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Reports are starting to surface about the possible path of the Twins taking a “step back” in 2023, with players such as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda starting to draw trade interest. Who could blame teams for asking? It sure appears the Twins had all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket, as just two of the top fifteen free agents remained at the time the Twins got news that their star shortstop had chosen to move to San Francisco.
The twins are left with a strikingly similar roster to their 2022 squad that finished in 3rd place of the soft AL Central, minus their most valuable player of course. Even if they turn to Joey Gallo and trade Max Kepler, it's hard to count on the trade off adding much value unless Gallo rebounds in a major way. With the cost of free agent pitchers and the Twins having three starters set to depart after 2023 in Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it may become tempting as teams begin offering impressive packages to pry them away. It's easy to look at investments in a new catcher and outfielder and see the intent to compete now, but a lack of further success in acquiring players and some tempting trade offers being dangled could definitely sway a team that still looks to be on the bubble. Unless the Twins have plans to replace one of these arms after trading them, this simply cannot be a solution.
Since the end of the 2010 season, the Twins have made the playoffs three times, being swept out on each occasion. They’ve been above .500 four times in those twelve seasons, including a six-year stretch from 2011 to 2016 in which the team was completely irrelevant. Since winning back-to-back AL Central division titles and appearing to be building steam as an up and coming core in 2019 and 2020, they’ve missed the playoffs twice, including in the inaugural expanded playoff season in 2022.
In short, it sure looks a whole lot like Twins fans have spent the majority of the last twelve years in misery. Their only payoff is back-to-back division titles resulting in an immediate exit from the playoffs. Is that the business model the Twins want to present to their fanbase by entering yet another rebuild? The Twins were already publicly disappointed by fan attendance in 2022. It’s safe to imagine those issues accelerating greatly with any steps back in attempting to compete. They also have a TV network negotiation on the horizon, a transaction the Twins will have little leverage in as the viewership numbers almost certainly crater.
From a pure baseball perspective, the Twins are in the easiest division in baseball with two more teams being admitted to the playoffs in the AL moving forward. They have one of the better rotations on paper that they’ve had in recent years. They still have star power and core contributors such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez on the position player side. With just a handful of acquisitions, the Twins could take the projected 78-81 wins they already have currently and easily become competitors. Having spent very little of the assumed $50m or so they had available coming into the offseason, deciding to take the easy way out would be a devastating decision for all parties involved.
The prospect of the Twins actually going this route sounds ridiculous, but you can imagine a situation where they can justify it to themselves. The front office wouldn’t go this route unless they had no concern about losing their jobs. It was very heavily expressed at the end of 2022 that ownership still had faith in Falvey and company. They’ve always operated with an eye on getting value, oftentimes at the expense of acquiring players that actually make the team better.
With the way free agent contracts have blown up on pitchers, this may be the most valuable time in history to trade pitchers such as Gray and Mahle who are only controlled for one year. There could be a scenario where they look at the dwindling free agent market and the likely inflated trade offers they receive and decide to once again side with value over acquiring quality players.
At this point, improving this team is going to hurt and likely draw scrutiny. The majority of impact will have to come from trade at the cost of organizational talent, a disappointing outcome considering the amount of money they should have had to spend on free agents. They did this to themselves though, and the alternative is simply unacceptable in regards to Twins fans who have spent far too much time and money watching a mediocre product. In 2023, a step back simply isn’t an acceptable conclusion.
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