mitcho8

Nice thorough work. I've been a little (ok, a lot) obsessed with the Marlins as a trade partner. I was assuming the return would lean more toward ML-ready hitters, maybe 2 hitters and a pitcher, if necessary, given their problems scoring runs.

So this one is inspired by the latest GATG episode. It's a bit over budget, but I think it's sellable to ownership as the time to splurge. If cuts are absolutely needed, there are some opportunities. I could swap out a different C (Barnhardt?), IF (Adrianza?) and OF (Celestino?) and reduce payroll by $3-5mil at each spot. Also, if the team rolled into spring training and all the SP looked healthy and effective, Mahle or Maeda could be traded to clear a spot and salary. Finally, I'm trading away Kepler and trading/non-tendering Urshela and Pagan. Urshela is tough for me. I think he should be worth $9mil to someone, but it's not this team, and probably no team, unfortunately. Note: I based FA salary and Arb $ off Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors projections, and for the lesser FA I just kind of guessed. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.0M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.7M) SS: Carlos Correa ($32M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Wil Myers ($6.0M) DH: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.8M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Adelmys Diaz ($6.0M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($7.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($7.2M) SP3: Carlos Rodon ($28.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.7M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($0.8M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.4M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.7M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.7M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($5.0M) Payroll is 4.18% over budget

Thanks! I preferred Bogaerts over Correa due to cost. I expect he might switch to 3b before the deal is up but I think his bat will still play there. All things being equal, I'd go for Woodruff over Lopez due to the durability concerns. I could see trading for a C, but a) I'm not looking forward to further thinning the farm system, and b) I'm not sure Toronto is going to take Falvey's calls after the Berrios trade. I may have messed up the formatting on this but its late and I'm not typing it up again.

I'm not sure Miami would be looking forward to adding another underperforming corner outfielder to Soler and Garcia. I could see maybe something built around Arraez or Miranda for Lopez. Both Rodon and Lopez are coming off career highs in IP and have extensive injury histories so I'm not eager to put all my eggs in those baskets. Winder might match what a vet RP could provide, but he might not, too.

Not much to say. I don't want to sign a big free agent SP. I'm going after a big name SS. I'm not sure what it would take to get Haniger, but $10mil seemed close. I'm not especially in love with Narvaez, but I just want a credible 2nd catcher in that price range. Same with Fulmer; just give me a veteran RHRP. I think there's some room to trade for Pablo Lopez or Brandon Woodruff if the opportunity arises. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Xander Bogaerts ($25.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($10.00M) DH: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($1.10M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($5.00M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.70M) Payroll is 10.86% under budget

I like those Reds SPs, but I'm not sure what they would want in return. Their C, IF and COF seem pretty set to me, but maybe a trade could be built around Kepler if he could be billed as a CF?

It's actually a decent gap. Meyer is 28, Kepler is 23.6.

@dxpavelka I don't really want to assume Lewis will be ready to take over at SS and pass on this crop of shortstops. He's had 148 plate appearances above single A, it was two years ago, it didn't go great, and since then he tore his ACL. If necessary Story can change positions to make room for Lewis (or Palacios or Javier for that matter).

@TopGunn#22Yeah, I assumed that was Knebel. There are quite a few guys listed there at $4-6 mil that I would go for.

My plan for 2022 is about building toward 2023 and beyond. I just don’t think this team can get back to contention in one offseason, given the extensive (and very expensive) holes on the roster. A lot of the prospects that I’m hoping will be part of the future had lost or limited seasons in 2021 so I want to hit the reset button for those guys and I want to give extended chances to players who need to make good or else. All that means is that I’m going to make a few splashy moves, but I’m also leaving some flexibility for this season and beyond. I’m signing or extending four guys to multi year contracts, signing three guys to one year deals, offering arbitration to seven guys, and trading three team-controlled guys for pitching. Multi Year Deals CF - Byron Buxton - My first priority is extending Buxton. No one knows what salary the two sides would agree on, so I picked $15mil. SS - Trevor Story - I'm signing one of the Big 5 SS on the market. I choose Story. His home/road splits and downturn in 2021 is a little worrying, but I’m skeptical Correa or Seager would come here. Baez would be my second choice, then Semien. I’m less enthused about Semien because of his age. SP - Marcus Stroman - I'm signing someone (Stroman) from the top tier of free agent SP for the top spot. I'm not terribly interested in old guys, like Scherzer or Verlander, or higher injury risks, like Rodon, Syndergaard, and maybe Kershaw (also skeptical about him leaving LA). SP - Eduardo Rodtriguez - I'm asking Mr. Pohlad very nicely to stretch the budget a bit so we can bring in Eduardo Rodriguez. Jon Gray would also be a good option here. One Year Deals SP - Carlos Martinez - Martinez’s recent struggles are worrisome, but at the very least he can keep the spot warm while someone in St. Paul makes the case for himself. OF - Corey Dickerson - I’m bringing in a veteran OF to keep the position warm for Larnach/Celestino/Wallner/Whoever. RP - Ryan Tepera - I wanted to add a mid-priced veteran to the mix, and I went with Tepera. Arbitration I’m offering arbitration to Minaya, Theilbar, Rogers, Refsnyder, Garver, and Arraez. Trades I’m trading for pitching. I’ve had some inspiration from Twins Daily, MLB Trade Rumors, and some other places. I like to lean on Baseball Trade Values but some of the values seem a little off at the moment and obviously a player’s availability and a trade partner’s suitability are tough to gauge, so like all information gleaned from the internet, I trust all of it and I trust none of it. I liked the idea put forth in the Handbook about sending hitters to Miami for Max Meyer. It seems a little strange that he’d be available, and very strange that his trade value is only a little higher than Max Kepler’s; I get that Kepler is an established player, but Meyer was the 3rd overall pick in 2020 and spent 2021 thriving in the high minors. Anyway, I’m sending Kepler and Jeffers to Miami for Meyer. According to Baseball Trade Values it’s rejected as a “Major Overpay”, but it seems about right to me. If not, they can throw in a guy to even it out. Meyer will start the season in St. Paul but will be in the major league mix soon. I'm trading Donaldson for a bucket of balls, I mean, relief prospects, and kicking in $7mil for each of his remaining years. I'd pull the trigger on the deal laid out in the Offseason Handbook. I’ll miss his bat but I want to put the money to other uses. Notes Arraez takes over as more or less the everyday 3B, and Miranda will be in play sooner rather than later. Gordon is the backup shortstop/utility man and I’m praying that Garver holds up so Rortvedt doesn’t have to play more than twice per week. I've penciled in Ober and Ryan for the last two rotation spots. As far as SP depth goes, Randy Dobnak is heading the rotation in St. Paul, along with Smeltzer, Barnes, and company. Hopefully the top pitching prospects can come back healthy this year, and at least a few will debut. In the bullpen, it’s mostly status quo. The last two spots are left for the Minneapolis-St. Paul shuttle of prospects, minor league free agent signings, and waiver claims. Anyway, that’s my plan. What say you?

