Could the Twins Weather the Blowback of a Luis Arraez Trade?

Any blowback would be determined by the bring back.

Arraez is a special player/competitor, but given where things now stand trading him for SP may be the move the Twins' FO has to make. (Would be disappointed to see him go, but even more disappointed if the pitching is poor and the Twins' fail to be in contention again.)

Arraez should be traded this off-season before any trade value he has goes away. He has no power, no speed. no defensive position and he has been injured too often. He could be easily replaced by any one of several players with more upside as a defender or hitter or both. I don't think he will be one of those players that we (the fans) will look back on and say "if only the Twins had kept him."

Anybody is tradeable, depends on the return. Of middle IF's, Polanco could bring better return, just depeds on what someone else is willing to give, and how well that fills a need on our end.

I disagree. Baseball is a business and the objective isn't to win games, but to keep the fan base engaged for the whole of 162. A disengaged fan base will hurt potential streaming and other advertising ventures. I like prospects too, but what are the odds they can replicate his BA and OBP. As for defense, I think he has been good since he doesn't get to focus on one position. I'd keep him unless somehow you could get a Julio Urias for him.

Only way this is a good option is if they get more in return than what he already delivers. He's a good proven big league hitter. He'd have to bring a good proven big league pitcher in return. Donaldson's big contract makes trading Arraez over Donaldson a better option to other clubs. Not sure it is the better option for the Twins though. Arraez and Miranda at 3B might be a good combo until Miranda becomes that same good proven big league hitter.

Arraez is my favorite player and I say trade him.  As a man with bad knees (even after replacement) I see a real issue for him.  He is the Tony Oliva of this era, but that said, his trade value is best now with his knees still functioning, his bat still elite, and a positive attitude that would be an asset for any team.  Of course the flip side as other commenters have said is the return.  Our needs are SS and P.  A trade has to address this.

Like Arraez also but we have replacements that are capable for what he brings.

If he can help land pitching that helps us ...let it be. 

As much as I hate to be the pessimist among us, I have a hard time getting fired up one way or the other when it comes to this, or any other trade.  I like Arraez; he is a good hitter who doesn't give a rats butt what his launch angle is, he just tries to get on base and score runs.  He does get on base, and it is a nice thing to have at the top of the lineup.  As for trading him, I would only do so for decent starting pitching, but, again, I can't get too excited one way or the other, as I don't believe this FO is going to make any meaningful trades during this off season.  They are counting on the CBA being completed, and the fan base just being happy that baseball didn't kill itself and will try to get by with a relatively inexpensive year to make up for recent losses, and see what they have in their rookie pool before doing something more major next year, either in trades or free agent signings.  Could be wrong, I have been before; as a matter of fact, I can still remember the time I was.    But that is how it looks from my perch up here.  I will try to keep a good thought, and I will certainly miss the man if he goes, but I will also not hold my breath.  Here is hoping for baseball this spring!

I don’t see Arraez as redundant and admit I like a player with lead off skills. Yes, on the defensive side he is redundant but not on the offensive side. He brings skills that most of our players and prospects don’t. Trade someone with power who strikes out a lot (Sano, cough cough). We seem to have a surplus of those players and prospects. Yes, he would bring back more in return but I continue to think a trade for a SP is going to be someone less established than a Castillo or Montas.

Trade Donaldson and Sano. Keep Arraez. Think long term. Old guys out, young guys in.

Donaldson and Arraez both have bad wheels but Arraez is about a bazillion dollars cheaper. Take the "savings" from trading Donaldson and spend it on signing a pitcher not currently residing in a dumpster.

With both Donaldson and Sano gone you have room for Miranda and a guaranteed spot for Kirilloff at first and DH open for Garver when he's not catching. When Garver is behind the plate plug in any other player that Rocco wants to "rest".

I love everything Arraez brings to the Twins.  But your post offers very interesting questions, Nick, as usual.  Thanks!

If the Twins were mine, I would want to keep Arraez as a primary DH who is the #1 backup at second and third.  He should be in left field, IMO, only in emergencies.  But I also want his bat at the top of the order 140 or 150 games a year.  But then I appreciate people getting on base more so than others.

If traded will I be disappointed?  Yes.  And if they do, he better be part of a package that brings back one heck of a young starting pitcher with at least three years of team control.

There will be fans regardless. Trading Arraez will give the complainers 2 more things to complain about. One they traded him, two that player’s deficiencies.  

Trade either Arraez or Polanco, then making the other our regular second baseman.   The Twins are awash in quality infielders (other than proven defensive shortstops), so cash in that surplus to bolster other areas of greater need (starting pitching!!!).   Donaldson and Sano do not have the trade value of Polanco or Arraez. 

