Is José Miranda a Deadline Trade Candidate?

When you look at trades Miranda might yield a very good reliever with a high upside and another pitching prospect thrown in. The only way Miranda brings back a high level starter is he is the second piece with the first piece being a high upside starting pitching prospect. Another month of data on Archer, Gray and Ryan is still needed to see if such a trade is prudent.  My guess would be don’t hold your breath for a trade. If Smeltzer continues his strong work and Winder comes back strong it would be more likely Archer would get traded before Miranda. 

Miranda turns 24 at the end of the month. Thanks for the joke that he is an older prospect.

48 minutes ago, MILB Truther said:

Martin is arraez light (as in light in the ba/obp department) with worse defense. He seems to have the yips throwing the ball anywhere in the infield but especially on the left side. He is not an option unless he improves defensively or the twins are desperate to “justify” their investment. Hopefully he is ready in a few years (before he is rule 5 eligible).

Urshela should be no more than a stopgap (which is what I believe the twins are using him as). Once the minor league Calvary is ready (Royce, steer, and perhaps julien), his services are no longer needed. And the Calvary is coming quick.

I believe that Urshela and Correa are two of the main reasons why the Twins have turned it around and are winning now because of their gold glove caliber defense and strong hitting. They are winning players from winning cultures/organizations and should both be extended as part of a potential WS level team. Also add in Sanchez as I read or heard that he also came in and set about imparting "winning culture" habits by talking to some players as needed.

I’ve sensed that the Twins FO and everybody around believe that Miranda will hit. Latroy Hawkins emphasized this. He’s just in the beginning of his rookie year. Remember how Sano wa s thought to be lacking defensively at third when he first came up. 

I’ve seen some really poor defensive play from Miranda but also some flashes of a good defensive player. Remember the play at first where he angled into foul territory to avoid collision and shorten the distance to the ball?

Painful as it would be, I’d rather trade Kirilloff for a true #1 starter. Also Martin could be available. For me Urshela and Correa should be fixtures for at least the next 5 years with Buxton and Arraez. Lewis and Celestino are both special talents.

If they’re going to trade a guy with 5-6 years control, then the #1 coming back, Castillo, Montas or Mahle needs to be extended.

I think a World Series Championship is possible this year if Gray and Ryan are moved to #2 and #3. So let’s do it!!!

4 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I believe that Urshela and Correa are two of the main reasons why the Twins have turned it around and are winning now because of their gold glove caliber defense and strong hitting. They are winning players from winning cultures/organizations and should both be extended as part of a potential WS level team. Also add in Sanchez as I read or heard that he also came in and set about imparting "winning culture" habits by talking to some players as needed.

I agree that having players set the culture is important, but urshela is definitely expendable out of those three guys (and hopefully part of a trade to help improve the pitching staff).

He is an average fielder at best (definitely not gold glove) and his defensive metrics put him as one of the worst third baseman in the league (-3 OOA). Eye test he is also not gold glove (he is not even close to a top 10 by eye test). His bat is league average right now, but league average bat and below average fielding makes you expendable, especially at 3rd where you want a good bat.

I’m glad the culture has changed and he has been a part, but his days are numbered on this team (he is also 30 years old with one year left of arb). I think he can stick around in a role maybe until the end of next season possibly, but that’s only if one of the Prospects doesn’t play him out of the lineup or off the team entirely first.

Miranda would be one of the prospects I'd be most okay moving. If you can get a decent reliever for him at the deadline I would make that move. His poor fielding means that he has to be a consistently good to great hitter and I don't know if I see that in his future.

Who aren't the Twins trading according to TD?

13 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Who aren't the Twins trading according to TD?

Buxton... That is all.

50 minutes ago, James said:

Buxton... That is all.

Give it time. 

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

You got that right. We need relievers. If we could get 2 "B" quality relievers that would greatly improve our chances, and cost a lot less!

My wish would be one B+/A- BP arm and having Canterino explode onto the scene 6 weeks from now looking as dominant as Duran.  As long as I am wishing and hoping, let's hope Maeda contributes come October as well.

I honestly hadn't thought of Miranda being used in a trade. I guess in my head, he was part of the next wave and wasn't going anywhere. But he does make sense with Urshela around, Arraez able to play a solid 3B, Steer's development, as well as the possibility of Lewis changing positions if the almost unimaginable happens and Correa ends up sticking around.

Miranda's bat is real. He's probably going to be a solid AVG hitter with decent contact and should give you 55-60  XBH every year. He's got the arm and enough athleticism to be a solid 3B, though he needs polish. Most young guys do, especially when they're swimming in the deep end for the first time. 1B is a fallback option.

