Dobnak Extension Brings Long-term Stability to Twins Rotation

Agree wholeheartedly. The projections are far away, so not really meant to spend too much time ruminating on right now, but such a solid move.

If the bottom three slide away, Dobnak, Thorpe, and a Duran/Balazovic plus $20 million to spend fill in neatly. This is a good deal for Dobnak and the Twins, both now and going forward.

With his new ability to strike guys out this could be an extremely good deal for the Twins.  Hard to say if Randy can stay healthy and productive for that long but if he does the Twins will be getting him at a bargain  price.  I have been a Dobnak doubter for too long.  Every time I doubt this guy I get burned.  Here's hoping it turns out to be a good deal for both sides.

Is it likely to see Maeda and Berrios in a Twins uniform thru 2025ish? I doubt Pineda will be here but there will be plenty of veteran rentals to fill in on a yearly basis until the young guns show up.

Nice deal for both sides. Given Dobsie's origin story (so similar to Wolverines), these millions give a good man a solid nest egg. Meanwhile, the Twins get a bargain basement version of Kenta Maeda, at the very start of a career that looks good now, but could get even better. 

Win-win.  Now let's win.

Just need Berrios and Bux to agree to 3-5 year extensions and the nucleus is here for awhile.

Great signing of a guy with a wonderful story. Good for the Twins. Good for Dobnak. Gotta make his family happy knowing they are set for life.

Saw that there are some bonuses included in the deal for innings pitched. Are they for the extension years only? Or also included in the initial five years? Could be very important for Dobber.

Am beginning to have a feeling that we won't see an extension for Berrios this year or next. Is the FO beginning to plan for a staff without Jose?

Expectations are so high, yet hasn't been able to do it consistently. With that said, they will probably announce his extension tomorrow.

He was already under under team control for all those years. So I wouldn't say it brings stability to the rotation. It just brings cost certainty. Which is good for them, in case he becomes a star. And good for him, if he flames out. Signing him now is just a gamble this price will become a bargain later. Which would be great. But the alternative was arbitration, not losing him.

Love this deal.  As a young man who has actually worked for a living,  Dobnak undertands that $9.25 million dollars is enough to live on for the rest of his life.  The Twins can't lose on this deal and it's refreshing to see the lack of greed in pro sports.  By the end of this contract Dobnak could be worth 15 times what he's being paid in this market. To me, even at his current contract, he is a very rich man.

I hope at the end of this deal he has collected the max. That would mean he performed well for the team for the next 8 years. 

Really happy for a fine young man and the Twins made a great deal. But I'm really curious about the escalators. Hopefully there is a way for him to make a fair salary if he develops into something solid ,,

At 1st I saw the low price, then I saw the incentives and thought not to bad, he could easily reach most of them. But then I thought it could be to appease him and be an another excuse not to give him the opportunity to rise. Really hope that's not the case.

Dobnak has a nice story but that's not the reason I cheer for him. It's because he can help the Twins to win, his avenue to success is the Twins. Hope they can see that and take full advantage of it. To me Dobnak is as steady as they come.

Go Twins.

Given that this is a Cleveland model - if he does well he will be traded in two or three years - think Clevinger, Bauer, Carrasco, Plutko...

  On 3/29/2021 at 3:26 PM, nicksaviking said:

Could be and it might be a good idea if they can manufacture pitchers with ease like Cleveland does.  

 

But this front office wasn't involved with the Cleveland organization when they started trading those guys. Cleveland also appears to be trying to shed payroll in the last few years while the Twins have been fairly consistent and don't seem to be headed for a rebuild. 

Actually Cleveland manages its money, but does not dump and rebuilds.  They have a system unlike anyone else and they stay competitive. 

  On 3/29/2021 at 3:05 PM, mikelink45 said:

Given that this is a Cleveland model - if he does well he will be traded in two or three years - think Clevinger, Bauer, Carrasco, Plutko...

Clevinger, Bauer, and Carrasco were traded while they had enough control to get a return. The Twins have 3 option years after the 5 year guarantee. They could keep him for 5-6 years and still get a return so I really doubt they would trade him after only 2-3 years. If the new slider has the impact we hope, the only way he gets traded is if we have enough young talent that letting him go is not an issue. That would be great situation!

