseball's best catching duos, but there were some struggles along the way. Ryan Jeffers struggled offensively at the Triple-A and MLB-level. Mitch Garver found his swing after a rough first month, but he was limited to 68 games. Minnesota's catching future is uncertain with both players' inconsistent 2021 campaign.

From the Twins' perspective, Garver seems like the more likely player to be traded. He is six years older than Jeffers, and he has multiple years of team control remaining. Trading Garver allows the Twins to give Jeffers more regular at-bats, and it also provides the team with an opportunity to bring in a left-handed veteran catcher to serve in a back-up role (unless they feel that Ben Rortvedt is ready for such a role). 

Other teams with established catchers are likely to reach out to the Marlins. Last winter, Miami had discussions about acquiring Willson Contreras from the Cubs, but he is only one year away from free agency. MLB Trade Rumors identified Arizona's Carson Kelly and Pittsburgh's Jacob Stallings as other possible trade candidates. Kelly posted a 104 OPS+ in 98 games, while Stallings finished the year with a 92 OPS+ in 112 games. There's also no guarantee either of those teams are interested in trading their catchers. 

To be competitive in 2022, the Twins will need to trade MLB-level assets to acquire starting pitching. Besides the catchers, other established players like Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson, and Luis Arraez will likely hear their names in the rumor mill. For now, the Twins and Marlins seem like a strong match to make a trade this winter. 

