How Far has Royce Lewis' Stock Dropped?

I think they are right and MLB needs to figure out how to negotiate or Lewis will have another lost or limited year and that is a lot to make up for.  I question his ranking with the Twins - as pointed out in the article his fielding has been questioned, his hitting in the minors was not what we expected.  No baseball, no tweaks, adjustments, coaching.  I am fine seeing him still ranked as one of our top ten prospects, maybe even top five, but not the top anymore and with the new influx of draft choices it is reasonable that the national rankings drop his ratings.  

If, as Nick suggests, he comes back and makes the ratings look silly no one will be upset and a lot of us will be delighted.

There is a lot of things that go into those rankings.  Also, they mean nothing as to how the player will actually be when they arrive.  One of the main reason for the drop is not that he is not expected to still be good at the MLB level, but that he is now older and younger guys have come in to move ahead of him.  Anyone ahead of him does not mean they will now be better than him at the top level.  

I am not concerned about his drop in rankings, I am only concerned if he can stay healthy and get to the MLB level and produce. 

10 minutes ago, Trov said:

There is a lot of things that go into those rankings.  Also, they mean nothing as to how the player will actually be when they arrive.  One of the main reason for the drop is not that he is not expected to still be good at the MLB level, but that he is now older and younger guys have come in to move ahead of him.  Anyone ahead of him does not mean they will now be better than him at the top level.  

I am not concerned about his drop in rankings, I am only concerned if he can stay healthy and get to the MLB level and produce. 

I am concerned with that leg kick. I know the Twins tried to get him to cut it down with poor results. If he can make it work - great. However, I have doubts.

Well, if he had gone to college, then ALL of his past efforts would've been in that arena. Basically the same age as Austin Martin, and they both would probably be at the same level of play if Royce hadn't lost the last two years.

That being said, if Lewis IS the shortstop of the future still, he will probably start at AA just to work on batting adjustments, while Palacios and Martin are the shortstop options at St. Paul. with Martin MAYBE getting refs in a crowded outfield situation there. Of course, if Miranda is in St. Paul, that complicates things even more on how plays what positions.

Because Royce cannot spend all season at AA Wichita. He can't spend part of all of 2023 at St. Paul. That's when you start talking about fallen stock. But if he is to play at AAA, he needs a position to play.

The Twins HAVE to be in a rebuild mode, I'm sorry. They will have to find time in the majors for Martin, Miranda, Lewis (not to mention Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino). 

I think it shouldn't be viewed as two lost year. Rather two years spent differently. One of the biggest issues was his swing, instead of meaningless minor league games he got an entire season of coaching and training by the staff to sort it out without distractions. The ACL hurt, but that doesn't mean he didn't chat with Simmons about how he preps, maybe he learned Spanish to help communicate, and there is VR to help with pitch recognition out of the hand.

What I am trying to say is, the kid didn't spend the last two years playing X Box, he had the opportunity to train in ways other players simply don't have the time for and that can make him a long term impact player.

Good luck Royce

I think the drop is reasonable. He still has a lot of potential, but there are a lot of competitive prospects out there and even a small change in expectations should be enough for him to get leapfrogged in the rankings by 75+ guys. Royce's outlook is a little bit worse after the last two years. I have a lot of faith that he can still be a very good baseball player, but I don't blame any prospect ranking for deciding that a whole lot of other prospects look closer to being a sure thing right now.

I think the evaluators are correct.  Even I don't know what to expect anymore.  He needs to show everyone where he is at before he can be properly ranked.  I still am a big believer. I have my concerns about his swing but he has had so little development time or time to adjust it all feels premature to judge.  I think it is fine they let him drop and like Nick said they can wipe the egg off their faces after he proves them all wrong.

I myself was slightly down on Lewis after ALC tear. But then I remember his drive, athleticism, optimism and baseball saavy; so I say they are definitely too harsh. IMO he'll bounce back and prove them wrong by playing in the MLB before they have a chance to correct their misevaluation.

I like to think of it as, what would you give up for Royce Lewis if he was on a different team. I know what I would have given for him as dropped quite a bit the last few years.

Would you give up Garver for him now if say Lewis was a Marlin? Would you give up Ryan or any of the other top prospects? I don't if I know if I would consider him a headliner anymore in a deal?

He has a lot prove this year IMO if he doesn't want to go the way Gordon went.

Prospect rankings are nothing but click bait and discussion fodder for those of us without better hobbies (yes, I'm the first on one that list ).  

