Could the Twins Weather the Blowback of a Luis Arraez Trade?

So the alternative is not to do anything because this FO is lousy ??  I'll agree, I lack a certain degree of confidence in this FO given that they've completely failed in 2 of their 5 years.  But inaction is inertia and without any movement, we're right back in last place.  The trading of Arraez is something I've often suggested on TD with various trade offers.  Everyone knows that despite him being one of my favorite players, I'm earnestly suggesting trading him for pitching.  I don't think the Twins would miss him at all given the young talent ready to take his place and the DIRE need to upgrade our pitching staff.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order and give him 550 AB's anyway.  Arraez probably hit 6th as much as he hit leadoff of 2nd in the lineup.  

As was stated right off the bat, it all depends on what you get for him.  But isn't that the case with ANY trade ??  And there is NEVER a guarantee that the trade will work out.  NEVER.  If there was, do you think the Cubs would have traded Lou Brock to the Cardinals for Ernie Broglio ?  Or the Dodgers Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields ??  

To those clamoring to trade Donaldson or Sano, I understand your desire, but I think MLB Trade Values is a great site to play around with trades to see what the relative "cost" would be.  It's not perfect, but what is ?  It at least gives you an idea of what could work or what would never work.  Here are some values of Twins players in a trade.  Keep in mind that Donaldson and Sano are NEGATIVE trade values, meaning that in order to move them, you either have to take back someone else's bad contract or accept entirely fringe prospects.

Arraez  27.9  Polanco 31.6  Larnach  22.6  Kepler  23.6  Sano -7.1  Balazovic 14.5  Jhoan Duran 6.9  Donaldson -19.1 Austin Martin 30.8  Jeffers 19.2  Kiriloff 37.0  Miranda  11.7  Rooker 1.9  Sabato 3.0.

I listed a bunch to give you an idea of each players relative value.  Now lets look at some trade values for the Miami Marlins to give additional perspective and to create a trade.

T. Rogers 96.7  Alacantara 75.3  Pablo Lopez 57.1 (25 yrs old)  Sixto Sanchez 30.0 (23 yrs old)   Max Meyer 22.2  Jesus luzardo 10.0 (23 yrs old) Cabrera 14.9 (23 yrs old).  You can easily see we can't afford Rogers, Alcantara or Lopez.  Just too expensive.  And if I'm the Marlins, those are my core pitchers I'm hanging on to and building around.  

So lets say the Twins want to acquire Sixto Sanchez.  He's very talented but not one of the BIG THREE. 

Marlins get:  Arraez 27.9 and either Larnach 22.6 or Kepler 23.6.  Trade value is either 51.5 or 50.5 depending on if we traded Larnach or Kepler.

Twins Get:  Sixto Sanchez  30.0 and Max Meyer 22.2  Total 52.2 .  

The Twins are not giving up enough.  To acquire two young pitchers from the Marlins, I think the Twins would need to slightly overpay, so adding Sabato 3.0 or Rooker 1.9 makes a slight overpay and a workable trade.  Possibly the Twins include a pitcher like Strotman if the Marlins want to add an arm back instead of all bats.  

The Marlins do this because they have a glut of young arms but desperately need offense.  Arraez provides a top of the order bat who would primarily play 2B but also provides versatility.  They get an OF bat with either Kepler or Larnach and they either add a power bat/future DH (Sabato or Rooker) or a future BP arm in Strotman.  All players with the exception of Kepler are young and cheap for the future with the exception of Kepler, who is still on a very team friendly contract.  

The Twins get two young arms in Sanchez and Meyer.  Sanchez would open the season in the Twins rotation.  Meyer would be added to the LONG list of Twins pitchers who could make a mid-season debut.  

If this was the trade that involved Arraez I'd be on board.  

17 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I disagree, strongly. First, are we in a full-blown rebuild? Second, the time to move JD is midseason, especially if both he and Miranda are having strong seasons. 

I hope we are not in full-blown rebuild, but I am speculating we are, and if we are, why would JD make sense on this team? If we go into April with our current starting pitching, signing or trading for no one, than we are in re-build in my opinion. You'll never get Falvey to admit rebuild. Bundy doesn't exactly signal we're going for it. Not giving Berrios the contract the Jays gave him doesn't exactly signal we're going for it. Not competing for any free agents in Oct/Nov doesn't exactly signal we're going for it. I gather we are rebuilding, and/or preparing for a partial season. 

