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  • How Does the Twins Outfield Get Sorted?


    Ted Schwerzler

    At this point in the offseason, the Minnesota Twins may employ as many outfielders as possible. While there are three positions on the grass, nearly 25% of the 40-man roster is dedicated solely to players listed as outfielders. With so many, changes are coming.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    For the past year or so, the Twins' outfield has remained in flux behind the starters. Last year left field was a question mark more often than it wasn’t, and Byron Buxton’s latest injury left him out of centerfield more often than not. Plenty of guys were given chances, and while some are now gone (thanks for the memories, Tim Beckham), the group still has too many mouths to feed.

    I’d expect the Opening Day roster to have five outfielders, but a few have positional flexibility. Looking at the nine names currently categorized by the 40-man roster, here is a probable path for them in 2023.

    Byron Buxton
    This one should be straightforward. If he’s healthy, he plays. Last season the Twins got nearly 100 games out of Buxton despite him battling a significant knee injury early on. Many of his injuries in the past have been fluky, but let’s dream of a world where Nick Paparesta and a new training staff focus on giving us what we’ve all been waiting for. He’s among the best in the game, and Rocco Baldelli’s team is much better when he takes the field.

    Gilberto Celestino
    Right now, I’m not sure what to think about Celestino. He has been called on in trade discussions and is a guy I’d prefer not to see the front office move. Last year was a good year of development, and still young; there is plenty of room for him to grow. As a right-handed bat, he has that going for him, and defensively he’s an ideal backup option behind Buxton.

    Joey Gallo
    Signed to a one-year deal, there is no doubt that Gallo is making the 26-man roster. He’ll play plenty of corner outfield and can play center as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota have him ready at first base, and despite the bat being his calling card, his athleticism and glove are equally as impressive.

    Nick Gordon
    Listed as an outfielder by the Twins roster designation, Gordon filled into a utility role well last year. The bat played more, and although he’s limited on the infield, he played outfield well. Gordon looked the part of a centerfielder at times, and more reps could make that even more fluid. He should be a relative lock for the Opening Day roster and will again play all over the field.

    Max Kepler
    If there is a guy to bet on being traded this offseason, Kepler is it. He bats left-handed as too many of his counterparts do, and Gallo wasn’t signed to be a redundant form of what the German brings to the table. There has been plenty of interest in the strong defensive right fielder, and it should be a matter of when and not if he goes.

    Alex Kirilloff
    The Twins need this to be the year that Kirilloff’s wrist is right. After undergoing a more intense procedure to shave down his bone, there aren't many other surgical options. All reports thus far have been positive, and Kirilloff is a talent Minnesota has been waiting on at the big-league level for some time. He should factor in most as a left fielder, but he can also potentially be a star at first base. He’ll get time at both spots this year, and the only thing holding him back has been health.

    Trevor Larnach
    We started seeing what a rolling Larnach looked like at points last season, but the core muscle injury killed the momentum. He’s a power bat with a substantial amount of plate discipline, and he, too, should be expected to contribute from left field. There is no reason he can’t be a middle-of-the-order bat, and we saw the arm play plenty when opposing runners tried to test him a season ago. Like Kirilloff, health is all Minnesota needs here.

    Matt Wallner
    Making his debut after such a solid 2022 in the minors, Wallner looked the part in a very small major league sample size. His 105 OPS+ was above league average; he made substantial strides last year when controlling the zone and taking walks. There is probably no room for him on Opening Day, but Wallner didn’t slow down last year at Triple-A St. Paul and could quickly force Minnesota’s hand if he comes out of the gates hot.

    The Twins have more than a few decisions to make on the grass this season, and right now, things are a bit lefty-heavy. We’ll see how this turns out before the club shows up in Fort Myers.

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      On 1/14/2023 at 6:51 PM, Reptevia said:

    Let’s be clear:  Buxton played 57 games in CF. That’s only about a 1/3, and the confetti hasn’t hit the floor yet. Is that seriously enough for a “starter”?

    Celestino simply wasn’t a MLB hitter last year. 
    Gallo’s calling card is his bat???  A career .199 hitter???  Ok…

    Gordon-Agreed. 
    Kepler- It’s been a good ride. Good luck wherever you get traded to. 
    Kiriloff-  IF he can play. IF his wrist holds up, he should be on roster. 
    Larnach- IF he can stay healthy and learn to hit a curve ball…he could be a 5th OF. It makes more sense to send him to St Paul and find an RH upgrade (starter) who can play CF 2/3 of the games on the trade market. 