He's not going to bring a TOP SP without being paired with at lest one more top 10-20 prospect. Period. 

And I think he's too good with too nice of a future to trade for a RP unless you're getting a dynamite one with at least a couple more years of control. Even then, with the volatility of the profession, a toss in might be needed.

So yeah, it makes sense to list him as a viable trade option. But either he's part of a great deal, or you probably keep him for now.

3 hours ago, MILB Truther said:

I agree that having players set the culture is important, but urshela is definitely expendable out of those three guys (and hopefully part of a trade to help improve the pitching staff).

He is an average fielder at best (definitely not gold glove) and his defensive metrics put him as one of the worst third baseman in the league (-3 OOA). Eye test he is also not gold glove (he is not even close to a top 10 by eye test). His bat is league average right now, but league average bat and below average fielding makes you expendable, especially at 3rd where you want a good bat.

I’m glad the culture has changed and he has been a part, but his days are numbered on this team (he is also 30 years old with one year left of arb). I think he can stick around in a role maybe until the end of next season possibly, but that’s only if one of the Prospects doesn’t play him out of the lineup or off the team entirely first.

Of any player on the Twins being traded at the end of the of this season I would say Urshela would be on the top of my list. A Steer, Miranda platoon is the most likely replacement.  I don't see the Twins paying for a guy with maybe average offense and replaceable defense at 3rd when they have two cheaper guys ready to contribute with higher future upside.  The Twins also have a lot of players to protect from Rule V so they will have to slim down somewhere and Urshela seems a likely candidate IMO.

I get that he has made some amazing defensive plays but his defensive metrics don't live up to the hype of those few great plays.  If the Twins do make the playoffs this year I believe his veteran experience is still an asset but after this year I would try and trade him and spend that money some where else most likely on pitching.

No trades at mid-season. This is the year for the young guys to prove out. Until then they're all basically unproven prospects. Name me one team that has a plethora of No 1 and No 2 pitchers and will consider trading one of them for a handful of unproven prospects. We keep our guys together this year, pitchers and position players, and play them regularly. We might just find out our "ace" is already in the rotation.

21 hours ago, MILB Truther said:

I agree that having players set the culture is important, but urshela is definitely expendable out of those three guys (and hopefully part of a trade to help improve the pitching staff).

He is an average fielder at best (definitely not gold glove) and his defensive metrics put him as one of the worst third baseman in the league (-3 OOA). Eye test he is also not gold glove (he is not even close to a top 10 by eye test). His bat is league average right now, but league average bat and below average fielding makes you expendable, especially at 3rd where you want a good bat.

I’m glad the culture has changed and he has been a part, but his days are numbered on this team (he is also 30 years old with one year left of arb). I think he can stick around in a role maybe until the end of next season possibly, but that’s only if one of the Prospects doesn’t play him out of the lineup or off the team entirely first.

Every commentator with baseball knowledge has piped in that Urshela is having a spectacular defensive season. Have you been watching the games? And sorry, there is no metric that can measure defense range, the SABR metric UZR? is worthless based on my experience.

I think that you have to go all the way back to Brooks Robinson to find a better defensive 3rd baseman than Gio Urshela.

We agree to disagree on this but we couldn’t disagree more. But that’s what makes it interesting. Two Twins fans looking at the same player with 360 degrees different opinions. I know, however, that we both sincerely want what it takes to make the Twins a World Series Champion. Heck, I want 1972-1974 Oakland A's kind of success and think it’s possible building around Urshela, Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco and hopefully Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda although all 3 might not stay if 1 is traded for a top level pitcher.

18 hours ago, Dman said:

Of any player on the Twins being traded at the end of the of this season I would say Urshela would be on the top of my list. A Steer, Miranda platoon is the most likely replacement.  I don't see the Twins paying for a guy with maybe average offense and replaceable defense at 3rd when they have two cheaper guys ready to contribute with higher future upside.  The Twins also have a lot of players to protect from Rule V so they will have to slim down somewhere and Urshela seems a likely candidate IMO.

I get that he has made some amazing defensive plays but his defensive metrics don't live up to the hype of those few great plays.  If the Twins do make the playoffs this year I believe his veteran experience is still an asset but after this year I would try and trade him and spend that money some where else most likely on pitching.

 

Those metrics, in my opinion, any defensive metric except errors (which is of limited value) is attempting an unobtainable reading of a defensive player’s worth. This was an accepted fact until what I would call the SABR fad grew into increasing, but ill-placed popularity. 

