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  • Sonny Gray Gives Twins a New Jose Berrios


    Ted Schwerzler

    Over the weekend, Derek Falvey flipped 2021 1st round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds for Sonny Gray. Minnesota needed a top-end starter, and they wound up with a guy who profiles very similar to someone Twins Territory is familiar with, Jose Berrios.

    Image courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last season the front office decided against extending Berrios and flipped him to the Toronto Blue Jays for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. Getting two-top 100 prospects for a guy under team control for just one more year was an excellent come-up for Minnesota. If they had decided against paying him, that level of return is certainly a welcomed one. They had to replace Berrios, though.

    Going back to 2019, Berrios owns a 3.66 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9. He’d put up dominant outings at times and then see late-season slides. Home runs got him every once in a while, but he was every bit a staff ace for Minnesota. After passing on virtually all of the free-agent starting pitching market, they found something of a clone. Looking back to 2019 for Gray, the Reds hurler owns a 3.49 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9.

    It's almost as if the Twins had determined they had a "type" when it comes to a frontline starter. Minnesota had squeezed more out of Berrios under pitching coach Wes Johnson, and while Grady is older, it's not crazy to think they may be able to teach him some new tricks. Gray exits a Reds team looking to tear everything down, and he also has the benefit of escaping a hitters paradise in Cincinnati.

    Berrios is the slightly harder thrower of the two, averaging 94 mph on his fastball. Gray has seen diminished velocity as he ages but still sits at 92.6 mph. Gray gives up less hard contact, but we’re splitting hairs on the differences between the two when it comes to whiff rates as well as CSW% (Called+Swinging Strike Percentage). Looking at each of their Statcast profiles from 2021, it’s actually Gray that sees the scales tilted his way when diving into more analytically based outputs.

    Another interesting note on Gray is that while he has seen diminished velocity, his stuff ranks extremely well. Highlighted multiple times by Rob Friedman's Pitching Ninja account, and noted in a tweet by The Athletic's Eno Sarris, there's more to pitching than simply pumping velocity. For Gray, as the fastball might have dipped, he's added substantial shape through movement to his pitches. In attempting to keep batters off balance Gray has worked on crafting pitches that miss bats. Although Minnesota's Johnson is seen as a velocity guru, it's the analytical additions to pitching development that have pushed guys to get more from their overall repertoire. Gray will have a whole new pool of information to work with.

    At the end of the day, Minnesota accomplished a few things in the entirety of their starting pitching scenario. They dealt a guy they weren’t going to pay and got peak value for him. They then acquired an older starter for a highly volatile return and have to pay him substantially less. All of that takes place while the on-field returns could very comfortably be projected to be even.
     
    Fangraphs’ ZiPS projects Gray for a 3.78 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 2022. The same projection system has Berrios at a 3.84 ERA and 9.3 K/9. If the track records of similarity don't provide something to key in on, there's at least an upcoming season in which both are expected to provide similar levels of value.

    What do you think about the Twins swap of top starters? Would you rather have Berrios purely from a pitching perspective, or are you good with Gray, the similarities, and all of the additional prospect capital?

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    20 minutes ago, Wax off said:

    In whose mind, Berrios or the poster?

    Could be both.

    You said that Toronto doesn't blow away TC in your mind.  I simply noted that perhaps it does in Berrios'.  Everyone likes different things and has other priorities.

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    18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I've provided literal quotes from Buxton's agent and can link the Hayes article if you have an Athletic subscription. 

    That's coming from agent and team officials, it's going to be rosy.

    But I found the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. It's on their Patreon page.

    Gleeman: "According to Dan Hayes"..."they were unwilling to give Buxton a full no trade clause in the talks in July"

     

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    2 minutes ago, Wax off said:

    That's coming from agent and team officials, it's going to be rosy.

    But I found the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. It's on their Patreon page.

    Gleeman: "According to Dan Hayes"..."they were unwilling to give Buxton a full no trade clause in the talks in July"

     

    That's what I assumed. If Buxton didn't want to be traded that's 1 more reason to keep him. How many impact players like Buxton would want to play here. Stupid on FO part not to jump all over that.

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    5 minutes ago, Wax off said:

    That's coming from agent and team officials, it's going to be rosy.

    But I found the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. It's on their Patreon page.

    Gleeman: "According to Dan Hayes"..."they were unwilling to give Buxton a full no trade clause in the talks in July"

     

    Where do you think Dan Hayes got the "unwilling to give Buxton a full no trade clause in the talks in July" from? So my Dan Hayes quotes aren't good because they come from an agent, team officials, and Buxton, but yours are good because they come from an agent, team officials, or Buxton? Feels a little off.

    But I'm still not sure what you think that quote is proving. Your original stance was "I had heard the Twins walked away from the same deal before the deadline." Is your argument now that everything was the same except the no trade clause? Are you arguing that the Twins rejected the same financial terms in July and then accepted those terms while also adding a no trade clause? You don't think the no trade clause was part of negotiations that was tied to some financials?