     

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    So we have Gordon - Buxton - Gallo & who else? Larnach has to be in OF mix as well as DH. Assumption of health.

    I see Kirilof at DH - 1B - 20 games of OF. Assumption of health.

    Kepler is gone as you state.

    Walner in St. Paul to get everyday at bats - be prepared to take Gallo’s spot at some point.

    We need a major league hitter - defender from right side of the plate. Needed particularly with Gallo’s potential weak BA.

    Who is it?? Can we assume we have a better player on the 40 man or 60 man better than Celestino? Certainly not pushing for Celestino but don’t know the answer.

    Duvall, formerly of Reds/Braves? Anyone else now that McCutchen is gone?

    Anyone in organization potentially ready this spring? RH bat?

    Can Farmer play RF?…….can’t imagine it 

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    There was a short mention of AK in yesterday’s STrib.  Or was it this morning?

    Although he is limited in the quantity of swings, he said it felt so good taking a full swing with no pain.

     

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      On 1/14/2023 at 7:06 PM, tony&rodney said:

    Buxton started 51 games last year, so Celestino stays, although it would be best for him to play every day  for the St. Paul Saints until he is needs to be called up.

    Gallo and Buxton are certainties and Kirilloff has almost no value until he can show his game. I also believe he stays at first base until or unless needed elsewhere, which hopefully doesn't happen. Gordon has so much utility and improved quite a bit last year so I think he stays unless another teams puts an inordinate high value on him.

    That leaves Kepler and Larnach. The Twins can just roll with what they have in fear of the bad luck of last year or these two get traded.

    Wallner will start in St. Paul unless he too is overvalued by another team. I believe in Wallner and see a physical guy who is just growing into his body with enormous potential to hit for average and power while drawing walks. The K's are a concern, but I think he can only get better in the field.

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    Walner needs AB’s everyday in St. Paul

    1)Gallo got signed to play - can’t expect him to play much against Lefties. He’s in RF 90 games & in CF 30 games.

    2)Buxton has to start 80 games in CF along with 45 games as DH.

    3) Gordon…….28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s & .272 BA last year. He’s in the line-up. With Farmer on club, & CC playing everyday SS, Farmer is the utility infielder. Gordon is an outfielder (period) outside of an emergency! Gordon starts 50 games in CF and 90 games in LF.

    4) With assumed health, Larnach is 4th OF. LF when Gordon is in CF or resting. Gets Larnach 60 games in LF & another 50 games as DH.

    5) Unknown. RH batting OF. Plays right when Gallo sits against lefty starters & when Gallo plays CF. Probably 60-70 games in RF & maybe a handful in LF.

    Kepler is gone via trade & hopefully Celestino & Pagan are gone too.

    Can we cover #5’s games with Farmer & Kirilof in OF.

    Only FA I like is Adam Duvall - former Red/Brave…….might work out?

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    Do we really have a problem here?  Are any of these guys, outside of Buxton when healthy (which isn’t enough), really that good?  We’re likely not seeing the same Alex K. we saw before the wrist.  Gallo looked useless at the plate last year.  Gordon is nothing to write home about as a starter.  Who knows what will happen with Larnach, last year was weird and he’s seen his struggles.  Kepler hasn’t hit since 2019.

    The FO and management maybe have some tough decisions.  But, it’s not because of a glut of talent.  It’s more avoiding the land mine of cutting the wrong one loose.

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      On 1/14/2023 at 6:37 PM, ashbury said:

    My one worry is that we have only 2 catchers on the 40-man.

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    No problem here. Twins signed a few catchers who can go and up and down between St. Paul and the Twins when they need them. Just use the Paddack roster spot when they put him on long-term IL. Canterino could be used the same way but the Twins don't like giving service time this way.

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      On 1/14/2023 at 8:16 PM, Fred said:

    They're not getting rid of Kepler because he is due $10 million. They are spending slightly more on Gallo for an upgrade of nearly 50 points of career OPS, and an increase in power (Kepler 1 HR every 22 ABs, Gallo 1 HR every 13 ABs). Both are nearly equal defensively, with Gallo having 2 Gold Gloves, and Kepler being a finalist a couple of times. They don't need 2 guys like that on the roster, hence they trade Kepler.

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    By the end of the year it's quite likely that they indeed do NEED 2 guys like that.  Especially with the propensity of other to not stay on the field.  I won't even mention how happy Yankee fans were to see Gallo leave town in the midst of a playoff run, OR his .199 career batting average.

