Do The Twins Need A Proven Closer?

Some guys are better at starting an inning fresh  than coming in with men on and a high leverage deal. Stats only go so far. I think there will be some thought given to getting a guy who has ice water in his veins.

Anybody know a good stat approach for guys who shut the door in a two on situation?

I don't think WHIP tells you enough. 

I think the Twins need some bullpen flexibility. Kintzler appears to be able to work middle relief and step in to take over the ninth inning in case of extended ineffectiveness by whomever is tagged as the ninth inning guy.

So, I think Kintzler should receive serious consideration.

And, Kintzler now has a valuable commodity: post-season experience. 

Curtiss?   Busenitz?    Would like to see Kintzler back but not for 3 years and preferably not for 2.   Pay him big for one year.   He's earned it for us at least.

Managers like to "simplify things" for themselves. Perhaps because they hate making decisions? Most (all?) like a defined 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guy rather than a number of "options" to insert in the game.  To that mix, the Twins seem wedded to a defined role for every pitcher--starter, closer, preferred set-up, other set-up guy,  LOOGY, long-guy, mop-up guy, extra LHP RP, etc. Hence rather than developing pitchers they are checking boxes. Result--the Twins will sign pitchers to check the boxes this off-season rather than focusing on who might be the best pitcher.

I would be surprised if they didn't resign Kintzler next year.  He likes it in Minnesota and i could see them working out a 2 year with option or 3 year contract.  If they can get Belisle on a 1 year deal again for around 3.5 to 4 million I would do that.  But in all seriousness, the Twins do need to sign a second reliever.  I do like the idea of signing Wade Davis and using Kintzler as a set up man.  That gives 3 different looks from Hildenburger the side armer to Kintzler the ground ball machine to Davis who overpowers hitters.  then we just need a good lefty.  (Tyler Jay.....)

I think the Twins COULD go without and see what they actually do have. I don't see the need to bring back Belisle, or to offer a contract to Kintzler. Try Busenitz or Pressly or Hildenberger. Hope Chargois comes back. Have the loser be the chief setup guy with Rogers.

I would like to see them make roster space by departing with the Boshers and such.

Managers like to "simplify things" for themselves. Perhaps because they hate making decisions? Most (all?) like a defined 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guy rather than a number of "options" to insert in the game.  To that mix, the Twins seem wedded to a defined role for every pitcher--starter, closer, preferred set-up, other set-up guy,  LOOGY, long-guy, mop-up guy, extra LHP RP, etc. Hence rather than developing pitchers they are checking boxes. Result--the Twins will sign pitchers to check the boxes this off-season rather than focusing on who might be the best pitcher.

A quote from Perkins was something like a lot of players like defined roles so they can get mentally prepared.  Just because someone has a defined role at a lower pecking order than closer does not mean that developing them further is not going on, or being attempted. See Dusenitz for the developed, Boshers for the attempted.

Good Reliever = Fine Closer, except when it doesn't.  Ash pointed out the Ron Davis example, and LaTroy Hawkins is another one.  He went 14/14 in save opportunities in 2000, came in as the New Big Closer and promptly went 28/37.  He got moved to earlier situations and was great, so the Cubs signed him as closer.  25 saves in 34 chances.

I guess my advice is that once it's clear it isn't working, better move on rather than hope things change.

Get 5 reliable arms in the bullpen, then worry about who pitches the 9th.

While not everyone is up for the extra pressure of pitching the 9th, a proven closer is almost always an overpay. Few relievers hold down the closer title for more than a few years.

I like a few of the ideas here: Uehara, Kintzler, and others who are best in other roles but have experience when called upon. That feels like a good stopgap until someone else earns it.

Don't assume a minor leaguer will move straight to that role. Has it ever happened? I keep thinking of Rondon in DET.

I would like the team to sign a high-leverage reliever. I do not wish for them to pay extra for the "proven closer" tag. as long as "closer" is a term that describes a guy who comes in for the 9th (or occasionally the 10th) with no one on base to start the inning and pitches just 1 inning to rack up the not-terribly-meaningful stat of "saves", I'd rather not pay the extra freight.