58 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

So lets say the Twins want to acquire Sixto Sanchez.  He's very talented but not one of the BIG THREE. 

Marlins get:  Arraez 27.9 and either Larnach 22.6 or Kepler 23.6.  Trade value is either 51.5 or 50.5 depending on if we traded Larnach or Kepler.

Twins Get:  Sixto Sanchez  30.0 and Max Meyer 22.2  Total 52.2 .  

The Twins are not giving up enough.  To acquire two young pitchers from the Marlins, I think the Twins would need to slightly overpay, so adding Sabato 3.0 or Rooker 1.9 makes a slight overpay and a workable trade.  Possibly the Twins include a pitcher like Strotman if the Marlins want to add an arm back instead of all bats.  

The Marlins do this because they have a glut of young arms but desperately need offense.  Arraez provides a top of the order bat who would primarily play 2B but also provides versatility.  They get an OF bat with either Kepler or Larnach and they either add a power bat/future DH (Sabato or Rooker) or a future BP arm in Strotman.  All players with the exception of Kepler are young and cheap for the future with the exception of Kepler, who is still on a very team friendly contract.  

The Twins get two young arms in Sanchez and Meyer.  Sanchez would open the season in the Twins rotation.  Meyer would be added to the LONG list of Twins pitchers who could make a mid-season debut.  

If this was the trade that involved Arraez I'd be on board.  

This would be great.  It's hard to pull of ML ready pitching with this much control.  

58 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

So the alternative is not to do anything because this FO is lousy ??  I'll agree, I lack a certain degree of confidence in this FO given that they've completely failed in 2 of their 5 years.  But inaction is inertia and without any movement, we're right back in last place.  The trading of Arraez is something I've often suggested on TD with various trade offers.  Everyone knows that despite him being one of my favorite players, I'm earnestly suggesting trading him for pitching.  I don't think the Twins would miss him at all given the young talent ready to take his place and the DIRE need to upgrade our pitching staff.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order and give him 550 AB's anyway.  Arraez probably hit 6th as much as he hit leadoff of 2nd in the lineup.  

As was stated right off the bat, it all depends on what you get for him.  But isn't that the case with ANY trade ??  And there is NEVER a guarantee that the trade will work out.  NEVER.  If there was, do you think the Cubs would have traded Lou Brock to the Cardinals for Ernie Broglio ?  Or the Dodgers Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields ??  

To those clamoring to trade Donaldson or Sano, I understand your desire, but I think MLB Trade Values is a great site to play around with trades to see what the relative "cost" would be.  It's not perfect, but what is ?  It at least gives you an idea of what could work or what would never work.  Here are some values of Twins players in a trade.  Keep in mind that Donaldson and Sano are NEGATIVE trade values, meaning that in order to move them, you either have to take back someone else's bad contract or accept entirely fringe prospects.

Arraez  27.9  Polanco 31.6  Larnach  22.6  Kepler  23.6  Sano -7.1  Balazovic 14.5  Jhoan Duran 6.9  Donaldson -19.1 Austin Martin 30.8  Jeffers 19.2  Kiriloff 37.0  Miranda  11.7  Rooker 1.9  Sabato 3.0.

I listed a bunch to give you an idea of each players relative value.  Now lets look at some trade values for the Miami Marlins to give additional perspective and to create a trade.

T. Rogers 96.7  Alacantara 75.3  Pablo Lopez 57.1 (25 yrs old)  Sixto Sanchez 30.0 (23 yrs old)   Max Meyer 22.2  Jesus luzardo 10.0 (23 yrs old) Cabrera 14.9 (23 yrs old).  You can easily see we can't afford Rogers, Alcantara or Lopez.  Just too expensive.  And if I'm the Marlins, those are my core pitchers I'm hanging on to and building around.  

So lets say the Twins want to acquire Sixto Sanchez.  He's very talented but not one of the BIG THREE. 

Marlins get:  Arraez 27.9 and either Larnach 22.6 or Kepler 23.6.  Trade value is either 51.5 or 50.5 depending on if we traded Larnach or Kepler.

