Projecting the 2023 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

In 2021 fans were saying that 2022 was a bridge year and 2023 we should be all in.  What happened?  Well the team was competitive in a bad division until the last month or so.  Then injuries and management over estimating player development.  Overhyping young players that have not shown that much.  The result has been terrible baseball the past two years.  Now some people are saying we are in a soft rebuild.  2023 looks bleak as again the team is relying on what ifs, lofty projections, rookies, and prospects.  Hype and hope.  That's what the Twins sell.  That's what a lot of fans eat up.  If they don't improve the next year or two a new direction is needed in FO and on field management.  

I see the current roster as a 70-75 win team.

A 1-2 SP and maybe corner outfield power would be two ways to get to 80-85.

A healthy Mahle, Gray and Maeda has to be an improvement. We never really got to see the potential in Mahle.

I'm OK keeping the payroll down over going with an aging player/huge contract.

4 hours ago, Teddy said:

Personally, I'm OK with most of the roster. If I were Falvine, I'd use 2023 to get the kids some experience. I'd like to see Kepler, Pagan and Sonny Gray traded for prospects, and likely move Maeda at the trade deadline. The team needs to know what they have in Varland, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lee, Lewis (when he's healthy again), etc. The only way to find that out is to give them time in the big leagues.  Once you find out who is for real this year, you can supplement next year with FAs to fill the gaps and make a run, but giving 13 years to Correa or six to an oft-injured Rodon is not fiscally responsible. I'd rather watch the kids grow this year than be saddled with those contracts.

I'm actually very OK with this approach with a couple of tweaks. I wouldn't trade Gray; I'd try to re-sign him for 2-3 more years. Given the injury issues in the projected starting 5 there will be at least 20-25 starts available for Varland, Winder and SWR to cover for guys on the IL, probably more. I would add a RH hitting 1B/LF/DH type - either Trey Mancini or Wil Myers seems to fit that bill. I'm assuming Kepler will be traded for a solid BP arm or prospects, so leaves open ABs for Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Gordon (also as the backup SS/2B/CF).  Use this year as more "competitive rebuild".  75-85 win team depending on health and whether the young guys step forward or fall back as a group. 2024 is the competitive window year.  

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Kepler and Maeda get traded if they can find a decent return.  

That's true, but who really wants a 35 year old SP with elbow issues and a decent corner OF with injuries?

I think the most would be a handful of c prospects, or a decent OF, which already have too much of. We are trying to get solid SP, not what we have 

Kepler and/or Maeda is not going to get us a good SP, you're right. They might get us some decent prospects, particularly Kepler. I'm in the camp of trading Kepler for prospects but not packaging him with Arraez to get a decent but not great SP.  I think we need Arraez' bat. This lineup is at least 2 bats short as it is unless the young guys step up.   

1 hour ago, Malachi said:

 

That's true, but who really wants a 35 year old SP with elbow issues and a decent corner OF with injuries?

I think the most would be a handful of c prospects, or a decent OF, which already have too much of. We are trying to get solid SP, not what we have 

I guess I should have prefaced Maeda with "assuming he is healthy".  They might wait until the deadline and establish he is healthy.  Ideally, Paddack will be back by then and add some depth.  Kepler has decent value.  He is not fetching a good SP but there is value in other forms.  Established players are traded for prospects far more often than they are traded for other established players and that's the form a trade for Kepler would likely take.

yeah, that's true and I forgot paddack 

Shocked at how many of you are assuming Keps is traded.  I hope like heck you are wrong.  Also don’t agree with those comments saying he is often injured.  If memory serves, he was their iron man until the last year or two.  And his injury wouldn’t have lasted anywhere near as long last year had the Twins not needed to play him early while injured.

I expect Max to be a Twin next year and with the shifts not messing with his head the results are going to be more like 2019 than 2022.

Looked at Spotrac.com.  Twins are 21st in salary but just as bad is they only have 5 veteran players.   Of those only 3 position/every day players.   Buxton is one and really can’t be counted on to be in the FIELD everyday.  Kepler who doesn’t seem like a leader.  Last vet is Polanco probably the best bet for some veteran leadership.    One thing that is huge to me is lack of a power hitting DH.   

I would trade Kepler to Colorado for German Marquez.  BTV's match up.  Or, trade him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel.  Again, BTV's match up.

I would sign Aroldis Chapman to a one-year contract.

I'd be open to moving Arraez and Larnach and a little more in a package for Pablo Lopez.  Maybe Arraez for Edward Cabrera.  We need to move at least one of our LH hitting outfielders.  Arraez's trade value is as high as it's going to get.  I'm looking forward to seeing Julien at some point.

Failing a trade for a SP I would sign Nathan Eovaldi.  JD Martinez would be helpful and he might actually bounce back a little.  But we use the DH as a revolving door post Nellie Cruz.  Failing a trade for a RH hitting OF'er just sign Wil Myers already!  He's a perfect fit.  Then let as much youth play as possible to find out more of what we've got.

