Previewing 3 Club Options Facing the Twins

No more sano  ....

Pick up option  ,,,, Gray is adequate  and in the price range for a #2 starter , not sure I would extend him as he has injury issues  and hasn't shown enough to me to extend him , he's had a steadycareer ... 

Bundy  , first free agent pitcher the twins signed before the lock out and everyone was beside themselves and I was one of them   ...

Actually  I have come to like Bundys bulldog composure , yes he doesn't throw above 90 but man the guy gives it everything he's got ... I don't think Bundy is worth  11 million  , buy him out for 1 million  and renegotiate  a 5 million  deal  for depth ,  otherwise  let him go  ...

Bye bye sano 

5 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The reason the starters are limited to 4-5 innings, is as much to do with limiting their workload for the year, as it is limiting their exposure to the opposing lineup. Going to a 4 man rotation increases workload on pitchers who haven’t pitched 150 innings before, or haven’t in several years. The market inefficiency on injured starters tends to reduce available capacity for innings pitched

An old school guy would say that is what your minor league system is for.  You take a young, healthy pitcher you drafted or traded for, and you slowly stretch him out throughout his development.  If he proves capable, you bring him along as a starter; if he shows he can't handle the workload, but can do well in much shorter stints, you bring him along as a reliever.  Babying him in the minors because you are afraid he will get hurt on his way to the majors, and then babying him in the majors because you are scared of him getting hurt from too much work, the work he should have gotten in the minors, is what has gotten us into the position we find ourselves in year after year.  Maybe todays guys should have gone to our school.    

Obviously Sano is gone. Obviously Grey is signed.  And it should be obvious that Bundy is gone.  With the expected departure of CC, the Twins will have plenty of money to add another top tier starter to compliment Grey, Ryan, and Mahle.  Adding a legit #1 (Correa's money will get you that) gives the Twins an imposing top 4.  Royce Lewis has proven himself MLB ready and can slide right into SS when he is healthy which should not be too late into the season.   

On the one hand everyone commenting on here is willing to let Sano walk and on the other hand our lack of hitting is what has pushed to two games down in the standings...

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

One the one hand everyone commenting on here is willing to let Sano walk and on the other hand our lack of hitting is what has pushed to two games down in the standings...

I don't think we will miss his .083 average / wRC+ of 7 or his negative WAR.  We have Kirilloff / Arraez and Miranda at 1B.  Why on earth would we want to take up a roster spot with Sano?  I will be very happy to roll with those three and add a $11M BP arm or spend $23M on a top of the rotation SP instead of a $12M average SP.

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There aren't many great pitchers available next year. They'll have to outbid everyone for one of three, maybe four. 

35 year old deGrom can opt out, Eovalid, Nola has a club option, Rodon can opt out, Manaea, Kershaw, and Bassitt has a mutual option. That seems like the best and I bet the Twins get none of them.

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think we will miss his .083 average / wRC+ of 7 or his negative WAR.  We have Kirilloff / Arraez and Miranda at 1B.  Why on earth would we want to take up a roster spot with Sano?  I will be very happy to roll with those three and add a $11M BP arm or spend $23M on a top of the rotation SP instead of a $12M average SP.

Those stats are from a very small sample size and Kiriloff can't stay healthy.  Not to mention one of the other two will probably regress a bit.

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

35 year old deGrom can opt out, Eovalid, Nola has a club option, Rodon can opt out, Manaea, Kershaw, and Bassitt has a mutual option. That seems like the best and I bet the Twins get none of them.

 

James Taillon is also a free agent.  It's hard to see the Yankee's letting him walk but they obviously did not extend him so who knows, it might be possible .  Bassitt is a very similar scenario in terms of being with a big spending team but he will definitely opt out.  Phillies will definitely pick up Nola's option. Kershaw isn't going anywhere either.  So, despite adding Taillon to the list, Mike's statement is likely accurate.

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I believe you’ve compiled years of data that highlight how poor of an investment free agent pitching is. So I am shocked, frankly, that you’re suggesting to do so. 

