Randy Dobnak, The Underrated Marcus Stroman?

Personally, I think few believe Stroman is anything but an ACE. A nice pitcher, but not an ACE.

There was a time, not so long ago, when pitching low in the zone, or having "heavy" stuff was considered a positive. "Pitching to contact", in regard to the "old" Twins mantra never meant let the other team get hits, but rather, throw strikes, mkve your pitches around, and let the hitter get themselves out.

In the sudden new age of high barrel rates and launch angles, we are talking about velocity and pitching high so batters get themselves out. But at the end of the day, outs are outs. If Dobnak is more old school in his process, who cares. If he relies more on weak contact and grounders I'm all in.

Stroman is a decent pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson might be a better one. 2 years younger than Balazovic and at the same level of pitching. Toronto did not do all that poorly for a year and a half of Stroman. Dobnac has 30 innings in the major leagues. What he is or can be is really yet to be determined

Yes, Dobnak may regress in 2020.  Or he might not.  Really think he can take that 5th starter role and run with it.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a nice long career with the Twins...assuming they ever play again!

I love stats, but past performance does not, etc. Dobnak's sample size is so low that leaning to 2020 regression could be a lean in the wrong direction. Subjectively, I love Dobnak's makeup, his durability and the fact that he's flown under the radar. I'd bet on another leg up on trajectory before Dobnak reverts to mean.

 

If anything is due for a reversion to mean, it's 2019's MLB-wide fly-ball and homerun rate. Somewhere, methinks there's a finger on the scale down in the depths of the Rawlings organization and someone said, "we overdid it in 2019." We'll see.

I know people have talked about it, but for some reason I just don't think MLB will "de" juice the ball. Could you imagine all the fly balls that were hit last year and now none of them leave the park? We will have a lot of low scoring baseball games. To the point where I think MLB would be very scared to the point where they may lose viewership. You know and I know that lineups have been constructed to mash, and if the ball is changed to the point that it doesn't go as far then all of the lineups out there would have a tough time producing. I don't know for sure, but I just don't think MLB will mess with that. Not right now.

I know people have talked about it, but for some reason I just don't think MLB will "de" juice the ball. Could you imagine all the fly balls that were hit last year and now none of them leave the park? We will have a lot of low scoring baseball games. To the point where I think MLB would be very scared to the point where they may lose viewership. You know and I know that lineups have been constructed to mash, and if the ball is changed to the point that it doesn't go as far then all of the lineups out there would have a tough time producing. I don't know for sure, but I just don't think MLB will mess with that. Not right now.

I like what you are saying and see it as a real possibility. I also, however, see that MLB has the ability to screw up almost anything. Time will tell.

Wow.  I know that the MLB suspension is affecting people, but come on.  Comparing a guy with like 30 innings in the majors to any veteran is the height of folly.  Referring to the “small sample size” doesn’t allow you to then ignore it.

The next thing you know, someone’s going to write an article rating the Twins on a scale of handsomeness.....

I do think Dobnak has a good chance to become a mid-ro horse, possibly better. If he develops a high 4-seamer ala Odo's heater, that would make his low zone stuff even more effective. 

Don't forget that it wasn't just 28 innings in the majors but another 135 innings in the minors combining for 163 innings of below 2.00 ERA.    Predicting progression, regression or maintaining isn't really that much different that looking at Berrios' body of work and predicting he will advance to the next level simply because  other pitchers with his history did make the leap.   I wasn't kidding when I said Dobnak should be #4 to start the season and Bailey, and others should be fighting for the #5 spot.    The idea that a guy that used to pitch well but has been somewhere between ok and bad the past 5 years is more likely to pitch well than the guy that actually pitched well last year makes little sense to me.   Sure, give the #5 spot edge to Bailey.   #4 spot edge should be to Dobnak.

I keep wondering who might be the overrated Marcus Stroman.

 

Seems like other teams manage to pop out these serviceable major leaguers from solid but not stellar prospects, out of nowhere almost. Maybe it's our turn.

You know, I think you could almost compare Dobnak to Arraez, despite being a pitcher vs a position player. Arraez, while thought of decently, was never a TOP prospect. But all he did was perform. There was even debate as to whether he should be included on the 40 man last year by some. But his HIT ability and bat control is amazing, as we all have seen. And now he's a darling, and well deserved. Dobnak, though with less time in the system, does nothing but perform as well. He doesn't throw 96 or have a wipe out slider, etc, but be performs and even dominates. When he gets his shot, he does nothing but impress, though granted it was in a smaller SS.

Dobnak just seems to knkw how to pitch, how to get outs, Stroman comparison or not. Do we not embrace his potential because he doesn't have the BIG ARM? Or are we just jaded from the Twins NOT producing much from the system for several years now?

Minors Career [+] 5 teams  Minors 14 11 3.32 45 30 1 0 0 0 178.2 156 76 66 16 5 54 0 212 .231 1.18 1.35

Minors Career [+] 5 teams  Minors 24 9 2.57 54 45 2 0 1 1 297.1 267 96 85 15 10 60 0 216 .239 1.10 1.42

without cheating, who is who? Dobnak and Stroman

Just sayin :-)