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  • Garver Tipping the Twins Scales


    Ted Schwerzler

    Over the course of the 2018 Major League Baseball season, there have been no two players more mishandled by the Minnesota Twins than Mitch Garver and Jake Cave. Alan Busenitz probably has a case to be included among the duo, but it’s the position players who take the cake for me. With Ryan LaMarre finally being jettisoned, and Cave getting regular run with Byron Buxton out, the stage has completely turned to Garver. Fortunately, he’s beginning to force the Twins hand.

    Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

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    Jason Castro’s 2018 season ended on May 4. From that point on, I found myself campaigning for Garver to get the lion’s share of reps behind the plate. Despite being 27 years-old, it’s not as if Garver has never had real prospect stock. He has been included among the Twins top 30 regularly over the past couple of seasons, and as a ninth-round pick, the previous regime saw some significant promise in the kid from New Mexico.

    Posting a .928 OPS across 88 games with Triple-A Rochester in 2017, Garver found himself in the big leagues for 23 games to end the year. He mustered just a .636 OPS across 52 plate appearances, but for a guy whose bat has always been his calling card, the expectation was that there was more there.

    From the time Castro’s season ended through the month of May, Garver mustered just a .580 OPS. Having operated in a rotational capacity with the Minnesota starter, he was obviously just looking to find his footing. The Twins brought Bobby Wilson into the mix on May 6, and despite being a known commodity who brings nothing to the table at the plate, Garver’s opportunity to develop and take hold of the position was seemingly stunted.

    Fast forward to today, and Garver’s bat has completely arrived. Since June he’s slashing .312/.396/.484 with nine extra-base hits and three home runs. Reflective of his approach on the farm, Garver is a disciplined hitter at the dish, and doesn’t bail pitchers out. He’s able to work counts, draw walks, and capitalize on the pitches he should mash. The good news is that for the last two months, he’s been doing exactly that for Minnesota. The bad news however, is that the amount of playing time is still unacceptable.

    Since June 1st, the Twins have played 48 games, of which Garver has drawn just 27 starts (56%). Bobby Wilson has drawn 24 starts over that same time span, which is one more start than Garver has made behind the plate. For his efforts in the lineup, Wilson is slashing a terrible .181/.244/.236 over that time. Garver’s 1.0 fWAR is 5th best among Twins position players, while Bobby Wilson’s -0.7 fWAR is dead last.

    There must be some reason why the Twins are willingly putting themselves in a negative position 50% of the time, right? Well, behind the plate, obviously defense weighs heavily on the position. Wilson has been worth 3 DRS to Garver’s -7 mark. Bobby’s 1.2 framing runs also ranks 25th in MLB while Garver’s -4.4 mark checks in at 89th among 99 catchers. So, there’s a very clear divide in defensive quality, but the question is how much weight does each side of the game hold?

    It’s more than fair to see the value in players like Martin Maldonado or Yasmani Grandal. Both are among the elite defensive catchers across the entire league. While Grandal is actually a very good, well-rounded player, Maldonado draws his opportunities solely on his defensive prowess. The problem with putting Wilson into that argument is that he’s a black hole at the plate, and while better than Garver behind it, he’s only slightly above league average.

    Last season, the Twins offense found themselves seventh in runs scored across all of baseball. Shrinking it down to just the American League, they were fourth. This season the offense has climbed up to 12th but sat 14th heading into the All-Star break. In the early part of the season that positioning was even worse. Given the slight defensive advantage that Wilson may provide behind the dish, it’s hard not to acknowledge the significant net negative by any semblance of offense from that position in the lineup.

    Evaluating the Twins where they are now, as sellers, it’s time to put forth a development focus of sorts. Over the course of a season in which you’d hope to compete for a postseason berth, it’s fair to be skeptical as to whether Garver can work behind the plate. For now though, it’s become inexcusable to stifle an OPS nearing .900 because of how a guy with 51 career starts at catcher has responded on defense.

