Five Pitchers for the Twins #5 Pick in the 2023 MLB Draft

Waldrep's strikeout numbers are impressive. But each of these pitchers has another season to pitch before the draft. I do hope the Twins chose to draft a durable, top pitching prospect with the number 5 pick. 

Nice, very informative article.  I don't know about which I would choose but I hope for once this FO chooses a pitcher, that can have a positive impact sooner than later.

Personally I try to shy away from HS arms high in draft.  They are so hard to really project. Yes, some become some of the best, but some fully flop too, they are the biggest high risk high reward kind of guys.  Not that college pitchers are locks either though, but they tend to be ale to fly through minors faster and contribute faster too.  

I do like Dollander best as I think he is a fast mover and the Twins need dominant pitching the thing is he seems unlikely to make it to number 5 with pitching needy Pittsburgh and Washington looking for ace level arms.  The High School kid seems "Petty like" with better size and likely less reliever risk.  He could fall to the Twins but there are some special bats at the top of this draft so there will be tough decisions to be made.

Due to TINSTAPP There is not such thing as a pitching prospect) I see the Twins likely taking the safe route with a bat.  They should be able to get a really good up the middle star type player (SS, CF) with less risk than banking on an arm holding up all the way to the Majors.  Having said that the Twins are in desperate need of difference making arms and if they feel really good about a couple of these pitchers given the state of the farm now would be the time to take that kind of risk.

I guess we will know more about what they decide to do after the draft but from what I can see they have excellent options picking at number 5 pretty much no matter how the board falls.  IMO the top 9 to 10 of this draft looks pretty good and then starts to fall off a little.  Twins just need to choose wisely in their spot.  Even at 34 they should be able to get a very good player they just need to pick well and I feel like they need to replenish the pitching pipeline so would like to see more pitchers than position players selected this coming draft. 

If the Twins are not willing to pay top dollar for an ace FA pitcher, then the draft is the next best way to finally get an ace FA pitcher is to draft pitchers early and frequently, hire the best pitching development coaches and advisors and pay them well, and develop many pitchers, with the hope that one will make an ace in 3 -4 years. 

So hard to know who the right guy is going to be, but there's no question the Twins will have some good options at #5. That high up in the draft, I'd prefer to avoid drafting a HS pitcher unless there's just so much more talent there than any other available option. So many things can go wrong there and I'd rather dodge a little risk with such a high pick when other options are likely to be on the table.

But generally, I think with a top 5 pick you take the best player available and figure it out later. I don't know who that's going to be, but I'm excited that the Twins get to find out!

I love that we are talking draft in December--that is what getting the number 5 pick can do to ramp up enthusiasm.  There is a whole lot more baseball to be played before we get really serious about our pick, but I confess I am interested to see what Wes Johnson can do with Skenes.  Absent injury, Dollander will be gone for sure, and I don't think they would use a 5 pick on a high school pitcher, or maybe on any pitcher for that matter given the bats that will be on the board, but if one of the other 3 really improves this year they might become attractive.  Actually, if Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and the other young pitchers are struggling by July, who knows what they might do?  Dman hit the nail on the head, however, as they are in a great position in a draft with up to 10 quality choices, maybe more as other players develop this year.  They should get a top notch talent.

It’s seems that the Twins drafting  philosophy is that there is less risk drafting a bat vs an arm when the pick is at the top of the draft.  In the ten drafts from 2008-2017, the twins drafted  9 pitchers in the first round and only two—Berrios and Gibson—have had success as staring pitchers. And the two highest picks, Stewart and Jay, were big busts.  On the hitting side, there were 8 first rounders and 3 of them, Buxton, Hicks, and Gordon, have been solid contributors. In addition, both Lewis and Kiriloff still have a good chance to be solid and arguably would already be if not for injury. This may be a small sample size but I think it is instructive. 

I can't wait to see what pitcher we take with the 5th overall pick who will, inevitably, come out of the bullpen for the Twins to pitch the 7th inning in 2025.  

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I keep reading hitters are safer. Which player was in the majors, healthy, last year, Lewis or Greene?

