Has Jorge Lopez Been a Disappointment?

Tyler Mahle has been a disappointment...

He’s a really strange case.  His numbers this year are very good, but it’s an extreme outlier from the rest of his career and he’s somehow still blown 20% of his save opportunities with a sub 2 ERA.

I just don’t think he’s that good.  I think he’s due to regress hard, and we’re seeing the beginning of that.

Obviously the O’s felt the same.  Savvy move on their part to dump him at that peak.  

Here are Lopez's career stats before this year:

In 2019 his ERA was 6.33
In 2020 his ERA was 6.34
In 2021 his ERA was 6.07 

I guess I'm confused, did people think we traded for Peak 2002 Eric Gagne or something? Did fans think Lopez was going to be the slam-the-door-closer we've been searching for since Joe Nathan left? If so, then yeah he's a disappointment. 

But guys - we should have never expected him to be good in the first place. The Twins trade deadline moves weren't fixes, they were band aids. These were middle-of-the-road guys and the results are luke warm as expected. 

Nah. I expected him to have moments of dominance but also to struggle. He is exactly what I figured he would be. 

Yes I am disappointed and I questioned the trade at the time.  His blown saves have been more than a bad outing.  Like Pagan he has looked terrible in his meltdowns - like Chicago.  I am disappointed because the FO sold him as a savior and Rocco has him penciled in as the closer, although the last game in the series the radio guys thought he was coming in and then were surprised when Rocco had second thoughts and brought in Thielbar. 

If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control.

I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.

29 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control.

I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.

 

Well, at least he's not on the IL... yet. That's sort of a "win".

O's fans were initially upset..but then realized the 'closer" in waiting was Bautista...and he has been lights out awesome. So far I think he has been a disappointment mostly because of the high expectations placed on him. He was a failed starter who simply hit a hot streak as a reliever during the surprise re-awakening of the Orioles. He just isn't that good. Might turn out to be eventually but certainly not the bullpen 'savior'.. his last outing was really bad..including the ill timed deflection that prevented a game saving DP. Twins really don't have a 'closer' but the weak division remains up for grabs

People talking about his career numbers prior to this year are ignoring the fact that this is his first year in the bullpen. He has the stuff to break dominant out of the pen and was for the majority of this year. Hopefully he can get back on track with us. 

I'll bet he wishes he was still in Baltimore   ....

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes I am disappointed and I questioned the trade at the time.  His blown saves have been more than a bad outing.  Like Pagan he has looked terrible in his meltdowns - like Chicago.  I am disappointed because the FO sold him as a savior and Rocco has him penciled in as the closer, although the last game in the series the radio guys thought he was coming in and then were surprised when Rocco had second thoughts and brought in Thielbar. 

Since it wasn't a save situation  , Rocco made an in game decision  for the first time that I have noticed and brought in theilbar  ...

saving Lopez to pitch against the yankees  ... 

Lopez appears to have good stuff. But the simple answer is to move him to the set up man for Duran. It takes precure off and lights a fire under his ass. It's obvious who the better pitcher is.

I heard Correa encouraged the Twins to trade for Lopez. That's another notch against Correa for now. But Lopez is better than almost all of the other Twins relievers so in the end, it's good to have him. 

21 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Since it wasn't a save situation  , Rocco made an in game decision  for the first time that I have noticed and brought in theilbar  ...

saving Lopez to pitch against the yankees  ... 

 

Not sure either choice was the right one.  Lopez looks like someone the Yankees know how to handle and Thielbar has not been in the closer situation before - but now I hope he is ready for the Yankees.

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control.

I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.

 

"Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings."

And if the worm had a .44, the bird wouldn't mess with him.      

If "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts....................:)      

Lopez since joining the Twins:

3.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 18.8% K (poor), 8.3% BB (acceptable), 1.37 WHIP (poor), .364 BABIP (very unlucky). He's pitched in 12 games and allowed runs in 3 of them, blowing 2 saves. 75% of the time, Lopez puts up a 0 so far. It's not great, for sure, and fans were expecting great, but it's a very small sample size. Lopez has 50% of his season with the Twins left, still.

Duran has pitched in 50 games and allowed runs in 7 of them. 86% of the time, Duran puts up a 0 so far, and that's fairly on track for an elite closer. No runs allowed about 85% of the time.

 

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

"Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings."

And if the worm had a .44, the bird wouldn't mess with him.      

If "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts....................:)      

My point was that in such a small sample the contact that results in singles or not can really impact results and hence I don’t want to judge my disappointment on the deal based this sample for a reliever. I think your point is I should be disappointed in the deal based on results regardless of circumstances or sample. 

20 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My point was that in such a small sample the contact that results in singles or not can really impact results and hence I don’t want to judge my disappointment on the deal based this sample for a reliever. I think your point is I should be disappointed in the deal based on results regardless of circumstances or sample. 

