Could the Twins Weather the Blowback of a Luis Arraez Trade?

I'm not in love with Arraez like most on this board. If they can get good value for him, move him. His knees are never going to get any better....

Arraez plays the DH better than anyone else on the roster. His contact skills approach Boggs/Gwynn/Carew territory. When is the last time the Twins had a prospect like that? Mauer likely.

I don't know the extent of his knee issue, but I have to believe that at 24 years old there is still some physical development possible to improve his knees and maybe add power in the process. He is a proven hitter in MLB with an elite eye. Too many of the "can't miss" prospects become AAAA players. I'd keep the hitting savant.

To shop for pitching I'd prefer seeing JD packaged with a "stud" minor league prospect who hasn't proven anything in the bigs yet, add Kepler if needed.

Yes, they should trade Arraez but if they do as bad trading him as they did LaMonte Wade there will be grumbling. 

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Arraez is my favorite player and I say trade him.  As a man with bad knees (even after replacement) I see a real issue for him.  He is the Tony Oliva of this era,

Arraez is as much like Oliva as Sano is like Molitor.

9 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Depends on what we get back but I expect that the Twins will trade either him or Polanco this offseason. It just makes too much sense. 

Sure makes sense to me.  I love Arraez but I would much prefer to keep Polanco.  His wRC+ was 19 points higher than Arraez and I fear those knees.  The problem I see is that the type of team (contender) that would trade for Arraez is unlikely to trade away an impact SP.  They are going to offer prospects.  Sure, there are exceptions but how often to Contenders trade good pitching and a rebuilding club is not going to be interested.  By the time they are good, Arraez will be approaching free agency.

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Arraez should be traded this off-season before any trade value he has goes away. He has no power, no speed. no defensive position and he has been injured too often. He could be easily replaced by any one of several players with more upside as a defender or hitter or both. I don't think he will be one of those players that we (the fans) will look back on and say "if only the Twins had kept him."

Are you watching the same player? Arraez stats are;

'19 =  Batted .334 4HR, 1 3B and 20 2B in 92 games of fill in work

'20 = Batted .321 although no HR's had 9 2B in 32 games of a 60 game season.

'21 = Batted .294 2HR, 6 3B and 17 2B in 121 games!

Maybe not a ton of power, but he gets on base. He doesn't have a starting position, but that is because the team won't give him one. Remember, he is a true 2B and stuck behind Polanco.

Can I remind everyone that during the same timespan, Buxton played in games of: 87, 39 and 61 (187) compared to Arraez playing 245 games! Buxton is supposed to be our starting CF'er with Arraeaz, a utility man,  bouncing around giving people breaks. Buxton just got paid and we are talking about Arraez not being worth keeping...?

He's more valuable than being a utility player. The only way to keep him is as a stopgap, if you move Polanco to short and play Arraez at second. Or if you want him to be your leftfielder NOW.

Otherwise, his next best position might be third, but you should give Miranda the chance to play that position. He is only good in left because he can get on base, but could quickly be replaced by almost anyone else for defense and power as the season progresses.

If Polanco is the one-year stopgap at short, then you face the question about what to do with Arraez for 2023, if Lewis or Martin progress. 

The Twins have so many questions. What does Donaldson bring to the team now and do you move him. How bad is an infield with Polanco and Arraez up the middle, and does it matter if you aren't winning and basically trying out pitchers. Is he a strength in getting a good return if combined with another player (Kepler, Garver, Sano, Donaldson) and/or a prospect.

I sadly don't see Arraez holding up over the long haul, but feel he can carve a nice career with a lowend team, and can slide into the utility role as he ages and you have the roster flexibility. But right now, he will keep getting more expensive the more he plays, until he becomes a free agent because you won't pay his arbitration wants in salary.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The problem I see is that the type of team (contender) that would trade for Arraez is unlikely to trade away an impact SP. 

This encapsulates the problem with trading Arraez.. 

Imagine Twins fans reaction to a hypothetical trade for someone like Berrios with the return being a singles hitter who may be a defensive liability and has bad knees.

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Trade them for what? Seriously ... do you expect to bring back pitching that will amount to anything, which is what we need? Honestly, this is really short-sighted. We don't know if Miranda will be major league capable, and yes, we need to get him in there. The time to trade Donaldson is mid-season if both he and Miranda are performing. Sano ... I have no answer for that one, but he will bring back nothing of need in a trade. 