First off, I would not pencil in Maeda for the rotation. He is in year one of his recovery from TJ surgery, and it is my observation that most pitchers are merely shells of their former selves until year two.  He may be the exception, and I hope so, but I wouldn't count on him. However, the rest of the rotation is much improved compared to how we started out last year. 

Secondly, I should think that Miranda is going to get off to a much better start this season. Remember how bad he was for the first two months last year? I'm betting that those rookie jitters or whatever, are out of his system now and we'll see much better results right from the get -go. 

Thirdly, the catching position has been upgraded tremendously over last year. That drop off, from Garver to Sanchez,  was an epic fail. The team never recovered. Now we have one of the top catchers in the league to replace him. 

Next, the Twins apparently didn't know what they had last year in Arreaz.  He wasn't in the line up regularly at the start. But now we know, you have the American League batting champion on the team, and you just don't sit him on the bench.  So what if he has to DH? He should play every day.

Also, last year we got a peek at Larnach and Wallner at ML level and results were encouraging. Yes, Larnach was injured, but if he is healthy again I think we have our corner outfielders.  I try not to wear my rose-colored glasses too often, but I am excited about those guys like I was about Hrebk and Giaetti when they came up. 

Lastly, I have to mention AK and Royce Lewis. If those two players come back healthy and play anywhere near their potential, well that would just send this team right to the top. Without them, maybe this team would be like the oh, say, the 1984 version of the Twins - young, pretty bad overall, but on the way up.  I would not give up on this team.

With 2 knee injuries ALREADY.  I am not counting on Lewis to ever be the player we all hoped he would be.  Most likely more knee problems going forward.  Trade him now for pitching while he still has some value.

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

A good roster for a 500 team.  Take Luis Arraez out and who gets on base.  Let's hope the young players really step forward and the next man up is able to take the mound with authority.

So does it matter then? If Arraez is the only one that can hit and he doesn't have power or speed he is stranded on first. Also nobody will be on base so he won't drive anyone in. And the new metrics he isn't the leadoff hitter and he should be.

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Looked at Spotrac.com.  Twins are 21st in salary but just as bad is they only have 5 veteran players.   Of those only 3 position/every day players.   Buxton is one and really can’t be counted on to be in the FIELD everyday.  Kepler who doesn’t seem like a leader.  Last vet is Polanco probably the best bet for some veteran leadership.    One thing that is huge to me is lack of a power hitting DH.   

If you can place a special bat in the DH spot and leave him there daily, maybe he can play 1B once in a while or another spot, I'm OK with having that spot primarily filled by that one guy. Think Cruz for reference. And no question the Twins need to add another bat somewhere. But there's another way to look at the DH spot.

ANY sort of "normal" health, and maybe a little bit of luck, the Twins lineup should feature some variation ofLarnach, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff, RH bat TBD, Maeda, Polanco, Arraez, catcher, and SS. That's, potentially, a pretty good 1-7 with at least a decent bottom 2 of catcher and SS. There is room to just roll one of those bats through the DH spot for a half day off for someone, and keep your best players engaged daily. Further, if you have a unique bat like Arraez taking up the DH spot on a regular basis...example, not saying he doesn't ever play in the field...there's nothing wrong with having a bat that sets the table, advances runners, gets clutch hits, but isn't a power plant.

I think the Twins prefer that approach, and it's always made sense to me. Have the best lineup you can, keep everyone sharp by playing, and roll through the DH. I, personally, only like a fixture at DH if he's pretty special.

I might be forgetting someone, but the best options remaining to add a potentially really solid bat are Martinez, Gallo, Myers, and Mancini. Myers remains my #1 target as he can play a solid OF, boosting his roster flexibility. I like Mancini quite a bit for his bat and 1B ability. I doubt he plays the OF any better than Garlick at this point, but he still can a little, and I think is a better overall producer than Garlick. Can Martinez play the OF at all any longer? 36 games in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. I still like his bat! But do we/the Twins want a maybe DH only? Gallo fits the idea of playing the OF, but bats LH, and so much swing and miss to go with his power. Don't we have enough young LH OF talent to play instead? And far less expensive, along with upside?

I've got Myers #1 on my list with Mancini #2. Martinez makes sense if he can play OF AT ALL, and if you are worried about Kirilloff coming back. Then you start to think a little more about Arraez at 1B full time and open up DH more for that one guy.

32 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

With 2 knee injuries ALREADY.  I am not counting on Lewis to ever be the player we all hoped he would be.  Most likely more knee problems going forward.  Trade him now for pitching while he still has some value.