    Is your stance that Buxton wanted to be here so much that he waited until the Twins made no real effort to sign any high priced pitchers in FA and then they felt they were backed into a corner and had to sign Buxton so they threw in a no trade clause to get him to accept the deal that was on the table in July? Because following your chain of comments that seems to be what you're suggesting.

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    18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    .

    I heard that they caved on no trade clause as in my previous response. I believe they were motivated by their failure in FA to get it over the finish line.

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    46 minutes ago, Wax off said:

    I heard that they caved on no trade clause as in my previous response. I believe they were motivated by their failure in FA to get it over the finish line.

    Yeah, that's how negotiations work. Each side gives and they figure out a middle ground that works for both.

    Were there rumors I missed that the Twins were in on a bunch of free agents and missed? They extended Buxton before the lockout when there were still a bunch of FAs left. Like there still is. 

    Agree to disagree. You're allowed to have whatever beliefs you want. I just fail to see where they come from. To each their own.

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    27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    Yeah, that's how negotiations work. Each side gives and they figure out a middle ground that works for both.

    Were there rumors I missed that the Twins were in on a bunch of free agents and missed? They extended Buxton before the lockout when there were still a bunch of FAs left. Like there still is. 

    Agree to disagree. You're allowed to have whatever beliefs you want. I just fail to see where they come from. To each their own.

    Robbie Ray was the one I heard. They should've been aggressive in FA. Then you wouldn't have to give up last year's first round pick because you're desperate.

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    5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I don't disagree. I think it is likely a core part of their team building strategy to not spend big money on pitching extensions or free agents. At this point it seems silly to me to continue to beat the dead horse of the FO not spending on big money arms. They're not going to do it so why discuss it as a possibility when it clearly isn't?

    As much as I'd love "won't spend above X," to be a universally acknowledged truth on TD, it isn't, and arguments where contract amounts/length are at the center veer into bad faith territory (not accusing you of doing this) because of it. You're right, it's a dead horse, but we also need to acknowledge that removing an option from the table isn't the same thing as never having that option to begin with. 

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    7 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

    And you are basing this feeling on....what, exactly?

    I'll start with saying that I don't give a **** about rehashing whether or not Berrios should have been moved.

    The longest FA pitching contract in 6 seasons at the helm for this FO is 2 years. Their two largest trade acquisitions to date, Odorizzi and Gray, each had/have 2 years remaining. Rather than extend the best pitcher this franchise has had in nearly two decades (an admittedly low bar to clear) they opted to trade him with 1.5 years remaining. They completely sat out FA this offseason despite desperately needing arms. There's a ton of evidence/activity or lack thereof, that suggests this FO won't commit years or money to pitchers. That shouldn't be debatable at this point.

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    18 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    You're right, it's a dead horse, but we also need to acknowledge that removing an option from the table isn't the same thing as never having that option to begin with. 

    Well said. They still deserve blame for obeying their own self imposed boundaries.

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    6 hours ago, Wax off said:

    He signed up lon term for Toronto. What do they have that we don't?

    As far as what we know, why should I give them the benefit of the doubt. If they had their way I believe Buxton would've been traded even though willing to take a discount.

    Berrios said he really liked Toronto and it's diversity. Toronto is one of the most diverse cities in North America. A family from Puerto Rico might not feel at home in a city like Minneapolis. Could be something as personal as that. And, yes, we don't know.

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    1 hour ago, Wax off said:

    Well said. They still deserve blame for obeying their own self imposed boundaries.

    I'm not assigning fault, I'm adjusting the frame. It's going to be years before this "debate," is remotely close to settled. 

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    13 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Didn't want a new fake Berrios. Wanted Jose, who, regardless of how his agent negotiated, was willing to sign a fair extension. 

    This suggests that you think Berrios' agent did not act in a way Berrios desired.  I find that hard to believe.

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    7 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

    This suggests that you think Berrios' agent did not act in a way Berrios desired.  I find that hard to believe.

    Perhaps for you. I thought it suggests that people change their minds...... if given enough time. Sometimes in a day. Sometimes in a week. Sometimes in a month, and sometimes in a year. Berrios had 1 1/2 years to do it, and did it in quick order. His agent most likely did the messaging. 

    I know quite a few married couples that said no at first, too. It is fact that Berrios did sign an extension, instead of testing the free agent market in a year and a half as he said he was going to do, in pretty quick order, so speculate all you want. 

     

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    18 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Perhaps for you. I thought it suggests that people change their minds...... if given enough time. Sometimes in a day. Sometimes in a week. Sometimes in a month, and sometimes in a year. Berrios had 1 1/2 years to do it, and did it in quick order. His agent most likely did the messaging. 

    I know quite a few married couples that said no at first, too. It is fact that Berrios did sign an extension, instead of testing the free agent market in a year and a half as he said he was going to do, in pretty quick order, so speculate all you want. 

     

    Berrios did indeed sign an extension.  With Toronto.  Perhaps that is not a salient detail.  Or maybe it is the only salient detail; speculate all you want.

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