Seth's Offseason Blueprint

We’ll start with the 40-man roster decisions (which will be made on Friday) and work through the arbitration decisions, free agency and a couple of trades. In the end, we’ll see what kind of payroll we’re looking at for 2017.

40-Man Roster Decisions

Earlier this week, I wrote an article showing the top ten players (or more) that the Twins have to consider adding to their 40-man roster or risk losing in the Rule 5 draft.

The team is currently sitting at 36 players on their 40-man roster. At this time, I would remove Juan Centeno, Danny Santana and Buddy Boshers to reduce that number to 33.

I would then ADD pitchers Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge, catcher Mitch Garver, shortstop Engelb Vielma and outfielders Daniel Palka and Zack Granite to the 40-man roster. That puts the team at 39, allowing them to make a Rule 5 draft pick.

Arbitration Decisions

Trevor Plouffe ($9M): Decline. Certainly I would try to trade him, or include him in a trade first, but I think that it makes the most sense for the Twins to non-tender him.

Hector Santiago ($8M): Accept. Not an easy choice, but Santiago posted ERAs of 3.75 or less all four years from 2012-2015. 2016 didn’t go as well, but I’ll take my chances. Again, the Twins need pitching, and he’s been solid.

Eduardo Escobar ($3.5M): Accept. Really a pretty easy choice, but I like the fact that he’s a great team player and has found success in a utility role. The fact that he can play a solid shortstop also is valuable with question marks at the position.

Kyle Gibson ($2.5M): Accept. He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, and injury and ineffectiveness and inconsistency all describe his 2016. So, 2017 is a big year for the right-hander. For the price, worth the time to find out.

Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M): After missing a lot of 2015 with a knee injury, Kintzler came to the Twins on a minor league deal. He was up with the Twins within about a month and ended up their closer. He may not be the prototype for a closer, but he hits 94, throws strikes, lots of grounders. Again, for the money, no reason not to bring him back.

Ryan Pressly ($1.5M): Former Rule 5 pick frequently hit 96-98 on the radar gun a year ago. Pitched way too much early and it certainly affected him as the season went on. However, his stuff is good, and definitely worth keeping around.

FREE AGENCY

CATCHER

I’m in agreement that the Twins should sign a catcher. I just have a hard time handing out a long-term, big money contract to a catcher who either is, or is about to reach, 30 years old. So, count me out on the likes of Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters, and I’m thinking that the market for Jason Castro will cause him to potentially get a fourth year or more per year than many think.

So, what do I want in a catcher? Ideally, I’d like to see a good defensive catcher. With John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver in the picture, I would like to see a left-handed bat on a one-year contract. Enter the likes of Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila. Give me Avila on a one-year deal with a base between $2-2.5 million with some incentives based on playing time. He’s a smart catcher who plays good defense. He also knows the American League Central well.

I would like to see nearly a 50-50 split between John Ryan Murphy and Alex Avila to start the season, taking advantage of platoon splits as appropriate. Mitch Garver is close, so he can be recalled if (or when) there is an injury. Murphy is good defensively, and he will (most likely) hit much better than he did last year. Plus, he’s still going to be 25 years old until the middle of May.

BULLPEN

First, I hope Glen Perkins comes back and becomes the reliever we remember. I also feel that assuming that will happen is a little naive (maybe) and should not be relied upon, at least not to start the season. So, I won’t include him, and I will hope really hard that he is able to come back.

Second, I believe in the young arms that are working their way up. However, as we have seen, it doesn’t always happen as fast as we want. AA and AAA aren’t necessarily easy, and despite college or low-minor league level success, adjustments need to be made and lessons learned. Of course, injuries also factor into the timeline. JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and others have all missed significant time due to injuries. Trevor Hildenberger missed August with an elbow injury. So, as much as I would like to see these guys all come up and become what we think they can be, we need to have alternate plans. That said, I am hopeful that we will see Burdi, Melotakis, Hildenberger and Jake Reed by midseason.