Regardless of the price, I am not impressed that the "sturdy building block to serve as their bedrock" to supposedly get excited about for the long term...... is Dobnak. Steady as they come, eh? Except for the most recent month or so when he was totally figured out, bombed consistently, taken off the active roster and not even taken to the postseason.

Can you please let us know what the incentives are when they're made available?

  On 3/29/2021 at 4:45 PM, h2oface said:

Regardless of the price, I am not impressed that the "sturdy building block to serve as their bedrock" to supposedly get excited about for the long term...... is Dobnak. Steady as they come, eh? Except for the most recent month or so when he was totally figured out, bombed consistently, taken off the active roster and not even taken to the postseason.

I disagree with the last part of your statement..."except for the most recent month or so when he was totally figured out"

I don't think anyone figured anything out. If memory serves, Dobnak's pitches move a lot. What I saw beginning about the 3rd inning of that debacle in St. Louis where several weak ground balls against the shift put him in a hole. As he tried to pitch out of the jam, his ball began moving much more. And much of that movement took it so far out of the zone no one was swinging and he was constantly in a hitters count. To me, seemed something was happening, either mental or mechanical, that he couldn't get past. Expect that is now behind him and we will see the Dobber we knew prior to that game.

The Dobnak deal may look like a steal for the Twins, and hopefully it will long term, but Randy knows how quickly he could get cut and be back to having a different career.  Sure, if he becomes a good starter, not even great, he will have cost him some money long term, but he is one TJ surgery from having to prove he can make a MLB roster at league min as well. 

As a former contract negotiation attorney, I love the positive upside and the limited negative downside of this contract and, as a current Statistics professor, I especially love this graphic. It is a very effective communication of the current contract status of our starters. I hope you'll send it to the FO and they can start using it if they don't already have one like it (although I bet they do--but hey, now we do too so let's keep using it as more of our young pitchers hopefully get signed to deals like this). Good work Nick!

  On 3/29/2021 at 7:07 PM, Dodecahedron said:

Knowing many are skeptical of Dobnak, I was surprised when I came here this morning and saw all positive vibes in this thread. Turns out, I just had to wait a while for the negativity to start.

 

Some things to keep in perspective:

 

1. This is a team-friendly contract. Dobnak will be very tradeable if things do not work out. 

2. Being a bullpen arm is not out of the question.

3. Good knuckleballers get better as they age. If he doesn't get better (heh, as if he has not been good), see above.

Don't understand the knuckleball comment?

“Flexibility” is simply a product of developing a top-end starter once every blue moon, (and refusing to play anywhere near the top end of starting pitching free agency).

Still, it’s something to be thankful for in these uncertain times.

But for the grace of God, our favorite club could be saddled with the perennial dilemmas faced by Cleveland or Tampa Bay of whether to pay or trade for can’t-miss blue-chip prospects, their growing stable of all-star starting pitchers.

I watched Dobnak's new slider a few days ago and was as blown away by it as the batters he faced. While I can't remember which OP they were posted in, I watched a couple hilights re-posted and was again just so impressed by what I saw.

What we have seen thus far in his short career...77 IP...is a guy who doesn't allow many free passes, doesn't allow big 3HR mistakes, battles, and induces a lot of ground balls. These are all positives that would seem to give him a legitimate floor option as a valuable long man who can piggyback and spot start with a ceiling as a solid 5th SP who might develop/grow enough to be a decent #4 with a little more experience.

Now, if he can maintain any sort of consistency with that new slider...and if you haven't seen it you need to...it could be very easy to see him as a legitimate #4 rotation piece with the potential to be a #3. Crazy? Not if look at what he's accomplished so far and how devastating the early returns of his new slider have been.

The first few years of his contact pretty much guarantee what he could receive through arbitration as a "good" pitcher. The option years should be a great value for the Twins if he's a quality #4 and nothing better.

Look, I am super pumped about the arms in the system. Over the next 2yrs, Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Sands, Winder and maybe Chalmers are going to reach the ML level to one degree or another. (Chalmers may still end up in the pen). And I am re-engaged in my optimism regarding Thorpe. I fully believe he is going to be valuable this season in a variety or roles and could be a legitimate contender for the 2022 rotation as well.

I am not predicting greatness for Dobnak, but I am pretty optimistic about a young SP with a new pitch that looks that damn good so far.