It’s Time to Pay Byron Buxton

I think Berrios should be the first to get paid. At least he can stay healthy.

The Twins are in a really interesting position with Buxton. We all saw the incredible spring he had, really on pace for MVP. If that truly was a glimpse of what we he has developed into, then yes. Extending Buxton, regardless on injuries, should be the priority for this organization. Yeah, the injuries are a major red flag, but how many guys can do what he is able to do, when healthy, in MLB? Trout, that's it. If the Twins do decide to let him walk, then becomes the 2nd coming of Willie Mays and stays healthy, we all will scream "cheap Pohlads" , blah blah... It really comes down to potential. Buxton is a generational, organization changing talent. If it comes down to he or Berrios in terms of getting paid, lets go with upside in Buxton. We know what Berrios is now and I'm not quite sure he has the true no.1 upside he wants to get paid like. Gamble on the perennial MVP that Buxton could become, it's the Twins, how many times does a player like this come along? 

He reminds me of Rich Harden.

Pay Buxton at this time, what is the pay for injury prone guy (bad luck or not on some injuries, injured nonetheless).  Team friendly deal in today's market, not sure what that would be.  I would say 4 year deal, $60M, with half guaranteed with incentives for another $20M based on games played (%'s), team leader in categories, player of the month, MVP, gold gloves, etc. etc..  He makes share under $6M today and his base goes to $15M based on what if he is healthy conversation. COVID influenced financials where teams aren't making hand over fist money with attendance restrictions, cash in has to be part of the conversation.  His agent won't buy it though.  Is worth a crap ton more, not in my opinion but I'm not writing the checks either

Buxton is having a better year than George Springer ever had and it's not particularly close.  He is even having a better year than Betts ever had.  Buxton and his agent are thinking he is a breakout super star.  I can't imagine they would even consider a $100M at this point.  They are thinking they are in line for a giant payday.  Many people have a very self-sided view of their value.  He is not thinking that his injuries should negate his value.  He is thinking those were fluke injuries.  He is not thinking about the way he has played throughout his career.  He is thinking this is his new norm.  Maybe he will continue to be something close.  Regardless, he is not accepting a deal that does not pay him like a superstar.  He can just play it out and he is going to get $100M+.  If he plays it out anywhere near the way he is playing it's $200M+ at least in his mind.

The only way this team sign Buxton at this point is by winning the bid once he becomes a free agent.  The chances might be slightly better if we kept him but there is no way I would pass on a return that included a really good SP prospect or perhaps a top 50 guy that can play SS or CF.    

The Twins can’t give a guy with Burton’s lack of durability more than 4 years and not more than $18 Million a year. However, 4 years/$72 million is a fair deal for both sides. 

The Twins should also consider a trade before the deadline. 

39 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I am as high on Buxton as anyone, but I can't subscribe to this. He's a superstar, and his numbers are bonkers, but they are in 26 games. His market, with the Twins or otherwise, is going to be reflective of a player that has missed substantial time and I don't think that should or would be a surprise to his camp.

I agree with you completely on this perspective.  What I am suggesting is that it's quite probable that Buxton and his agent have a different perspective.  I know I would not advise him to take $100M today and it's also really common for a player to be looking for a much higher payday than they get.  At the very least they are thinking that if he can play at a high level for the next year and a half he is going to cash a much MUCH larger check.  So, why sign now when the $100M level is basically assured.  What did JD Martinez want compared to what he ultimately got.  In this case you have a guy who is as good as anyone in MLB right now.  I would not be even remotely surprised if he has a visions of a $200M payday.  He is NOT signing now for $100M

IMO, the only way we sign Buxton is by being the highest bidder in the free agency process.  So, why not take a elite prospect if we can get one now and join that bidding process when it comes time.  Would the Rays let him go for a comp pick.  Absolutely not.  

I don't think 5/$100 will get you even close to signing Buxton. I'm guessing his ask will start somewhere more around 6/$200, and his actual signing will be something like 5/$150. There are a few teams with enough money to take on the risk of a contract that size, and the potential payoff if he stays healthy is enormous. Buxton and his agent know this, and will not accept less. I wouldn't if I were him anyway.

I think the Twins really need to look at Buxton objectively. 2017 is Buxton's best year not because of productivity, but because he played in 140 games, and it remains the only season he's ever played more than 92. In 2017, Byron managed 4.9 bWAR or 3.6 fWAR as a center fielder. Byron ranks 18th in MLB for center fielders from 2018-2021 with 6.3 fWAR, trailing Max Kepler by 2.4 WAR.