Do you think the Marlins and the Twins will be able to work out a deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
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Below I will outline a plausible path to a good Twins rotation in 2022. Not an elite rotation – that's probably a bridge too far at this point – but a good one with five solid-or-better starters, capable of competing for a postseason spot and maybe more.
There is inherently some optimistic thinking involved here, but I don't think any of these scenarios are out of question. 
1. Bailey Ober proves to be the real deal
Among starting pitchers currently controlled by the Twins, Ober is the only stable fixture looking ahead to 2022. But he's establishing himself as a pretty viable building block.
How did the big right-hander go from relative unknown to indispensable rotation cornerstone in one year's time? By adding 3-4 MPH to his fastball and shedding his label as a "soft-tosser." A few extra ticks of velocity have made a world of difference for the rookie, who is now sneaking heaters past MLB hitters and playing up his lesser offspeed stuff. Toss in excellent command, and you've got a good recipe for success. As we've seen.
Ober's overall numbers with the Twins this year are good – 3.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 77-to-17 K/BB ratio in 74 ⅔ innings – but even better when you break them down to parse out his progression. 
His K/BB ratio in the latter sample is legitimately elite (only two qualified MLB starters are averaging more than six strikeouts per walk, and they are Cy Young candidates Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole). When you're missing bats, limiting walks, and keeping the hits in check, you're in line for good outcomes. Ober has shown the ability to do all these things, and he's only getting better at each of them. 
Home runs will be something to monitor, and could sidetrack him if they re-emerge as a weakness, but at this point there's no reason to think a healthy Ober won't be at least a quality #3 or 4 starter in 2022.
2. Twins sign a #2/3 starter in free agency
No, they're not going to sign Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Probably not Noah Syndergaard either. Even someone like Marcus Stroman or Justin Verlander may be a tad too ambitious. But with ample flexibility (should they choose to keep payroll steady or raise it slightly), there are several names in the next tier that should be within range, and it's not that hard to see one of them settling in as a mid-rotation caliber starter or better. 
Names in this category include Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Andrew Heaney, and others.
3. Acquire a #2/3 starter via trade
Last year, the Twins acquired Maeda and watched him blossom into a Cy Young caliber performer. This year, their division rivals have done the same with Lance Lynn. 
We don't need to set our sights that high, though it'd be nice. Jameson Taillon is a less idealistic example. He wasn't a star for Pittsburgh, and the Yankees didn't have to part with top-tier prospect talent to acquire him. But he has served as a very solid mid-rotation arm for New York, at a low price and with multiple years of control remaining.
The Twins didn't trade away any of their system's depth last winter, and have only added to it this year by selling at the deadline. Additionally, they have a few semi-redundant pieces at the major-league level that could have value to other clubs (Max Kepler, Mitch Garver ... Luis Arraez?) The front office will have assets to deal for pitching if they are so inclined. 
4. Re-sign Michael Pineda
The door definitely seems wide open for a reunion, as each side has openly expressed affinity for the other, and with Pineda's challenges this year, he should be pretty affordable – maybe $4-5 million. 
Given those challenges, I'm sure most Twins fans aren't enthused about the idea of bringing back Pineda. But let's look at the big picture here: the 32-year-old has posted a 3.98 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 during his time with the Twins. That includes his recent struggles, which can likely be attributed somewhat to health. In his first 36 starts with Minnesota, the team went 24-12. 
His circumstances, and a theoretical desire to return here, could enable the Twins to score Pineda at the cost of a back-end starter, while hoping an offseason of rest and strengthening returns him to his previous state or close to it. 
5. Get Randy Dobnak back on track
As with Pineda, it's easy to get caught up in Dobnak's recent struggles while losing sight of his previous success. In fact, it's a lot easier, because Dobnak does not have nearly the track record of Pineda. But through the first 14 outings of his MLB career, the Dobber was simply phenomenal, posting a 1.69 ERA with four home runs allowed over 58 ⅔ innings. This after a tremendous minor-league career that saw him perform well at every level. Dobnak's effectiveness was no accident – the bottom simply fell out on his pitches, making them excruciatingly difficult to lift, and he consistently threw them in the zone.
Things went south late in the 2020 season, but Dobnak rebounded with a dominant spring that compelled the Twins to invest with a modest long-term contract. And then the bottom fell out on Dobnak. We all know this season has been a complete and total disaster for the right-hander, but it's unclear to what it extent that owes to injury issues. 
When you're a slider-reliant sinkerballer who goes from allowing four homers in your first two seasons to allowing 11 in your third, before going on IL for multiple months with a strain in the middle finger that is so crucial in creating that sink ... Well, it points to a natural explanation.
There's no guarantee that time off will correct this issue, but we'll at least start to get an idea when Dobnak returns to the rotation on Friday. Regardless of how things go for the rest of this season, he'll most likely get a crack at the 2022 rotation given that he's under guaranteed contract. If he gets back on track and is anywhere close to the version we saw early on in his big-league career, well that's a hell of a good fifth starter.
6. The minors provide depth and jolts
Above, we've accounted for all five season-opening rotation spots. And we haven't yet tapped into the impressive minor-league pipeline this front office has built up. Between Joe Ryan, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder, you have a bevy of high-upside arms that are all verging on MLB-ready, if not already there. 
Granted, it's tough to depend on any of these prospects short-term, given that none have yet appeared in the majors (save Ryan, who debuted impressively on Wednesday) and the group is riddled with significant injury concerns. But that's why I'm not penciling them into any of the top five spots. We can account for those otherwise and keep these exciting arms in reserve, while knowing that just about any one of them has the potential to be a game-changing force for the Twins pitching staff if things break right.
Look, I get that it's hard to envision multiple positive scenarios playing out in this fashion, especially with the way faith has been understandably eroded in the this front office over the past year. But one thing I find myself frequently reminding others – and myself – is that things change fast in this game. In 2016 and 2018, nobody was foreseeing good things on the near horizon. 
The Twins made some mistakes last offseason, but have also been the victims of absolutely horrible luck. This front office and coaching staff have proven their mettle in the past. If they can learn from those mistakes and the pendulum of fortune swings in the other direction, it's not all that difficult to envision a pitching staff capable of supporting what could be a very strong offense to push Minnesota back into contender status. 
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The Twins hired Derek Falvey (who hired Thad Levine) in the wake of a disastrous 103-loss season in 2016. By that point, the Twins had gone six straight years without making the playoffs, and during that span they lost more games than any team in baseball. 
The following year, Minnesota stunningly reached the postseason as a wild-card team. Then they missed out in 2018, still finishing second, before rebounding in 2019 with one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. The Twins followed in 2020 with another division title. 
To run all that back: this front office took over a team that had gone 407-565 (.419) with zero playoff appearances in its previous six years, and went 300-246 (.549) with three playoff appearances in the next four. 
Does their success owe somewhat to the foundation built before they arrived? Of course. No one would deny that Terry Ryan and Co. had cultivated an impressive nucleus before being ousted. But during those years, the Twins repeatedly failed in the draft, failed in acquisitions, and failed in player development. The results bore that out.
Let's be clear about something here: This current regime was so successful and so impressive through four years that they were repeatedly poached of talent, both in the front office and the coaching staffs they assembled. Not only that, but Falvey and Levine themselves have been courted by big-name franchises like the Red Sox and Phillies. 
What did they say, according to publicized reports on the matter? 
"No thanks, we're going to see through what we're building here."
And so, to see flocks of fans calling for their heads because of one bad season, which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived ... it's a little hard to take. 
Falvey became the youngest head exec in the league when he took Minnesota's top job. Currently he is 38 years old, which is three years younger than the DH he traded to Tampa Bay last month. Up until now he never experienced serious adversity during his tenure, which speaks to how smoothly things have gone in the first four years. 
The same could be said, by the way, for his managerial choice Rocco Baldelli, who was named Manager of the Year in 2019 (as the youngest skipper in baseball, with no experience in the role) and then won a second straight division title in his second season.
These people have shown their mettle. They've won. A lot. I realize they haven't won in the playoffs, and that sucks, but they haven't had nearly the opportunity of their predecessors. 
Are we not going to give them a chance to learn from failure?
Obviously the free agent pitching additions from the past winter have failed at every level. But this front office has made plenty of good and savvy pickups in the past, which helped fuel the success of high-quality staffs the last two years. And in any case, Falvey wasn't really hired to sign pitchers. He was hired to develop them.
On that front, the jury is still out. This operation was four years in when a pandemic came along and wiped out an entire minor-league season. The fact that Minnesota's upper minors are currently loaded with intriguing high-upside arms would suggest the mission was on track, and is just now getting back on the rails. 
Soon we'll start seeing those arms (along with the ones acquired at the deadline this year) ushered into majors, and at that point we'll be able to make real assessments. But until then, you're judging an incomplete project. 
This reassembled baseball ops department has been working ahead of schedule basically since they took over a moribund franchise in despair. They hit a setback this year, and it's been painful. Let's give them a chance to get back on track in the wake of a major disruptive event and humbling follow-up season.
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Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Happ 3.0 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
Homeruns: Sano 2 (17), Jeffers 2 (8), Kepler (14), Rooker (4), Polanco (15)
Bottom 3 WPA: Happ -0.321, Minaya -0.158, Kepler -0.154 
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

