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  • Could the Twins Play "Pick a Mets Starter"?


    Ted Schwerzler

    No one in baseball spent more money this season than the New York Mets. It wasn’t enough to win Steve Cohen’s organization a division title, and they bowed out early in the postseason. Now a rotation exodus begins and the Minnesota Twins could be intrigued by a few names.

     

    Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

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    Only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros won more games than the 101 victories recorded by the New York Mets this season. By fWAR, the Mets starters compiled the fifth-highest total across baseball. Their 3.61 ERA was also fifth while the 9.4 K/9 topped all of baseball. Facing plenty of change in 2023, Jacob deGrom is able to opt out of the final two years of his contract, and he could be joined by both Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.

    To be fair, deGrom doesn’t seem like the type of pitcher Minnesota will target. He’s a true ace, that will get something over $35 million per year on a multi-year deal despite being 34 years old. The two-time Cy Young winner has not been healthy either of the past two seasons and spending big on an aging question mark doesn’t seem up the Twins' alley. It’s also fair to note that the likelihood of interest from the career Mets pitcher will probably be non-existent.

    The alternatives could certainly provide a bit more promise, however.

    Chris Bassitt will be 34 next season and has flown under the radar as one of baseball’s best pitchers since 2018. Drafted by the White Sox way back in 2011, Bassitt announced his presence in a limited 2015, before missing 2017 due to injury. Since 2018, Bassitt has posted a 3.29 ERA across nearly 600 innings. He gets punch outs, he avoids walks, and he keeps the ball in the yard.

    Individual accolades haven’t added up for Bassitt, with just a single All-Star appearance and twice generating Cy Young votes, but he’s been as consistent as they come. Health could be a concern, but Bassitt has largely remained available since returning to the mound in 2018. With a $19 million mutual option, he’ll obviously turn that down with the qualifying offer being north of that for 2023. Draft pick compensation could stymie his market some, but he shouldn’t have trouble finding a two-to-four-year deal making something north of $20 million in each of them.

    Walker is interesting in that he should be affordable, which benefits the Twins, but his addition may not raise the bar all that much. I’m not sure Derek Falvey or Thad Levine would be able to sell Walker surpassing the bar of Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, or Kenta Maeda. A former top prospect, he’s been solid when healthy, but rarely that, and never great.

    Since 2018 Walker has pitched for four organizations and even with a 3.78 ERA, he hasn’t topped 400 total innings and his 4.16 FIP is more reflective of his effectiveness. Walker at his best is lightyears ahead of either Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer, but at his worst, or even what could be projected, he may not represent much more than either of them at their best for the Twins in 2022.

    The trio of former Mets definitely represent options for Minnesota to consider, and they range in desirability and likelihood. There should probably only be a single option to pursue here, but it remains to be seen how the front office will act. Do you have any interest in adding any of these pitchers from the Mets?

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    That's a bit rich, but $35m+$21m is within reach.  I'd sign Correa and Bassitt in a minute if we could get them for $55m a season.

    If that sounds horrifying recall how much money teams make from the main MLB wellhead before receiving any local cable, ticket or stadium revenue. It's a lot.  Forbes estimates that in 2021 the Twins Revenues were about $268m with a payroll around $144m. That missing $120m is the cost of paying minor leaguers, coaches, and execs plus a little left over for profit. The Forbes numbers may not be perfect, but even if they are off by 50% there's room for Correa. 

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    I'll admit it.  I've always been enamored with Jacob DeGrom.  Man, what a shame that he's been injured so much, because he's one of the pitchers in baseball who is must-see-television.  That said, they'd be crazy to offer him much.  Although.......Paddock....Mahle....do I see a pattern here? :(

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    Unless you going big, I would not understand going after starters.  We have a good amount of solid 2 or 3 number guys.  Assuming Maeda and Mahle will be healthy.  Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan all slot into that spot.  Leaving 1 open spot in a 5 man rotation, that can be filled by Ober, SWR, Varland, Widner if needed.  Of course injuries will happen and depth is needed, but I do not see the Twins going after a Bundy/Archer type guy this off-season.  If they go after a starter it better be a spend big top end guy for a couple years.  I could see them go after the level 2 type guys if they plan to make some trades of the glut we have.  

    Depending on the years Degrom is looking for, I could see the Twins willing to give the 35 mil per, but only for like 2 to 3 years, with vesting options for anything after that.  His injuries are huge concerns to be dropping that kind of cash on a single guy, but he would help if healthy most likely.  

    Bassit to me is not an Ace, but a good number 2, which I would take but is he that much better than what we have now to spend huge when we could go after other positions is needed? 

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    I watch alot of Met games as they have always been my #2 team.  On eye test Id go Walker.  His numbers are OK.  He is an upgrade from Archer-Bundy (I know...) and his price fits the Twins pockets.

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    I doubt the Twins will sign any of them.  I suspect they will wait until late to sign or acquire any top pitching.  That is their pedigree.  Wait until the end, sign another reclamation project or two, then try to convince the fans they tried but couldn't sign anyone.  It's been happening for years.  I don't expect it to change.

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