He'll be fine... until and unless he isn't.

I have no issue with his prospect "ranking" dropping because it won't make a bit of difference to him or the Twins. Especially when he makes it.

But to put everything in perspective, I believe he played most of 2019 with an injury. I want to say an ankle but can't recall completely. The Twins still thought enough of him to promote him just after mid season. And while he never hit well, he was healthy and ready to go in the AFL where he was the MVP, flashing his potential.

I don't know if anyone really knows what he looked like in 2020 over in St Paul but I have yet to hear anything negative. So he was still working and scrimaging with coaches and teammates instead of playing Xbox, as someone referenced. The bad knee before 2021 hurts and slows his development down. But despite no milb season in 2020, he still put in the work. 

I don't know when he'll be ready, but I fly expect that he WILL make it. And it could be as early as 2023, with a chance of a late 2022 debut. I could care less about anyone's public ranking of him.

4 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Well, if he had gone to college, then ALL of his past efforts would've been in that arena. Basically the same age as Austin Martin, and they both would probably be at the same level of play if Royce hadn't lost the last two years.

 

That being said, if Lewis IS the shortstop of the future still, he will probably start at AA just to work on batting adjustments, while Palacios and Martin are the shortstop options at St. Paul. with Martin MAYBE getting refs in a crowded outfield situation there. Of course, if Miranda is in St. Paul, that complicates things even more on how plays what positions.

 

Because Royce cannot spend all season at AA Wichita. He can't spend part of all of 2023 at St. Paul. That's when you start talking about fallen stock. But if he is to play at AAA, he needs a position to play.

 

The Twins HAVE to be in a rebuild mode, I'm sorry. They will have to find time in the majors for Martin, Miranda, Lewis (not to mention Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino). 

 

 

100% agree. The post last week about Buster’s player rankings should have confirmed to us all that we are not one or two players away. The FO’s approach to the pitching staff confirms that the FO understands that. 
 

Therefore, one of the keys this year is to develop those six position players with instruction and innings. I hope the FO and the coaching staff is up to the job. Ideally most of those six (and/or Wallner, Sabato, and Palacio too) comprise the core of a solid multi year window starting in ‘23 alongside Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, and a combo of Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt. 
 

Lewis may or may not be our SS of the future. But if our outfield for 3-4 years starting in ‘23 ended up being Martin, Buxton and Lewis with Larnach, Celestino and/or Wallner as the reserves, we could be very happy. 
 

I hope we win every game this year, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how this group of prospects develop. 

Prospect ratings mean nothing, in the end. Just something for people who think they know more than others to do. And so far Lewis doesn't deserve notice, but he has plenty of time to change that. It is disappointing progress so far, for whatever reasons.

The track record of prospect lists has improved, but it is not a foolproof science. 

56 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

100% agree. The post last week about Buster’s player rankings should have confirmed to us all that we are not one or two players away. The FO’s approach to the pitching staff confirms that the FO understands that. 
 

Therefore, one of the keys this year is to develop those six position players with instruction and innings. I hope the FO and the coaching staff is up to the job. Ideally most of those six (and/or Wallner, Sabato, and Palacio too) comprise the core of a solid multi year window starting in ‘23 alongside Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, and a combo of Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt. 
 

Lewis may or may not be our SS of the future. But if our outfield for 3-4 years starting in ‘23 ended up being Martin, Buxton and Lewis with Larnach, Celestino and/or Wallner as the reserves, we could be very happy. 
 

I hope we win every game this year, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how this group of prospects develop. 

What is the proof of Buster Onley's self proclaimed greatness other than a paycheck for scribbles or babbles?  It is no better than the proclaimed greatness of a prospect list

37 minutes ago, Prince William said:

The track record of prospect lists has improved, but it is not a foolproof science. 

What is the proof of Buster Onley's self proclaimed greatness other than a paycheck for scribbles or babbles?  It is no better than the proclaimed greatness of a prospect list

Not to many, including myself, would disagree with your sentiments toward Olney. He doesn’t know. So I’m with you on that 100%. However, as I recall, the post was about player rankings. And, based on last year’s performances, it’s hard to argue our beloved Twins have a lot, if any, players among the top ten at their positions throughout the league (although when BB is playing I think he certainly qualifies).   This team as currently composed and based on recent levels of play would not be considered among the teams expected to vie for a championship. I wish I were wrong and one never knows - we have to play the games. I’m actually quite bullish on how strongly this team can compete this season. But don’t take my word on this characterization. Look at the actions of the FO. If the FO truly thought we had the positional player strength to be considered near the top of the contenders, they probably would have been more active earlier in the FA market, particularly with the pitching staff. 
 