J.A. Happ’s Horrendous Start
It has been far from a good season for offseason signing J.A. Happ, who put together arguably his worst outing of the season, yes even as bad as his start against the White Sox back in May. By the time the plug was finally pulled on Happ, the game was seemingly well out of reach. After giving up a couple of baserunners, but no runs in the first, Happ surrendered four singles and a walk in the second that gave the Tigers the early two run lead.
Happ then had a strong three-up-three-down third and appeared to get his start back on the right track. That was before all hell broke loose in the fourth. To start the top of the fourth, the Tigers offense started the inning by going single, walk, double, single, single, walk, double before Rocco Baldelli finally came out and ended J.A. Happ’s outing.
Former Tigers first round pick Beau Burrows came in to relieve Happ, and got out of the inning, but not before allowing two sac-flies and an RBI triple, giving the Tigers an early 10-0 lead. Burrows would stay in the game and pitch a scoreless fifth, after the Twins bats somehow got them back in the game, but then let the Tigers build on their lead again in the sixth. He gave up two walks to begin the inning, before Zack Short hit an RBI double. Burrows then got the next two guys on flyouts, the former being a sac-fly, before Grayson Greiner ripped another double off Burrows giving the Tigers what was at the time a 13-6 lead.
Twins Monster 4th Inning
After the Tigers appeared the bust the game completely wide open in the top of the fourth, the Twins bats made the game interesting after a big inning of their own. Miguel Sano got the scoring started with a leadoff solo home run to center field.
 
After the Sano home run, which was nice to see, the game still felt very much not in the balance. That, however, would all change just four batters later. After the Sano home run, Trevor Larnach, Willians Astudillo and Nick Gordon all hit singles to set the table for this Ryan Jeffers grand slam!
 
