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We rarely see players like Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter on the baseball diamond anymore. The Baltimore Orioles immediately looked questionable when giving Chris Davis a bloated deal as analytics began to weigh on-base percentages differently. Both Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz have shown a better approach than some of the aforementioned names, but as each heads elsewhere you have to wonder what either have left.
Recently the San Diego Padres signed Cruz for just $1 million. That is his lowest yearly salary since he was 29-years-old back in 2010. Expected to get plenty of designated hitter at bats for the Padres, there was very little evidence that the aging process had not have caught up to Cruz a season ago.
Playing 124 games with the Washington Nationals, Cruz posted a paltry .651 OPS and 90 OPS+. His 148 OPS+ with the Twins in 2021 was all but gone, and he began a steep decline with the Tampa Bay Rays after he was traded midseason. Cruz still hit ten homers last year, but his .313 OBP was a far-cry from the .344 mark he has put up over the course of his career.
Cruz rebounded from the .283 OBP he posted with the Rays in 55 games last year, but his slugging percentage dropping to .337 really limits what the potential upside is. Of course, the Padres aren’t making a significant financial commitment by any means, but Steamer projections have him tabbed for just 0.2 fWAR a .714 OPS and nine home runs. It’s hard to see how that type of output lasts in the lineup all year.
Then there is Sano.
Playing in only 20 games for Minnesota last year, he posted an unfathomably bad -0.9 fWAR. By the end of the season he was all but asked to leave the team, and there doesn’t appear to be a reunion tour coming. While Jeremy Nygaard wrote a great piece on Sano, it would be shocking to see Minnesota reopen that door. What I do think remains possible is that Sano finds himself still being a productive slugger.
A season ago Sano was hurt. Injuring his meniscus and then having rehab go both slowly and poorly, he never worked himself back into shape. That has been part of the bugaboo his whole career, and tapping into a newfound work ethic probably isn’t something that a new team be able to rely upon.
Sano at his baseline though can still get it done in stretches. During 2021, the Twins saw Sano post a 112 OPS+ and blast 30 home runs. His .819 OPS and 119 OPS+ excluding last year is a better offensive profile than Joey Gallo, and Sano has always shown a solid ability to draw walks and command the strike zone. He has rarely been a free-swinger, struggling more with whiffs on velocity than anything, and there has never been a doubt about his immense power.
What should be notable here is that perception of personality matters. A 42-year-old Nelson Cruz is getting a chance because he brings a great clubhouse presence. The Padres can afford to jettison him if he is truly cooked. Miguel Sano is still looking for his next gig, and while it most likely will need to be a minor league deal, his suitors are not as plentiful given the track record he has accumulated.
There is probably a path for Sano to have a better season than Cruz, and even by a substantial margin. The question is who will bite the bullet on allowing it to play out?
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