We will be back among the contenders hopefully very soon and for a sustainable period of time as well. That goal is what the actions of the FO and ownership are now all about: deep development depth in the field and on the mound, good young controllable (i.e. inexpensive) players, and more aggressive FA activity (see Donaldson) when the window is opening. 

22 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Not to many, including myself, would disagree with your sentiments toward Olney. He doesn’t know. So I’m with you on that 100%. However, as I recall, the post was about player rankings. And, based on last year’s performances, it’s hard to argue our beloved Twins have a lot, if any, players among the top ten at their positions throughout the league (although when BB is playing I think he certainly qualifies).   This team as currently composed and based on recent levels of play would not be considered among the teams expected to vie for a championship. I wish I were wrong and one never knows - we have to play the games. I’m actually quite bullish on how strongly this team can compete this season. But don’t take my word on this characterization. Look at the actions of the FO. If the FO truly thought we had the positional player strength to be considered near the top of the contenders, they probably would have been more active earlier in the FA market, particularly with the pitching staff. 
 

We will be back among the contenders hopefully very soon and for a sustainable period of time as well. That goal is what the actions of the FO and ownership are now all about: deep development depth in the field and on the mound, good young controllable (i.e. inexpensive) players, and more aggressive FA activity (see Donaldson) when the window is opening. 

 

You used Olney as a source that the team is not one or two players away.  Two players could make all the difference in the world for next year's Twins. A healthy Beuhler and Urias would make all the difference in the world for the Twins.  Olney is a fop, yet you use him for stating the Twins do not have any top 10 position players. . You can't have it both ways

Agree that Lewis has had a rough few. years and misfortune. However, his ranking is inconsequential at this point. He has the goods or he doesn't - we'll soon enough know the answer.

I'm less concerned about the national evaluations than I am about our own organizations ability to evaluate talent.

There's a lot of guys they watch for years sometimes since teens... Badoo and Nick Anderson were bad misses. Arraez and Dobnak, on the other hand were fast tracked with success despite few prospect ratings. They seemed to have been right about Hu, and that no contact slugger that went to the Giants as well.

So we'll wait and see I think. I've been critical about the organization over valuing it's high picks in particular. There's no doubt Lewis trade value has plummeted.

Has yet to demonstrate that he can consistently hit even A pitching over a sustained period (that SO/BB ratio in A his last full year is a doozie (yes he did have a good AZ league but that is a SSS). Future MLB superstars do not historically struggle in the low minors for even a season.

Of course some unbiased evaluators of talent are going to find 100 players they are more excited about.

Bottom line is simply that he needs to dominate competition in AA or AAA this year (not just compete) if he is to become a top prospect again....no excuses....no 'developing' .... no 'it's the process' this year.

Yep, this year is just about results... and only results

If he cannot demonstrate clear superiority in the MiLB this year... he may eventually make the MLB but will no longer be a 'top prospect'.

IMHO TD has vastly overrated Royce regularly because of his draft position (perceived 5 tool player who has certainly been missing the hitting tool so maybe not so much) and by all accounts he is a great guy. He would not be in my top 3 Twin prospects currently and maybe not even in the top 5.

I desperately hope I'm wrong... (i certainly was about Buxton signing a wildly team friendly extension!)

All should agree though that THIS is the year the debate will be answered.

13 hours ago, Prince William said:

You used Olney as a source that the team is not one or two players away.  Two players could make all the difference in the world for next year's Twins. A healthy Beuhler and Urias would make all the difference in the world for the Twins.  Olney is a fop, yet you use him for stating the Twins do not have any top 10 position players. . You can't have it both ways

Two players could make all the difference - like I said you need to play the games. But any realistic look up and down the Twins roster, and this is coming from an all-time Twins homer, suggests that a more serious rebuild is needed:

Our best player (BB)can’t stay on the field - but is incredible when he does.
Our second best player (JP) is really, really good.

Our third best player (JD) had a strong second half but his first half, when we really needed it, was simply awful and he is likely a declining, not ascending player. And he is blocking our best prospect. 

Our RF (MK) can Field but can’t hit. Our 1B (Kiriloff) is essentially a rookie coming off an injury.

