Game Score: Twins 3, Mariners 4 (Buxton Blasts, but Bullpen Blows Save)

This is why we need to fire Rocco now.  In the case use a closer who has closed before, you only have 2.  

This gave me flashbacks to last years first two weeks. Heartbreaking loss, especially after getting all fired up about Buck. Duffey shouldn’t be closing ballgames for us and that’s that. He has shown he is a good set up guy, and he should stay in that role. To me, early on I want to Alcala and Pagan closing, and if Duran has a couple more good outings start working him in there as well. Hopefully Rocco learns from today. Starting off 0-2 is not great, but forget about it and end off the series at 500. 

"we saw glimmers of what is yet to come with this team"

That's what I'm afraid of, yes.

Good recap, though, Sherry. 

Quote

The Twins will finish their series at home with the Mariners tomorrow at 1:10 pm central time with Bailey Ober taking on left-hander Marco Gonzalez.  

Have they already scratched the game scheduled for Monday?

There is not much to be concerned about this early in the season.  My guess is Duffy won't be given the next chance.  Honestly I bet they will try Pagan, see how he does if not pass it on to Alcala or Duran.  Duffy just doesn't quite have it going right now.  Every single hit seemed to be hit hard.   Its 1 game.  Honestly I don't expect us to contend,  mainly 500 ball but I do want to see better situational hitting.  We have to be able to get more hits.  It may be early in the season but we have a lot of swing and miss players out there right now.  

Rogers is not a closer. The Twins needed a closer last year and got Colome. They needed one this year and got...no one.

If you thought Duffey had potential, you ahd all last season, especially in September, to see if he could handle the job. The guy is a mid-inning and possible set-up guy. But NOT a closer.

Alcala could be a closer, but again...did you try him last September?

Of course, if you don't mind losing games like this, it doesn't matter. Go by committee. Have another crappy April. Of course, since you have no written-in-stone bonifide closer, better hope you don't have a full month of 1-run games.

Duran NEEDS to be given the chance. He ahs the stuff. He can get the outs. 

But, alas, if we go thru the week and end up with NO starter giving us five innings...we may question how well the Twins used their limited spring training, and the faith they have in their aresnal of starting arms.

Frustrating.

I just can't help but feel that the Twins as a team have a problem with crumbling in big spots. It affects everything, from hitting with RISP to late game performances and of course the Streak of Horror.

It's a shame, because the results of these two games really overshadowed some nice moments and performances, especially on the pitching side. 

Well, let's hope the bats get going from tomorrow on, make this post sound dumb and that soon no one remembers two close losses to begin the season. Can't wait to watch Ober tomorrow. Let's go!

Last season we went out an got an established closer with an impeccable track record, let him be the primary guy for the 9th inning, and it was an utter catastrophe to start the season. 

This season we didn't go out and buy someone to be "the closer" and it's gone badly in exactly one game so far. 

I fear that because last year we had a team with high expectations that crapped out early, we now have a large and noisy section of the fanbase that is going to second-guess every single decision made and completely overreact to anything that doesn't go 100% perfectly.

It's been 2 games.

Tyler Colome.

33 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

This gave me flashbacks to last years first two weeks.

Yep, this is exactly what was happening last year. If I recall the Mariners came to Target Field in April and took 3-of-4. I hate to say it, but I think Ober gets rocked tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins got swept.

It's not "early". Early is March, when they play practice games. These games count just as much as the ones in September. This Twins team isn't ready, tied for Cleveland for last already.

To blow this game after Bux hit the go-ahead HR in the bottom of the 8th has the stink of 2021 all over it.

13 minutes ago, Sielk said:

But I saw someone point out on Twitter that Duffey is 4-for-13 in career save opportunities. I couldn't believe that and looked it up myself. That person was correct.

It is a very misleading stat for set up men. It is possible to come in the 7th or 8th and blow a save even though you were never going to get the opportunity to record the save. Success in those innings is recorded as a hold not a save. We shouldn’t look at the 9 failures without looking at his 63 career holds also. It might be more accurate to say he is 67-for-76 in holding the lead. 

