Play with the Twins' Payroll at TwinsPayroll.com

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kYgZW3c6KYVDOe2v4O-GaQs8sl_mQ6H6S13dNW1_JFg/edit

I'd actually start Lewis at SS, Polanco at 2B and move Arraez to Utility. Lewis provides versatility at SS, 3B, and CF allowing for a lot of rotation (and Buxton injury insurance). Same goes for Blankenhorn (minus the Buxton insurance.) Rooker/Kirilloff provide pop off the bench and great rotation at RF/LF/1B/DH as well as lefty/righty matchups along with Sano.

Starting Pitching: Bring back Odo and pick up someone with something to prove. Teheran seems like a good option, but I'd also be ok with Gausman or even Jordan Blaze.

Relief Pitching: it wasn't all that broke, so not much to fix. Sign May to a long term deal, I think he's going to be a solid closer for someone for 2-5 years, why not for the Twins?! As for the rest, Romo is gone (too much of a one-trick pony.) Fill the pen with some folks that Johnson can turn around on the cheap.

Here's the link to my spreadsheet (which hopefully will open for you):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pZqVZ_fHFfICOzVMH2rlwTBGMSeQsTLuSLle-kaijz0/edit#gid=0

Thanks John and/or anyone else involved with producing this fun spreadsheet! I had fun trying to work this out.

I left Rosario off the list as I'd trade him. I guess I'd trade him for prospects to keep the rest of my list here intact. But otherwise I'd try to get a starting pitcher for comparable value or a closer (and leave off Rosenthal) and prospects for the balance.

I'd like to trade Donaldson if anyone was willing to take his contract (which I doubt), and would also listen to trade options for Sano, Polanco and Kepler. But without any of those trades I'm wanting to improve the starting pitching by bringing Odorizzi back (or someone else like Paxton in the same price range) and signing free agent Mike Fiers (Oakland A's). 

I want a real closer, so I'm rolling the dice on Trevor Rosenthal hoping for a repeat of his 2020 success. I'd bring May back for 6M, Clippard and Thielbar (or someone comprable to Thielbar). 

I'm ready to give Lamont Wade a shot over Jack Cave as the 4th OF. As much as I want Cruz back, I was worried by his September slump so I'll let him go and go young with Rooker, Kiriloff and Blankenhorn on the team to share the DH spot when not playing in the field. I still want some "Turtle" time although Adrianza might make more sense. I'd search a bit deeper first to try to find someone comprable but with more pop in their bat.    

I'd also like to add that I'd like be looking to get a new manager, that makes the players want to win and doesn't baby them all season, so they can "be healthy for the post season". That's not working out.

I so would love May to be a solid closer and be a part of the Twins for the next 2-5 years. But I'm afraid to risk the money he might NEED on a beginning 2-3 year contract, compared to what he might get elsewhere.

Do you bring back Cruz for a hefty sum, or go with the combination of Kirilloff/Sano/Rooker at DH/1B - plus remember you can play Garver there, if need be. Suddenly it looks like you don't need Cruz, or do you really need Sano if he ahs any value.

I remember old talk about Polanco being better at second that short. But then I also hear talk that Lewis is NOT the best shortstop. If Lewis comes up, he starts. He will be added to the 40-man. Do we just stay where we are for 2021 and use Blankenhorn and Gordon as backups?

Do we move on from Cave and keep Wade? Does Celestino bring more worth the the outfield mess? Of course, a decision ahs to be made on Rosario. Is Larnach ready?

Between Bailey, Hill and Odorizzi the Twins clear alot of salary from the rotation.

As far as the bullpen, remember we still have Littell who could slide back into the mess.

I just don't know what to use for a budget. It seems unlikely teams will assume fans will be back. Will the players agree to a reduction in salary based on attendance levels? Is it possible that negotiation takes place immediately following the WS. If so, I would expect next to nothing happening until an agreement is reached.

Here is what I expect ....

Twins will non-tender Rosario. Rooker will be in the OF. He is the most established in terms of Milb success. He had 65 games at AAA with a 933 OPS. Kirilloff has 94 games at AA and had a mediocre year in 2019. His OPS was 756. 

Kirilloff and/or Larnach will not start the season at the MLB level but will be promoted during the 2021 season.

Lewis also will not start the season with the MLB club. He only has 33 games at the AA level and his OPS was only 649 at AA. Yes, he was great in the AZ fall league but that's a SS of 22 games.