I would also consider Jonathan Villar. Not much OF experience, but that's less valuable to me. Glove quality seems questionable, but hopefully workable.

Seems odd, even with the out-of-line results this year. Even if (when) he gives back some of the gains he still seems like a good ~$1-2mil guy to have around.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1spLjFaQh9hvqc1AfPs2A-3eDiIlq9xT3GyYKPnxo8SI/edit?usp=sharing Hopefully the link works. If Andrelton Simmons was similarly priced to Profar (probably unlikely), I might go with him at SS and move Polanco to superutility. I'm not married to specifically May in the pen, but I'd target someone in the $5-7mil range. If ownership approved payroll similar to 2020, I'd look to upgrade OF to Springer or SP to Bauer.

Here's my blueprint: Non-tender C.J. Cron. I think if he gets to full health he's a worthwhile piece, but not at $7.5mil. Offer arbitration to the rest Trade Eddie Rosario and Jhoan Duran to San Diego for Kirby Yates. Trade Royce Lewis and Lewis Thorpe to New York for Noah Syndergaard. I played around with baseballtradevalues.com for these. According to that I'm overpaying for Yates and right on for Thor. I can see swapping a prospect, or adding one, but they seem reasonable. Sign Zach Wheeler 4/$72mil Sign Josh Donaldson 2/$40mil Re-Sign Jake Odorizzi 3/$36mil Sign Drew Pomeranz 2/$7mil Re-Sign Jason Castro 1/$6mil I'm not a fan of 6+ year contracts for anyone, let alone starting pitchers, and I love me some Zach Wheeler. If a third year is required for Donaldson, I'm in. I also believe the Pomeranz we saw in the last two months is for real, in which case this is a steal. Odorizzi and Castro are brought back for their veteranness/continuity/etc. C - Garver $0.6 1B - Sano $5.5 2B - Arraez $0.6 3B - Donaldson $20.0 SS - Polanco $4.0 LF - Cave $0.6 CF - Buxton $3.5 RF - Kepler $6.3 DH - Cruz $12.0 Bench - Castro $6.0 - Gonzalez $9.0 - Adrianza $3.0 - Wade $0.6 SP - Wheeler $18 - Syndergaard $9.9 - Berrios $4.5 - Odorizzi $12 - Dobnak or whoever $0.6 RP - Rogers $4.0 - Duffey $1.3 - May $2.5 - Yates $6.5 - Pomeranz $3.5 - Littell $0.6 - Stashak/shuttle rider $0.6 Perez buyout $0.5 The 26th man will be Astudillo or another Rochester-to-MSP shuttle rider. My math comes to $136.8 million. I think it would be justified to bump overall payroll this year to offer a Blake Snell-esque extension (4/$40mil) to Berrios, something similar to the Polanco and Kepler extensions to Sano and Buxton, and a Glen Perkins-style extension for Taylor Rogers. Cave is definitely a drop-off from Rosario, but he's also less than 10% the cost, and easily discarded when Kiriloff/Rooker/Larnach/Raley are ready to take over. Also in play is Shogo Akiyama (2/$6mil according to MLB Trade Rumors). If my scouts think he's an upgrade over Cave, Shogo mans LF, Cave goes to the bench, Wade goes to Rochester, and the payroll goes to $139.2mil. Boom.

I'm on board. If (when?) the big money SPs go elsewhere the Twins will have plenty of money to spend on the lineup. To me Grandal (or another C) makes the most sense.