The Latest on Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins

For years there has been discussion as to whether the Twins may move on from Max Kepler. The German-born outfielder was signed to a five-year contract extension before the 2019 Major League season, and that was coming off a season in which he posted a 97 OPS+.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had seen enough consistency offensively, albeit to a mediocre level, and a substantial defensive contribution to lock him into a cost-certain deal. Rather than going to arbitration with Kepler, the Twins now knew where they would stand with their blossoming right fielder. He immediately paid off. 

Kepler was a key cog of the 2019 Bomba Squad that blasted a single-season record amount of home runs. His .855 OPS was a career-high, and his 36 dingers came out of nowhere. In the three years since, he has regressed to the average offensive player, he was previously while still playing Gold Glove defense.

With the emergence of corner outfield types such as Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner, Minnesota finds themselves at a point where offensive production could be the greater goal. Though the Winter Meetings are over, the front office has been laying the groundwork for a deal.

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noted that multiple teams have reached out to the Twins regarding their left-handed hitting outfielder. He’s not going to bring back a big piece, especially as the centerpiece of any deal, but the most recent Gleeman and the Geek episode featured a deeper dive into the conversation. Gleeman went on to note that there does seem to be a substantial amount of interest out there. While Kepler’s offensive deficiencies are well documented, he still has plenty of value overall. Given the multiple avenues they could explore, it seemed as though a Kepler deal may get pushed to the back burner from a timing perspective but could be considered more likely than not to happen.

On Monday, Joel Sherman reported that the New York Yankees had had conversations with the Twins regarding Kepler. They employed both Joey Gallo and Andrew Benintendi at points last season. They are intrigued by a reunion with the former Royals outfielder, but his price tag could touch $100 million after a strong 2022. Kepler is only owed $8.5 million this season and has a $10 million team option for 2024 or a $1 million buyout.

If the Yankees, or anyone else, were more inclined to go with a cheaper option and bet on Kepler providing a bit extra value without the shift, that’s where the intrigue comes in. Minnesota and New York have teamed up for trades previously, and they did send outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Bronx after John Ryan Murphy wowed them with a home run off of closer Glen Perkins.

The market for Kepler seems vast, and while we haven’t heard many different teams reported yet, Minnesota is likely keeping options close to the vest until they’re ultimately ready to move him. Nick Nelson recently wrote about the Seattle Mariners being a fit and their general manager Jerry Dipoto loving to make deals.

Mitch Haniger is no longer there, and while they did acquire Teoscar Hernandez, Kepler could be a great bridge guy until prospects Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell have proven they’re ready to take over. Playing alongside star centerfielder Julio Rodriguez would give the Mariners a similar defensive pairing to what Minnesota currently has with Byron Buxton in center.

No matter who emerges as the favorite to land Minnesota’s fan-favorite, it does seem like this continues to trend more towards a “when” and not “if” situation that Kepler is dealt.