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Obviously anything can change in the next week, but right now all indications point to Minnesota passing on heralded prep phenom Hunter Greene at No. 1 overall. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have undoubtedly received countless glowing scouting reports, and seen his unique greatness on display in person, but ultimately it appears the upside/risk balance is too heavily skewed for a pick that could well define their tenure.
That leaves college stars Wright and Brendan McKay as the remaining members of the consensus top three. Everything I'm hearing leads me to believe the Twins are leaning away from McKay, a two-way threat with some questions on both sides.
Wright is who Baseball America has the Twins taking in their latest mock. Ditto Keith Law of ESPN. And our guy Jeremy. The signs are pretty clear. The Twins have been all over the 6-foot-4 righty for many months and have watched him hit his stride leading up to the draft, including a nine-strikeout performance against Clemson in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday that saw him touching 95-96 MPH as late as the sixth inning.
Wright is a big-time talent, and as a more defined commodity than Greene or McKay, he carries less relative risk.
There is also this: If the Twins feel they are currently at the front end of their rebuild coming to fruition, Wright fits rather nicely into the timeline they have going.
Jose Berrios has arrived, and shows no signs of wanting to go back. Adalberto Mejia is flashing very positive signs. Minnesota has the beginnings of a young stable to move forward with, but obviously they'll need plenty more.
The organization's top two prospects are not far away. Fernando Romero is coming on at Chattanooga following an inconsistent start. He has allowed two earned runs with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings over his past three turns. Meanwhile, Stephen Gonsalves has joined him in the Lookouts rotation after shoulder issues cost him the first six weeks. He lowered his ERA to 2.45 with five shutout frames in his fourth start Monday.
Romero and Gonsalves both are 22. Wright, as a 21-year-old college product, would probably head straight to Single-A upon signing. If things play out the right way he could be reaching the majors very shortly after they do, if not simultaneously.
For some context, here's what the timeline looks like if you get it right with a collegiate ace at the No. 1 pick:
In June 6th, 2011, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole (UCLA) first overall. His major-league debut came two years and five days later, on June 11th, 2013. He was immediately very good.
On June 9th, 2009, the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg (SDSU) first overall. His major-league debut came 364 days later, on June 8th, 2010. He was immediately very good.
On June 7th, 2007, the Rays took David Price (Vanderbilt, just like Wright) first overall. His major-league debut came in September of 2008. He was – yep – immediately very good.
Now, obviously, these are lofty examples but Wright is an advanced arm with all of the attributes you're looking for. If the Twins feel he has a shot to follow that precedent and rocket to the big leagues, it would be quite favorable in the scope of their big-picture contention efforts.
Is he that guy? You can draw your own conclusions when Jeremy gives you the full breakdown later this week. In the meantime, check out the rest of our latest coverage previewing Minnesota's top pick next Monday:
Jeremy's 10 Round Twins Mock
Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie
Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson
Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming
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