Circumstances matter.  It's a fact free agent pitching has had a high degree of failure.  I fully understand the relative success/failure of free agent SPs over the past 20 years,  That's why I rejected that strategy when there were so many other holes where payroll could be better invested.  That's not where we are today and that does not mean there are not circumstances where it's a reasonable risk.   They are going to be at $80M assuming Correa leaves.  Can you think of a better place to invest given all the prearb players on the roster?  

You may recall that starting last off-season that they would be in a very different position if they could establish several prearb players.  Enter Kirilloff / Larnach / Celestino and the move to replace Donaldson with Miranda is huge.  We have the better player and will gain over $20M in spending capacity next year from that move.   Palacios then Lewis is the likely SS next year and let's not forget Nick Gordon stepping up.

Then, you have Duran / Jax and probably Megill establishing themselves in the BP and Ober/ Ryan / Winder establishing they are ML players plus eventually adding Paddack and Maeda ion a favorable contract and you have a modest revenue team in a unique position to not only afford a top of the rotation free agent but it will be a reasonable risk in this situation, IMO. 

They might just throw us all off by converting Duran to a SP.  In that case, I would advocate a closer type and they have been even worse investments.

Gray is an easy option call (yes). I'd open talks with him, but not be too quick to extend. (He's not young, and has his own injury history.)

It cracks me up there is still Sano hope out there. The OPS+ cited in the OP (117?) would be great for a shortstop, but for a poor fielding 1B/DH it's pretty mediocre. Plus (like all of Miguel-follower stats) it is a career total, which totally obscures the fact that Sano has only had 3 (out of eight) good seasons; 2015, 2017, and 2019. He was terrible in 2020, terrible when it mattered last year before padding his stats in garbage time, and terrible again this year. He's 29, has the sort of big body that doesn't age well in this game, and has an injury history that suggests he is not likely to buck those odds. Buy him out, and offer him a minor league deal if he's floating around in February.

Bundy is actually easy. No way you do the option, but for a guy who wanted him gone in May, he's sort of won me over a bit with his ability to wring the max out of meager stuff. I'd buy him out on good terms, and tell him to stay in touch, and see about adding him late (or talking bullpen). But don't get into a bidding war, or pay $8-9 million for a aging guy with a 87 mph fastball.

When Winder and Ober get back in a few weeks (if not before) the Twins should talk to Archer about moving to the 'pen. He might have the stuff to dominate an inning, but as someone who used to like this project, he simply hasn't gained any length over the season, and he really isn't a starter right now; he's an opener. If he won't flex, I don't see him back. I could even see him being released this season.

Of more immediate concern, though, Winder, Ober, and Maeda will need roster spots. Pagan might be one. I could see Archer being another. And Megill a third.

On 8/15/2022 at 5:49 AM, mikelink45 said:

Drop Sano seems obvious,  Keep Gray is also obvious, but Bundy is rightfully your big question mark.  For me the rest of the season determines Bundy.  Would you choose Bundy over Archer?  Are either of them BP arms?  Does Winder and Ober pitch well the rest of the season.  

It is an interesting post but for your big question it will be decided in the next two months.

I highly doubt they’ll accept Bundy’s club option, the Twins already have a lot of pitchers better than him for next year. Mahle, Ryan, Gray (if he returns), Ober, Maeda, Winder, Dobnak, Smeltzer, as well as prospects like SWR, Varland, Sands, Balazovic etc.

4 minutes ago, MTV said:

I highly doubt they’ll accept Bundy’s club option, the Twins already have a lot of pitchers better than him for next year. Mahle, Ryan, Gray (if he returns), Ober, Maeda, Winder, Dobnak, Smeltzer, as well as prospects like SWR, Varland, Sands, Balazovic etc.

I don't think Dobnick or Smeltzer should be in the equation if this is to be a contending club.  Either with Sands, though he might be the long reliever we need.  SWR and Varland will need to prove themselves before we entrust them.  We also I believe have Lopez in the pen next year and would try and sign Fulmer, therefore cut Pagan.  Thielbar and Moran should be the lefties, so that is 6 - 7 bullpen spots spoken for.  A breathing starter goes at about $10 million if you want any quality that is not a lottery ticket or rebound player.  Twins if they add another pen piece should be fine if Maeda comes back.  Maybe they don't need Bundy, but then either Ober or Winder had better be the real deal and that leaves the Twins needing some starting if injuries occur or things go south again in the rotation.