So, I want to bring in one hard-throwing, strikeout reliever. I’ve been a big fan of David Hernandez since well before his 2013 Tommy John surgery. In 2016, he struck out 80 (and walked 32) in 72.2 innings for the Orioles. His overall numbers aren’t great, so I’d offer him a 1 year, $3.75 million deal which includes an option for 2018 at $4.5 million (with a $250,000 buyout). I would give him the opportunity to close, along with Ryan Pressly and JT Chargois.

TRADE

I am not a fan of trading Brian Dozier. At all. Losing him would certainly hurt the team’s offense significantly. Moving Jorge Polanco to second based and putting someone else at shortstop will hurt offensively especially. So, in order for me as GM to deal him, I will have to receive a top young starting pitcher. Someone who is right up there with Jose Berrios (or higher) in prospect rankings but also at or very near the big league level. And more, since as we know, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

Recently, it was reported that the Dodgers are exploring the idea of acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Tigers. Kinsler has a no-trade clause, and he’s five years older than Dozier. Certainly the Falvey/Levine regime has already had some sort of discussion with the Dodgers regarding Dozier.

One of Nick’s ideas in the Offseason Handbook for a Dozier Deal involved Jose De Leon. Like Jose Berrios, De Leon is a right-hander from Puerto Rico. He was the Dodgers 24th round pick in 2013 out of college in Louisiana. MLB Pipeline currently ranks De Leon as their #32 prospect, the 6th best right-handed pitching prospect in baseball. This is the same range that Berrios was a year ago.

It would take a bit more for me to pull the trigger on the deal though. I would like Ross Stripling, who turns 27 next week, who had a solid debut in 2016. He pitched for Chattanooga in 2013 before missing the entire 2014 season and the first half of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery. Another year post surgery and there is a chance he can be a mid-rotation starter.

The other player I would ask for is veteran Scott Van Slyke. The 30-year-old outfielder has been a part-time player throughout his career. However, in his career, he has hit .262/.366/.479 (.845) against left-handed pitching. I would like to see him platooned with Eddie Rosario in left field. With Rosario and Kepler able to play centerfield at times to give Buxton a day off, the Twins don’t really need a traditional fourth outfielder. Van Slyke is in his first year of arbitration. His 2016 season ended in early August with a wrist injury. (If the Twins can get Van Slyke I would DFA Robbie Grossman. If the Twins can’t get Van Slyke, Grossman remains the 4th outfielder.)

I would add Michael Tonkin to the deal as well. (Don’t get me wrong. I fully admit that if Tonkin isn’t traded in the offseason, he would be removed from the 40-man roster, if it were me. But a deal to the Dodgers would at least send him to a winning team in his home state. With Justin Turner potentially being lost via free agency, the Dodgers may have interest in Trevor Plouffe.

And if I don’t get a top, near-ready pitching prospect and a second-tier, near-ready starting pitching for him, I have a hard time trading him. I would happily keep him on the roster.

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Before getting to my Roster Blueprint, be sure to download a copy of the Offseason Handbook so that you can create your own Twins blueprint.

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Seth’s Blueprint Roster

HITTERS

C - John Ryan Murphy - $0.5M

C - Alex Avila - $2.5M

1B - Joe Mauer - $23.0M

2B - Jorge Polanco - $0.5M

3B - Miguel Sano - $0.5M

SS - Engelb Vielma - $0.5M

LF - Eddie Rosario - $0.5M

CF - Byron Buxton - $0.5M

RF - Max Kepler - $0.5M

DH - Kennys Vargas - $0.5M

IF - Eduardo Escobar - $3.5M

OF - Scott Van Slyke - $1.3M

PH/1B - Byungho Park - $2.75M

HITTER TOTAL - $37.05M

The theme is much more defense-minded, which should also help the pitching. Murphy and Avila will help behind the plate. Polanco should be better at second base than shortstop. The outfield is young, has great range and good arms. Finally, the name that stands out is Engelb Vielma. Will he hit? Will he hit for power? Nope. Don’t even think about it. Will he play great defense, showing hands, range and a big arm? Yes. The offense will take a step backwards, but the defense should be leaps and bounds better. Except at third base where it will be all about the offense. There are several platoon opportunities including first base DH and left field. Having Escobar will be important as Vielma transitions to the big leagues.

