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  • Despite Research that Shows Otherwise, MLB Insists There Were No Changes to Postseason Baseballs


    Ted Schwerzler

    Whether you have been watching the postseason from inside a stadium or the friendly confines of your house, there’s been something fishy about the action. Did you notice that the Nationals and Dodgers game featured more than a few opportunities to rob a home run in game 5? How about that Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz could barely squeak their blasts out of Yankee Stadium in game 1? Well, it appears there’s something to it, and that’s not a good discovery for Major League Baseball.

    Image courtesy of © Adam C. Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

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    Data scientist and former FiveThirtyEight journalist Rob Arthur wrote a piece today for Baseball Prospectus. The premise was that the baseball teams played the game with all season is now gone, and that’s quite a damning revelation. If you don’t have access to a subscription at Baseball Prospectus, he did a nice job breaking it down to a bite-sized Twitter thread. The ball itself is causing more drag than it has at any point since 2016. Home runs are down more than 50%, and the playing field established for 162 games has now been abolished.

    https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans/status/1182286423833096192

    Arthur went on to clarify that weather is not the culprit for these outcomes. He stated that drag factors in both temperature and pressure, while also noting conditions have been more optimal than normal and don’t have a significant overall impact. Considering the research he provided, and the comments offered up by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, I began to think of specific examples.

    Earlier I mentioned thinking that something seemed off about that Dodgers and Nationals game to close out the National League Division Series. I didn’t dig in enough to see the amount of wall scrapers typically present on a game-by-game basis, but it certainly seemed abnormal. I did however consider that Will Smith at bat in the bottom of the 9th. His 100 mph exit velocity and 26-degree launch angle resulted in a fly out. During the regular season there was 75 similar occurrences of those inputs, and they resulted in 44 homers with an 83% base hit rate.

    https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1182363415228141574

    This is a Minnesota Twins website, so let’s bring things full circle here. Parker Hageman immediately turned to Monday’s game against the Yankees. I remembered thinking it was odd to see Gleyber Torres barely get out on a well struck ball, but it was Marwin Gonzalez’s blast that immediately looked gone and fell way short that got me. As Parker notes, the Twins 1B had his well struck ball become a pretty small outlier.

    https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1182366456899670016

    If we think back to game one, there were homers hit by both Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz that struck me as odd. Although the ball went out to the opposite field, power sluggers like those two rarely need every extra inch to reach the seats. In doing some research through MLB’s own Statcast service, the balls that left the yard in the Postseason traveled an average of 70 feet shorter than they same circumstances produced during the regular season.

    https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1182367265683058688

    All along, the expectation should’ve been that the sport would walk the baseball back. Despite the home run providing a level of excitement to the game (one that pace of play changes would seemingly be geared towards), Rob Manfred has publicly stated that inquiries would be made too many times for tools of the trade to go untouched. What strikes this writer as irresponsible, unfair, and downright disingenuous is to make these wholesale changes during the season.

    The point isn’t to suggest that the Twins or any other team is getting a raw deal because of the deadened baseball. What is fair is for players across the league, most importantly hitters, to have a level of frustration aimed at the governing body of their sport. As former pitcher Dallas Braden puts it, “The guy that deflated footballs in the NFL was drug over the coals by the commissioner of the NFL for altering the sports’ ball. What do WE do when it’s THE COMMISSIONER altering balls like some MAD plastic surgeon? Let the man snip & shape as he sees fit, no issues?”

    I’ll never have a problem with seasons being analyzed separately as not all factors remain the same as the calendar changes. I do think you’ve got a significant problem when the integrity of a collective season is being manipulated at the drop of a hat.

    Because of this uproar Major League Baseball has now issued a statement on the situation. Unfortunately it does little to address any of the actual problems and avoids any statements that point to real reasons why there's such drastic changes in results.

    https://twitter.com/BizballMaury/status/1182385320311963649

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    Would that many people be involved though? I can’t imagine they need a whole division to order baseballs. I picture George Costanza who reports to some one else who has additional duties (that’d be Mr.Wilhelm obviously). No idea if this un-juiced ball theory has anything behind it, but it would seem like a 2-3 person conspiracy most likely.

    it takes a lot of people to run a factory supply chain. Engineer/Lab, Quality, supply chain, sourcing, logistics.

     

    Those factories probably make more than just MLB and MiLB balls too. Retail, college, high school, softballs. Materials from all over the world....

     

    Even a slight change in the ball would require dozens of people to be involved. Most of them unaware of the aerodynamic properties of a baseball in flight.

     

    However with leather being sourced from most likely China but manufacturing in Costa Rica, you could maybe do a production experiment to get balls for the post season if you started in April.

     

    6 months is very fast for a change like that in an experimental fashion, but not impossible. It would be very expensive.

     

    This is all to say, Falvine knew of the new baseball for 2019 this time last year. At that point manufacturing for many or all of 2019 was already done. This new change was probably already in the works even then.

