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This rapid erosion of outfield depth has been driven in part by the aforementioned moves, which mostly worked out very poorly. But there are other factors at play, too:
- It became clear during his rookie year that Alex Kirilloff is better suited at first base than outfield, and that the team prefers him there.
- A rocky debut for Trevor Larnach casts doubt on his ability to step in as a regular, at least in the immediate future.
- Jake Cave obliterated all confidence by following up a bad season with an awful one.
- The Twins evidently prefer not to use utilityman Luis Arraez in the outfield.
- Max Kepler is one of the most logical trade chips this offseason for a front office that desperately needs to add quality pitching.
Locking up Byron Buxton long-term certainly helps to counter this trend, but as we all know, solid contingency plans behind Buxton are more necessity than luxury. It seems safe to say the Twins need to add at least a very solid fourth outfielder, if not an impact starter in one of the corners, ahead of 2022.
Two pieces of good news on this front: 1) The outfield free agent market is not nearly as picked over as the starting pitching and shortstop markets; 2) Due to their lack of action on the SP/SS markets, the Twins still have considerable spending flexibility.
If they're looking for a productive way to channel those available funds, targeting a high-end outfielder could make sense. It would represent a pivot similar to the one we saw two offseasons ago when they missed out on Zack Wheeler and signed Josh Donaldson.
Here are 10 remaining free agent outfielders who the Twins could set their sights on when baseball activity resumes, listed roughly in order of the most ambitious to the least.
10 Free Agent Outfielders that Could Interest the Twins
1. Kris Bryant (30)
Dreaming big here. MLB Trade Rumors ranked him as the fourth-best free agent overall and predicted a six-year, $160 million contract for the former MVP and five-time All-Star. It ain't gonna happen. But man, would it be fun to drop him into the middle of this lineup for the next half-decade.
2. Nick Castellanos (30)
Coming off his best season in the majors, Castellanos is arguably the best pure bat in free agency. Over the past five seasons he's slashing .286/.339/.518 with 124 home runs and 397 RBIs, and he launched 34 homers for the Reds in 2021. He'll get a lesser deal than Bryant, but is still looking at $20+ million annually over several years. The lack of defensive value – he can only play right field, and not very well – is a major ding to his appeal. Signing him would also cost a draft pick since he declined a qualifying offer.
3. Seiya Suzuki (27)
One of the foremost stars in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league, Suzuki was posted earlier this offseason by the Hiroshima Carp and is ready to make a move stateside. Easily the youngest player on this list, Suzuki is a good right-handed hitter seemingly entering his prime. Last year in NPB he slashed .317/.433/.639 with 38 homers in 132 games, and he's considered a fairly strong defender in right field. Cody Christie wrote last month about the merits of signing Suzuki, who's projected by MLBTR to land a five-year, $55 million deal. He has reportedly drawn strong interest from some East Coast heavy hitters.
4. Michael Conforto (29)
An intriguing case. I was a little surprised to see Conforto turn down a qualifying offer from the Mets, because he's coming off a pretty underwhelming season (.729 OPS, 0.8 fWAR) and doesn't seem primed to land a mega-deal at this moment. His depressed stock along with the attached draft pick compensation could make free agency challenging for Conforto, who posted a 134 OPS+ in the four seasons prior to 2021. For a team that likes him, the cost in dollars should be relatively reasonable, and a shorter-term duration may be available. Conforto primarily plays right field these days but has plenty of experience in left and even in center.
5. Corey Dickerson (33)
I had the Twins signing Dickerson in my offseason blueprint because it just feels like a thing. He's in a buy-low position coming off a couple of mediocre seasons, and has ties to the Baldelli-era Rays. Even with his diminished production in 2020-21 (.266/.321/.406), Dickerson's been more decent than bad, and he has an .815 career OPS. In 2019 he slashed .304/.341/.565 between Pittsburgh and Philly. A lefty swinger, Dickerson is generally a left fielder, but gained some experience in center and right last year.
6. Kevin Pillar (33)
If the Twins choose to lower their sights from impact starter to fourth outfielder, Pillar would be a logical fit. He's a natural center fielder but made 20+ starts in all three outfield spots for the Mets last year. He's a veteran with more than 1,000 games worth of MLB experience. He's a righty swinger who hits better against lefties, so he'd fit well into an outfield mix that includes Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. Aging into his mid-30s, Pillar is not the defensive wiz he once was and he's a reliably below-average hitter, so this wouldn't be the most inspiring move but it'd make sense.
7. Odúbel Herrera (30)
Herrera falls into a similar category as Pillar: not really a full-time starter, but a player you could comfortably expect to get 100+ games out of in a part-time role. He's a good defender who can handle all three spots but mainly plays center. Like Pillar, Herrera isn't a great hitter but he's a respectable one.
8. Joc Pederson (30)
He was a key factor on some very good Dodgers teams in the not-so-distant past, but Pederson's performance has dropped off over the past couple years, yielding just a 0.5 fWAR in 180 games. He's young enough that the possibility of tapping back into that previous level still exists, which makes him a somewhat interesting target, but he's so redundant with Kepler that it's tough to envision a fit unless the latter is traded.
9. Eddie Rosario (30)
Look I'm not recommending this but it's certainly on the table as a possibility. One year after leaving the Twins as a non-tender, Rosario is back in free agency. He's coming off his worst season overall but rejuvenated his market somewhat with a sensational run in the late season and playoffs, thriving on the big stage in Atlanta. He should still be available on a cheapish short-term deal, and there's still plenty of love for Eddie in Minnesota. If the Twins move Kirilloff to first full-time, I could see Rosario brought in as a plug to let Larnach and others develop while sparking some enthusiasm for casual fans in what increasingly appears to be a rebuilding year.
10. Jake Marisnick (31)
The former top prospect simply never developed any offensive game, with the exception a great 2017 in Houston (draw your own conclusions), but he's stuck around because of his speed and great glove. He's pretty much a pure bench guy at this point but would be well suited for that role and a clear upgrade over Cave.
Do any of these names appeal to you? Are there others on your radar? How aggressive should the Twins be in their pursuit of an outfielder this offseason? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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