Sano will be with the Twins to start the season. They are not going to sell low on him.

The biggest expenditure will be a FA starting pitcher.

There will be a couple RPs signed.

A utility player will be signed as a FA. However, I would not be shocked if they decided to give Gordon and/or Blankenhorn a shot. I just think there will be some good opportunities to sign this type of players this year.

If Cruz not back and don't sign front line starting pitcher, Sano could be second highest paid player on team. Hoping Twins let Rooker, Kirilloff be up at start of season. Cave as 4th OF.Sign decent IF backup like Hernandez, give Blankenhorn a shot, Jeffers is no-brainer for me. Sign FA pitcher or Odorizzi, along with Dobnak at SP,one solid RP maybe Treinen, along with May, Rogers, then look for the next Wisler. Still have Stashek, Littel, Theilbar, Smeltzer, Thorpe to battle for last 2 spots.Has to be some Twins pitching prospects ready to get a shot in MLB, only pitcher made their MLB debut last year for Twins-Colina for one out. Hopefully play a full season next year and young pitchers get opportunities.

I won't even attempt this exercise. I know I'd be a terrible GM as I get too attached to "my guys" and it clouds my judgment.

It`s really tough to balance the budget. I took the route of going after Bauer for the 1yr.. I believe he could  help a lot our up coming pitching prospects beside being a work horse ace. It was tough not to  keep Cruz but to keep the salary down,  I thought to give all our high prospect position players a shot. I keep hearing that Lewis isn`t ready because he had only 33 games at AA. Jeffers had only 24 games & 87 ABs at AA but no one questions his MLB readiness. Plus Lewis won the AFL`s MVP, AFL is the creme of the minors. We really need his athleticism, to play CF, SS, 2B & 3B

It`s really tough to balance the budget. I took the route of going after Bauer for the 1yr.. I believe he could  help a lot our up coming pitching prospects beside being a work horse ace. It was tough not to  keep Cruz but to keep the salary down,  I thought to give all our high prospect position players a shot. I keep hearing that Lewis isn`t ready because he had only 33 games at AA. Jeffers had only 24 games & 87 ABs at AA but no one questions his MLB readiness. Plus Lewis won the AFL`s MVP, AFL is the creme of the minors. We really need his athleticism, to play CF, SS, 2B & 3B

I for one question Jeffers readiness to be the primary catcher. And question even more using Lewis as a utility player.

It`s really tough to balance the budget. I took the route of going after Bauer for the 1yr.. I believe he could  help a lot our up coming pitching prospects beside being a work horse ace. It was tough not to  keep Cruz but to keep the salary down,  I thought to give all our high prospect position players a shot. I keep hearing that Lewis isn`t ready because he had only 33 games at AA. Jeffers had only 24 games & 87 ABs at AA but no one questions his MLB readiness. Plus Lewis won the AFL`s MVP, AFL is the creme of the minors. We really need his athleticism, to play CF, SS, 2B & 3B

This will be a crazy offseason, I really don`t have any idea how this FA will be only that probably many FA won`t be able to sign until late because the owners will wait until they see what the market settles at. I rethought my initial parole. I  don`t think the Twins will go after any frontline ace especially this year (too bad, a guy can dream)) so maybe they sign Cruz & settle w/ Rosario & bring up the prospects later & go for a trade later before the deadline

A little off topic, John, but does anyone know anything about the 18-year old pitcher the Twins signed the other day...Eduardo Soriano?

Have searched and can find nothing, zip. Means he is probably foreign.

It`s really tough to balance the budget. I took the route of going after Bauer for the 1yr.. I believe he could  help a lot our up coming pitching prospects beside being a work horse ace. It was tough not to  keep Cruz but to keep the salary down,  I thought to give all our high prospect position players a shot. I keep hearing that Lewis isn`t ready because he had only 33 games at AA. Jeffers had only 24 games & 87 ABs at AA but no one questions his MLB readiness. Plus Lewis won the AFL`s MVP, AFL is the creme of the minors. We really need his athleticism, to play CF, SS, 2B & 3B

Jeffers was called upon because of injury. That’s an entirely different scenario than opting to use a prospect from the start of the season. In this case, they would actually be making room for Lewis. In addition, Jeffers had also proven to be ready defensively that’s not what we are hearing about Lewis. Jeffers also had an Ops+ of 151 at AA, Lewis 88. Lewis was promoted to AA in spite of regressing at A+ from 2018 to 2019. I don’t see Jeffers situation as remotely parallel to Lewis.