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    Well Ruth would probably strike out 300 times having never seen a modern slider or a 95 MPH fastball in his life.

    But that obviously just reinforces the same point.

    Good take, but I suspect that Ruth would have grown up with the same advantages as today's athletes and would have enjoyed sending those 95 mph fastballs out of numerous stadiums and might have put the HR record into outer space.  

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    So.... On more than one occasion I was astonished a fly ball was easily caught in the twins Yankee series. Not just twins either... An altered ball would change the entire game, not just home runs.

    Twins should dive into this.... and sue for lost wages if they think they can prove it. After watching the division series, an altered ball would explain a lot.

     

    Sue for lost wages? The Twins were outscored 23-7 in the series, and hit one HR less than the Yankees. Were both teams' batters facing the same baseballs?

     

    We need to move on from this.

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    Totally expected something like this to come next year (though it seems a bit too much), but it can’t happen between the regular and post season.

    Why? As long as they use the same balls for both teams I don’t see the problem.

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    By comparison, Manfred is a baseball lifer (20-30 years now) and MLB probably doesn't have the same kind of silent, behind-the-curtain committee controlling things behind him. Not to mention the difference in size/scope of MLB and NPB, or the USA and Japan.

     

    Committee? No. Behind the scenes stuff that never sees the light of public? Absolutely.

     

    Gabe Kapler should be sitting in prison right now and should never work again in baseball, but things told to the commish's office were never moved beyond there and nothing was ever pressed legally, so here we sit.

     

    Executives still are intentionally excluding applicants due to race/gender/other social groupings. The game knows it, but until someone goes to a private lawyer and the civil courts on the issue, nothing will happen as complaints to the league office tend to end with hush money or a position with another team that's more welcoming.

     

    This stuff happens in the game constantly and doesn't get out simply because there's not enough there to really do a full expose style story on it. One thing I have had confirmed from other viewers of the same program is that MLB Network's morning show leaked that the ball would be different in the playoffs in a discussion about what ball would be used in the Arizona Fall League. While the majority of the show repeats in the second hour, that particular segment oddly did not, and it was cut off in a weird way as it happened as well. I've searched and searched for any clip of that segment to no avail, but two fellow watchers of the same program confirmed seeing the same segment, so it's not just my conspiracy brain at work.

     

    I do struggle with even using that word, though. When the commish has made enemies of the owners and the players because of unilateral moves to the game emanating from his office, is changing the ball without notice really a conspiracy or simply the next unilateral move?

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    We'll never know, but I believe Ruth had the talent to adapt to such pitches and succeed. He was far superior to every other batter of his time and I think the same would be true if he played in the modern game.

     

    Those who faced Ruth and players of color in the era stated that while Ruth was among the best in the game at the time, there were multiple hitters whose skin never allowed them to play in the major leagues that were superior hitters, especially when reviewing Ruth's performance against similar Negro Leagues pitchers.

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    Why? As long as they use the same balls for both teams I don’t see the problem.

     

    Teams construct their roster based upon how the ball played in the regular season. A team that couldn't buy a hit in the regular season (Cardinals) got numerous hits on sub-70 MPH exit velocity balls that had very odd hops down the line. Teams whose offense focused around the lively ball suddenly had balls dying that scored runs a week prior. It essentially negates all the regular season was as far as team-building.

     

    I've been able to secure two pitchers who said the ball moved significantly different for them on the mound in the playoffs versus regular season. Neither is ready to go on record yet about it, but in the 2017 postseason, the same ball that would suddenly start flying out of stadiums in mid-2018 caused Verlander to gripe publicly and Darvish to go from the Dodgers' savior for the final two months of the year to completely useless in the World Series as his slider wouldn't break due to what he and Verlander both reported were lower seams.

     

    Changing the ball that significantly for the postseason is akin to telling teams that their work in team construction is all useless.

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    Committee? No. Behind the scenes stuff that never sees the light of public? Absolutely.

     

    Gabe Kapler should be sitting in prison right now and should never work again in baseball, but things told to the commish's office were never moved beyond there and nothing was ever pressed legally, so here we sit.

    Obviously there are still secrets everywhere, but the scope of Kapler's secret, or even Skaggs' secret, was pretty narrow at the time it occurred. That's not the case with changing the ball, which is in plain sight affecting everyone, all the time.

     

    The previously mentioned Japanese juiced ball of 2013 didn't last 3 months before the "conspiracy" came tumbling down.

     

    Meanwhile, this journalist (Rob Arthur) has apparently suggested repeated changes to the MLB baseball (juicing, de-juicing, repeat) starting in 2015. So if it was intentional, Manfred's apparently kept it all under his hat for 5 seasons and counting. And of course, Arthur is better able to discern these changes now thanks to Statcast data, which coincidentally MLB started providing free to the public in 2015 -- which would be a silly thing to do, if one was trying to surreptitiously and simultaneously change the properties of the baseball!

