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On Sunday, in a series against a red hot playoff contender, Tyler Duffey entered the game with a 8-3 lead, courtesy of solid pitching, some good luck, and a remarkable offensive performance by the Twins against Kevin Gausman. He left it having given up a walk, three hits, a three-run home run, and recording just two outs. Jovani Moran replaced Duffey to get the final out for the Twins and secure an unlikely series win in Toronto.
I’m not usually one to advocate for reactionary moves or cut bait on long-time contributors to the team, but it’s time to move on from Tyler Duffey.
Duffey By the Numbers
Let’s start by putting some of Duffey’s 2022 numbers in perspective. Out of 193 qualified relievers, he ranks 172nd in ERA, 187th in xERA, and 170th in HR/9. I could go on, but I won’t. Suffice to say, there are a lot of categories in which Duffey ranks in the bottom handful of relievers in the league.
If we look into more advanced numbers, we see a similar story. Looking at his Statcast profile percentiles, Duffey is 6th percentile in average exit velocity, first percentile in HardHit%, first percentile is xBA. The list goes on, and it does not make for encouraging reading.
Results and Process
Duffey’s numbers may be poor, but perhaps a peek under the hood tells a story his numbers do not? After all, we’re talking about the same reliever who managed a 33.6 K% and 2.79 xERA in 2020, and was even better in 2019.
Duffey’s command tells the story of his 2022. Here’s the location of his four seam fastball in 2022.
Here’s the location of his curveball in 2022.
Let’s compare the curveball to that of Jhoan Duran in 2022.
There are two major takeaways here. Duffey is leaving his fastball out over the heart of the plate far too often. He has some of the poorest velocity and stuff in the Twins bullpen. Duffey’s fastball location is a non-starter. Simply put, it is not a good enough pitch to have location this poor. Opposing hitters are teeing off on it, to the tune of a .649 SLG and 64% hard hit %.
Additionally, he’s throwing too many uncompetitive curveballs. There are too many breaking pitches starting off the plate and finishing way off the plate. Hitters are picking up on this and sitting on his fastball because his curveball often starts slightly too low or too far outside.
Roster Crunch
Duffey earns $3.2 million in 2022, hardly expensive for a reliever. Even though from a performance perspective I think he should be DFA'd, I think it’s unlikely the Twins will. He has a lengthy tenure with the team and is a strong presence in the clubhouse. The challenge becomes, who do you send down to the minors to keep Duffey on the roster? Every option I can think of has an advantage in velocity or stuff that I wouldn’t sacrifice to keep Duffey on the team. Trevor Megill? Throws 98 mph and has a 36% K% in his first 8 innings. Jharel Cotton? 3.22 xERA so far in 2022. Jovani Moran? 46% K% and a legitimately dominant left-handed changeup. Throw into the mix that Jorge Alcala will return to the team in the next week and give the bullpen a much needed boost and the Twins could have a bullpen crunch in the near future.
Duffey has been an incredible servant to the Twins and burned brightly in 2019 and 2020 as a legitimately dominant reliever. But now is not a time for sentimentality. The AL Central is there for the taking. Which inning of a close game do you want Tyler Duffey pitching in September against the White Sox?
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