     

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      On 1/14/2023 at 6:42 PM, High heat said:

    The 2 catchers doesn’t matter because as soon as the season starts Lewis and Paddock go on the 60 day DL and we have 2 open 40 man spots. 
    Tony Walters is a very solid 3rd catcher on a minor league deal!

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    Actually 3 open spots as Canterino will go on the 60 day

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    Farmer is catcher #3. He won't get any reps there unless Jeffers or Vazquez get hurt and even then it will be very few. As for the outfield, you need twice as many when most of them are part-timers, hurt or can't hit. I long for the days when we had a Gladden, Puckett and Brunansky that played every day instead of the cobbled up crap we see today. It is depressing to have a FO that signs a Gallo, who is a worse hitter than Kepler to apparently replace Kepler who also can't hit. Hope and a Prayer eventually for maybe an outfield of Martin, Lewis and Rodriguez and a Manager that will let them play everyday........... if they can stay healthy.

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      On 1/14/2023 at 5:42 PM, AlGoreRythm said:

    I agree with everything you've got here other than Larnach's defense.

    Larnach and Gallo seem to have very similar defensive profiles. They're massive guys whose size almost masks their athleticism. They're both able to make plays up against the wall that smaller defenders can't get to without climbing it. The defense doesn't look flashy because they appear to be big plodding guys, but their size often make plays look more routine than they'd be for other players because of their height and reach.

    From what I saw of a healthy Larnach the past 2 seasons give me confidence that with more reps at Target Field, he'll provide Kepler level defense, with a better plate approach.

    Totally agree with the Celestino analysis and the plan for Lewis on his return.

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    Maybe not Kepler defense, but I agree he is better defensive OF than he gets credit for.

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      On 1/14/2023 at 7:29 PM, dxpavelka said:

    Two guys who can't stay on the field.  PLUS Buxton.  Celestino's a 4th OF.  Wallner has 65 career plate appearances.  Gordon's an infielder.  Somebody's gotta DH.  Apparently, we've gotta trade Kepler cuz he bats left handed.  I always love how our fan base want's to get rid of guys when they get to the point where they're making $10 Million (not a huge amount in this day and age) and then bitch because we don't spend money. 

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    I don't see Kepler being bashed because of payroll, its because of performance, mainly hitting!

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    It really is about health with Kirilloff and Larnach. Both have been injured more than not for the last year and a half. There is opportunity at DH and first base for at bats for corner outfielders. I do agree that Larnach was and could be more than capable in either right or left field. A healthy Buxton could be spelled occasionally by Gordon without the need to carry Celestino on the active roster. 

    Specifically regarding a Kepler trade--he is expendable because he is replaceable. Gallo is probably his (near) equal defensively and a healthy Kirilloff or Larnach could be expected to equal his offensive contribution of his last two years. 

     

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    Have heard lots of people saying we need a RH corner OF bat.  Now that Correa is signed Farmer can handle some time out there in addition being an emergency catcher.  We also can bring up Garlic if needed.  Lastly, Lewis can be our RH OF guy once he comes up.  Let’s not be so ready to jettison our OF talent just yet.

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    Am I remembering correctly that Kepler has played some 1st base? With Kirilloff probably testing his wrist in St Paul and Miranda moving to 3rd it leaves Arraez who has his own shortcomings as a first baseman and is one of our more "delicate" players as well leaving him not suitable for everyday play in the field. If correct, I could make a case for holding on to Kepler.

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    Sorting out the OF is pretty easy. 

    A fair open competition for playing time. Let the players decide with actual performance on the field. 

    Don't double down on Gallo (or Kepler) if they are the same player they have been the last two years.

    They can't be allowed to block potentially better play by getting their name in the lineup everyday despite consistent bad play. 

    The nightmare scenario isn't paying Gallo 11M.

    The nightmare scenario is paying Gallo 11M to play poorly and not letting someone else have the job. 

    Signing Logan Morrison wasn't the mistake. Those types of mistakes happen.

    Playing Logan Morrison every day when he wasn't good. was the mistake... not giving anybody else the chance to be better was the mistake.   

     

     

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      On 1/16/2023 at 1:04 PM, Karbo said:

    I agree about Gallo. Can't understand that deal at all.

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    I don't have an issue with signing Gallo but just don't see him as an upgrade over Kepler or even vintage Sano for that matter.  Think many are reading way too much into Sano's dismal performance in an extremely small sample size last year and the somebody will sign him and end up with a hell of a bargain.  Maybe not David Ortiz like but maybe Ortiz lite.

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