I would argue keeping Donaldson is short-sighted. He spends almost as much time on the DL as Buxton, gets "injured" just exercising, his salary would more than cover the salaries for Arraez, Miranda and Kirilloff combined, all of whom will be under team control longer than Donaldson and with Donaldson completely out of the picture we won't have to worry about Rocco letting Miranda sit on the bench for a month without getting an opportunity to play. Sano is sort of similar, keeping him on the team blocks Arraez and Garver from DHing, both of whom I'd rather see come to bat with runners on base than Sano, and his absence opens up first for Kirilloff. As to what we could get back in trade, if we acknowledge that other teams aren't willing to accept Sano in trade, why would we want to keep him? Can the Twins be the only team that finds value in him?

Salary dump that can be used for pitching, clearing the path for younger players that may well be the future (2023) and giving more at bats to better, more consistent, hitters.

To me, that's long-term thinking. 

Boy, this topic generated a lot of discussion.  I think it is difficult to say "trade" or "don't trade" about any player except for generational talents who you clearly need to keep and mean a lot to a franchise, like Puckett for example.  Otherwise, I think in the end it all depends on what value comes back in return.  Trading Arraez (or Polanco) could be a great trade if what the Twins get back in return makes them a better team and the strengths the traded player brought to the team can be replaced by someone else.  For example, could Martin bring the same on base skills to the team as Arraez?  On the other hand, if the return doesn't make the team better for at least a couple of years, the trade is not a good one.  Simply, it all depends on the specifics of the trade.

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Trade them for what? Seriously ... do you expect to bring back pitching that will amount to anything, which is what we need? Honestly, this is really short-sighted. We don't know if Miranda will be major league capable, and yes, we need to get him in there. The time to trade Donaldson is mid-season if both he and Miranda are performing. Sano ... I have no answer for that one, but he will bring back nothing of need in a trade. 

Trading JD isn't about the bring back, it is about salary relief on a team rebuilding with youth. If we aren't signing or trading for some quality starting pitching (and it looks like we aren't), then you move the old and overpaid. If Donaldson struggles or gets hurt early, you get zero for him at the trade deadline. 

A blow-back from whom, how?

The head office cares about attendance dollars, not on-line opinions.

1 hour ago, Kipp35 said:

Are you watching the same player? 

Yes, are you?

His 3 year splits are trending the wrong way:

'19  -  .334/399/.439

'20  -  .321/.364/.402

'21  -  .294/.357/.376

AVG down 40 points, OBP down 42 points and SLG down 63 points. And he has bad knees, which will not get better as he gets older.

Buxton's (your comparison) 3 year splits are trending up:

'19  -  .262/.314/.513

'20  -  .254/.267/.577

'21  -  .306/.358./647

I don't think his numbers will stay at the '21 level, but probably somewhere around the 3 year average - .277/.321/.575. And Buxton's injuries have not included bad knees, but have nonetheless limited his playing time.

Gordon, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, or FA signings such as Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison or Matt Duffy  could step in and do what Arraez does.

A note on Arraez's value, and maybe this is where @Nick Nelson and I disagree, is that he is a Super 2 and has four years of team control left, not three. That is certainly a component of why I would put him at 5 or 6 on the Assets list instead of 11.

That said, I am wide open to trading him if the Twins brass can get appropriate value for him. With Martin not far from the majors, the Twins have a reasonable replacement for his offensive production coming soon.

You trade from a position of strength, and from my perspective, the Twins have plenty of options to fill Arraez's role. I enjoy watching him, but if he is part of a trade package that brings back a decent SP, it just makes sense. 

Put Arraez at DH. Problem of defensive deficiencies is solved. He is an "on base machine".  Then when he hits .350, and scores 100 runs, trade him for a good return  to a team that values a very good hitter at DH (which will probably include the AL and the NL teams next year). I close by asking this question: With Buck standing on first base and two outs and the game on the line, would you rather have Arraez at bat or any of the other choices the Twins currently have for DH (Sano being the current most popular choice) ? 

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Yes, are you?

His 3 year splits are trending the wrong way:

'19  -  .334/399/.439

'20  -  .321/.364/.402

'21  -  .294/.357/.376

AVG down 40 points, OBP down 42 points and SLG down 63 points. And he has bad knees, which will not get better as he gets older.

Buxton's (your comparison) 3 year splits are trending up:

'19  -  .262/.314/.513

'20  -  .254/.267/.577

'21  -  .306/.358./647

I don't think his numbers will stay at the '21 level, but probably somewhere around the 3 year average - .277/.321/.575. And Buxton's injuries have not included bad knees, but have nonetheless limited his playing time.