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I agree, the Twins are in a good position to take on a risky investment such as a top of the rotation arm. I’d have no problem giving Verlander or DeGrom $40+ million on a short term deal. We can also look creatively in the trade market taking on a large expiring contract from teams looking to shed costs. Such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Zach Wheeler, etc. 

To answer the question can you think of a better place to invest given the # of pre-arb players on roster, I still think SS is the answer. 

Royce Lewis looked promising, but it is a very small sample size of 41 MLB PAs,   153 AAA PAs. I think the team would be much better depth wise if Lewis came back as a super utility playing CF when Buxton requires time off, 3B if Miranda needs a day off or shuffles to 1B, even the corner OF spots. It’s a big risk to rely on him as the every day SS. 

If Correa gets red hot in September, he’ll certainly opt out. If he remains a sub .800 OPS player, that’s a toss up… Boras may suggest opting back in for $35 mill and try their luck for a big contract after the 2023 season. 

Beyond SS, a large investment could be made at C if we’re interested, and perhaps an upgrade in RF over Kepler. 

I would like to see them invest at catcher but there won't be anyone worthy of a big investment available.  I have not seen Contreras lately but the talk at the trade deadline was that his defense is very subpar at this point.

I hear ya where SS is concerned.  I just don't see it as feasible to sign a SS long-term and sign a front of the rotation SP.  They could cover the payroll year 1.  However, that strategy falls apart as players earn arbitration increases, especially if they do really well and get big bumps.  At that point they probably have to replace some of them with prearb players which may or may not be available.  It's a tough call.

On 8/15/2022 at 4:01 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Would you pay Archer $10 million to be a long reliever (2-3 innings)? I believe I would.  The Twins need a good long reliever. 

Perhaps.

But he's also on target to end up with about 28 starts, his most since 2017. Something, perhaps the shortness of his outings, has seemed to keep him healthy. That's worth something in a starter.

We yelp because he's only on target for 118 innings, but this is also his coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery season. From 2014-2017, he averaged 202 innings (with a 3.66 ERA), so he HAS been able to provide significant, quality workload in the past. In the years since that he's thrown 148, 119, 0, 19 and now a projected 118.

By the end of June, he'd gotten his ERA down to 3.08. It's tracked up since then, but that seems consistent with someone who's running out of gas in his recovery year.

I don't think the shortness of his outings this year needs to be assumed going forward. If he indeed gets through 28 starts at 115-120 innings, I suspect his personal goal for next year would be 28-30 starts in the 150 innings range, with an ERA in that 3.66 range. That's worth something, and it might as well be for us.

If he makes it through the season healthy (even with a transition to the bullpen or even shorter outings), he starts to look a little more tempting to bring back. I don't think it's a given to pick up the option and see him as a starter, but I don't think it's a given not to either. 

Sano is an easy no. If the Twins want to add a 1B/DH bat, that $14M could almost assuredly be put to better use for someone who may or may not be as dynamic in regard to pure power, but would be probably be a lot more consistent.

Gray is an obvious yes.

I have to admit I'm a little torn on Bundy. While not great, he's surprised me for being solid and generally consistent. And as someone else pointed out,,,sorry forgot who now...he's really only had a couple of just AWEFUL games.

Maeda gets the end of this year, the offseason, and ST to shake off rust. Will he be as good as he was in 2020 and as good as he looked during ST 2021 before his arm blew up? Very possibly. But even if not quite as good, he's probably a legit, solid part of a 4 man staff along with Mahle, Gray, and Ryan. As good as Paddack looked early, he won't be ready until mid season. I really like both Ober and Winder a lot. On paper, the rotation is set with depth provided by a collection of the Ober/Winder "loser" as well as, possibly, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Sands (if he doesn't move to the pen), a rebounding Balazovic, (I still have faith), Varland, SWR, and an inevitable flier such as Sanchez.

