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  • If I Owned the Twins


    Steven BUHR

    I’ve been a bit out of touch with Twinsville for a couple of weeks as I’ve had some business travel and other non-Twins-related matters to occupy most of my time.

    I did catch up a bit on my Twins reading in the past day or so, however, and – well – let’s just say I’ve been much more interested in the writing about the Twins than I have been with what’s transpired on the field with the Twins.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel

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    I read the columns by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s baseball writers and columnists recently, in which they were asked to share their ideas concerning what the Twins need to do to “fix” the sorry state of affairs at Target Field.

    Jim Souhan believes manager Ron Gardenhire has to go.

    Patrick Reusse believes the Twins need coaches who relate better to the increasing (and increasingly important) Latino segment of their roster.

    LaVelle E. Neal wants the Twins to do whatever it takes to add an “ace” at the top of their rotation.

    Phil Miller says, as hard as it may be to do so, the answer is patience, as we await the imminent arrival of some outstanding young prospects.

    Their respective articles reflect opinions I think we’ve all heard voiced many times as this fourth consecutive 90-loss season has been completing its death spiral.

    The only near unanimous opinion is, as TwinsDaily’s Nick Nelson penned this week, “The Twins Have a Problem.”

    After doing all that reading, I paused and contemplated what it must be like right now to be Jim Pohlad.

    I honestly believe he’s embarrassed by what his team has become – an irrelevant organization. The Twins are irrelevant among their MLB brethren. They are irrelevant within the Minnesota professional sports scene.

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/PohladRyanStPeter.jpg

    Owner Jim Pohlad, GM Terry Ryan and President Dave St. Peter (photo: SD Buhr)

    Say what you will about the Pohlad family, they did not get to where they are in life by being irrelevant.

    I began to wonder what was going through the Twins’ owner’s mind these days as he prepares for, perhaps, the most difficult offseason since the passing of his father, Carl. Maybe Jim is asking himself, “WWCD?” What Would Carl Do?

    Naturally, that led me to ponder what I would do if I were in Pohlad’s shoes. What steps would I take to make sure I never, ever, felt like this going in to an offseason again.

    One awful season was an unpleasant aberration. Two was uncomfortable. Three was painful. Four is… I don’t even know, but you wouldn’t want to be around me much if I owned a team with the record of abject failure that the Twins have had so far this decade.

    I thought all four of the Strib’s writers had good thoughts. I also believe there isn’t a single one of those ideas that would satisfy me if I owned the Twins.

    If the four Strib guys worked for me and came to my office with those ideas, here’s what I’d say:

    I think you’ve all made valid points. But here’s my problem.

    Patience, Phil? I’ve been patient for three years. Don’t talk to me about prospects. Until they prove themselves at Target Field, those guys are nothing but business assets. They represent fluxuating inventory with short shelf lives. You’re not asking me to be patient, you’re asking me to be comatose.

    You want me to buy (in money or prospects) an ‘ace,’ LaVelle. Great idea. I’ve been telling my General Manager to feel free to spend more money on whatever he thinks will improve this team. But we can’t force players to sign with us and pretty much every long term, big money, contract for an ‘ace’ that has been signed has turned out to be a bad contract for the team. And I may not be in love with prospects, but I’m not going to give them away in return for an aging pitcher who my stat buddies tell me has seen his best days behind him. If my GM can find an ‘ace’ available on the market who is willing to come to our town or one with enough tread on the tire left to be counted on for a few years of ace-hood that’s available for any trade even close to reasonable, we’ll go get him.

    Jim, I really don’t think any manager in history could have won half his games the past four years with the collection of has-beens, wanna-bes and never-weres wearing a Twins uniform, so if you really believe firing Ron Gardenhire is going to fix things, you know a lot less about baseball than most baseball fans. And that’s a tough bar to get under.

    Pat, same for you. I think it makes a lot of sense to have more of a Latin-American presence in the clubhouse. But do you think having a dozen Latino coaches would make this team a winner? I don’t. By the way, between the four of you guys, there must be about a zillion years of covering baseball between you, right? How’s your Spanish? I think every coach in our organization should learn Spanish, but I also think every media member who covers baseball should, too, and until you do, you’ve got very little room to criticize.