Our DH (MS) blows hot and cold, but mostly cold. We are solid at catcher, but particularly because of depth, not individual greatness. We really don’t have a regular everyday SS or LF, but I love LA so maybe he can slot in in LF.

Our starting staff, as currently comprised or, should I say envisioned, may be on paper one of the league’s worst.  Our relief corp looks solid after last year’s second half, but our most reliable reliever, and the leader of the pen, is coming off an injury. 
 

So could two players really help this lineup - you betcha.  But there are more than two holes. This is why I think the FO is looking to build a solid young core in the next year or two and then spend on the FA or two who could get us over the hump.

As per Olney, I couldn’t care less about his opinions. I was only referring to the post in which his rankings were utilized to spur discussion about the Twin’s lineup.  
 

I’m optimistic about the Twin’s future if the deep stable of developing talent can continue to improve and I’m willing to use that as my benchmark this season if need be.

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two players could make all the difference - like I said you need to play the games. But any realistic look up and down the Twins roster, and this is coming from an all-time Twins homer, suggests that a more serious rebuild is needed:

Our best player (BB)can’t stay on the field - but is incredible when he does.
Our second best player (JP) is really, really good.

Our third best player (JD) had a strong second half but his first half, when we really needed it, was simply awful and he is likely a declining, not ascending player. And he is blocking our best prospect. 

Our RF (MK) can Field but can’t hit. Our 1B (Kiriloff) is essentially a rookie coming off an injury.

Our DH (MS) blows hot and cold, but mostly cold. We are solid at catcher, but particularly because of depth, not individual greatness. We really don’t have a regular everyday SS or LF, but I love LA so maybe he can slot in in LF.

Our starting staff, as currently comprised or, should I say envisioned, may be on paper one of the league’s worst.  Our relief corp looks solid after last year’s second half, but our most reliable reliever, and the leader of the pen, is coming off an injury. 
 

So could two players really help this lineup - you betcha.  But there are more than two holes. This is why I think the FO is looking to build a solid young core in the next year or two and then spend on the FA or two who could get us over the hump.

As per Olney, I couldn’t care less about his opinions. I was only referring to the post in which his rankings were utilized to spur discussion about the Twin’s lineup.  
 

I’m optimistic about the Twin’s future if the deep stable of developing talent can continue to improve and I’m willing to use that as my benchmark this season if need be.

 

2019 was unexpected. That is the joy of human performance events. Which player is going to show up? Are some players maturing or now past over ripe going to rotten? The position players have not changed all that much. 2 players could be the difference. It could be no difference. If I knew the answer I wouldn't have a question. 

31 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

 

Mod note: keep to subject. Ranking of Royce Lewis

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two players could make all the difference - like I said you need to play the games. But any realistic look up and down the Twins roster, and this is coming from an all-time Twins homer, suggests that a more serious rebuild is needed:

Our best player (BB)can’t stay on the field - but is incredible when he does.
Our second best player (JP) is really, really good.

Our third best player (JD) had a strong second half but his first half, when we really needed it, was simply awful and he is likely a declining, not ascending player. And he is blocking our best prospect. 

Our RF (MK) can Field but can’t hit. Our 1B (Kiriloff) is essentially a rookie coming off an injury.

Our DH (MS) blows hot and cold, but mostly cold. We are solid at catcher, but particularly because of depth, not individual greatness. We really don’t have a regular everyday SS or LF, but I love LA so maybe he can slot in in LF.

Our starting staff, as currently comprised or, should I say envisioned, may be on paper one of the league’s worst.  Our relief corp looks solid after last year’s second half, but our most reliable reliever, and the leader of the pen, is coming off an injury. 
 

So could two players really help this lineup - you betcha.  But there are more than two holes. This is why I think the FO is looking to build a solid young core in the next year or two and then spend on the FA or two who could get us over the hump.

As per Olney, I couldn’t care less about his opinions. I was only referring to the post in which his rankings were utilized to spur discussion about the Twin’s lineup.  
 

I’m optimistic about the Twin’s future if the deep stable of developing talent can continue to improve and I’m willing to use that as my benchmark this season if need be.

 

And the ratings could be so wrong that Lewis could be that  one of two players by the end of the season that make the difference between division glory and division gory

Hmmm. Justin Mason’s 2022 Shortstop Ranks: 1/21/22 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball (fangraphs.com)

Yes Lewis has a low ranking here, This is the ranking as compared to the major league shortstops.

Polanco has a high ranking.