Early Projections Peg Central as Improving

Last season, the AL Central was a case of the haves and have nots. Both Chicago and Minnesota were expected to contend while Cleveland sat in no man's land, and Detroit and Kansas City floundered. It was easy to see that the Tigers were building something under A.J. Hinch, and the Royals have a glut of exciting talent ready to help at the big-league level. Because baseball is locked out and transactions are frozen, we don’t know how rosters will finalize, but there’s plenty to draw off now.
 
ZiPS sees the White Sox as the cream of the crop again, which should be expected. The 88 win total is a good spot, given the projection system. With room to fluctuate on both sides, it’s fair to assess the AL Central Division winner will again come in with a win total in the low-90s. From there, every other team is within four games of each other, and no one has a win total of fewer than 74 games. How these clubs are constructed currently is what makes this interesting.

Chicago might have already spent on most of their additions in adding Kendall Graveman and re-signing Leury Garcia. They will actively look to shop Craig Kimbrel, but the return doesn’t likely make them a better team. It’s anyone’s guess what the Guardians do as they haven’t spent money and are going the wrong way. Detroit made their big splash in paying for Javier Baez, and the Royals will probably rely more internally than anything. That leads us to the Twins.
 
Minnesota is currently projected for 75 wins, and that’s with at least two openings in the rotation and a shortstop needing to be addressed. I think it’s a good bet to plan on Derek Falvey acquiring a starter via trade, and then signing someone like Michael Pineda, Zack Greinke, or another veteran presence is a good step forward. Minnesota still has $50 million or more to spend, and being valued as such with the present roster is a testament to the lineup.
 
There’s no denying that the Twins should hit. They have one of the better lineups in baseball when things are clicking, and adding a healthy Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach should only help cement that reality. Rocco Baldelli’s club will go as far as the pitching staff allows it to, and that group will be as capable as the dollars or acquisition cost is stretched towards.
 
A year ago, the AL Central might have been the weakest division in baseball, but in 2022 it may wind up being the group with the most parity. Some of those teams on the bottom have strong farm systems ready to bear fruit, and that’s only going to ratchet up their overall competitiveness. Right now, the Twins are in a good place that allows them to put 2021 in the rearview mirror, but they must be committed to making that season little more than a blip on the radar.

Transactions will come quickly once the lockout is lifted, but how many wins the Twins can add from them will directly correlate to the quality of each move.