    The problem is that none of your ideas will fix things. Not if that’s all we do.

    Our fans aren’t stupid enough to believe that any one player, no matter how good he is, will turn this team in to a contender. Not if he’s a current Tigers ace, LaVelle, and not if he’s a near-certain future Hall of Fame center fielder who hasn’t completed a full game (much less a season) above high-A ball, Phil.

    Many of them want Gardy gone. I understand that. But even the Gardy haters don’t really believe replacing him will turn a 90-loss team in to a 90-win team. Replacing even an unpopular manager won’t put butts back in the seats and replacing his staff with five guys from Venezuela won’t, either.

    So, no, we’re not going to do a single one of these things.

    We’re going to do all of them.

    And more.

    That's when I would thank that Strib guys for their time, give them some drink tickets and send them to Hrbeks for a couple of refreshments while I talk to my President and General Manager.

    With Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan in my offices, here's what I lay out for them.

    Gentlemen, the good news for you is that neither of you are fired. Yet.

    But I’m tired of losing. I’m tired of losing games and I’m tired of losing fans. And you two may think I don’t know crap about baseball, but I suspect that just maybe losing games and losing fans might be related.

    Terry, I tried to tell you a year ago that I was tired of people telling me I’m cheap and won’t spend money for top talent. Some bozo on the internet even made up a parable about it. I want you to go read it and then, Terry, use the damn ladder!

    I’ve got a list of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball, ranked by some goofy thing called WAR. By the date season tickets have to be renewed, one of those guys is going to be working for me, Terry – or you won’t be. Do we understand one another?

    Speaking of people working for me, you’re going to go tell Ron Gardenhire that he doesn’t. At least not as my manager.

    Gardy’s a helluva guy and he’s had some good days as our manager. We’ll give him a nice watch, but I don’t believe he’s the guy to lead this team for the next 10 years and neither do our fans. Who you hire is your business. I’m just telling you who you’re going to fire.

    I take that back, I am going to tell you a little bit about who you’re going to hire.

    When spring training opens, I want at least two Latino members on the bench staff.

    I mean it, Terry. And I’m not talking about a couple guys who took Spanish class in junior high. I’m going to send Tony Oliva to talk to whoever you hire and they’d better be able to keep up with him in a conversation.

    Every company in every industry in this country has been getting on the diversity bandwagon for years. Everyone figured out long ago that having management that can communicate in Spanish is critical to attracting and retaining top Spanish speaking employees. I don’t know why you haven’t figured this out on your own yet, but now I’m telling you.

    One more thing, Terry.

    If they’re healthy, Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will open 2015 with the Twins. How do I know? I heard all about it in the giant advertising campaign that St. Peter and the marketing folks are putting together the moment he walks out of this meeting. Right Dave?

    That ad is going to run on the local affiliate carrying the Super Bowl. I want everyone in town talking about the Twins the next day and I want them buying tickets. Lots of tickets.

    Dave, I keep reading about how attendance is going to drop next year. I’m telling you that it won’t. If it does, the attendance in your office will drop by one.

    Our season ticket holders have been paying Major League prices for minor league performance for four years. I don’t care how far you have to slash prices, you put butts in the seats.

    Next summer, people may call us crazy for what we’ve done. They may say we’ve lost our minds. But if they’re still saying the Twins are irrelevant, you two will not be calling me your boss.

    Give my love to your families.

    And then I think I'd take a very long cruise around the world on a very large boat and look forward to seeing what my team looked like when I got back.

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    Bats like Sano and Vargas don't come around very often, and there is some versatility in the roster to keep both. Mauer can play third or OF, Sano first, Vargas DH. If I were going to deal a bat, it would be Pinto, since there's a two-year logjam at catcher and an even bigger one at DH. Might have to throw in another prospect, though.

     

    IF... IF... Vargas is really that good going forward, can you consider a Sano trade for a young ace you'll have on staff for a while?

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    You aren't alone on liking the idea of Ozzie Guillen because I know a lot of people who feel that way. I'm just not really one of them. There are aspects of his personality and managing philosophy I like a lot, but I just feel like with him, HE ends up being "the story" far too often for my tastes.

