Forecasting Mauer's Remaining Years

When the "good" is "sharing co-American League Player of the week honors" .... that's pretty much all that needs to be said.

Over the past 3 seasons, Mauer has hit .267/.353/.380, 100 wRC+ (2.8 fWAR, 5.9 rWAR). 2015 was the one season of the three in which he didn't miss a significant amount of games, but then Fangraphs says that he was practically replacement-level that year.

I suppose that's about what we can expect from him in the next couple seasons. A good OBP, light pop, quality defense, probably some nagging injuries. Not a total hole in the lineup, but below-average production at 1B.

I'd be glad to see All-Star Joe come back, of course, even if it would present the front office with a problem after 2018.

There was really no good reason not to believe that Joe Mauer was Hall of Fame bound when they inked that contract. He was an excellent catcher as well as one of the best hitters in the game. I don't think people expected him to have every year look like 2009, but had his decline been gradual his HOF case would have been pretty sound.

Two more years of roughly what we got this year, I expect, though I also expect him to play a good deal less as Park and Vargas (or someone else) begin to give him days off more frequently.

Well I will say this much as he was a great singles hitter for so many years but his .260 avg don't you think it actually hurts his hall of fame chances? Before 1st base he was a hall of famer he hit .330 now he can't nor do I think he is gonna get better than .260 but Molitor is actually thinking about sitting him so if he only plays 3 days a week he might hit .300 again that's his only chance otherwise were really looking at maybe .250

Even tho he's been an average .267 hitter over the past 3 years, his lifetime BA is .307.  I think the HOF voters will remember him as an elite catcher for a decade.  And they also won't forget the concussion and blurred vision after 2013.

I expect him to be playing less. Two days off per week and more than that later in the season. Mostly only home games and even then as DH.

I make myself feel better by imaging Dozier's production comes at 1B and Mauer's at 2B and that the two are each paid $16 million. It still works out the same, but everyone's a little happier.

How one view injuries in the context of a players career will likely influence that persons perception of Mauer. And here is, IMHO, another. Mauer and Carew had a couple things in common, one was the enormous natural talent to make being an athlete look effortless, and two is the publics misconception that they weren't going all out. The game looked so easy for them. That said, I look at Mauer as someone who's final numbers will be severely blunted by his concussion(s). That he was one of the outstanding two way catchers in baseball history. That batting titles by catchers happen less often than we walked on the moon. And that using the end of a ten year contract to analyze a players career worth is not a useful exercise. The Twins and Mauer did what anyone else would have 8 years ago. The Twins locked up a great player in his prime, an absolute necessity after the TF promise of competitive payrolls, and Mauer took the money and played efficiently and quietly. How the Twins use Mauer in these last two years, is on the Twins, not on Joe Mauer!

I, too, take nothing away from Joe's former accomplishments.  He truly was one of the greatest Twins/ ever - until concussed.  As a fan, at the time I was happy the Twins signed him to a long term contract.  But not so any more.

With a long rebuild in store, isn't it time now to move on from the Mauer years?  He has become a millstone at a position that historically has required above average power numbers.  His presence limits the AB's of some players,e.g., Vargas and Park, already on the roster, not to mention the one or two year signing of a veteran free agent power hitter currently still on the market(Napoli, Trumbo, Davis) who by their very presence in place of Mauer improves the team and allows the younger players to develop.

A franchise intent on turning things around would eat the $46MM remaining on his contract(perhaps by contributing a large portion, they might find a contender in need of a veteran bat).  After all, this money is a sunk cost, anyway.  If ownership is truly interested in building a championship contender as soon as possible, then the money should be secondary to unblocking position openings, like done with Plouffe.  But if F&L's hands are tied by ownership to make such a bold move, as they have been with Molitor, one has to question the ballclub's true commitment to winning at all costs. Other than the monetary angle, there can be no other reason for keeping Joe on the field.

I am sorry to say that I believe his HOF chances are gone and each of the years he has played since moving from catcher have cost him more votes.  It is a shame, but the vote should look at a career.  A couple of past the prime years are okay, but we are moving to a point where he will have half a career well below his standards.  The injuries took their toll and that is regrettable.  The money belongs to Polhad so I could care less.  With a payroll at $70million when you remove the three high paid and injured players we have not invested enough where it counts.  