I don’t reject SABR stats because I’m old school but because I constantly see them being used to draw conclusions that any good scout will tell you is unwarranted. But, in the end,  anyone - be they a fan or a front office person is free to use UZR and whatever evolving version of WAR they like or the flawed OPS+ to make their evaluations.

Stats are exciting. I took 6 courses in Northwestern’s Masters in Predictive Analytics courses so I love stats. But the expression, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics" kind of holds true when new, unproven statistics are used to come up with such silly conclusions as " Eddie Rosario with his ~300 batting average and team leading 109 RBIs and overall at least average defense, fantastic throwing arm, is the worst left fielder in the league. Or in the current case Gio Urshela is not a good fielder due to UZR or some other totally unreliable defensive statistic.

WHen some Twins fans (a lot?) were saying Eddie was a bad overall LF. I did some research and his WAR was north of 3. Then they subtracted all the way from 3.2 or 3.4 down to a final 0.9 due to defense. No way his defense was so bad that it took about 75% of his overall value away! He caught most balls hit to him, made an occasional bonehead play but then contributed to winning with his throwing arm

I don’t think that in the tradition of statistical analysis, there is any way to run a two group trial and prove whether any of the statistics are accurate or not.

50 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Every commentator with baseball knowledge has piped in that Urshela is having a spectacular defensive season. Have you been watching the games? And sorry, there is no metric that can measure defense range, the SABR metric UZR? is worthless based on my experience.

I think that you have to go all the way back to Brooks Robinson to find a better defensive 3rd baseman than Gio Urshela.

We agree to disagree on this but we couldn’t disagree more. But that’s what makes it interesting. Two Twins fans looking at the same player with 360 degrees different opinions. I know, however, that we both sincerely want what it takes to make the Twins a World Series Champion. Heck, I want 1972-1974 Oakland A's kind of success and think it’s possible building around Urshela, Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco and hopefully Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda although all 3 might not stay if 1 is traded for a top level pitcher.

If you actually believe that Urshela’s only peer on defense is Brooks Robinson, then I can no longer trust any opinion regarding defense you might have (and probably anything baseball related for that matter).

18 hours ago, Dman said:

Of any player on the Twins being traded at the end of the of this season I would say Urshela would be on the top of my list. A Steer, Miranda platoon is the most likely replacement.  I don't see the Twins paying for a guy with maybe average offense and replaceable defense at 3rd when they have two cheaper guys ready to contribute with higher future upside.  The Twins also have a lot of players to protect from Rule V so they will have to slim down somewhere and Urshela seems a likely candidate IMO.

I get that he has made some amazing defensive plays but his defensive metrics don't live up to the hype of those few great plays.  If the Twins do make the playoffs this year I believe his veteran experience is still an asset but after this year I would try and trade him and spend that money some where else most likely on pitching.

 

I too seriously doubt Urshela is here next year and Miranda has a very low probability of being traded.  One of Miranda or Steer will be the regular 3B and one will be on the bench.   Here is how I would rank the top 10 most likely not to be here next year.  

1    Dylan Bundy
2    Miguel Sano
3    Carlos Correa
4    Gio Urshela
5    Chris Archer
6    Gary Sanchez
7    Kyle Garlick
8    Kenta Maeda
9    Emilio Pagen
10    Polanco or Arraez
 

Obviously, Sanchez is a FA but I could see them resigning him and Archer has a mutual option.  Bundy has a team option but my bet is he is traded at the deadline.

29 minutes ago, MILB Truther said:

If you actually believe that Urshela’s only peer on defense is Brooks Robinson, then I can no longer trust any opinion regarding defense you might have (and probably anything baseball related for that matter).

Have to agree the Brooks Robinson comparison is waaaay out there.  Even among current players there are several as good or better.  Matt Olson and Nolan Arenado are significantly better.

6 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Those metrics, in my opinion, any defensive metric except errors (which is of limited value) is attempting an unobtainable reading of a defensive player’s worth. This was an accepted fact until what I would call the SABR fad grew into increasing, but ill-placed popularity. 

I don’t reject SABR stats because I’m old school but because I constantly see them being used to draw conclusions that any good scout will tell you is unwarranted. But, in the end,  anyone - be they a fan or a front office person is free to use UZR and whatever evolving version of WAR they like or the flawed OPS+ to make their evaluations.