    Guys like Willson Contreras and Gary Sanchez are notably poor on defense, but their bat has carried them to new heights. While Garver is not close to the company of either of those players, the same process needs to be explored by Minnesota. Catcher isn’t a position many teams are rich in, and the Twins are no exception. Short of trading for the Marlins' J.T. Realmuto, there isn’t going to be a perfect remedy to the situation any time soon either. It’ll be great to have Castro back next season for defensive purposes, but not pushing Garver to be better defensively while capitalizing on his bat seems like poor planning.

    It’s great to have a guy like Bobby Wilson around to spell whoever the Twins want to start. Right now, Garver needs to be getting at least 75% of the opportunities regardless of whether Molitor or the pitching staff have differing opinions.

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    This is an error on the Twins FO/Management.  Catchers develop over time.  But not on the bench.  Tell me that Mike Piazza was great at framing.  Here is a good interview with Brad Ausmus on the difficulties catchers face.  https://www.npr.org/2011/08/18/139649031/covering-the-plate-a-baseball-catcher-tells-all 

     

    Garver has the tools, he does not have the experience, and in this worthless year it would be good if he was given the opportunity to develop his talent behind the plate. 

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    If Molitor gives Garver a few starts at DH to keep his bat in the line up, Im ok with that. Though he should be in 90 percent of the games right now weather at C or DH. I feel like 60 percent of the time behind the plate is fine if it keeps his legs fresh and gives him time to learn and reflect on C. If Castro was here, Garver wouldnt get this much time anyway. But since Garver is hitting the snot out of the ball, I hope he gets time at DH too. Its not like Grossman or Morrison are keeping him out of the DH spot.

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    Or maybe they were handled perfectly, given that they are having success now instead of being called up and flailing like so many others.

     

    I mentioned this in my post on Garver the other day. I don't think there is much question that a healthy Castro would have been the primary catcher if healthy. Garver could "break in" as the backup and DH some and learn on the job. And perhaps Molitor has been leaning on Wilson in a similar fashion; letting Garver split time and continue to learn from another veteran. And really, Wilson seems pretty salty behind the plate.

     

    But there also comes a time for the youngster...with talent, potential and a future...to have the training wheels removed and be allowed to play and ride with the big kids. Garver's opportunity and time is NOW. He should be catching 70% of the time, or close to it. (He can also DH some, as he did tonight against Boston). Wilson needs to be the backup and erstwhile veteran.

     

    Garver actually has a future with the Twins. Wilson does not.

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    I mentioned this in my post on Garver the other day. I don't think there is much question that a healthy Castro would have been the primary catcher if healthy. Garver could "break in" as the backup and DH some and learn on the job. And perhaps Molitor has been leaning on Wilson in a similar fashion; letting Garver split time and continue to learn from another veteran. And really, Wilson seems pretty salty behind the plate. But there also comes a time for the youngster...with talent, potential and a future...to have the training wheels removed and be allowed to play and ride with the big kids. Garver's opportunity and time is NOW. He should be catching 70% of the time, or close to it. (He can also DH some, as he did tonight against Boston). Wilson needs to be the backup and erstwhile veteran. Garver actually has a future with the Twins. Wilson does not.

    I think your comment inspired mine.

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    When you consider Wilson's dismal offensive numbers, it's a fair question to ask if any catcher in AAA or AA would do worse. The next question would be, who in AAA or AA would be a better defensive catcher to back up Garver?

     

    Brian Navaretto, y'all. Big guy, six-four, big arm behind the dish. Hitting a big .246 in AA, he's got 65 hits, including 15 doubles and 4 home runs. Point is, his services would be cheap, and he can close his eyes and swing just as well as Wilson does. Meanwhile, big arm, and an occasional extra base hit. 

     

    Why not?

     

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    When you consider Wilson's dismal offensive numbers, it's a fair question to ask if any catcher in AAA or AA would do worse. The next question would be, who in AAA or AA would be a better defensive catcher to back up Garver?

     

    Brian Navaretto, y'all. Big guy, six-four, big arm behind the dish. Hitting a big .246 in AA, he's got 65 hits, including 15 doubles and 4 home runs. Point is, his services would be cheap, and he can close his eyes and swing just as well as Wilson does. Meanwhile, big arm, and an occasional extra base hit. 

     

    Why not?

    Best offensive season he has ever had. Late bloomer? We can only hope so!