Here are two hot takes which I fear might actually turn out to be true. First, this lineup is not very good overall and only decent if Buxton, Correa and Polanco all hit well. The rest of the lineup looks like a wasteland other than Urshela and Arraez and it doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to play both of them the same day. Kirilloff appears badly overmatched and needs a trip back down to AAA, and we already know that Sano is the best a streaky number six type hitter, and that Kepler is simply not a good hitter overall and can’t hit left-handers at all. The rest of the spots are just Hopes and wishes. Moreover, we can’t hit left-handed pitching at all since it effectively takes Arraez and Kepler out of the lineup. That right handed hitting outfielder we were hoping for to be the fourth outfielder? We need that guy now and we need him to play every day either in left field or in right field when a lefty starts. We are way to home run dependent to score runs, bad roster management.
 

The second is that it’s going to take us at least a month or two to find any sort of reliable closer. Duffy is not the answer and was just a bad managerial choice given his track record of 4 out of 13 in save opportunities. But watch, Rocco will give him at least three or four more tries before he does the right thing and starts running Pagán, Alcala, and maybe Duran out there. We will have to find one or two of those three to close games.

My overreaction is that this team will be something like 12 - 18 after 30 games, struggle and fail to even get to .500 by the All-Star break, and the hot topic on this board will be who we’re going to get when we trade Carlos Correa at the All-Star break or deadline. I’m following Lewis at SS and Miranda, who is hopefully playing in left field at  AAA, and Martin who hopefully is also playing in the outfield in AA. Those guys will need to make a big contribution this year for us to make a second-half run. Final record: 78–84.

33 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It is a very misleading stat for set up men. It is possible to come in the 7th or 8th and blow a save even though you were never going to get the opportunity to record the save. Success in those innings is recorded as a hold not a save. We shouldn’t look at the 9 failures without looking at his 63 career holds also. It might be more accurate to say he is 67-for-76 in holding the lead. 

Damn, I didn't realize that a "blown hold" is recorded as a blown save. Thank you, that explains it and 67-76 is of course a perfectly fine record.

Doesn't change the fact though that my confidence in Duffey isn't as high as it once was. It just seems like he has been slightly off for a while now. Would be really nice if Alcalá or Duran could step into the closer role (or the highest leverage role, if you want to avoid having a traditional closer).

Taylor Rogers had a clean save yesterday for the Padres, no hit one strikeout. Thank you FO.

37 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

That right handed hitting outfielder we were hoping for to be the fourth outfielder? We need that guy now and we need him to play every day either in left field or in right field when a lefty starts.

This guy might be available:

I don't agree with the idea that Duffy is somehow 67-76 because of his holds in innings other than the 9th, There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tense and psychologically easier to do because your team always has the ability and the time to rally if you don't pitch well. There is a reason that some guys thrive in ninth inning close situations and some don't; it's their ability to handle pressure where there is an air of finality attached to their performance. I think Duffy is a very good setup man, can do a great job in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, and I'm glad we have him. He does not have the temperament to be a closer based upon his very poor record in that role.

I think baseball has become so analytically based that sometimes we forget these are human beings, not robots. You have to take the human element into account. Some players are able to maintain their performance in clutch or pressure situations (no one actually gets better in those situations), and some are not as good at that. A closer needs to be someone who could maintain his performance. Duffy's track record showed that he is not that guy in ninth inning situations. Trying him as a closer might have made sense without considering his emotional makeup but it doesn't when you take that into consideration. The failure to do that is on the manager. That is his primary job. I've been a defender of Rocco but it is getting hard.

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Yep, this is exactly what was happening last year. If I recall the Mariners came to Target Field in April and took 3-of-4. I hate to say it, but I think Ober gets rocked tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins got swept.

It's not "early". Early is March, when they play practice games. These games count just as much as the ones in September. This Twins team isn't ready, tied for Cleveland for last already.

To blow this game after Bux hit the go-ahead HR in the bottom of the 8th has the stink of 2021 all over it.