Gordon, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, or FA signings such as Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison or Matt Duffy  could step in and do what Arraez does.

Unless you are the orthopedist Arraez has seen, you can't attest to his knee's won't get better, or not. As for stats trending in the wrong direction; Villar can only hit HR's, and if he doesn't hit one, he doesn't get on base:

'19 = .274/.339/.453

'20 = .232/.301/.292

'21 = .249/.322/.416

He may be more durable as he has played vast majority of the past three seasons, but he is not a pure hitter.

Josh Harrison:

'19 = .175/.218/.263

'20 = .278/.352/.418

'21 = .279/.341/.400

Better than Villar, but still no where near what you call the wrong way trending stats of .294/.357/.376... plus, his stats could only trend up (.179 AVG?)

Matt Duffy

Stats are a lot better than the others you mentioned, but still have never had a season that shows he a as pure a hitter as Arraez. With his three best seasons:

'15 = .295/.334/.428

'18 = .294/.361/.366

'21 = .287/.357/.381

Still nothing that jumps off the page and I had to pick and choose what seasons to add for him; as the others are not good at all. Maybe we could give him a long term deal and keeping with the trend of every three years, hope for good things in '24, '27 and '30 (he'd only be 39 at that point).

Arraez is on the team, now. He is under contract and will not cost the team the contracts it would take to get any of the guys you listed. Why are we going to pay more money for a guy to come in and put up lower stats (except maybe HR's) if we have a guy on the roster, right now, that can do the job and do it well? We already threw bad money [my opinion] at Buxton and now need to find another guy who can play 100+ games per season at CF. We don't need to jettison Arraez in order to bring in a higher priced, older guy that needs to prove something. That is poor management of a team.... on second thought, that is exactly what the Twins will do. I stand corrected. Please disregard everything I said.

30 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I still think, no ... the time to trade Donaldson is mid-season, especially if he's doing well and we're not. Miranda will have his opportunities going between the Twins and the Saints to start the year, unless we move Arraez. Donaldson was/is a big part of our offense. You cannot expect Miranda to just step into that  ... RoY if he does, but that is not something you can expect. You keep Donaldson to start the season. Frankly, I really think these discussions that Miranda is the 'next coming for 3rd base' are premature. Let him get his feet wet at the big league level first, then decide what to do with JD, not before, and potentially be left with a gaping hole. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it!  

Your argument is not without merit. ? Should be fun watching this unfold as the season progresses. If the season progresses...

I think Arraez is valuable as both a player for the Twins and as trade material. I also think both those things will likely be true at the trade deadline as well; by which time we might have a better idea about whether or not we really have a quality replacement.

I've long held the opinion teams can trade any player and it won't matter a bit to the fans when it comes to putting butts in the seats or revenue to the team based on what's happened after the Twins saw the departure of some of the recently most popular players.

• 1996 - Kirby Puckett was gone, attendance was up.
• 2008 - Torii Hunter & Johan Santana were gone, attendance was up.
• 2019 - Joe Mauer was gone, attedance was up.

There are some instances of course where attendance was down (Hrbek, Cuddyer, Morneau), but it's not like it fell off a cliff or something. Bottom line? In my opinion, fans are fans of the team, not the individual players so fans will almost always find a new favorite player.

Arraez or Polanco. One of them really should be traded. Based on just how good Polanco has been over the past 3 years combined, he has to be considered a bonefide All Star caliber player and he's still inexpensive with multiple years of team control.

Arraez still has some question marks due to his knees and conditioning. Doctors told Arraez to lose weight and do squats to strengthen his legs and improve his knee health. He didn't, he missed a bunch of games and slumped down the stretch. I love the type of game Arraez brings to baseball. He makes a lot of solid, line drive contact which makes the game more exciting to watch, but there are question marks and he's redudant on the roster if the Twins keep Polanco.

Arraez is horrible against left-hand pitchers so stop with the pure hitter spiel, but I am surprised he was horrid at 2nd base his first year but this year was pretty good there, while at 3rd he was below average where he once was simply average.  If they keep him, keep him as a back-up to Polanco at second.

Putting him at third with some mediocre newbie at SS will have opponents salivating with chances to raise their batting average.

All this talk of possibly trading Arraez is based on the assumption that the front office would "win" the trade.  If you lose the trade, we would all agree it was a bust.  Has anyone paid attention to the "win" percentage of this front office?  They ran this team into the ground (last place in baseball's worst division) and you expect to see something different?  I don't get it.