Other teams have big contracts that they regret because most sign them when they have already peaked.  Mauer was at his peak and the investment did not look as bad.  However, having made a bad investment the team compounded the error by not building a team and writing off the bad debt.  That is on owners and FO not on the player.

I expect him to be playing less. Two days off per week and more than that later in the season. Mostly only home games and even then as DH.

Why make the home fans suffer? I'd rather see Mauer play mostly on the road & let the youngsters play in front of the home fans. Then the home fans can get excited about the future instead of being frustrated by watching Mauer's poor ABs that end in Ks way too often now.

So the Good Mauer is making strong contact in the middle and high center of the zone, while the Mediocre Mauer is trying to deal with pitches inside and low the zone as well with some success.

 

The writing is on the wall:  Mauer has to lay off two-seamers, cutters, and changeups, esp if they are low and in.  Can he?  He did last April.

 

Based on the fact that the Twins are getting better with the analytics, and have a couple new coaches on the hitting department that can work things out with Mauer to get the BABIP towards that .350 mark and the soft contact down to 6-7%, a .290/.380/.420 slash is not out of question as a baseline for the next 2 season.

Good work on finding this.  I wonder if his vision and slowed reactions due to concussions have an effect on judging pitches that are not down the middle.  If his swing hasn't slowed (I don't know if it has or hasn't) then something like sight, timing or judgement could be a cause for this.  If that is the case no number of analytics will help him unfortunately.

I'd platoon him with Park. 

The premise of the thread is forecasting Mauer's next two seasons. Therefore:  much waxing of yester-decade, much Mauer-bashing, continued suggestion that Joe should play another position, lift weights, eat better, and pull the ball. Many will question the logic of offering such a lengthy contract--yet will postulate that some present Twins should be signed to "long-term contracts" despite the experience with Mauer.

Playing Joe 4-5 days a week should work.  That will give Park and Grossman(if he is on the team) plenty of AB's vs LHP.  Just pick your spots.  Did not see an analysis of day vs night games.  That would also be useable information. 

I would tell Joe this was the plan before spring training.  He may change his mind on some things if he does not like it.  Hopefully he retires or agrees to waive his no trade clause.  I doubt this will happen, but we all should be aware that the best young manager in the system the Twins have is his brother Jake.  Twins might not want to ruin that relationship if they make a change.

Great post from Thrylos and I commend him for the detail and hard work that went in to it! And I get and appreciate his possible projections for Mauer were he able to focus more/better on pitches in certain zones and lay off the others. But I just don't believe this is feasible.

I am not bashing Mauer and completely appreciate his past greatness and what he has meant to the organization. But the simple truth is Mauer IS aging, his recognition, contact and power HAVE regressed. And there always seems to be an injury or two that slow him or keep him out for a period of time. Used appropriately as a part time player, I think a .260-ish BA and .360-.370 OB are still possible for the next two seasons. With quality defense, he is still a functional, useful player and quality PH when not starting a game. Personally, when he does start a game, I'd bat him around the 6th or 7th spot to provide some OB options ahead of Rosario and our catching platoon.

Well, I think Joe still makes the HOF.  He'll end his career with more than 2000 hits, 3 batting titles and an MVP.  Tim Raines also had a very small peak and it looks like he'll get into the HOF.  Mauer won't be a first ballot guy but he'll get in.

 

As for the next few years, I think he'll have flashes of old Mauer and I really hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him but I suspect the next two seasons will look a lot like the last two seasons.

If he gets in it'll be on the batting titles, MVP, elite years of AVG & OBP, and some future generation of sportswriters that give weight to advanced stats during his catching days. Nothing he's doing at 1B is really helping his candidacy since he doesn't have the counting numbers that impress. He never cracked 100 RBI, only cracked 90 RBI once, and even 70 RBI only five times. Only one season above 13 HRs and six seasons in the double digits. Walks and doubles don't help much unless they come from an elite runner and base stealer.

The counting stat he does have is hits, as you mentioned. It's not a sure thing, but he should reach 2,000 hits if he's healthy and plays at least 3/4 time the next two years or has a big bounce back year. I'm just not sure that'll be enough without elite run production, game-changing power, base-running numbers, or something else to go along with it. Especially when the last 5 years of his career will have been padding that hit total with replacement-level play at 1B.