This game was blown by the manager. Baldelli  is not a winner..his object is to follow a game plan and doesn’t deviate.  Lacks a winning feel. When you have guys in the bullpen who throw 100mph…bring them in and win the game.

8 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't agree with the idea that Duffy is somehow 67-76 because of his holds in innings other than the 9th, There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tense and psychologically easier to do because your team always has the ability and the time to rally if you don't pitch well. There is a reason that some guys thrive in ninth inning close situations and some don't; it's their ability to handle pressure where there is an air of finality attached to their performance. I think Duffy is a very good setup man, can do a great job in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, and I'm glad we have him. He does not have the temperament to be a closer based upon his very poor record in that role.

I think baseball has become so analytically based that sometimes we forget these are human beings, not robots. You have to take the human element into account. Some players are able to maintain their performance in clutch or pressure situations (no one actually gets better in those situations), and some are not as good at that. A closer needs to be someone who could maintain his performance. Duffy's track record showed that he is not that guy in ninth inning situations. Trying him as a closer might have made sense without considering his emotional makeup but it doesn't when you take that into consideration. The failure to do that is on the manager. That is his primary job. I've been a defender of Rocco but it is getting hard.

The issue was that I looked at his Fangraphs page, saw 4 saves and 9 blown saves and wrongly concluded that he was 4-13. But apparently you get a blown save even if you never had an opportunity to record a save in the first place.

For example, Duffey comes in for the 8th inning, blows the lead (which will happen sometimes in 76 appearances) and gets credited with a blown save. Of course, it was the 8th inning and he never had the opportunity to record a save.

So forget about that 4-13. That was my mistake and never happened. The majority of those 13 probably occurred in earlier innings and should absolutely be compared to his 63 career holds. Duffey's actual 9th inning record is better than that.

Blowing games in the 9th is bad, but this team has only given up 6 runs in 2 games which is totally fine. Scoring 2 runs / game isn’t going to win many. This lineup needs Kiriloff to step up or it’s pretty top-heavy.

27 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tens

True enough, and agree with that. But also the statistical piece is that 3- 9th inning outs with a 1-run lead is more valuable than 3-6th inning outs with a 1-run lead. Over 162 games, the noise balances out a bit. But in a 5 or 7 game playoff series, there is less, or no, room for error.

I couldnt find much statistical comparatives, but this came close, an analysis of 2020 season blown saves using WPA...doesnt address specifically 9th inning one-run blown saves, but still interesting. Exec summary quote: In a short season, a bullpen that can close out games — irrespective of score or runs allowed — is key, and that is demonstrated there. 

http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/the-impact-of-the-bullpen-in-60-games

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

we now have a large and noisy section of the fanbase that is going to second-guess every single decision made and completely overreact to anything that doesn't go 100% perfectly.

1) It's in our job description. And we've been doing this for a lot longer than a year.

2) 100% perfectly doesn't describe anything about the Minnesota Twins for decades. It's not like we haven't been patient through bad decisions in the FO and the dugout.

3) Last year, we just so happened to be right. The problems we were screaming about after the first few series were the problems that sunk the season. It's possible that trading away Rogers with no clear plan for a shut-down arm to take the 9th is going to be a problem. A big one.

4) Thankfully, we have not yet been mathematically eliminated from contention. See, there's optimism!

54 minutes ago, peterb18 said:

This game was blown by the manager. Baldelli  is not a winner..his object is to follow a game plan and doesn’t deviate.  Lacks a winning feel. When you have guys in the bullpen who throw 100mph…bring them in and win the game.

They have a guy who can throw 100, but doesn't the "closer's mentality" rule out Duran? Wouldn't it be unwise to give a guy who's never been a reliever and never throw at the major league level save situations so early on? Don't get me wrong, I think Alcala should be getting save chances, but throwing a rookie to the sharks seems like a bad idea.

Would a manager with a "winning feel" have done considerably better in 2021 and these 2 games in 2022? I dunno, I think a manager can only do so much with the roster given, especially with the bullpen losing Rogers. I'm not a big fan of Baldelli, but it's not like they're going to find a different manager who can immediately win more games because of his "feel".