Twins Get:  Sixto Sanchez  30.0 and Max Meyer 22.2  Total 52.2 .  

The Twins are not giving up enough.  To acquire two young pitchers from the Marlins, I think the Twins would need to slightly overpay, so adding Sabato 3.0 or Rooker 1.9 makes a slight overpay and a workable trade.  Possibly the Twins include a pitcher like Strotman if the Marlins want to add an arm back instead of all bats.  

The Marlins do this because they have a glut of young arms but desperately need offense.  Arraez provides a top of the order bat who would primarily play 2B but also provides versatility.  They get an OF bat with either Kepler or Larnach and they either add a power bat/future DH (Sabato or Rooker) or a future BP arm in Strotman.  All players with the exception of Kepler are young and cheap for the future with the exception of Kepler, who is still on a very team friendly contract.  

The Twins get two young arms in Sanchez and Meyer.  Sanchez would open the season in the Twins rotation.  Meyer would be added to the LONG list of Twins pitchers who could make a mid-season debut.  

If this was the trade that involved Arraez I'd be on board.  

A rational, well-reasoned explanation for an Arraez trade. And one I could support, albeit reluctantly because I'd miss Arraez' bat. But I'd still like to move both Donaldson and Sano to make room for players like Miranda and give more AB's to Garver

I love Arraez, I love his game, but he's a man without a position in the current roster. He also has knee issues that seem to come up every year. If you can get a solid everyday player/pitcher for him, you absolutely have to do it. 

13 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

All this talk of possibly trading Arraez is based on the assumption that the front office would "win" the trade.  

Trading Arraez is a good idea. If there is "no confidence" that the current front office can trade Arraez for value then the solution is to fire the current front office, replace them and then trade Arraez.

Arraez at DH doesn't make any sense to me. He had a 105 OPS+ last season - that's easy to find in a DH. Also, I'd rather have Arraez playing 1B and Sano at DH. You put Sano (the worst defender on the team by a WIDE margin) at DH because he hurts you the least on defense at DH.

The Tommy Herr reference earlier is interesting. Herr is one of the most similar players to Luis Arraez.

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Arraez  27.9  Sano -7.1  Donaldson -19.1

One thing to consider about these trade values: Arraez will only come down while Sano and Donaldson will come up over time. Arraez has value now because he's cheap and versatile. As he gets closer to free agency and his arbitration salary goes up his trade value decreases. He is at "peak" trade value with established but not expensive performance. Sano and Donaldson have negative trade value because their remaining salary is high. If the Twins hold onto them for half a season, those numbers get less negative. Sano might even reach positive trade value if he starts the season on a hot streak.

There is no urgency to trade Donaldson now, the Twins have plenty of room in the budget for payroll (> $30M) and no desire to spend it.

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Fun fact: Arraez "horrible" production against lefties for his career is still .100 points higher than 2020 Simmons against humans of any handedness!

I suppose there is stat that shows Arraez is a better fielding SS than Simmons as well.

Arraez's offensive skillset is unique to all of baseball yet he's redundant on the Twins' roster?

He isn't bringing back a front end starter by himself, which means the Twins are either adding other proven big league talent to the deal (if they're lucky) or more likely, they're throwing in a prospect or two. Teams willing to give up a 1-2 type starter with years of control left are almost certainly going to want prospects back. The Twins are sitting on $50M and we're talking about the major league team and/or the vaunted pipeline taking a hit. That's a problem. If he's part of a deal that brings in a true front end starter I can see the merit in moving on. If he's part of deal that only nets a mid rotation piece or another short term solution then what the f*** are the Twins doing? This FO wouldn't commit to adding talent when the price was only monetary, are we supposed to be confident they're willing to part with prospects to boot?

I vote ‘yes,’ this trade would be weatherable.