     

    Unfortunately, he may still be a season or more away. That may not be a bad thing, BTW, if your short term doesn't stink.

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    I mentioned this in my post on Garver the other day. I don't think there is much question that a healthy Castro would have been the primary catcher if healthy. Garver could "break in" as the backup and DH some and learn on the job. And perhaps Molitor has been leaning on Wilson in a similar fashion; letting Garver split time and continue to learn from another veteran. And really, Wilson seems pretty salty behind the plate. But there also comes a time for the youngster...with talent, potential and a future...to have the training wheels removed and be allowed to play and ride with the big kids. Garver's opportunity and time is NOW. He should be catching 70% of the time, or close to it. (He can also DH some, as he did tonight against Boston). Wilson needs to be the backup and erstwhile veteran. Garver actually has a future with the Twins. Wilson does not.

     

    I like this take, a lot. But 27 year olds ........ not really "youngsters" in baseball, even if it is just their first full season in the show. If Gibson is too old at 30, as some suggest, we only have a couple years left before Garver can't catch, as catchers seem to have to come out from behind the plate all too soon. These careers seem to be getting shorter and shorter. I hear some talking about Realmuto, who is 2 months younger than Garver, getting old at 27. Not me, but it is curious. 27-29 is usually heralded as the "prime". Here's to the 30 something stars. I really don't like how the system doesn't pay players what they are worth in the great early years, and then pay them too much in the lean later years. 

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    When you consider Wilson's dismal offensive numbers, it's a fair question to ask if any catcher in AAA or AA would do worse. The next question would be, who in AAA or AA would be a better defensive catcher to back up Garver?

     

    Brian Navaretto, y'all. Big guy, six-four, big arm behind the dish. Hitting a big .246 in AA, he's got 65 hits, including 15 doubles and 4 home runs. Point is, his services would be cheap, and he can close his eyes and swing just as well as Wilson does. Meanwhile, big arm, and an occasional extra base hit. 

     

    Why not?

    Does he develop as a hitter if he doesn’t stay in the minor leagues? Maybe his future is that of Butera but he needs time to develop. Give him that time.

     

    Does Wilson’s experience in the majors and pitch sequencing have any value? He has been the primary catcher for Berrios and Gibson. Berrios is among the league leaders in fewest pitches per inning. Gibson has taken another step forward.

     

    Defense at catcher is so much more than blocking pitches, throwing out runners and framing. It would be really hard to imagine how a catcher with also little experience above A ball could possibly be comparable defensively with Wilson. There isn’t even a way to measure Wilson’s impact on the development of Garver.

     

    Wilson will move on after this season but the progress of Garver, Berrios and Gibson will remain.

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    Last nights game was great to see both Garver and Wilson contribute. Garver got the clutch hit, Wilson actually got a hit and his play calling, pitch framing was terrific. He'd set up Gibson and Gibby hit the spot perfectly. I like this tandem and Wilson should make Garver a better catcher.

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    I mentioned this in my post on Garver the other day. I don't think there is much question that a healthy Castro would have been the primary catcher if healthy. Garver could "break in" as the backup and DH some and learn on the job. And perhaps Molitor has been leaning on Wilson in a similar fashion; letting Garver split time and continue to learn from another veteran. And really, Wilson seems pretty salty behind the plate. But there also comes a time for the youngster...with talent, potential and a future...to have the training wheels removed and be allowed to play and ride with the big kids. Garver's opportunity and time is NOW. He should be catching 70% of the time, or close to it. (He can also DH some, as he did tonight against Boston). Wilson needs to be the backup and erstwhile veteran. Garver actually has a future with the Twins. Wilson does not.

     

    The time for Garver was the beginning of last season with a commitment to have him catch at least half the games. 

     

    Garver and several other guys demonstrate that there is an adjustment process.  So, instead of getting these adjustments over and done with, this organization stretches out this process, often dumping them back to Rochester for the slightest mistake or bad performance. 

     

    They have moved guys like Busenitz up and down that there is no way this guy has had a chance to establish any type of routine, and the psychoogical impact on the players cannot be underestimated as the team demonstrates a complete lack of faith in their own prospects.   