The Twins bats were not done after that, as they continued to pile on the hits. After Andrelton Simmons lined out to right, Max Kepler was hit by a pitch and that was the end of the road for Tigers pitcher Wily Peralta, who was replaced by Kyle Funkhouser (great name). Funkhouser did not find any more success, as Rooker, Polano and Sano all proceeded to get singles off of him to begin his outing, cutting the Tigers lead to four and giving the Twins bases loaded and just one out. They failed to capitalize on this, however, as Trevor Larnach struck out and Willians Astudillo grounded out to end the inning.

Twins Coming Roaring Back in the 8th
Yes, I know that was a bad Tigers pun, but it was a long game. With the Twins still down 13-6 entering the bottom of the eighth, the Twins bats exploded for a second time in today’s ballgame. Max Kepler, who has been swinging the bat a lot better in July, got the inning started with his fourteenth home run of the season, and that would not be even close to the last home run the Twins would hit this inning.
 
Then it was Brent Rooker’s turn to stay hot, after he’s been tearing it up in St. Paul this year to the tune of 19 home runs and an OPS of .908 in 61 ball games for the Saints. In total, Rooker has hit 23 home runs in just 75 games played between the Saints and the Twins this season.
 
Now down 13-8, it felt like the Twins were still in the ball game, and that feeling became even stronger once Jorge Polanco drew a walk to get on base for what was the most no-boudt of all no-doubters that has ever come off the bat of Miguel Sano, and that is saying something.
 
According to Statcast, that home run left Miguel Sano’s bat with an exit velocity of 114.8 MPH and a launch angle of 30 degrees, traveling an estimated 473 feet into the third deck in left-center. Truly a mammoth home run, even by his standards. 
The Twins bats did not slow down after that, as they continued to use the long ball to get back into this ballgame. After a Willians Astudillo double, sandwiched between a Tevor Larnach fly out and a Nick Gordon strike out, Ryan Jeffers blasted his second home run of the game, bringing the Twins back within one.
 
Juan Minaya Shines Until Things Fall Apart in the Ninth
After the struggles of J.A. Happ and Beau Burrows, Juan Minaya was a refreshing change of pace for the Twins on the mound, when he entered the game to start the seventh. He began his outing by retiring all six batters that he faced in the seventh and eighth innings, and came back out to pitch the ninth, after the Twins had just made it a one-run ball game. He got the inning started off strong by striking out Harold Castro, before walking Grayson Greiner. After a quick mound visit, Minaya seemed to get back on track as he struck out Akil Baddoo for the second out of the inning.
That is when things fell apart on Minaya, who was arguably left in the game a bit too long, especially with the Twins back in it. With two outs, the Tigers proceeded to get a single and a walk to load the bases for Eric Haase, who promptly delivered with a bases clearing double to bust the game back open for the Tigers. He would then come around to score on the next batter, when Jeimer Candelario hit a double of his own, giving the Tigers a 17-12 lead.
It is worth noting that none of the Tigers 17 runs in today’s ballgame were scored on a home run.
Jorge Polanco Gives Twins a Glimmer of Hope in the Ninth
Given all that had happened today, a five run lead in the ninth did not seem insurmountable for the Twins. After all, they already had two six run innings, so why not a third and the way the inning started it appeared as though that was possible. Brent Rooker leadoff the inning with a hard fought walk and was immediately followed by a home run off the bat of Jorge Polanco, the Twins seventh of the ballgame.
 
 
That comeback effort would not come to fruition, as Miguel Sano and Trevor Larnach would both strike out and Willians Astudillo would ground out to end what was not only an incredible game, but an incredible series.
Bullpen Usage Chart

What's Next
The Twins are off on Thursday before traveling to St. Louis to begin a three-game series with the Cardinals. Jose Berrios is scheduled to be on the mound for the Twins, though that is still very much up in the air depending on what happens with the trade deadline fast approaching.