The Twins can't afford to sign an elite pitcher, and no one trades them..... Draft one. 

Well the Twins have missed on a fair number of hitters in the first round. Sabato, Rooker and Cavaco come to mind as some of their worst picks.  I don't know why this FO doesn't like to take pitchers early but from what has been discussed on this board they seem to feel they can find workable arms in the later rounds but feel it is harder to find\develop bats from the later rounds.  Since 2017 they have only taken one pitcher in the first round and that was Petty whom they promptly traded.

I don't know what the stats are on pitchers taken in the top 5 versus hitters but given how analytically driven this FO is there must be some reason they prefer hitters versus pitchers in the 1st round.

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. 

I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft.

Always pick the very best player available. Period.

But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

5 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. 

I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft.

Always pick the very best player available. Period.

But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

I’m with Doc on this one. I watched Dollander pitch a bunch this last year, and the kid is legit and if he was available at #5… take him. No questions asked. 

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I hated all three of those picks. Agreed, they seem to have a pattern. 

I never liked the Rooker pick from the beginning.  There were good pitching options there and he was so old for a prospect I was never on board.  I talked myself into Sabato and Cavaco as being solid picks at the time.  Although I wanted Carroll instead of Cavaco I still was willing to let it play out long term.  In hindsight they talked themselves out of the better player. 

To keep things moving they need to not miss with that top 5 pick and they need to get more arms in the system.  This is a strong draft pool they have a chance to reload.  They generally always go bats with international signing so they should go with more arms in the draft IMO.  Not saying they "have" to go arm at number 5 but then go arms through the top 10.

2 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

It’s seems that the Twins drafting  philosophy is that there is less risk drafting a bat vs an arm when the pick is at the top of the draft.  In the ten drafts from 2008-2017, the twins drafted  9 pitchers in the first round and only two—Berrios and Gibson—have had success as staring pitchers. And the two highest picks, Stewart and Jay, were big busts.  On the hitting side, there were 8 first rounders and 3 of them, Buxton, Hicks, and Gordon, have been solid contributors. In addition, both Lewis and Kiriloff still have a good chance to be solid and arguably would already be if not for injury. This may be a small sample size but I think it is instructive. 

It's a mistake to track back too far to try and establish a pattern in drafting; with a new regime comes a different philosophy and it makes little sense to hold Falvey & Levine responsible for drafting Kohl Stewart or Tyler Jay. They're responsible for trying to develop the draft picks they inherited, but they didn't draft them.

What should we presume with this front office when selecting at the top of the draft? Hard to know, i think. They've had 2 top 10 picks in their regime: a HS SS and a college SS. Most of their first round picks have been in the lower parts of the first round, and while that's been mostly college hitters, both of their picks in 2021 were HS players, one a pitcher. I think this front office looks for as much value as they think they can get in a draft more than anything else. They might prefer college players due to risk, but I don't think they're afraid to draft HS kids either. I don't think they'll be afraid to draft a pitcher at #5 if they think it's the best value prospect available.

This is where I'd like to see the Twins spend most of their draft capital this next draft.  How many years have we been saying we need more pitching?  In the best pitcher draft we could possibly have - maybe only 5 out of 20 work out to the majors right?  I like the signing of people like Brooks Lee - he's exciting and I'm thrilled he fell that far.  I just get tired of always looking for pitching.  Don't reach, but don't go drafting any more DH/1B types please when pitchers with potential are sitting there.

I personally like to draft the most athletic prospect. With Dollander's profile he'll be ranked #1 & many teams like to draft pitchers. But if Dollander falls in our lap, I'd be ecstatic. He has a very good shot at being an ace.

I'd probably keep an eye on Wes Johnson's Skenes but I'm not considering him our #1 yet.

California angels drafted 21 pitchers in 2021 , 

Everyone needs pitching ...

We draft petty and trade him ,,

Please don't trade arms that have high upside   ....

I'm in agreement that we need pitching but the lower  risk is to pick the best available player , whether it's a pitcher or a hitter .....

I'd lean more on the best pitcher at #5 , we picked up the best college bat at #8 last year ...