     

    It would be different if the Twins had stellar alternatives.  But they don't.  So why not get these guys in the lineup.  Arguing that they have a better chance with Bobby WIlson catching versus Mitch Garver is ludicrous no matter what the "DRS" differential.  IN the end, Garver has the potential to be a contributor 2-3 years down the road.  Wilson does not.  It should not even be a question.

     

     

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    I love Garver's bat.  At this point, he needs as much time at catcher as possible and maybe his pitch framing will improve.  But - the man cannot catch the ball.  I have never seen a catcher drop the ball as much as he does.  It must be a concentration issue as he does not seem to do it as much during important plays or when someone is on base.  But, with that said, he seems to drop the ball with runners on base more than most catchers.  Am I the only one or has anybody noticed this.  Wilson has had his chance and the Twins need to develop players.  But, how many times has Garver dropped a pitch down the middle and the camera pans to Molitor with that look on his face like someone farted.  I think that is the biggest reason Garver isn't catching.  Molitor just doesn't trust him behind the plate.  

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    Maybe this has always been obvious to everyone but it just sort of dawned on me. 

     

    We talk about how most batters need an adjustment period to adjust from seeing minor league pitchers to seeing major league pitcher. That makes logical sense. Major league pitchers have faster and nastier stuff.

     

    So wouldn't it stand to reason that a catcher would need an adjustment period to CATCHING major league pitching? Faster and nastier makes it harder to catch and block, not to mention the idea of calling the pitches for someone with faster and nastier stuff than you're used to catching. 

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    Garver dropping a pitch right down the middle costs the Twins what, compared to Wilson not hitting at all? That's the math.....and, yes, I don't get to see the games.....but I can't imagine Wilson is that much better at defense......I can't imagine anyone is at catcher, to make up the offensive difference.

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    How much do we expect him to catch?

     

    In the same stretch where Garver caught 8 of 16, Perez caught 10 of 16. On the season Perez has started 61.7% of Royal games. He has started 38 of 73 since the injury to Castro. I argue that he should have caught the 5th starter more so he was closer to 60% but I also acknowledge there is a lot to learn at catcher.

     

    How much would that shift the record?

     

    The Twins record by starting catcher...

     

    Castro 7-12

    Garver 23-24

    Wilson 18-17

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    How much do we expect him to catch?

    In the same stretch where Garver caught 8 of 16, Perez caught 10 of 16. On the season Perez has started 61.7% of Royal games. He has started 38 of 73 since the injury to Castro. I argue that he should have caught the 5th starter more so he was closer to 60% but I also acknowledge there is a lot to learn at catcher.

    How much would that shift the record?

    The Twins record by starting catcher...

    Castro 7-12
    Garver 23-24
    Wilson 18-17

     

    catcher wins? Is that really a thing?

     

    I mean, the Twins went to the playoffs with Jason Tyner at DH.....doesn't mean they couldn't have done better. The Astros have a few holes, doesn't mean those bad players are good players, just because they are on a winning team.

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    Just a result.

     

    There’s seems to be a narrative that the Twins poor record is in part due to playing Wilson and that his poor bat has hurt the team a lot more than his defensive contribution.

     

    It may be hurting the team but it is hard to find support for that statement in the results. I don’t think we have any tools to measure the real impact of the catcher to preventing runs.

     

    Again I appreciate Wilson’s contribution to the team. I think he will have had a lasting impact on Garver, Berrios and Gibson.

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    Just a result.

    There’s seems to be a narrative that the Twins poor record is in part due to playing Wilson and that his poor bat has hurt the team a lot more than his defensive contribution.

    It may be hurting the team but it is hard to find support for that statement in the results. I don’t think we have any tools to measure the real impact of the catcher to preventing runs.

    Again I appreciate Wilson’s contribution to the team. I think he will have had a lasting impact on Garver, Berrios and Gibson.

     

    how is it hard to find in the results?

     

    We know exactly how he has "contributed" on offense, and it holds negative value. 

     

    Nothing about the TEAM won loss record says anything about their relative value, unless you think LAA having a losing season says Trout isn't as good as Kepler last year....