I'm sorry, I think you misread my point entirely.  I was being somewhat tongue in cheek about the whole thing, but my overall point was we can "if" on virtually every game, if not every at bat.  "If" he had thrown a better pitch, the guy might have swung and missed, for example.  I am not judging the trade on any of this, I am only saying that we can "if" ourselves into insanity "if" we keep going down that road.    

Personally, I think the trade may be good in the long run, seeing we have him for 2 more years.  "If" he turns out to be another Pagan, well then..............  But until we know, I am hoping he turns out to be the guy we thought he would be.  

We still have a month to see if he is the closer we needed for thee season.

Yes, Duran should probably be closing. He ahs earned it.

I';m surprised, thoiugh, that Baldelli seems to have little faith in Pagan, Megill and hasn't used newcomer Davis (I would've pitched him to begin the 9th on Sunday). The only joy is that these three are on the bubble if the Twins need to find space for Winder, Ober and...maybe, Dobnak. 

Also, at this point, I would've rather taken a flyer on Sisk than sign Austin.

Probably too soon to tell if it was a good or bad deal. I think we should give him more time. We gave Pagan and Duffey too much time. I think Lopez will be ok but sometimes he also hinges in pitch selection. Matt Wisler had similar prior career numbers with Seattle until Wes Johnson changed the usage to feature his slider on a more frequent basis and the results were similar to Lopez before the Twins. 
 

I think pitch selection and focus on what was successful in Baltimore will likely help. 

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez since joining the Twins:

3.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 18.8% K (poor), 8.3% BB (acceptable), 1.37 WHIP (poor), .364 BABIP (very unlucky). He's pitched in 12 games and allowed runs in 3 of them, blowing 2 saves. 75% of the time, Lopez puts up a 0 so far. It's not great, for sure, and fans were expecting great, but it's a very small sample size. Lopez has 50% of his season with the Twins left, still.

Duran has pitched in 50 games and allowed runs in 7 of them. 86% of the time, Duran puts up a 0 so far, and that's fairly on track for an elite closer. No runs allowed about 85% of the time.

 

It's a high BABIP in comparison to his half season in Baltimore as a reliever, it's not a crazy departure from his time as a starter, and I think that's the concern. Is his half season in Baltimore indicative of who he is, or are we seeing a guy drifting back down to Earth?

You're right, the number of runners allowed has been atrocious, and while we can take some solace in his zero percentage, that''ll start to reflect his poor WHIP given enough time. 

Once again this points to the fickle nature of relief pitching. Very few bullpen arms can be relied for multiple years. There are ups and downs. Pretty sure the Twin's FO feels the same way that is why they don't spend money on it. The price we paid for Lopez was relatively cheap so I will take the next 2 years plus what remains of this year gladly. No complaints here. He has helped stabilize the part of the team that needed the most help. Is he perfect? No he is a baseball pitcher just learning the art of closing games in a divisional race. If there is any fault it is that he gets way too amped up in these situations. That has got him in a few hitter's counts with his control and also I think the movement has flattened out a bit on some of his pitches. I am glad the Twin's brought him here and look forward to 2 more years of Jorge Lopez.

On 9/5/2022 at 4:53 AM, bighat said:

Here are Lopez's career stats before this year:

In 2019 his ERA was 6.33
In 2020 his ERA was 6.34
In 2021 his ERA was 6.07 

I guess I'm confused, did people think we traded for Peak 2002 Eric Gagne or something? Did fans think Lopez was going to be the slam-the-door-closer we've been searching for since Joe Nathan left? If so, then yeah he's a disappointment. 

But guys - we should have never expected him to be good in the first place. The Twins trade deadline moves weren't fixes, they were band aids. These were middle-of-the-road guys and the results are luke warm as expected. 

Call me Mr Expectation, but I just hoped he would continue his season and perform as he did in the first 4 months.

I highly doubted it, as I was aware of his 2015 to 2021 horridness, but that was all mostly as a starter. They gave up 4 pitchers (that I bet most can't name without looking it up, and probably even one of them, and I could only remember one, and only one of them had any innings in the Show) for a guy that has a pretty small sample size as a reliever. He would have been in finding employment in Japan or Korea or in the minors if he had not had good luck coming out of the pen. I think Baltimore knew it was smoke and mirrors, and fleeced the desparate Twins, and we will see even worse in the coming years. Maybe we will get lucky. But it is not looking great so far. Goes to show you how ridiculous the All-Star selections can be. 3 months going into the game and he didn't suck finally and was very good in the new role, and all the sudden Lopez (and Martin Perez, ha!) was an All-Star? 

I read that Buxton and Correa wanted him. Hmmmmm. But I am surely on the disappointed list. We needed help, and I welcomed it. Too much paganish like hype, and too often similar results....... but ooooooooo, that stuff..............

The Twins have blown almost as many saves (23) as they have converted (24), the worst save % of all 30 MLB teams. 

This points not only to ineffective personnel but ineffective pitcher management.

Why could that be? Perhaps it has something to do with a guy taking a little while to feel comfortable in a new setting with higher expectations, and/or a number of Twins fans acting with all the entitlement and long-term thinking ability of a 7 year old?