At the risk of repeating what others have said, this is not a yes or no question. There is no reason for the Twins to declare Arraez as somehow "untouchable" in a trade, nor is there any reason to give him away to open up a spot for others. He has value to the Twins on the field next year. He may have more more value to the Twins as a trade chip because there is the chance that we could combine him with either high end hitting prospect or slightly lesser pitching prospect and potentially get a quality starter. A quality starter does not mean a number 1 starter, more like a 2/3. Getting a 1/2 means trading Arraez and 2 high end hitting prospects or a high-end hitter and high-end pitching prospect. I would do the former for a quality pitcher like Sonny Gray if we can extend him so we have at least 2-3 years of control. I would do the latter at if the return was someone like Chris Bassett from Oakland, but only if we also extend him at least 2 years past his present one year remaining, or if we get a younger pitcher like Lopez or Sanchez from the Marlins plus a solid MLB ready pitching pitching prospect like Meyer. Otherwise, we keep Arraez.

By the way, to those of you suggesting the solution is to move Polanco back to short and put Arraez in as the everyday 2B,  clears dear God don't let the FO hear you. Polanco is a great hitting, solid fielding 2nd baseman, even All-Star game worthy. He is a lousy fielding, injury prone shortstop whose bat takes a hit when he has to play SS.  Even worse, Arraez is average at best at 2nd base so now we have a below average fielding middle infield behind a bunch of young, kid pitchers trying to transition to the major leagues. Moreover, any FA starter is not going to come to a team that has a lousy fielding middle infield since it will make that pitcher look bad. To me, that is a recipe for a disaster. Assuming we do not trade Arraez, Polanco needs to stay at 2nd base and Arraez can get his 500 bats at the DH, 3B, and occasionally at the 2B spots. The team then needs to sign a quality defensive shortstop and frankly not really care whether the guy can hit.

Cold weather and we are all making our own hot stoves; it's all good. Nothing has changed, but we did learn something .... maybe. The Twins eschewed pretty much all free agent players. They may be waiting for a better value on a couple of players. We also did not see any trades or even read any real rumors concerning the Twins. Perhaps this is closely tied to the CBA. It is pretty clear that the Twins need pitching. Oh, they also need a shortstop and possibly an outfielder. At this point there still are a few free agents worth signing: Carlos Rodon, Trevor Story, and Michael Conforto. There are a ton of players worth trading for and this is why this post is popular. Luis Arraez leads a host of rostered players that can be used to upgrade the team. Donaldson and Sano can still contribute but it is quite unlikely they return anything in a trade right now. All options need to be on the table, including a few of the pitching prospects. The Miami option as submitted above is a positive move. Bassitt or Manaia are solid options and Montas is a great goal. It is unfortunate that Arraez does not have a clear position with the Twins. Polanco needs to stay at 2B and Miranda covers Donaldson at 3B. Arraez is not a DH or an outfielder. San Diego could use Arraez as could Oakland or Miami, but the bottom line is that the Twins must add at least two pitchers. 

22 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

All this talk of possibly trading Arraez is based on the assumption that the front office would "win" the trade.  If you lose the trade, we would all agree it was a bust.  Has anyone paid attention to the "win" percentage of this front office?  They ran this team into the ground (last place in baseball's worst division) and you expect to see something different?  I don't get it.

Then the front office deals with the failure. Not making the trade is just as bad as making a bad trade.

5 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

The difference is that Buxton is worth taking a chance on, even with his limited durability, because his production during those 187 games has been unreal. In that time he has been worth 9.1 Wins Above Replacement, while in Arraez's 245 games he has only been worth 4.7 wins above replacement

Arraez was 22-24 while Buxton was 25-27. Arraez and Buxton have similar bWAR values (6.0 vs. 6.3), games played (245 vs 260) and plate appearances (966 vs. 936) through their age 22-24 seasons.

The obsession with Buxton around here...

On 1/11/2022 at 5:58 PM, RpR said:

Arraez is horrible against left-hand pitchers so stop with the pure hitter spiel, but I am surprised he was horrid at 2nd base his first year but this year was pretty good there, while at 3rd he was below average where he once was simply average.  If they keep him, keep him as a back-up to Polanco at second.

Putting him at third with some mediocre newbie at SS will have opponents salivating with chances to raise their batting average.

He's not as rough vs. lefties as you make him out to be. Of the 92 left handed hitters in MLB with 170+ plate appearances vs left handed pitching, the median wRC+ was 85. Luis Arraez's career wRC+ against lefties is wRC+ 88. Certainly not good, but not "horrible" at least in my opinion.