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    SD. I think if we had clarity that Sano was a DH and Vargas will always rake here. I would move Sano for cole in a second. But not until we have clarity.

    Unfortunately, that level of clarity is a ways off and in fact may not materialize for years to come. Sometimes, you have to take risks as a GM.

     

    That said, I'm not sure it's a risk I would take either, at this point.

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    Bats like Sano and Vargas don't come around very often, and there is some versatility in the roster to keep both. Mauer can play third or OF, Sano first, Vargas DH. If I were going to deal a bat, it would be Pinto, since there's a two-year logjam at catcher and an even bigger one at DH. Might have to throw in another prospect, though.

     

    I agree with you on all points except the "Mauer can play third or OF" part.

     

    First, when you look at the talented OF prospects that will begin to logjam within the next year or two, I don't believe there will be room for Mauer in the Twins OF. Second, I think people underestimate how hard it is to play a MLB level third base. If being athletic was all it required, I wouldn't have any question that Sano would stick there. He's every bit as athletic as Mauer and then some.

     

    As for dealing Pinto, sure. But he's not going to bring you the return we're talking about here.

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    The Twins have made huge mistakes the past few years by stalling the call up of their young players.  The conservative, step by step approach they have taken made sense when they had a team that won games.  But after several 90+ loss seasons they had the ability to "rush" some of these prospects and see what they could do.

     

    Instead they populated the roster with a bunch of mediocrities that will never be anything more.

     

    Look at the 1982 Twins season.  That should have been the model for the rebuild from the start.  Some prospects fail:  for example the "original" centerfielder of the Twins 80 rebuild was Jim Eisenreich.  When he unfortunately did not work out we just found someone else named Kirby Puckett.  But where would the Twins be if they would have waited another year or two on Eisenrreich, or Lenny Faedo, or several other prospects? That would have delayed Puckett's emergence and the World Series championships of 87 and 91 might never have happened.

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    You aren't alone on liking the idea of Ozzie Guillen because I know a lot of people who feel that way. I'm just not really one of them. There are aspects of his personality and managing philosophy I like a lot, but I just feel like with him, HE ends up being "the story" far too often for my tastes.

    I'm with you on this. I don't have anything against Ozzie. And baseball wise, he was a quality player defensively and offensively. He's shown some nice ability as a manager, and has shown an aggressive approach. My problem is that he's a little too fiery for me. And as you said, often likes to be the story himself. I get the impression a lot of people like him simply because he has an affinity for the Twins.

     

    If the Twins do make the move at manager, I have pretty good feelings about Mauer and Dougie M both. A pair of young guys who both seem to have good baseball minds, appear to have good communication skills, will carry on the Twins Way while bringing a younger and fresher approach, and have first hand knowledge/experience with most of all the young prospects arrived or on their way. Something Kelly and Gardenhire each had with the previous "new waves" that have come and gone. I don't think that should be dismissed.

     

    But I'd like to see a veteran baseball guy to be the new manager's right hand/bench coach. Ozzie could be great for that. But has he mellowed enough now to be content in that role? If not, would Charlie Manuel be willing to come down from the Phillies FO to assume this sort of "mentoring" role? I'd keep Bruno. I'd keep Cuellar. I'd keep Molitor and Steinbach as well. While I have tremendous respect for both Vavra and Ullger, I'd find other roles in the organization for them and bring on a quality Latin coach like say...Julio Franco maybe? He had a long and successful career, played the infield, was a quality hitter, and has a tremendous passion for the game. That would leave one coaching position for, I don't know, maybe Watkins?

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    The top 20 pitchers in WAR: (according to ESPN)

     

    1 Clayton Kershaw 7.64

    2 Corey Kluber 6.87

    3 Chris Sale 6.59

    4 Felix Hernandez 6.37

    5 Cole Hamels 6.33

    6 Johnny Cueto 6.14

    7 Adam Wainwright 6.05

    8 Max Scherzer 5.81

    9 Jake Arrieta 5.3

    10 Dallas Keuchel 5.18

    11 Tanner Roark 5.16

    12 Rick Porcello 4.44

    13 Jordan Zimmermann 4.37

    14 Garrett Richards 4.35

    15 Collin McHugh 4.32

    16 Phil Hughes 4.29

    17 Henderson Alvarez 4.21

    18 Zack Greinke 4.19

    19 Masahiro Tanaka 4.1

    20 Alex Cobb 4.01

    No Lester? Is this list just for this season? Guessing it must be.

