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This offseason, we’ll see what Falvine does with their blank canvas, because there has never been a Twins team that could pivot in so many directions in an offseason. It’s the result of sticking to short contracts, dumping Josh Donaldson, and developing minor leaguers to fill spots.
But now they are faced with the challenge: what do they do with a blank canvas?
You likely don’t need to be convinced that payroll is the Twins’ primary limitation every offseason. So, to get some idea of what to expect, every offseason we break down the Twins’ roster’s payroll for the upcoming season at a back-of-the-napkin level.
The goal isn’t to precisely define each player’s upcoming salary; there are too many unknowns. The goal is to get close enough to be directional, call out what we know and don’t know, and the decisions the team likely needs to make.
OK – it’s not a COMPLETELY blank canvas. The Twins have some obligations, and they have some no-brainers, at least as a starting point for this discussion. So let’s start filling in some blanks. We can always adjust them later. (And so can Falvey and Thad Levine. Which is what makes it a blank canvas.)
The Lineup
Let’s go position by position, starting with…
Catcher – Ryan Jeffers is a no-brainer to return, provided you think he’ll return to full health from his broken thumb, and all indications are he will. He’s also a no-brainer because he still hasn’t reached arbitration, so he’s likely to be paid slightly in excess of $700K. Whether you trust him to be the starting catcher or the backup is up to you, but either way he’s on our list.
Gary Sanchez and Sandy Leon, on the other hand, are both free agents. We’ll need to leave them off the napkin.
First Base – Luis Arraez mostly filled this role, and will be in his second year of arbitration, though he has two more years of team control after that because he hit arbitration a year than most players. He’ll get a significant raise to $4-5M, Still that’s a bargain for him so he’s obviously added to the napkin.
Jose Miranda also saw a lot of time at first base, and he’ll be coming back at close to MLB’s $700K minimum wage. It’s a no-brainer that he needs to be on this napkin somewhere. We’re just not sure where yet….
If you would like another thousand-plus words of details and charts on individual player's salaries, then you’re going to LOVE the Offseason Handbook, as that’s the tip of the iceberg. Plus, you get to support all Twins Daily’s great writers who work every day throughout the offseason to deep dive into the Twins. Sign up here. But in this story, we'll skip to the conclusion....
A Blank Canvas
Adding all that up represents about $95M in salary, which leaves the Twins almost $45M in salary to spend. That’s a big number, but could get even bigger if they want to trade away some salaries like that of Max Kepler or Gio Urshela, which would free up $15M to $20M more.
Even more striking is that there aren’t many true holes to fill. The team certainly needs to figure out what to do at shortstop, but even there, Royce Lewis is expected to return midseason. As exciting as he looked this season, nobody would blame the Twins if they only signed a fill-in shortstop so Lewis could step in as soon as he’s recovered from his knee surgery.
This is what a blank canvas looks like. The Twins have lots of money, and very few true gaps. So which direction do they go? Add a dependable big bat? A high-end shortstop? A dependable #1 starter? Or another closer-caliber bullpen arm? All of those moves could be prioritized, but none of them are required.
After six years of organization building, including two years of disappointing sub-.500 finishes, the team and its management are at a crossroads. The self-imposed limitations they’ve placed on long-term deals, along with a surge of prospects hitting the major league roster, have given them this offseason of opportunity.
But it also means there are no excuses. The team has worked for, and achieved, a blank canvas. Now we’ll see what they do with it.
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