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The Giants and Taylor Rogers reportedly agreed last Friday to a three-year deal worth $33 million. This kind of contract wouldn't have been to surprising had it been signed, say, mid-way through the 2021 season, during which Rogers was an All-Star for the Twins.
But he missed the last two months of that season with a finger injury, and then struggled his way through 2022 for two different teams, posting a 4.35 ERA for the Padres and then 5.48 down the stretch in Milwaukee.
His underlying metrics were not bad – we'll get to that shortly – and Rogers had a very strong prior track record. Also, we know the Giants had money to burn after whiffing on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.
Still... Thirty-three million dollars?! For a guy who had all the looks of a buy-low candidate fishing for a make-good deal? In this economy?!?
Even in a clearly inflated free agent market, I find this deal stunning and fascinating. Even if Rogers wasn't a top target for the Twins – sure seems that way – there are some implications worth exploring in terms of what this means for a potential pursuit of remaining free agent relievers.
First:
The cost for free agent relief pitching is astronomical.
We already knew this long before Rogers signed. Edwin Diaz struck the biggest payday for a relief pitcher in history. Roberto Suarez ($46M) and Rafael Montero ($34.5M) received contracts that are pretty much unprecedented for non-closers.
This contract for Rogers is merely another piece of supporting evidence to confirm what we already knew: in order to acquire impact relief pitching in free agency, the Twins will need to move well past their comfort zone.
To contextualize, the $33 million deal Rogers got coming off a bad year is twice the size of the largest contract the Twins have ever given a free agent reliever (2 years, $16.75 million for Addison Reed). At the time, Reed was an elite late-inning arm, coming off a great season and three years younger than Rogers is now.
Further context: if the Twins signed Rogers to the same deal he got from San Francisco, it would rank as the third-largest sum handed to a free agent in seven years under this front office (sixth-largest in franchise history). That distinction currently belongs to Christian Vazquez and his $30 million contract signed earlier this offseason.
And to reiterate, Rogers was NOT GOOD this past season. At no point was he a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota. The lefty was bad enough in San Diego that the championship-obsessed Padres traded for an upgrade in Josh Hader at the deadline (didn't quite work out). After getting traded to Milwaukee, Rogers posted a negative-1.02 Win Probability Added for a Brewers team that missed the postseason by ... one game.
Rogers was not only bad, but very consequentially bad, which is the same statement you can make about the guy Minnesota traded him for: Emilio Pagan. Would anyone have been excited about the Twins signing Rogers on these terms, even though it ostensibly meets the need to spend money and show initiative?
Actually, invoking Pagan brings me to the other big revelation from examining Rogers' new deal with the Giants:
Teams are paying for indicators over results.
I should clarify that when I say Rogers was bad last year, I mean his results were bad, not necessarily his underlying indicators of performance. Some would say that's a distinction without a difference, but to the Giants and whoever helped run up the bidding on Rogers, clearly it's not.
On the surface, the narrative seems clear:
- Rogers was plagued by a serious finger issue in 2021.
- The Twins traded him just ahead of the 2022 season, at least in part because they were concerned about lingering effects from that injury on an extremely slider-reliant pitcher.
- They were right. Rogers scuffled through the worst season of his career. And now the Giants, who just backed out of a mega-deal with Correa because of an eight-year-old ankle injury, are paying $33 million to inherit all of this risk and apparent decline.
But when you take a deeper look, this version of events doesn't quite hold up. If Rogers' finger was truly affecting him, you'd expect to see tangible signs of it: diminishing velocity, reduced spin rate, wayward control. None of that was really the case.
Rogers' 2.7 BB/9 rate was a bit high by his standards, but hardly terrible. His K/9 rate (11.8) and K% (30.7%) were both above his career benchmarks. His home run rate was typical (about one per nine innings).
There were no signs of trouble gripping and executing a featured slider that produced a .191 batting average and 38% whiff rate, while leaned on to a higher degree than ever before.
The Giants paid Rogers based on these qualities, not the ugly ERA or the season-altering breakdowns on the mound. Which is an interesting dynamic when you think about Pagan and the Twins.
Many of the same things we're saying here about Rogers can be applied to Pagan, whose contract tender from Minnesota in November raised a lot of ire from the fan base. The case for Pagan outperforming his peripherals isn't quite as compelling – he had a 4.21 FIP compared to 3.31 for Rogers – but in both cases, the stuff is undeniable and there's big upside beyond what we see on the stats page.
After seeing Rogers get $33 million from San Francisco, it becomes a bit easier to grasp the idea that Minnesota had several trade suitors lining up for Pagan, and that his projected $3.7 million contract could be viewed as somewhat of a bargain.
Of course, it's unlikely this will change anyone's opinion on Pagan. And bringing him back will certainly not stand on its own as a satisfactory approach to reinforcing the Twins bullpen, in anyone's eyes.
Luckily, there are still quite a few interesting arms out there on the free agent relief market, which has developed more slowly than starters and hitters. Assuming the Twins miss out on Correa again, and don't sign Nathan Eovaldi, there are few other obvious places to focus their remaining budget and make an impact.
Building a bullpen that is ultra-deep on quality options, to offset question marks in the rotation and protect against key reliever injuries or setbacks, would seem to be one of the few remaining paths for an offseason that legitimately positions the Twins as assertive contenders.
Read More: Looking Toward the Bullpen Market by Cody Pirkl
There's already a very solid foundation in place, so the addition of an arm or two like – say – Matt Moore or Andrew Chafin or even our old friend Michael Fulmer could have outsized benefit. But as the Rogers contract illustrates, none of these guys will be coming at a bargain and whichever route they go, the Twins will likely have to overpay on faith. Something this front office doesn't tend to do.
Yet, something's gotta give if the Twins want to demonstrate to their fans that they give a dang about making a push in 2023. Thus far their moves have felt more obligatory (Vazquez, Kyle Farmer) or confusing and lateral (Pagan, Joey Gallo) than strategic. The relief market offers opportunities for more purposeful, decisive upgrades ... if Minnesota's willing to meet the price.
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