     

    In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

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    No Lester? Is this list just for this season? Guessing it must be.

     

    In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

     

    Max turned down 6-144 before the season started (24 a year).  He has been healthy and dominant again.  No reason to think that offer would not still be there, with bidding driving it higher.

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    I just don't see a lot of meaningful changes happening before next season. Changes? Yes, but just not meaningful ones. 

     

    Another thing we need to start doing is selling high on current and minor league players, especially if we aren't buying into the results. I feel like we buy low every now and then and take chances, but rarely do we do a good sell high, even when its an obvious thing to do. I am thinking 'Will from two years ago as an obvious one.

     

    I am not buying Santana's rookie results, think Dozier will drop off next year greatly, KS is not replicating his offensive numbers and is terrible framer too. Package some of these guys with a decent to good prospect for some big moves. Maybe Stewart? I don't think he ever lives up to the original hype, whatever anyone says about the reasons for his low k/9 numbers are.

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    The Twins have made huge mistakes the past few years by stalling the call up of their young players.  The conservative, step by step approach they have taken made sense when they had a team that won games.  But after several 90+ loss seasons they had the ability to "rush" some of these prospects and see what they could do.

     

    Instead they populated the roster with a bunch of mediocrities that will never be anything more.

     

    Look at the 1982 Twins season.  That should have been the model for the rebuild from the start.  Some prospects fail:  for example the "original" centerfielder of the Twins 80 rebuild was Jim Eisenreich.  When he unfortunately did not work out we just found someone else named Kirby Puckett.  But where would the Twins be if they would have waited another year or two on Eisenrreich, or Lenny Faedo, or several other prospects? That would have delayed Puckett's emergence and the World Series championships of 87 and 91 might never have happened.

     

    They rushed Vargas and Santan from AA to the majors. The only thing keeping Sano out the majors this season was TJ surgery and a healthy Buxton very likely would have gotten a cup of coffee.

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    They rushed Vargas and Santana from AA to the majors.

     

    What does it say about the ML roster and staff that the two players they "rushed" outplayed the incumbents? You're making his point. How many more of our MiL prospects could put up better numbers given the opportunity?

     

    My biggest gripe with Gardy is the toleration of bad play. He talks about accountability but keeps putting up with base-running gaffes and boneheaded play that TK wouldn't tolerate. I loved watching the TK era Twins play the game. Gardy's bunch make me cringe.

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    I think that all 3 of the people pictured should go.  Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares, and if he cares he should fire his president and start over with a baseball person who can build a winning culture.

     

    Jerry Bell (who was hired before the '87 season, btw) retired before the 2011 season and St. Peter took over.  I think that this and the Twins' record afterwards are not coincidental but consequential.

     

    The Strib writers can really go for the low hanging fruit, otherwise they will lose "privileges" with the club.

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     Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares,.

     

    The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad.  He does  not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. 

     

    Please sell.

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    The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad.  He does  not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. 

     

    Please sell.

     

    Are you sure he's not competitive? Or that he doesn't have an ego?

     

    The role of an owner is to hire good people, set a solid budget and get out of the way. He does the last, the second isn't an issue at the moment, and his actions this offseason will shed some light on the first.

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    I think that all 3 of the people pictured should go.  Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares, and if he cares he should fire his president and start over with a baseball person who can build a winning culture.

     

    Jerry Bell (who was hired before the '87 season, btw) retired before the 2011 season and St. Peter took over.  I think that this and the Twins' record afterwards are not coincidental but consequential.

     

    The Strib writers can really go for the low hanging fruit, otherwise they will lose "privileges" with the club.

     

    St. Peter has been president since 2002. Some would say as soon as he took over the position the team started a decent run.