The Twins, destined for irrelevance this season, have a variety of players they'd be more than happy to ship out. Impending free agents like Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ? Why not? Makes no difference really. Those players will be free for anyone to sign come November, and there's no reason to be clamoring for an extension with any of them. 
Even players under control beyond this year, like Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sanó, could be dealt with a viable argument their salary allotment is better diverted elsewhere. 
The problem, of course, is that none of these players are likely to generate significant demand at the deadline. Due either to performance, contracts, injuries, or some combination, they're all burdened by drawbacks that significantly dash their trade value. In any of these cases, the Twins are going to be accepting an underwhelming return. Many trade scenarios would qualify as no more than a salary dump.
When it comes to selling high, the front office has three opportunities, and in only two of those cases will they be able to dictate a market and drive up the asking price. 
Fresh off his All-Star appearance, Nelson Cruz is an elite hitter, and basically the biggest offensive upgrade a team could ask for at the deadline. He's a bona fide difference-maker for a contender, and all but certain to get moved. But as a 41-year-old pure DH with two months left on his deal, Cruz's market is inherently limited. When you narrow down the field of teams that actually have a fit, are willing to pay his remaining salary, and are in contention for a championship, you wind up with a handful at most. 
Cruz will almost surely be traded, but he's not going to bring back a game-changing prospect. That's the nature of the beast.
If the Twins want to sell high and compel another team to overpay at the deadline, they're going to need to trade away either their best starter, José Berríos, or their best reliever, Taylor Rogers. 
Now this is not an endorsement of that course of action. I feel the same reservations as many people reading this do. 
In part, the attachment is sentimental. Berríos and Rogers are both extremely likable, as well as extremely familiar. They are among the longest-tenured Twins players – both drafted in 2012 before making major-league debuts in 2016. They've remained constants in the rotation and bullpen while the team has changed drastically around them. Both are models of durability and consistency.
But sentimentality aside, the more important factor here is that both Berríos and Rogers are critical if not essential to any hopes of the Twins rebounding and returning to contention in 2022.
It's already difficult enough to envision the club fielding a contention-caliber rotation OR bullpen next year, given the sorry current state of both units. But when you remove the top performer (by a wide margin) in each, the task feels insurmountable. 
Berríos and Rogers should theoretically be centerpieces of a retool-and-reset strategy. They are both under team control at a reasonable rate next year, and each is on top of his game. Berríos ranks seventh among AL starters in fWAR, while Rogers ranks fifth among relievers – a first-time All-Star with career highs in K-rate, swinging-strike rate, and FIP.
Of course, these are exactly the reasons they will generate outsized demand. Whereas Cruz has a narrow field of suitors, Berríos and Rogers are attractive to any team that's even THINKING about buying. 
Which brings us back to the point at hand. I don't like the idea of trading either of these long-time fixtures, especially when you'd be subtracting from a clear area of weakness. But no one can deny that if the Twins want to make a real splash and acquire substantial prospect capital to aid whatever scale of rebuild they are about to undertake ... they really have no other choice.
This front office prides itself on being opportunistic, and has never been weighed down by sentimentality. We'll see where they land.
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I love baseball in all of its dissectible minutiae. I delight in overthinking every at-bat, sweating every intense moment, and debating pointless frivolities. I get a kick out of analyzing and opining on the many twists and turns of a marathon season. And offseason. (If you frequent this site, you might have noticed.)
But more than all that, I just love the baseball experience. Removing all of the stats, trends, trades, analytics, and hot takes, I am plain and simply a baseball fan to the core. I feel at peace in the ballpark, or with sounds of the game droning on my TV or radio.
When I was a young pup riding the bus down Cedar Avenue to the Metrodome, I didn't care much about Kirby Puckett's OPS or Brad Radke's trade value. I was just happy to be wandering through this majestic Dome, eating a hot dog and staring on at the action alongside thousands of other contented folks. If the game went long, maybe I'd even get to stay out late on a school night.
Much has changed since those days, but the fundamental source of my passion has not. And I was reminded of this very starkly in 2020, when a cherished annual summer routine – uninterrupted since I could remember (mind you, I was 9 years old when the '94 strike took place) – fell apart.
As the pandemic unfolded two springs ago, I was highly skeptical a season of record could be salvaged. Happily I was wrong. Major League Baseball managed to pull off a shortened 60-game season, and it was entirely fine. Much better than nothing. 
But it never quite felt authentic, and was over almost as quickly as it began. (The Twins played their 60th game of this season five weeks ago.) Most crucially, like so many diehards across the country, I never got to attend a game. It's an irrelevant footnote in the face of all the tragedy and trauma faced by so many last year, but losing the ballpark experience was a bummer. I promised myself that when we emerged from it all and congregated once again at the stadium, I'd savor the hell out of it.
And that I have. I've attended more Twins games at Target Field in the first half of this season than any previous. (And a couple at Kauffman Stadium!) I've run into random friends, heckled opposing outfielders, inhaled messy brats, beat the buzzer on bottom-of-seventh beers, and gazed wordlessly from my seat for indefinite stretches at the beautifully bland cadence of baseball, in all of its calm and rhythmic glory. 
Lord, did I miss it.
I attended two games this past weekend, during a sweep of the Tigers to close out the first half. Let's just say it cemented my deep gratitude for the return of (relative) normalcy in the realm of baseball. On Friday I grabbed bleacher seats with high school friends and felt the electricity of the year's biggest crowd. The place was alive. Sunday, I joined up with a whole gaggle of Twins Daily writers – many of whom I'd scarcely had met before, what with the absence of events for 16 months – and we had a ball milling about on the Gray Duck Deck. Considerable Bomba Juice was consumed. 
These times are golden. They're what fuel my fandom and love for the sport, through thick and thin. I don't know if this year's Twins season would be described as thick or thin (kinda weird descriptors?), but what matters is we're all trudging through it together, and Sunday was an excellent reminder of that: a perfect punctuation to the best and worst damn first half of Twins baseball ever. 
The return of baseball as we know and love it would be way more fun, obviously, if our favorite team did not fall flat and completely erase any pretense of contention by the All-Star Game. But them's the breaks. 
The home team hasn't won much, and it's a shame.
Still, those eternal words ring truer than ever: Take me out to the ballgame. Take me out with the crowd.

