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  • Jordan Schafer: Breakout or Bust

    jorgenswest

    By jorgenswest

    Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before?

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    I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performances through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps.

    sml_gallery_74_63_10146.png

    Several of the players listed above have characteristics in speed and ability that allowed them to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer.

    What about after age 27 and their peak values?

    sml_gallery_74_63_9076.png

    • Brady Anderson!
    • 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances.
    • 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27.

    I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level.

    What do the Twins do with Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 roster next year, or do they look elsewhere?

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    Kirby_waved_at_me

    Kirby_waved_at_me 1,047

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I think they should look elsewhere even if they tender Schafer a contract.

     

    Every player is unique (just look at Brady Anderson), but it does seem like regression is likely for Schafer. As long as he can play competent defense, he has value to the Twins. I hope they keep him for 2015 in addition to adding a new outfielder (or two) to challenge him for a starting spot.

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I don't know, but:

     

    If they keep the same players, how are they going to win 92 instead of losing 92?  And if they determine that they cannot win 92, I think that they are better served by playing young people instead of signing mediocre people.   Likely applies more to the Correia-type FA SP that Ryan wants to sign, but to the bench as well.   So, I'd rather see Danny Ortiz and Levi Michael on the bench than Schafer, Parmelee, Colabello, & Nunez and will be fine with a Rosario, Hicks, Arcia as the starting OF

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    mori0189

    mori0189 7

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    He is a fourth outfielder that brings defense and speed off the bench.  It would be a plesent surprise if he did breakout, but there is no way he hits 50 HR like Brady Anderson did lol.  It is going to be fun to watch how this OF develops and turns out for next years team.

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    James Richter

    James Richter 208

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    He's an ideal bench guy for next year. His strengths (baserunning, OF range) dovetail nicely with Arcia's weaknesses. He's a great guy to PR late in a game when they need to give themselves the best possible chance of bringing that runner on 1st around to score. He'll enable Molitor to sub out Arcia and vastly upgrade the OF defense when they're trying to protect a lead.

     

    But yeah, they need to bring somebody in to force him down to #4 on the depth chart.

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    There needs to be a term for when a player redeems his career by settling into a semi-valuable role that, even as a floor, would have deeply disappointed fans at the height of his prospect hype. 

     

    How about "bust out."

     

    How about a Delmon?

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    iTwins

    iTwins 287

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think it would be ill advised to think that Schafer's "breakout" with the Twins was a sign of him turning things around. I hope the Twins know this and are working on contingency plans...but, the team did run Bartlett out there last year, so I won't make assumptions.

     

    At this point, I think we know who Schafer is - a speedy, defensive outfielder without much of a bat. He's a perfectly fine 4th OF and a great tool to have on the bench - but he's absolutely the 25th man on your 25 man roster. As soon as someone better comes along, he's gone.

     

    He looked good in comparison to others last year with the Twins because he was the only actual speedy OF on the roster (although Danny did OK faking it). If / when his bat regresses to the norm, he's back to being a faster version of Mastroianni.

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    Brandon

    Brandon 2,195

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I thought I commented on this before.  There is a former Twins who perfectly comps in this study Jason Tyner.  He had 2 + seasons of hitting .290+ for the Twins after turning 27 in playing in parts of 4 seasons total.  Then was done in his early 30's.  He was a fast base stealer too though not as fast as Schaefer.  I can see Schaefer as having up to 6 more seasons where he gets 200-400 AB's in a season and steals 20-40 bases before being done around 35-36. That's my projection for his career.  But he'll have to hit and work his way on base at least .320 OBP to be able to get that much playing time. 

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    old nurse

    old nurse 2,366

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Schafer was a round 3 pick. It wouldbe unfair to label him a bust. A breakout season is highly unlikely as I do not see in his history where he has been above average as a hitter. What has not been there is not going to happen.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

    As a fourth outfielder, Scafer is just fine. The problem is when you rely on someone of his ilk for more than a platoon/bench role. He has the tools to do what you need from a bench guy: he runs fast, plays acceptable defense, and can fill several roles late in the game.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    As a fourth outfielder, Scafer is just fine. The problem is when you rely on someone of his ilk for more than a platoon/bench role. He has the tools to do what you need from a bench guy: he runs fast, plays acceptable defense, and can fill several roles late in the game.

     

    The even bigger problem is when you rely on multiple players like him to be a starter.....

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I thought I commented on this before.  There is a former Twins who perfectly comps in this study Jason Tyner.  He had 2 + seasons of hitting .290+ for the Twins after turning 27 in playing in parts of 4 seasons total. 

     

    No need to get antsy, I'm sure the Twins are considering bringing back Tyner.

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    As a fourth outfielder, Scafer is just fine. The problem is when you rely on someone of his ilk for more than a platoon/bench role. He has the tools to do what you need from a bench guy: he runs fast, plays acceptable defense, and can fill several roles late in the game.

    He looks more like a 5th OFer to me.

     

    But teams don't carry 5 OFers any more.

     

    So he looks like a guy to keep in Rochester to me.

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    ShouldaCouldaWoulda

    ShouldaCouldaWoulda 464

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    He is probably useful on the 25 man roster...for this team. But, lets be completely honest that this guy is nothing special and never will be for any great length of time. He might get and stay hot for longer than he ever should, but that happens with several other nobody's.

     

    I never believed in the nobody's who played decent for short periods of time like Tyner, Lew Ford, and several of the other past one hit wonder Twins OF's through the years, who I do not feel like looking up. 

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    DocBauer

    DocBauer 14,431

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Point: every season there are former disappointments and washouts who suddenly become anything from a borderline star, to a quality starter, to a nice useful player. Schafer is young enough to have developed, had a light come on, be in the right place at the right time with the right coaching, etc. Stud? Seriously doubt it. But solid contributor? Absolutely.

     

    Counterpoint: He's never come close before despite talent and being a top rated prospect. Why now?

     

    The investment to being him back is small, potential return solid, and you'd be silly not to. He could earn a share of an OF spot, or at least provide a solid glove and PR/SB ability off the bench. And you're only looking at 1 year for now.

     

    He's a better, more talented Tyner. But hey, you need bench guys to contribute as well.

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    stringer bell

    stringer bell 12,723

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    Certainly, the years of poor production have limited what is reasonable to expect for him. What he supplied to the Twins in 41 games was certainly serviceable. The team, of course, needs to have a backup plan. I think that he can provide such a contribution again. The speed and base-stealing is an elite tool. To me, that is the difference between him and a guy like Tyner, or actually Mastroianni, for that matter.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

    He looks more like a 5th OFer to me.

     

    But teams don't carry 5 OFers any more.

     

    So he looks like a guy to keep in Rochester to me.

    Eh, I think he does enough right and showed enough potential last season that he deserves to be kept around for at least the beginning of 2015.

     

    And given the continued collapse of Hicks, it's not as if he's blocking anyone at this point.

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