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    They rushed Vargas and Santan from AA to the majors. The only thing keeping Sano out the majors this season was TJ surgery and a healthy Buxton very likely would have gotten a cup of coffee.

    I was not aware that Santana and Vargas played o poorly that they showed they did not belong. It is not rushing when they show they belong.

    Edited by old nurse
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    In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

     

    How is nobody discussing Ervin Santana as a possible free agent acquisition? Ryan offered him three years earlier this season, and his changeup is nasty. He could take pressure off Nolasco, so he can get some confidence vs. #3 starters instead of #1s, which Hughes will obviously handle next season. And we have the money. $15 million a year for three years is reasonable. That's a very serviceable top three, and with what looks to be an improving offense (sixth in runs with 4.39 per game), we can afford to be 24th in ERA (that would be an ERA around 4.1) or even 27th (4.29), but not 29th (4.58).

    Edited by GoGonzoJournal
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    Are you sure he's not competitive? Or that he doesn't have an ego?

     

    The role of an owner is to hire good people, set a solid budget and get out of the way. He does the last, the second isn't an issue at the moment, and his actions this offseason will shed some light on the first.

    I don't know him. But from what I can tell. Making a speech or sitting on tv for half an inning tells me he would rather be anywhere else in the world. The payroll tells me he is not going broke trying to field a great team

     

    If you take a step back, it is the self made guys like cuban, jerry jones, and daniel snyder that seek out and buy a team to inflate their ego's and they are extremely competitive. You can tell when they lose they are dying inside. They love being the face of the team.

     

    The pohlads inherited 2 billion dollars and a baseball team. Very different dynamic

    Edited by tobi0040
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    Re: The 1B/DH logjam.

    I disagree with any plan that has Pinto spending his prime years on the bench in a backup role. He's overqualified for that job. It would be wasteful. The Twins need to find a way to turn one of Vargas, Pinto or Mauer into an asset they can actually use. Maybe that means talking to a team like the Dodgers about a contract swap - Mauer for Kemp or Crawford. If Joe wants to catch again (and I have no reason to believe he does), that might be a  way to get him to waive his NTC. I'd also feel out the market for Vargas. He is young enough to dream big about, maybe there's a GM out there who would make a big offer for him.

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    One doesn't have anything to do with the other.

    Being rushed implies they were not ready for the major leagues. Like Hicks. Could you enlighten me on how they were rushed?  Would Berrios be considered rushed to AAA?  Polanco fit the bill in going to AA? You can play at a level or you can't. If you can't play at a level higher than a level you had not played much at then you were rushed. If you can, somebody did right by the player.

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    I just have to say I absolutely love this article. 

    Don't necessarily know that I agree with Sano & Buxton starting right away in 2015, but I just love the rest of it.

     

    You said nothing of Rick Anderson, but I have to believe his departure would be part of it.

     

    It will be interesting to see what the off season brings.

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    Re: The 1B/DH logjam.

    I disagree with any plan that has Pinto spending his prime years on the bench in a backup role. He's overqualified for that job. It would be wasteful. The Twins need to find a way to turn one of Vargas, Pinto or Mauer into an asset they can actually use. Maybe that means talking to a team like the Dodgers about a contract swap - Mauer for Kemp or Crawford. If Joe wants to catch again (and I have no reason to believe he does), that might be a  way to get him to waive his NTC. I'd also feel out the market for Vargas. He is young enough to dream big about, maybe there's a GM out there who would make a big offer for him.

     

    You have a lot of confidence that Pinto, Vargas and Mauer will all be productive next year. And at the same time none of the three will really have that much trade value since Pinto and Vargas have questionable defensive value. What is wrong with depth?

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    You have a lot of confidence that Pinto, Vargas and Mauer will all be productive next year. And at the same time none of the three will really have that much trade value since Pinto and Vargas have questionable defensive value. What is wrong with depth?

     

    Depth and redundancy are different things. In the case of Pinto, my belief is that the Twins have no intention of using him as a catcher and he looks to be the 3rd best hitter out of these three.  Also behind Sano and Arcia if they can't hold down 3B and LF.

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