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Not only was the rotation left out of the top-10, it didn’t even make the honorable mention group! This seems like a slight considering the rotation was borderline top-10 in 2019 and has added Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and even Homer Bailey to fill out what was already a pretty good rotation.
The numbers don’t lie (they can’t even talk!). Minnesota’s starters ranked seventh in fWAR. When we look at park and league adjusted pitching statistics, the 2019 Twins rotation also ranked seventh in ERA(-), and FIP(-) and ninth in xFIP(-). That makes a pretty strong case for cracking the top-10, but the 2020 rotation is not the 2019 rotation – it’s better!
Gone are Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez, who were unambiguously Minnesota’s two worst starters last season. Gibson never really seemed himself while battling ulcerative colitis and ended the year in the bullpen. He finished with a 4.84 ERA and signed a three-year deal with the Texas Rangers (who somehow come in at number seven with Gibson listed as their fourth starter) in the offseason. Of course, we only have to go back to 2018 to see a good year from Gibson (3.62 ERA), but he had a 5.07 ERA in both 2016 and 2017 and has only had an ERA of below 4.00 twice in his career (ZiPS doesn’t believe in Gibson either, pegging him for a 5.19 ERA this year).
Pérez’s 2019 started off on an amazing run, going 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA through May 23rd and it looked like Wes Johnson had really worked some magic. But the wheels were quick to fly off and Pérez ended the season with an unsightly 5.12 ERA and was left off the postseason roster. He signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox and is projected for a 5.09 ERA by ZiPS.
With Gibby and Pérez out of the picture, the Twins retained the good part of their rotation (José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda, who is suspended for the first half plus of the 60 game season) and essentially replaced the castoffs with Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda. Hill’s last season with an ERA above 4.00 was 2013 and he had a 2.45 ERA for the Dodgers in 2019.
Hill could easily be Minnesota’s best pitcher this year, but Kenta Maeda is no slouch either. He has a 3.87 ERA for his career and an even better 3.71 FIP. The swapping of Gibson and Pérez for Hill and Maeda is a huge upgrade and should significantly bolster the Twins rotation. Plus Minnesota has either the “new and improved” version of Homer Bailey or Randy Dobnak, who was great in his brief rookie campaign, to keep Pineda’s chair warm. Throw in Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer (and his new and improved slider), and potentially Jhoulys Chacín, and the Twins also boast incredible depth.
Maybe the rotation hasn’t quite earned top-five status, but considering they were already a top-10 rotation last year and have only gotten better should place them firmly in the top-10. The fact that six additional honorable mention teams were added to the list and the Twins were still left off is absurd.
Although the almost unwatchable “pitch-to-contact” rotations of the Gardy and Rick Anderson era are long gone (but amazingly still alive in Detroit), and the Twins are at the forefront of modern pitching innovation, it seems they have yet to get the respect they deserve. Look for that to change over the next 60 games.
What do you think about MLB.com’s top-10 rotation list? Should the Twins be in? Where do they fit? Finally, how do you feel about Rodney Dangerfield?
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