But injuries happen. As much as I like Ober and Winder, the Twins very likely will have the $ to add another FA. I'd rather have guys "pushed out" of the rotation than be short. I don't know that Bundy's $11M can actually bring in someone as good or better, as some have stated. But that $11M could be PART of a larger deal for someone definitely better, if not much better. And I think that's the direction I'd go, saying no to Bundy. 

Now, if the Twins feel really good about Ober and Winder's health, and want to invest in another pen arm and a bat, or two, I could maybe see Bundy's option being picked up. I just think they could do better, especially if Correa does as expected and opt out.

I haven't seen the progression with Archer I'd hoped for, nor what I think the Twins hoped for. 

16 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Perhaps.

But he's also on target to end up with about 28 starts, his most since 2017. Something, perhaps the shortness of his outings, has seemed to keep him healthy. That's worth something in a starter.

We yelp because he's only on target for 118 innings, but this is also his coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery season. From 2014-2017, he averaged 202 innings (with a 3.66 ERA), so he HAS been able to provide significant, quality workload in the past. In the years since that he's thrown 148, 119, 0, 19 and now a projected 118.

By the end of June, he'd gotten his ERA down to 3.08. It's tracked up since then, but that seems consistent with someone who's running out of gas in his recovery year.

I don't think the shortness of his outings this year needs to be assumed going forward. If he indeed gets through 28 starts at 115-120 innings, I suspect his personal goal for next year would be 28-30 starts in the 150 innings range, with an ERA in that 3.66 range. That's worth something, and it might as well be for us.

If he makes it through the season healthy (even with a transition to the bullpen or even shorter outings), he starts to look a little more tempting to bring back. I don't think it's a given to pick up the option and see him as a starter, but I don't think it's a given not to either. 

 

Really good points Indiana. I appreciate your research for your excellent post. I really do want Chris Archer to succeed as a Twin. His on the air interviews are extremely positive, interesting and informative, plus he is a fellow North Carolinian. 

Ok, i know this will be a very unpopular opinion, but I would try to sign Sano before the season ends, to a two year 8M extension with some preformance bonus options.  I still like the potential of a big bat in the DH cleanup spot that can fill in at 1b and 3b in a pinch.  Just seems like there is so much talent there, IF he is healthy and we could get someone to work with him to bring out his talent.  Maybe it's the Big Papi scenario that scares me.  But that would be cheap enouph, and he should accept. (Heiny begins ducking the fruits and vegetables now.)

53 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Ok, i know this will be a very unpopular opinion, but I would try to sign Sano before the season ends, to a two year 8M extension with some preformance bonus options.  I still like the potential of a big bat in the DH cleanup spot that can fill in at 1b and 3b in a pinch.  Just seems like there is so much talent there, IF he is healthy and we could get someone to work with him to bring out his talent.  Maybe it's the Big Papi scenario that scares me.  But that would be cheap enouph, and he should accept. (Heiny begins ducking the fruits and vegetables now.)

It will be. ?

I've been struck by the uniqueness of the Maeda contract. Very low guarantee ($3.125M), with very attainable bonuses for innings and starts on a continuum that could get him up to an additional $9.5M. That's really what you're talking about.

In your scenario, remember that he's already getting $2.75M for his buyout, so you're really just adding $1.25M for next year. I'm a little intrigued by the notion, but I just think there's too much redundancy with others on the roster, assuming Kirilloff and Larnach are healthy. 

I don't Bundy being here next year.  They already have 6 that should be on the opening day roster in Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Maeda.  Then, Paddack should be available a couple months in and they have Smeltzer and Dobnak for depth.  They are going to give Dobnak a shot if he looks decent next spring because they have him under contract for 3 years and 3 options.  Let's hope that Varland and SWR is knocking at the door a couple months in too.

All that aside.  The depth looks quite adequate.  Any addition should be a higher profile SP.  Moving Donaldson's contract was huge.  They can fit a high profile SP into their budget even if Correa stays.  Selecting Bundy's option just does not make sense unless you can't get a higher profile SP to come here.

buy out and drop Sano
Obviously pay Grey (or extend) 
Buy out Bundy, then sign him at less than 11 mil maybe 5 or 6, worse case scenario he is an opener that will pitch 1-3 innings and then let the real starter get 5-7 innings.