PITCHERS

SP - Ervin Santana - $13.5M

SP - Hector Santiago - $8.0M

SP - Kyle Gibson - $2.5M

SP - Ross Stripling - $0.5M

SP - Jose De Leon/Adalberto Mejia/Jose Berrios - $0.5M

STARTING PITCHERS TOTAL - $25.0M

Weird things seem to happen, whether it is injury or poor performance. Having plenty of depth at starting pitcher is important. At some point, De Leon, Mejia and Berrios will be part of the rotation. Trading Santana this winter doesn’t make sense to me, but I would consider trading him at the deadline in July. The same can be said for Santiago. The five starting pitchers who began the season in Ft. Myers and ended in Chattanooga (Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Randy Rosario and Felix Jorge) along with Fernando Romero likely won’t be ready until at least 2018. This gives them a chance to develop at their own, appropriate pace, while the three (or four) younger starters mentioned above get their shot in the big leagues.

RP - David Hernandez ($3.75M)

RP - Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M)

RP - JT Chargois ($0.5M)

RP - Ryan Pressly ($0.5M)

RP - Taylor Rogers ($0.5M)

RP - Trevor May ($0.5M)

RP - Tyler Duffey ($0.5M)

BULLPEN PITCHERS TOTAL - $8.75M

In the bullpen, there are some solid arms with a lot of talent and velocity who need innings and situations in the big leagues. That will soon be the case for others, like Pat Light, Reed, Burdi, Hildenberger, and Melotakis who should all surface in 2017 as well. The bullpen could be dominant in 2018. I would retain Ryan O'Rourke as the guy ready to come up when the Twins are ready to face a lot of lefties or just need an arm.

Also under contract - Glen Perkins ($6.5M) and Phil Hughes ($13.2M).

Total Roster Salary - $90.5M

SUMMARY

$90.5 million. Yeah, that’s right. And when some read that, it will not be taken well. But I’m thinking 2018 and 2019 more than I’m thinking 2017. So I have a mix of youth with a few veterans. But it’s all about development of the young players, whether that is at-bats or innings pitched in the big leagues, or allowing a little extra time in AA or AAA to be more ready.

Think about a 2018 rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Jose De Leon, Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves, all guys who could be Top 100 prospects sometime between 2016 and 2017. Add in the potential of Fernando Romero and the pitching staff has the ability to be different and exciting by the second half of 2019.

While the focus was mostly on defense with my moves at catcher and shortstop, the offense should be OK, even with the losses of Dozier and Plouffe. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park could all be better offensively too.

I strongly considered Jason Castro, but it seems like he is going to wind up getting more than the three years, $21 million that we predicted. His defense is great, but his offense isn’t worth the extra year or extra annual salary he will get. I couldn't justify that for a guy who will turn 30 during the middle of year one of such a deal.

I did also consider Ian Desmond as a free agent signing at shortstop. He had a nice 2016 in his one-year, make-good deal with the Rangers. He played in the outfield and hit pretty well. But, he isn’t a great defensive shortstop and his offense went downward for three straight seasons before 2016. So, four years and $60 million (or more) seemed too much. If he would sign for two years and $32-35 million, I would strongly consider it.

It’s not the time for the Twins to sign one of the not-so-great starting pitching options. It doesn’t make sense to spend a ton of money on a closer. It’s time to let the players that Terry Ryan and his regime developed play in the big leagues. In doing so, it’ll likely mean ten to 15 more wins than in 2016. And, maybe spend that extra $10 million adding to the front office staff, the analytics team, the medical staff and other areas in need of being beefed up.

So, what do you think? 2017 is about improvement and development. It’s an opportunity for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to evaluate everything, from the players on the field to the size and functionality of the front office.