It would be aggressive to promote him without a need caused by injury if he If he kills AA for a half-season. Promoting because he had 22 good games in the AFL is reckless.

If we lose all our players, I would sign Tony Watson for relief and Jurickson Profar as a utility infielder. I'd sign Brandon Workman or Shane Greene as a closer backup to Rogers who could bounce back. I might take a flyer on Brad Peacock if he is healthy or Julio Teheran but would not want to overpay for either. I'd try to bring back Hill and Odo. After that, I'd still try to trade Sano to the NL for a good starter and a prospect. A 100-110 million dollar payroll is feasible.

Here is mine. To elaborate; I brought back Odorizzi for one year, brought back Clippard and Avila, and made a couple of trades; one ended up being Garver and Arraez to Washington for Robles and a prospect (our new left fielder as well as centerfield insurance.) I also traded Sano to San Diego for a high end prospect/outfielder who is 2-3 years away but was their 1st round pick this past June. I signed Kike Hernandez, and he will start out as our starting 2nd baseman, but when Lewis is eventually ready, I either have Polanco or Kike move to the utility role.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QZN4l8cY-jjz3wTdsUhSuiYFCewBVf_H7LD7e_oYU0Q/edit

I'd also like to add that I'd like be looking to get a new manager, that makes the players want to win and doesn't baby them all season, so they can "be healthy for the post season". That's not working out.

That's a little harsh. Rocco has done some good things - he can grow as a manager/leader.

How'd it work out with the last two?

Is this supposed to be a ringing endorsement?

I feel like the presumed depressed market of baseball provides an enormous opportunity for the Twins here. If everyone else is decreasing payroll by 10%-20%, we can "increase" our payroll by 10%-20% by just not decreasing actual dollars spent. Revenues were down this year, and there's a decent chance they will be next year too, but looking at that and saying we have to cut payroll, I think, is very short sighted. If we even just maintain relatively the same budget we can probably lure in two, three, or four impact free agents to medium or long term deals at fairly reasonable rates. Sure, you've taken a financial hit for a couple years, but if it pays off for the next 3 or 4 years after that, it's worth it.

So, with that in mind, here's what I came up with for just $2.5M more spent than this year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15H3LMLiHjRKVvGDGbP8LFptPJymjbg9fN3OqrDa-BFE/edit?usp=drivesdk

You can argue the specific players, I don't care, cuz my main point is that I think everyone is missing the opportunity being presented by the broader market to get some big long term gains by taking a short term hit. (And yes, I know this is easy for me to say since it's not my money.)

Here is what I got: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Prp6k25-99NVzLPsttNf2rLyRySGdR-OQ56w_RzoB14/edit#gid=0

I like Gausman and Smyly a lot at the projected prices provided in the spreadsheet. I think they provide the best value for SP at those prices. 

For DH I think Brantley is a great alternative if Cruz doesn't come back as he can spell players at the corner OF and is younger and possibly cheaper.

For LF you could have Rooker/Cave platoon until Kiriloff is down at AAA for a couple months playing LF full time to be ready to play there long term. Brandon Warne's suggestion to trade Rosario for Jon Gray from CO could take the 5th spot in the rotation as well.

If I'm going over budget anywhere it is to upgrade utility for someone better than Adrianza/Blankenhorn.

Smeltzer is the long reliever at the 8th spot in the BP. Clippard is my top target for the BP given his track record, how good he was last year, and his low cost. Great value. May and Rogers are interchangeable but if we can find a decent trade option for Rogers so we can sign May that would ideal.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1spLjFaQh9hvqc1AfPs2A-3eDiIlq9xT3GyYKPnxo8SI/edit?usp=sharing

Hopefully the link works. If Andrelton Simmons was similarly priced to Profar (probably unlikely), I might go with him at SS and move Polanco to superutility. I'm not married to specifically May in the pen, but I'd target someone in the $5-7mil range. If ownership approved payroll similar to 2020, I'd look to upgrade OF to Springer or SP to Bauer.

With the recent changes in the offseason here's my updated look at how the Twins can fill out their team while keeping to a 10% payroll cut. I tinkered with the numbers a bit (raising SP amounts, lowered Rogers figure, manually entered Gyorko) based off of what Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors put forth on contracts and arbitration.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o_RbVgIjFQ3oNfyy4uqecJONescFSiJ4WuSR1XJkm5c/edit?usp=sharing