Arraez is a great batsman and he does well enough against lefties too. His tenacity at the plate is awesome and may certainly benefit those who follow him in the batting order. The problem with Arraez is not an issue with his skills but rather the lack of a position right now for him in the lineup. This makes him a prime player to consider when looking to trade with another team. It is unlikely that the Twins would put Polanco out as an option in a trade and Donaldson is not very tradable right now. An aside, Donaldson was really good last year and remains a veritable star player. Maybe the Twins find a way to fill their holes in the pitching staff and then Arraez becomes a good offensive utility player.

17 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

The difference is that Buxton is worth taking a chance on, even with his limited durability, because his production during those 187 games has been unreal. In that time he has been worth 9.1 Wins Above Replacement, while in Arraez's 245 games he has only been worth 4.7 wins above replacement

Sounds like with a 9.1 WAR, the Twins should be undefeated each time Buxton plays! He doesn't put up many more games than that per season. But, at least he will be cashing full season paychecks... good for him.

39 minutes ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

Quote

A lot of fans criticize the Twins for not spending money, but when they do extend a very talented player to a deal that is extremely team friendly if he stays even relatively healthy, fans complain that they gave him too much money.

 

I am "negative" toward bad decisions. As a fan who attends games, has to pay premium money to the cable company in order for the 'privilege' to watch them on TV, I have earned the right to criticize what I feel is dumb decisions. Unfortunately, there are too many fans that blindly accept what the teams in this town do, and say 'well, we're a small market team' or 'we have to take it because we are a fly over state.' Stand up and demand more for what you are paying your good money for. I am 45 years old and have been a fan my entire life, have never jumped off the bandwagon, nor will I ever do so. You will always see me in the stands donning my Twins gear and cheering on the hometown boys. But, on that same note, I will also call them out on what I feel are dumb decisions. And, they are just that. My opinions; albeit are educated opinions are just that, my opinions. However, I have never formed an opinion on anything without looking at the issue, first.

The Twins franchise is a business, and we the fans support that business with our dollars. That gives us a vested interest in the decisions they make. As a business, I feel poor or flat out dumb decisions should be called out. If I had an employee that can not show up to work, especially when I (the business) needs him, I would not give him a raise just because when he is here he shows "potential" to be good at his job. Meanwhile, I have to employ several other employees to do his job while he is gone. What business would do that? No, I would go and pay top dollar for an employee that will come into my business and do that job well, and be there when I need him the most. Baseball calls it durability, the business world calls it dependability.

You read my comments and think me a negative person, actually I am just someone who is not going to put up with BS status quo in life, anymore. I demand effort from myself, those around me, and those I support with my money. I am not negative, I just call things like I see them. And I see a FO that spent the limited amount of FA time the MLB had getting a contract done with a person, who was currently under contract and not going anywhere. Meanwhile, the FA market caught them 'off guard' by how fast it sped up in the wake of the lockout. They missed out on potentially bringing in pieces, because they had to re-sign a guy that is never here when they need him. I would fire my executives if they neglected to see the market, which is their job to monitor, was passing them by.

I am not criticizing them for spending the money, I am questioning the logic in spending the money on a guy who is never here, and allowing themselves to be blind to the rest of the league while doing so. FA's were gobbled up quickly that could have helped the Twins, now. The FO stated "the market sped up faster than we thought". That is poor business, no matter what field you are in, or play on.

1 hour ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I respect your point. However them extending Buxton and signing other free agents aren't mutually exclusive events. They have sooo many front office members where they could've signed free agents while also extending Buxton. I agree they should've made some signings but not at the expense of losing Buxton. They should've done both

When were they going to lose Buxton? He was still under contract, not going anywhere. This was an extension. That point was further made clear when no team was willing to pay the Twins asking price for him at the trade deadline. Which means no other team holds the same view of Buxton, as the Twins do. Maybe all that changes if he can find his way to the field for the next seven years, and I do not mean as a DH!

I hope it is a good signing going forward. Truly, as a Twins fan, I want this to be the truth! But this team made a business decision on an employees 'potential'. And that employee has made no point of showing the team he can be available for them, when he is needed. I have an issue with the Twins halting all other club progress to extend a guy, I feel, should not have been the #1 priority at that time. Could that same $100m been better used to lure: Scherzer ($130m), Ray ($115m), Stroman ($71m), Gray ($56m), Matz ($44m) or Syndergaard ($21m)? All were signed while we were negotiating with Buxton. Now because of that decision, we are forced to settle for the crumbs left behind by the more pro-active and business savvy teams.