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    I love Garver's bat.  At this point, he needs as much time at catcher as possible and maybe his pitch framing will improve.  But - the man cannot catch the ball.  I have never seen a catcher drop the ball as much as he does.  It must be a concentration issue as he does not seem to do it as much during important plays or when someone is on base.  But, with that said, he seems to drop the ball with runners on base more than most catchers.  Am I the only one or has anybody noticed this.  Wilson has had his chance and the Twins need to develop players.  But, how many times has Garver dropped a pitch down the middle and the camera pans to Molitor with that look on his face like someone farted.  I think that is the biggest reason Garver isn't catching.  Molitor just doesn't trust him behind the plate.  

    I have mentioned this multiple times. He has really bad hands. The number of times a pitch hits his glove, and doesn't stick, stands out.

     

     

     

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    I have mentioned this multiple times. He has really bad hands. The number of times a pitch hits his glove, and doesn't stick, stands out.

     

    which costs them what, compared to hitting worse than a pitcher?

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    how is it hard to find in the results?

     

    We know exactly how he has "contributed" on offense, and it holds negative value. 

     

    Nothing about the TEAM won loss record says anything about their relative value, unless you think LAA having a losing season says Trout isn't as good as Kepler last year....

    Wow! In no way did I suggest that comparing across teams was of any value. I really don’t appreciate that characterization.

     

    It is only of value here for those who suggest that Wilson’s poor bat has had a huge impact on the Ywons record. They are 18-17 when Wilson is the catcher. Suppose Garver had 6 of this starts and he was 15-14. Do we really think they would have gone 6-0 in those other games and net 3 wins?

     

    Let’s talk specifically yesterday. I don’t think Gibson gets to the 8th inning with Garver catching. His pitch count would likely have been higher. Do the Twins win that game needing to get two clean innings out of a bullpen where Hildenberger wasn’t available?

     

    The guy can’t hit. He shouldn’t be on the team next year. He should starting closer to 40% of the games than 47-48%. He isn’t a zero though. He brings value and contributes significantly to preventing runs. He is not the reason the Twins are 5 games below .500 and it would be hard to argue that giving a Garver 6 of this games would have shifted the bottom line at all.

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    which costs them what, compared to hitting worse than a pitcher?

    It's hard to quantify defense, especially at catcher. So I don't know. I do know my opinion is, the Twins probably don't win 2-1 last night with Garver at catcher. I strongly doubt he blocks all the pitches in the dirt that Gibson threw last night, for one thing.

     

    It's obvious the Twins feel the delta between the two isn't as large as it appears offensively. I would imagine they have at least some metrics that lead them to this conclusion.

     

     

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    It's hard to quantify defense, especially at catcher. So I don't know. I do know my opinion is, the Twins probably don't win 2-1 last night with Garver at catcher. I strongly doubt he blocks all the pitches in the dirt that Gibson threw last night, for one thing.

     

    It's obvious the Twins feel the delta between the two isn't as large as it appears offensively. I would imagine they have at least some metrics that lead them to this conclusion.

     

    I agree they must feel and know stuff we don't (well, they feel the same as you!)......

     

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    Wow! In no way did I suggest that comparing across teams was of any value. I really don’t appreciate that characterization.

    It is only of value here for those who suggest that Wilson’s poor bat has had a huge impact on the Ywons record. They are 18-17 when Wilson is the catcher. Suppose Garver had 6 of this starts and he was 15-14. Do we really think they would have gone 6-0 in those other games and net 3 wins?

    Let’s talk specifically yesterday. I don’t think Gibson gets to the 8th inning with Garver catching. His pitch count would likely have been higher. Do the Twins win that game needing to get two clean innings out of a bullpen where Hildenberger wasn’t available?

    The guy can’t hit. He shouldn’t be on the team next year. He should starting closer to 40% of the games than 47-48%. He isn’t a zero though. He brings value and contributes significantly to preventing runs. He is not the reason the Twins are 5 games below .500 and it would be hard to argue that giving a Garver 6 of this games would have shifted the bottom line at all.

     

    No one is saying Bobby wilson is the reason they are five games under .500.

     

     

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