50 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

ftfy

That's the cynic in me. To keep the fanbase engaged requires two things ... players fans want to root for and a winning team. Without pitching doubtful the latter will happen. While Arraez is a fan favorite, so are Polanco, Buxton, Donaldson (at least for me), Garver, Ryan and Ober ... and I think some of the up and comers could fill that void, too ... Miranda, for one. 

But I think the common point most, including you, are making ... depends on the return. And it does.

 

Cynically, if teams were not making money there would be no professional baseball 

I don't think they have to trade Arraez this year but given the Glute of second baseman coming up in the system (Martin, Steer, Jullien, Severino, possibly Miranda) not to mention Polanco is entrenched there and we have Gordon and Arraez to play there.  The Twins have more depth at 2nd than almost any other position.  

I would hate to see one of my favorite players leave but if the return was good enough there probably is no time like the present to trade him.

I pay the most attention to Twins games during Arraez's at-bats because they are enjoyable and the ball is usually in play so there is action. He is about the only Twin who keeps the defense honest by spraying the ball all over the field. With so many of his teammates, the outcomes are predictably boring to watch: strikeout, walk, flyball, grounder into the shift, homerun.

If he's gone, will I watch at all?

Are these Twins realistically positioned to compete in 2022 for a WS as built? We’d all like to think so, but c’mon be truthful.

If not, are these Twins only a player or two away from being in that position? Again, anything is possible, but, with how we appear to be rebuilding our staff, be realistic. 

If not, should we trade declining assets or improving assets as we look to build a team to get into that position in 2023 and beyond?

Also, as a mid market team, should we trade high priced declining assets or low priced improving assets - especially if the former at this point in time should have stronger trade demand?

The realistic, rational answers are no, no, declining and high priced. 
 

So the person who should be traded is JD and we keep LA unless we know his knees make him a declining asset (which I do not believe is true) in which case you trade them both.

JD was brought in (btw in a smart, bold move IMHO), to be the key FA cog in getting us playoff victories. That’s what midmarket teams with good owners (like our beloved Twins) do when the FO feels a solid window exists. And the opposite is true as well - they shed the expensive declining assets who will not be around when the next window is open in order to save the cash for a new cog FA and provide opportunity to up and coming players whom they feel may be part of that new window. 
 

JD should be moved - preferably during the off-season (but certainly before the trade deadline) after the universal DH is approved and off of his strong 2021 second half and before his inevitable drop off becomes more apparent. LA and Miranda platoon at 3rd base - both of them can still be considered to be likely important pieces of a new window opening as early as 2023, while JD cannot.  Btw, I think the data indicate that defensively there really isn’t much difference between LA and JD at this point (i.e., that JD is a top defensive 3B is more of a myth now), but I could be wrong about that. 
 

And depending on how Larnach, Lewis, Martin, Celestine, and Wallner develop, Max may be next if he doesn’t up his game. 

Oh, also btw for what it’s worth, I read a lot of comments on the TD about how valuable JD is and a lot of comments about how he won’t have any trade demand.  They seem incongruent. 
 

Could JD truly be worth so much only to the Twins and no other team? I don’t think so. Not in 2022. JD is a really, really good baseball player who will be more valuable to a team looking for that FA pickup to get over the hump (especially with the universal DH) than he will be to the Twins at his price and position over the next two years. 
 

I think he’s good and can be moved - and for more value ($ adjusted) than LA.  

I agree that we need pitching, but if the FO didn't pursue relatively affordable FA SP I have a hard time seeing them trading a young core member. Besides Buxton, Luis is the most entertaining player IMO.

I honestly don't think even trading for a SP would make the Twins competitive, there is too much uncertainty. Now we could trade for multiple pitchers, but that won't let us see what the minor league guys have and the pitching pipeline is probably the key deliverable the Pohlads will judge the FO success.

I'd possible I'd trade Miranda if the return could be similar

The Berrios trade coupled with no interest in free agents this Oct/Nov tells me we are going with what we have. If we are going with what we have, we try to trade JD - and with a universal DH - I think we find a National league taker. I keep Arraez, and he bats leadoff - and he primarily DH's, and backs up 2nd and 3rd. Youth movement for us, especially if we have a partial season I think.

I would trade Polanco because of the Bringback; keep Arraez, Miranda, Martin, Gordon to play 2B; JD, Miranda to play 3B (Sano sometimes); Lewis, Martin to play SS

Get a quality SP for Polanco (love the bat, but his trade value is at the highest right now; ie he isn't injured)

Then I'd try to trade Kepler

I love the "youthful exuberance" of some of these players, Arraez especially