I fully appreciate your concern and pessimism. It makes sense. But I'm going to fight your concern, even if it involves a tinge of hope. :)

Lewis is young and a tremdous athlete. He was everything hoped for in 2022 at St Paul and in his short time with the Twins, showing zero loss of any ability. In fact, he was as fast and athletic as he was pre-injury. Now, I don't know that he rushed back, but maybe. I don't know that his initial injury wasn't performed properly, but maybe. His injury last year just looked like a freaky way of landing that caused his 2nd tear.

Modern medicine is pretty crazy good in regard to injuries such as this. The new grafting techniques used for TJ and knees, where a supporting mesh is added, look very promising. It's important to note Lewis' second injury was only a partial tear. And again, he's young, athletic, and also a very dedicated worker. I do believe the Twins will be cautious with him and not rush him. His knee needs to be sound, of course. And we are all hoping for that. And IF he loses half a step, he goes from elite to very good. 

Fortunately, we aren't talking about a running back, wide receiver, etc, playing football. He just needs to be structurally sound. I'm betting he will be. But again, I think the Twins will be cautious. If it takes until July, or even August, so be it. But I'm betting on him.

In my opinion, the deepest market left in free agency is relief pitching.  I might consider adding 2-3....Chafin, Fulmer, etc. Maybe even a 1-year "prove it" deal for Taylor Rogers.  Those and similar others should be available for $4-$8 million per season.  If things go south, at the trade deadline we'll hopefully have some chips to replenish our prospect pool that we drained some last year.

So now the team is being run by Stand-Pat Gillick...

11 hours ago, darin617 said:

So does it matter then? If Arraez is the only one that can hit and he doesn't have power or speed he is stranded on first. Also nobody will be on base so he won't drive anyone in. And the new metrics he isn't the leadoff hitter and he should be.

Of course it mattes which is why we need Miranda who showed an ability to hit with RISP and we need Larnach and Kiriloff to do what they are capable of. 

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1. Sign Swanson. 

2. Move Kiriloff to the OF; Celestino goes to St. Paul.

3. Trade Kepler for a solid relief pitcher, add Wallner, trade/drop Pagan 

4a.  Add an additional solid FA relief pitcher, drop Megill or Moran; or

4b. Insert Rodon in the Rotation; Ober or Maeda goes to the pen; or

4c. Sign a better RH OF bat (not sure who); Garlick goes to St. Paul; or 

5. Do none of the above, sell big time at the deadline, draw 1.5MM at best, and let the young guys (Lee, Lewis, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, and Henriquez) play in August and September. Oh, and look for a new FO and Manager.

 

 

Leave infield alone.

Sign Eovaldi. Move Maeda to pen. Either Alcala or Megill to St. paul. …….Megill needs a 3rd pitch for show about 15% of pitches - his plus curve & plus fastball could be devastating. Now guys sit on one or the other.

Sign Fulmer & drop Pagan! Simple.

Celestino was about our organization’s 8th outfielder last year. He can’t be on 26 man roster. Average CF - mediocre hitter at best - can’t run bases. Gordon played back-up to Buxton before all the young corner outfielders got hurt - then had to fill in for Polanco. This forced us into using Celestino.

Sign J.D. Martinez (maybe more $ than worthwhile production) or Evan Longoria….he’s 37……little back-up at 3rd & DH role. David Duvall as corner OF & occasional DH? One of these types to displace Celistino on roster. Can’t carry 6 outfielders unless drawing the DH from this group regularly.

Eovaldi strengthens & adds depth to Starters & Maeda/Fulmer in the Pen makes it formidable with Lopez our weakest link. Have we signed a new pitching coach??

Have money left to extend pitchers during the ‘23 season. This is key with Maeda - Gray - Mahle all free to move on. Pick the strong performers into June.

This team as stands is a dumpster fire. There was zero chance CC was signing with a club that finished the season like they did. Going from first place in late June to completely free falling wasn't on him. No one stepped up to right the sinking ship.  We have been played once again by the front office while taking their word that they are/were looking to to spend money to try and field a competitive team... clue they weren't and most likely knew their offer to CC wasn't going to get it done.  

What is this teams strength? OF is really bad, No true 1st base experience, Kirloff? Always hurt. 3rd base was traded away for an unproven player...SS a joke, 2nd base,  Polanco struggled in 2002 at the plate and to stay healthy. Starting rotation, we saw how they fared the last two months of the season. BP could be decent and most likely the strength of the team.  And a manager that the players weren't happy with in how he used them. Optimistically a 65-70 win team.

I am wondering if the plan is now to take a step back and see what we have and then fill holes the next offseason.  But  nothing the Twins have to sell will bring super prospects back.  Though Gray and Maeda might bring better prospects.  

So we are basically better off this year except we dont have correa. I’d bet on the young players developing and 2-3 of them having breakout years. We still can’t compete well in the playoffs but alot can change by the trade deadline. Maybe we can sign 1 more decent starter just for insurance. 

We have covered for Sano's absence now that we have and his 79 OPS+   Sorry Joey, but you do not make up for Correa, Rodon, or any other random FA.