Stats are exciting. I took 6 courses in Northwestern’s Masters in Predictive Analytics courses so I love stats. But the expression, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics" kind of holds true when new, unproven statistics are used to come up with such silly conclusions as " Eddie Rosario with his ~300 batting average and team leading 109 RBIs and overall at least average defense, fantastic throwing arm, is the worst left fielder in the league. Or in the current case Gio Urshela is not a good fielder due to UZR or some other totally unreliable defensive statistic.

WHen some Twins fans (a lot?) were saying Eddie was a bad overall LF. I did some research and his WAR was north of 3. Then they subtracted all the way from 3.2 or 3.4 down to a final 0.9 due to defense. No way his defense was so bad that it took about 75% of his overall value away! He caught most balls hit to him, made an occasional bonehead play but then contributed to winning with his throwing arm

I don’t think that in the tradition of statistical analysis, there is any way to run a two group trial and prove whether any of the statistics are accurate or not.

 

I will say it has taken me quite a while to come around on defensive metrics and I think there are others that wonder if how they are calculated in WAR is completely accurate.  However, They do a ton of research and comparison on this and with all the technology they have to measure, it is more than just an eye test now.

Still I will say I have enjoyed Urshela as player on and off the field. I have been amazed by some of the plays he has made and I think he is a good player.  I just don't see the Twins keeping him when they have younger options that shouldn't be much worse and cost significantly less.  If the Twins get lucky one the guys replacing could end up with more WAR.  Given the roster crunch they have right I just don't see room for him next year.

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I too seriously doubt Urshela is here next year and Miranda has a very low probability of being traded.  One of Miranda or Steer will be the regular 3B and one will be on the bench.   Here is how I would rank the top 10 most likely not to be here next year.  

1    Dylan Bundy
2    Miguel Sano
3    Carlos Correa
4    Gio Urshela
5    Chris Archer
6    Gary Sanchez
7    Kyle Garlick
8    Kenta Maeda
9    Emilio Pagen
10    Polanco or Arraez
 

Obviously, Sanchez is a FA but I could see them resigning him and Archer has a mutual option.  Bundy has a team option but my bet is he is traded at the deadline.

Hadn't thought about it that much but that is a good list.  I don't disagree with any of the top 7.  Will be a very interesting off season next year.

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Hadn't thought about it that much but that is a good list.  I don't disagree with any of the top 7.  Will be a very interesting off season next year.

The last three are not very likely which of course is why they are last on the list.  However, I seem them as possible under the right circumstances.  For example, if Kirilloff really rakes the remainder of this season, the impact of letting go one of Polanco or Arraez could be less than the impact gained given the right trade.  I guess I should have also had Miranda or Steer as one of the options but I was going for a top 10 list.  

I think the concepts Lavine learned in Cleveland will have some influence.  If you look at their top 13 players in terms of WAR, 4 were drafted and Ramirez was an Intl signing.  8 were acquired by trading establish players for prospects and quite a few had made it to the MLB but were not yet established.  Trading one of Polanco or Arraez would be consistent with that practice.

9 hours ago, MILB Truther said:

If you actually believe that Urshela’s only peer on defense is Brooks Robinson, then I can no longer trust any opinion regarding defense you might have (and probably anything baseball related for that matter).

We can’t have a discussion on Urshela’s defense vs. anyone because you completely lost Me by considering it necessary to state that Urshela’s metrics put him as one of the worst in the league and that he isn’t even top 10 by the eye test. Ridiculous!!!

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have to agree the Brooks Robinson comparison is waaaay out there.  Even among current players there are several as good or better.  Matt Olson and Nolan Arenado are significantly better.

I don’t know of any other player that has made a reaching, near miraculous diving stop, roll over on his back and laying on the ground, on his back, from his but get enough on the throw to throw the runner out. Cite me an example where another player has done that. Plus, his throwing arm is strong and reliable and he has made many more spectacular plays than the one I described. I’ve followed baseball for 58 years and NEVER, not once, see a 3rd baseman make a play like that. And he almost did it again.

Per Aaron Gleeman quoting Rocco Baldelli:

Rocco Baldelli, pregame, on Gio Urshela's defense: "He's been exceptional at third base. Really on all kinds of plays. His feel for the game is high-end. He has one of the better baseball minds of anyone. His feel is exceptional, his awareness is great."

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 

I think the concepts Falvey learned in Cleveland will have some influence.  If you look at their top 13 players in terms of WAR, 4 were drafted and Ramirez was an Intl signing.  8 were acquired by trading establish players for prospects and quite a few had made it to the MLB but were not yet established.  Trading one of Polanco or Arraez would be consistent with that practice.

FTFY

2 hours ago, wabene said:

FTFY

Thanks.  Asleep at the wheel, I guess.