Joe Ryan Has Another Level

I think how he locates the offspeed pitches this year will be the key for Ryan. He did a pretty good job of keeping the slider diving at and out of the edge of the zone much of the time, but you can see on his heat map at Baseball Savant that he also had too many where he hung it up high in the zone, and I suspect that's where he got hammered with it. If he can locate those pitches more consistently (the curve was pretty scattershot, which probably helped him avoid getting launched on it, but also added to his walks since player could just lay off it) I think he'll have more success and probably bring his expected values closer to actual.

I'm a Joe Ryan fan. He works fast and pitches unafraid, and I love the different look his fastball presents.

I'm still high on this kid. Clearly his middle season numbers coinsided with his covid and return. It lingers. A good changeup could do him wonders, try to get away from the curve he likes to keep hanging. 

Don't know what to say about his projected numbers but by the eye test ,  I do like his confidence on the mound  ...

Give him the ball and he will give you everything he's got on that particular day  ...

Ryan is not the pitcher I worry about. Give him the ball and work on our other rookies. 

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

I like everything about Joe Ryan.  I do have concerns that eventually batters will figure out his fastball and with the lack of high velocity it may start to get hit.  Hence, I fully agree that he needs to focus on his off speed pitches.  I would love to see him incorporate a change up as with the FB and off speed pitches it could be devastating for hitters especially if used less frequently.

Joe Ryan is a very good pitcher he has a fantastic 4-seam FB and he's working on his slider that he credits Archer for getting it started. I think stamina is the key, after your rookie season you are building stamina. It's easy to miss your location or hang a pitch if you're tired. I think covid did effect his stamina so having covid & his rookie season behind him, he has a great foundation to work from. So I expect more quality innings from him in '23.  

2 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

Agreed.  The thing that they try to fix leads to more problems then before the fix.  Leave him alone.

It's a completely different era of baseball. BUT Joe Ryans age 26 stats are similar to Brad Radke's in a few ways. Innings are not even close but that's due to the 2 times through the order metrics. Quite a few of the others are similar. FIP, WHIP, BB/9 H/9. Maybe we're lucky enough to see another Brad Radke. Off speed pitches will likely improve over time. Berrios got shelled his rookie season. He was vastly improved over the next few seasons. Ryan has been better so far. Not every stud pitcher throws 99mph. 

5 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

He does throw the fastball "more and more," it's his only plus pitch, he throws it 60% of the time, and that usage isn't a secret. Pushing Ryan to develop at least one other respectable off speed pitch isn't about fixing what isn't broken, or forcing him away from using his FB; it's about trying to raise his ceiling from fringy back end guy to solid middle of the rotation guy. Better teams were quick to make the adjustment this year; Ryan's numbers against playoff teams were awful. 

6 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

The Lance Lynn approach to pitching. I agree. Throw it till they hit it then add in your slider/curveball/change up.

Joe Ryan did Joe Ryan stuff as a rookie.

More innings pitched than hits allowed: his ratio was ridiculous in the minors, such as 2019 as he ascended from low A to AA. 123 IP vs 73 hits allowed is crazy. Well last year with the Twins he put up 147 IP to 115 hits. For a rookie?

More strikeouts that innings pitched: he did this routinely in the minors, all about the same ratio, but again 2019, 123 IP vs 183 Ks. His 2022 numbers were 147 IP and 151 K, not bad for a rookie. All that while going through COVID.

BBs to Ks: Ryan doesn't have a problem with control. He had a career high full season total of 47 walks last season, with a career high 147 IP, less than a third of his Ks. His entire number of walks over 3 minor leagues seasons was 53, as opposed to 326 ks, in 225 innings.

Next year will be key: will he get scouted out and suffer the sophomore slump, or keep doing Joe Ryan stuff? I like the latter.

16 hours ago, weitz41 said:

It's a completely different era of baseball. BUT Joe Ryans age 26 stats are similar to Brad Radke's in a few ways. Innings are not even close but that's due to the 2 times through the order metrics. Quite a few of the others are similar. FIP, WHIP, BB/9 H/9. Maybe we're lucky enough to see another Brad Radke. Off speed pitches will likely improve over time. Berrios got shelled his rookie season. He was vastly improved over the next few seasons. Ryan has been better so far. Not every stud pitcher throws 99mph. 

Great comparison.  Could the Twins be so fortunate to get 10+ years of Radke type success from Ryan?

Joe Ryan has already made the Cruz deal look amazing but I agree he can unlock another level with some further development of his offspeed pitches. Given how good his FB is with the deception it has I think his floor is probably a low # 3 starter but if he unlocks more he could easily be a very good #2 pitcher.