     

    https://apnews.com/89a4cc0c0e97431f8ac34ebc13311bf6

     

    I'm starting to wonder if there have always been variations in these properties of the ball, just due to the vagaries of manufacture and storage, but they just weren't detectable before now. Maybe the 2019 ball is still an outlier, but just not an intentional one.

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    Teams construct their roster based upon how the ball played in the regular season. A team that couldn't buy a hit in the regular season (Cardinals) got numerous hits on sub-70 MPH exit velocity balls that had very odd hops down the line. Teams whose offense focused around the lively ball suddenly had balls dying that scored runs a week prior. It essentially negates all the regular season was as far as team-building.

     

    I've been able to secure two pitchers who said the ball moved significantly different for them on the mound in the playoffs versus regular season. Neither is ready to go on record yet about it, but in the 2017 postseason, the same ball that would suddenly start flying out of stadiums in mid-2018 caused Verlander to gripe publicly and Darvish to go from the Dodgers' savior for the final two months of the year to completely useless in the World Series as his slider wouldn't break due to what he and Verlander both reported were lower seams.

     

    Changing the ball that significantly for the postseason is akin to telling teams that their work in team construction is all useless.

    This kind of stuff is near useless as evidence of anything, and is going to get your arguments dismissed as sour grapes. There's luck and randomness all over in baseball. What kind of ball allowed Mark Lemke to achieve his 1991 World Series results, or Lonnie Smith to hit 3 HR vs Ron Gant's zero?

     

    And your language is over-the-top: Darvish was effective but hardly a savior in LA, and hasn't it been thoroughly shown that the Astros figured out he was tipping his pitches? The same thing just happened to Glasnow.

     

    Here's two pitchers who were convinced the 2002 World Series ball was juiced too:

    http://static.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark_jayson/1449183.html

     

    (Also, as an aside, I'm pretty sure I could get more than two players to talk about the performance-enhancing effects of their necklaces, but it doesn't make it true. :) )

     

    That said, the ball could be very well different now, but that's not evidence of an intentional act to do so. I'd say MLB needs to be more aggressive and transparent about quality control in production, transportation, and storage of the ball, and that's probably where the fan focus should be, rather than ramping up the rhetoric of conspiracies and accusations.

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    When the commish has made enemies of the owners and the players because of unilateral moves to the game emanating from his office, is changing the ball without notice really a conspiracy or simply the next unilateral move?

    It’s not hard for me to believe that “everybody knew” the balls were going to be different, but also that no one anticipated the balls would be that much deader than the regular season baseballs. I agree it’s a problem. The Twins maybe would have started Odorizzi in Yankees Stadium, I think, had the Twins known for sure.

     

    But I don’t understand in what ways the commissioner is the enemy of the owners?

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    Sounds like baseball's version of deflate gate. You would think that the balls would have to meet a very specific measurable standard period. The fact that evidently they don't speaks for itself. All that is needed would be an Iron Byron baseball batter to hit different balls off a tee and observe the results.

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    Early in the season I stumbled on a link concerning a professor at Washington State, IIRC, who was asked to do research on the 2019 ML baseball. (No, sorry, I don't have the link). While testing was not complete, and results not to be made public until complete and turned over to the MLB powers that be, early returns suggested lower seams that produced less drag, thus greater hitting/travel distance.

     

    Baseball itself made comments earlier in the year there was no altering of the baseball, but they felt better, more consistent manufacturing techniques could create small variations in the construction. A more centered pill, tighter-lower seams, etc.

     

    So is there a conspiracy? Or is it a different ball for the playoffs due to weather, a different batch made at a different time and stored differently?

     

    Personally, I don't see a conspiracy. I see variations of factors creating variations in performance. You'd think, if anything, MLB would want the HR ball while so much attention is being focused on them for exciting ratings purposes.

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    Early in the season I stumbled on a link concerning a professor at Washington State, IIRC, who was asked to do research on the 2019 ML baseball. (No, sorry, I don't have the link). While testing was not complete, and results not to be made public until complete and turned over to the MLB powers that be, early returns suggested lower seams that produced less drag, thus greater hitting/travel distance.

     

    Baseball itself made comments earlier in the year there was no altering of the baseball, but they felt better, more consistent manufacturing techniques could create small variations in the construction. A more centered pill, tighter-lower seams, etc.

     

    So is there a conspiracy? Or is it a different ball for the playoffs due to weather, a different batch made at a different time and stored differently?

     

    Personally, I don't see a conspiracy. I see variations of factors creating variations in performance. You'd think, if anything, MLB would want the HR ball while so much attention is being focused on them for exciting ratings purposes.

    Or... The mlb feared the Twins lineup so much they had to change the balls. Don't underestimate how much everyone hates the twins.

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