In 2020’s aftermath, organizations are going to attempt to get their prospects back on track to eventually have big-league success. Missing all the 2020 season forced teams to get creative with plans for prospect development as many players were relegated to home workout plans. Minnesota was lucky enough to have room at their alternate site for top prospects like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach and they have reaped the benefits so far this season.
Kirilloff struggled this spring and was left off the Opening Day roster, but he has put together some strong numbers since the Twins called him up. He ended the first half with a .765 OPS and a 113 OPS+ including 20 extra-base hits. Larnach isn’t that far behind as he has compiled a .755 OPS and a 113 OPS+ with 16 extra-base hits. While these players have succeeded, other top prospects have struggled so far in their first taste of the big leagues.
Tampa’s Wander Franco entered the season as baseball’s consensus top prospect, but things haven’t been easy for him so far. In his first 15 games, he has hit .197/.258/.328 and combined for a 67 OPS+. He just turned 20-years old in March so there is plenty of time for him to find his groove. Tampa likely hopes he finds it sooner rather than later as they are part of a tight race in the AL East.
Seattle’s Jarred Kelenic started the year ranked as baseball’s number four prospect by Baseball America and MLB.com. He got 23 games under his belt and the results were bad enough that Seattle sent him back to Triple-A. He hit .096/.185/.193 with 26 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. He is still part of the long-term plan in Seattle and his bat seems to be getting back on track in the minors.
Atlanta’s Cristian Pache ranked as a top-20 prospect by all three national top-100 lists. But like Franco and Kelenic, he has struggled to find his stroke in the majors. In 22 games, he has hit .111/.152/.206 with 25 strikeouts in 63 at-bats. Ronald Acuna’s season ending injury might allow him to get some more at-bats as the season progresses, but he there are some obvious areas of improvement.
The 2021 season has been dreadful for the Twins as well as some of baseball’s top prospects. Thankfully, Kirilloff and Larnach have been forced into some situations that will be learning experiences moving forward. Even with some recent struggles, Larnach has been consistently hitting in the middle of the line-up. Kirilloff has come up with some big hits and important defensive plays. It’s a small positive in the middle of a terrible Twins campaign.
Franco, Kelenic, and Pache may all be better players than Minnesota’s duo, but it’s clear that Kirilloff and Larnach have more than lived up to their scouting reports in the season’s first half. Now they need to continue to make adjustments to stay ahead of the rest of baseball’s top prospects.
What have your impressions been of Minnesota’s rookie duo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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