Including MilB, here are Buxton's total games played for the years.
2012 - 48
2013 - 125
2014 - 31
2015 - 118 (72 MiLB, 46 MLB)
2016 - 141 (49 MiLB, 92 MLB)
2017 - 143 (3 MiLB, 140 MLB) missed 12% of MLB games
2018 - 64 (36 MiLB, 28 MLB) missed 82% of MLB games
2019 - 88 (1 MiLB, 87 MLB) missed 46% of MLB games
2020 - 39 (0 MiLB, 39 MLB) missed 35% of MLB games
2021 - 30 (3 MiLB, 27 MLB) missed 65% of MLB games
Regardless of how freak some of Buxton's injuries may be, there are semi-chronic issues (back, wrist, hamstring, migraines) underneath the broken hands and as Buxton ages, it seems unrealistic to expect his missed games to decrease so expecting Buxton to miss 80 games a year would be fairly reasonable. I think it would be completely unrealistic to expect Buxton to play in 100+ games a season.

If everything was in a vacuum, 80 games from Buxton is still valuable. Say 3-4 WAR valuable, but the Twins would still need to keep a player who is able to be starting center fielder on the roster to cover the 80 games a year Buxton will miss. The aforementioned "backup" will A. not appreciate being relagated to the corners whenever Buxton can play B. want to be paid like the center fielder they really are. C. force roster crunches when both Buxton and "backup" are active.

There's another important concern with Buxton, and that's his dependence on speed. Besides Buxton's amazing feats in the outfield made possible by his blazing speed, he can expect 20%+ of his hits to come from weak grounders which would be automatic outs for 80% of MLB players. When Buxton's speed starts to decline, he'll be uniquely vulnerable to seeing his WAR plummet because so many of his "hits" are of the poor contact, slow rolling grounder variety. Taking away 5% of his hits from a drop in speed would reduce his OPS by about 50pts along with dropping his superhuman fielding values. Buxton would no longer be an MVP caliber player, even when healthy, and suddenly, he's only worth 2-3 WAR per season because of his missed 80 games. How prepared are the Twins to gamble Buxton doesn't lose that single step as he ages past 30?
2019 = .262/.314/.513 OPS .827 versus .236/.281/.487 OPS .768. 
2020 = .254/.267/.577 OPS .844 versus .238/.244/.561 OPS .805.

A lot of people wind up gambling a lot more than they wanted to because of the fear of missing out. The "what if???" scenario. I don't think there are a lot of MLB teams out there who are willing to gamble on Buxton and I don't think the Twins are in a position where they can afford to do it. I'd prefer trading him this year or chancing the ability to sign him as a free agent at the end of 2022. Buxton's injury history is too long and too varied for even a full, healthy year to help his image so no matter what happens, Buxton's value isn't likely to increase much.

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I am as high on Buxton as anyone, but I can't subscribe to this. He's a superstar, and his numbers are bonkers, but they are in 26 games. His market, with the Twins or otherwise, is going to be reflective of a player that has missed substantial time and I don't think that should or would be a surprise to his camp.

The guy can't stay healthy! How do you spend crazy money on a guy that you can't rely on?  Let him get healthy and hope he doesn't tear a fingernail and trade him in the off season

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Yankees paid oft-injured and not as good Aaron Hicks 7/70....they'd pay twice that to Buxton, at least. They and other big-market teams CAN take the risk that Buxton plays more than 120 games a year.....I just don't know if the Twins can. Like, I don't know the answer for a team like the Twins. The Twins paid sometimes injured Donaldson 4/92.....Anyone think Buxton is worth less than that? I doubt the Twins or Byron do.....

Maybe they will, and I say let them. The dude can't stay on the field. Does he get that regardless of how many more games he plays this year? What about next? Assuming there even is a season, I don't believe he'll play another 100 games before 2023.

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What incentive does Buxton have to sign a 5/100 deal? If he signs that deal it's because he's given into the idea that he'll be hurt every year of his career. If I'm his agent I'm telling him the Twins can pay you 200+ now or we go year to year to establish health and superstardom then sign a mega deal. I can't imagine Buxton believes he'll suffer fastball to the head concussions every year, or fastball to the hand broken bones every year. Maybe you can talk him into a 2 year deal at 30 mil? But why would he give up his prime years for 100m instead of playing out next season with the faith that he can stay healthy, win an MVP and get 8 years $200m?

Thats exactly what I think he should do. I mean if I were the Twins, I'd maybe offer 2/50, for what he's done and on the off chance 2023 looks better than it does today. 

I think some of you are correct. I do not see 6/200 because of his health issues.  I can see 6/150.  If the Twins do not know what he wants the FO is much worse than reported.   With his latest injury, it will be hard to get full value this summer (I know it sucks).  If he wants more than 6/150 or close, I believe the Twins have to trade him this year, and go for the bigger rebuild.

We do not know if their will be a season next year (full or shortened).  The CBA is likely to undergo major changes.  Either the QO could be removed or FA moved to after 4 years or 5.  If the owners go that route, I would guess they would want a hard cap, that is not going to happen.  So there is a lot of risk here.  I would pay within reason, but don't know status or if reason is even a possibility.