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  • The Moments that Sank the 2022 Minnesota Twins


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins are limping through September and it’s looking more like they’ll miss the postseason for a second straight year. Walking wounded and trying to make it through the finish line, there've been more than a handful of instances things have gone wrong.

     

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Rocco Baldelli has done everything he can to hold this Twins team together. With the injured list total mounting, and lackluster output coming on the field, it’s been a perfect storm of negative outcomes this season. Unfortunately the bad omens came early on this year, and the hits really didn’t stop.

    Emilio Pagan takes his first loss
    On April 12 the Minnesota Twins faced the Los Angeles Dodgers at Target Field. It was an absolutely dominant series from the NL West champs, one in which Clayton Kershaw nearly threw a no-hitter. The front office flipped closers right before Opening Day, and Emilio Pagan was making his second appearance. He gave up a single hit and walk while being credited with a loss. The Dodgers rallied for six runs in the 8th inning and the game went up in smoke.

    In and of itself, that loss wasn’t entirely damning. It was foreshadowing though, and Pagan has all but sunk the Twins season. He’s racked up six blown saves and is also responsible for six losses. He’s routinely coughed up games against the Guardians, Minnesota’s toughest competition, and all season it’s been a belief in stuff that hasn’t provided any positive results.

    Byron Buxton jams his knee
    On April 15 playing against the Boston Red Sox, Byron Buxton slid awkwardly and jammed his knee into the ground. It looked awful and he reacted as such. Being lifted from the game, but walking off the field under his own power, Minnesota’s newly extended $100 million man seemed destined for the injured list. Instead, Buxton was back less than a week later and playing through general knee soreness.

    Sure, Byron has compiled 4.0 fWAR this season and has been worth every bit of his extension, but it’s been a constant battle as to whether the knee will hold up. He’s had it drained routinely throughout the year, and there have been fears of further damage due to the number of injections. Ultimately a hip injury landed him on the injured list and may end his season. Even with as good as he’s been, it’s hard not to think “what if” given a clean bill of health. There’s no denying the amount of strength this man has to play through what he did in 2022.

    Royce Lewis goes down
    The Minnesota Twins found themselves in a bind when record-setting free agent Carlos Correa was hit by a pitch. Despite having missed all of 2021 due to a torn ACL, Royce Lewis established himself immediately on the farm this season and forced his debut at the highest level. In an 11-game cameo, he posted an .889 OPS and looked solid at shortstop. Sent back when Correa returned, Lewis then sought to enter the lineup elsewhere. Playing centerfield for Byron Buxton a leap at the wall on May 29 sent him to the ground. After some waiting on the swelling, it was determined he’d torn his ACL for a second time.

    Lewis looked like the breakout rookie Twins Territory could get behind. His debut had been heavily anticipated for some time, and then it all came crashing down in a matter of weeks. He’s on the road to recovery, but it’s not likely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day 2023. Minnesota will get their star prospect back, but waiting will be involved.

    Alex Kirilloff undergoes season-ending surgery, again
    On August 9 it was announced that Alex Kirilloff would again go under the knife in an attempt to fix his nagging wrist issues. After surgery last year shut him down, a more extensive procedure was required this time around. Kirilloff had looked like a shell of what expectations are, and aside from a brief hot stretch at Triple-A, he never found his power this year.

    After thinking things were trending in a better direction following the first surgery, Kirilloff revealed that his wrist had never fully recovered. He shut things down in the offseason, and was clearly bothered at the plate for Minnesota. After having to break and shorten his wrist, the hope would be that Kirilloff’s healing process goes smoothly and he can tap back into the player he was prior to the injury.

    Baserunning and Clutch Situations
    Without pointing to a specific circumstance, the Twins have been horrid once reaching base this year. Fangraphs keeps track of baserunning via the BsR metric, and only the Washington Nationals rank lower across the league than Minnesota this season. While aggressiveness is desirable, being thrown out by a longshot or running into outs has been something far too regular this season.

    There's also the ineptitude that Minnesota has displayed when hitting with runners in scoring position. Despite a lineup that should've been expected to score with regularity this season, the Twins have been shut out in nearly 10% of their games and routinely have taken poor at bats with runners in scoring position.

    What other lowlights come to mind for you this season?

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    No team has their starting pitchers as a group average 6 innings per game. So the Twins are pretty much pitching to the standard in baseball this year. As they were last year. Their team era is down over a run per game from last year. The total runs allowed is also down over a run per game. People may not like it but from a year over year look back they have been successful in handling the pitching staff this year. Considering how many pitchers have gone down with injuries, I would say chopping off a run per game allowed is pretty remarkable.

    Hitting is only down slightly. Last year they were 14th in scoring and this year they are 16th. Again considering all the injuries, this is pretty remarkable

    Do all the conditioning you want, but knee, elbow and shoulder injuries along with broken bones are more a sympton of doing too much rather than too little.

    I would have liked to have seen what this team could have accomplished with everyone healthy and am hoping to see what this team can accomplish next year with hopefully everyone healthy. But this site has been too negative instead of focusing on what has actually been done.

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    17 minutes ago, gman said:

    No team has their starting pitchers as a group average 6 innings per game. So the Twins are pretty much pitching to the standard in baseball this year. As they were last year.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml

    This season they are fourth or fifth from the bottom in the majors, with 4.8 innings per start versus 5.2 league average.  The Astros lead with 5.9.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-starter-pitching.shtml

    Last year by contrast there were just a shade below MLB average, well within what I'd guess to be "noise" rather than useful information.

    So, yes and no.  The trend has been down all across the majors (with some kind of uptick this year), but the Twins have been accelerating that trend this season.  Choosing to run with Archer and Bundy could have a lot to do with that - but it is a choice that the FO made and which Rocco then was tasked to implement with short duty for these two arms in particular.

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    3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml

    This season they are fourth or fifth from the bottom in the majors, with 4.8 innings per start versus 5.2 league average.  The Astros lead with 5.9.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-starter-pitching.shtml

    Last year by contrast there were just a shade below MLB average, well within what I'd guess to be "noise" rather than useful information.

    That's a difference of about 1 out per game. I would trade that for the 1 run per game they cut out.

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    1 minute ago, gman said:

    That's a difference of about 1 out per game. I would trade that for the 1 run per game they cut out.

    There are only 27 outs per game, and we're nowhere near an era where starters achieve anything close to that.  So an out or two, out of about 15 or 16 is looking meaningful to me, over the course of what's almost now a complete season.

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