It would probably be good for this staff to add a veteran reliever, considering a number of the power arms in the system are coming off injuries or are very young and fairly inexperienced. But it seems wasteful to add $4-6M to a guy's contract just to pitch in such a limited role. I want more fireman relievers who can and will come out with guys on base, with the heart of a team's lineup due up in the 7th, or something like that. That's where I'd rather spend the money. Closers come and go.

There are times in a ballgame where the 9th inning takes a back seat. For example, say the other team gets two on and no outs in the 7th with 3-4-5- coming up.  You put your best out there in that situation, don't you? Worry about the 9th later. 

"I would be surprised if they didn't resign Kintzler next year.  He likes it in Minnesota and i could see them working out a 2 year with option or 3 year contract.  If they can get Belisle on a 1 year deal again for around 3.5 to 4 million I would do that.  But in all seriousness, the Twins do need to sign a second reliever.  I do like the idea of signing Wade Davis and using Kintzler as a set up man.  That gives 3 different looks from Hildenburger the side armer to Kintzler the ground ball machine to Davis who overpowers hitters.  then we just need a good lefty.  (Tyler Jay.....)"

 

I am in the "go get Wade Davis" camp.  It will cost a ton but he is a great relief pitcher.  Mackey and Wetmore broke this down on their podcast recently and I am drinking this koolaid.  The chances that the Twins can get a top-level starter in the offseason are less but there is opportunity to have a power packed bullpen to start the year.  How would our BP look with Kinzler and Davis?  REALLY GOOD.  

They need a veteran player to be the closer, not necessarily a guy who has saved games in the past. Saves cost too much in arbitration to be giving them to rookies and inflating their salaries unnecessarily. Give saves to the cost-certain veterans.

If the Twins are at the point where they are not merely focused on making the playoffs, but on winning championships - there is no question that they need to have two to three elite bullpen arms.  

Starting at the closer spot down - you need shut down arms that pile up strikeouts and can go multiple innings.  

I fear the Yankees because they have Green, Robertson, Betances, Chapman, Kahnle.   These guys are dominant and will likely be central to their title runs for the next several years. 

Ideally these arms will ultimately emerge from within the organization. However, if we are going to compete next year - we will need to find proven arms through free agency and trades.  Kintzler is a start, but we need at least one more strong and proven arm, at some point, if we are going to be serious contenders.

Twins need big arms for the pen, I like Mcgee and Morrow spend some money on the top end.  They don't need a closer to pigeon hole into the 9th inning but they do need guys with closer stuff.

I would not want to stake my playoff chances on a Kintzler level arm. Don't get me wrong, he has value. But if he is the top of the pecking order for our pen, then I can't see the talent level showing much improvement. The best hope is that some of the MiLB guys make the next step. The odds of that are greater than the team spending the kind of money experienced talent would receive.

I think the Twins need some bullpen flexibility. Kintzler appears to be able to work middle relief and step in to take over the ninth inning in case of extended ineffectiveness by whomever is tagged as the ninth inning guy.

 

So, I think Kintzler should receive serious consideration.

 

And, Kintzler now has a valuable commodity: post-season experience. 

Agreed.  Kintzler is not your typically closer. He's not the guy I want in the 9th trying to close out the Yankees, in Yankee stadium.   As a backup, maybe.  The Twins need to add velocity to their bullpen.  They have no power arms, is somewhat embarrassing to say the least, especially when you see teams like New York, Chicago, Houston, and others, rolling out power arms.  Those guys are out there, there's no reason the Twins can't find them, scout them, or sign them. Kintzler will command too much money for not being a power arm, in my opinion.

Underwhelming is the word that comes to mind.  Go young - nothing else looks worth and investment.  Test the young arms, but not Pressly, he has consistently proved that he is Tonkin like when the big bats are up.