I have enjoyed our back and forth and seeing view points. I hope you know I am not attempting to diminish your viewpoint, in any way? I really do like having a good back and forth with a person who obviously has the passion and knowledge to state their point. Thank you. You have my total respect, Mr. Andrew Mahlke!

18 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I love talking Twins, so of course. When I look at the contract, yes it is $100M but it is over seven years, which breaks down to roughly $14 million a year. Instead of looking at the total value of these other players' contracts, I would look at their average annual value. Scherzer for example, is making $30 million more than Buxton is over his contract, but Scherzer is making $43 million a year, three times more than what Buxton is getting.

Jon Gray is making $56 million over 4 years, which boils down to $14 million a year, a hair less than what Buxton will be making. If Buxton meets his incentives, his value goes up, and I'm sure the Twins are fine with that because that means that he will be on the field for them. Personally, I know pitching is the bigger need, but I would take Buxton at 14 million per year over Gray at 14 million per year any day of the week.

And yes while I understand it was an extension, it was either that or trade him. It was widely viewed that it made no sense to hold on to Buxton for 2022 if he didn't have plans to re-sign after the season, they would've wanted to get some value for him. 

I know it made no sense to hold on to Buxton for '22 if he didn't wish to re-sign, but his motivation to sign with the Twins was stoked when he saw he had no value to other teams when he was shopped at the deadline.

Your original statement of wanting the Twins to spend money, then me being upset when the Twins do spend money, was the source of my comment with the others that signed during FA. I understand the breakdown of yearly money wasn't similar for all of them, but that would have been a better show of spending appropriate money to fill actual needs for the team. CF is/was not a glaring hole on this team, but pitching is, and still is.

Your reply mentioned Scherzer and Gray, which we (I) knew that Scherzer was never coming here no matter the money, but there were others on that list, too.

Robbie Ray $115m/9yrs = 12.8m/yr

Steve Matz $44m/4yrs = 11m/yr

Although in the 20's there was still Syndergaard (who the Twins were linked to several times for trade) and Stroman.

But instead we shored up our rotation by giving Dylan Bundy $5m/1yr!?

Bundy's career line is: 46W/57L, 4.72ERA, 758K's/770IP - So, he is a career losing pitcher with an ERA over 4.5 and less than 1K per inning pitched.

If the Twins feel Bundy is worth $5m per season, then why could they not stretch for some of the others mentioned here, who are far more proven assets?

So again, I am not mad when the team spends money, as long as that money makes sense. I felt Donaldson was a bold move, and the former MVP could still put up numbers while filling a hole at 3B and DH. But I don't believe another team would have given Buxton $100m plus incentives, and his camp knew that, too. And that is why he agreed to the offer from the Twins. He was not giving us a 'hometown discount', he took the money he knew no one else was going to offer him. That's bad money on the part of the Twins and smart business on the part of Buxton.

On 1/12/2022 at 3:14 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

Arraez's offensive skillset is unique to all of baseball yet he's redundant on the Twins' roster?

He isn't bringing back a front end starter by himself, which means the Twins are either adding other proven big league talent to the deal (if they're lucky) or more likely, they're throwing in a prospect or two. Teams willing to give up a 1-2 type starter with years of control left are almost certainly going to want prospects back. The Twins are sitting on $50M and we're talking about the major league team and/or the vaunted pipeline taking a hit. That's a problem. If he's part of a deal that brings in a true front end starter I can see the merit in moving on. If he's part of deal that only nets a mid rotation piece or another short term solution then what the f*** are the Twins doing? This FO wouldn't commit to adding talent when the price was only monetary, are we supposed to be confident they're willing to part with prospects to boot?

No.  They are not going to trade Arraez and add prospects so that they can be a 500 team this year.  The entire premise and line of reasoning revolves around the theory they must go for it this year when all indications are they are playing the long game.  My guess is the only way they trade Arraez is for a ML ready or close to ready SS or a high ceiling pitching prospect.

Arraez was 142nd among position players in Fwar last year.  Let's not get too carried away with his trade value or any suggestion that he could not be replaced.