Cooperstown Case: Should Joe Mauer Make the Hall of Fame?

Personally, I've always felt being a HOF inductee comes down to more than just numbers. I mean, decade by decade there have been different tendencies in ALL sports. Football used to be fewer games, much more rigid rules concerning things like pass defense, and the game evolved in to a passing first sport. So comparing pkayers from different eras becomes problematic. For example, all the records Manning and Favre broke were set by Tarkenton in a different style and ERA of play. Are they truly better QBs?

Baseball has also had different eras of small ball, dead ball, steroids, HR ball, etc. So numbers are great to compare in any sport and any ERA. And they are important. But to me, one primary criteria has always been: "for the time a player played, was he one of the best in the league, and at his position, for an extended period of time?"

If you examine the "numbers" posted above in comparison to those other great players and catchers, Mauer's numbers are even more impressive than just my memory recall. Then there are All Star games, 6 to be exact. The three batting titles, which is pretty amazing by itself, all the more so being a catcher. Then there is the MVP, 3 Gold Gloves and 5 Silver Slugger awards.

Pretty impressive stuff.

The injury factor is what holds Joe's case back, somewhat, unfortunately. I often think of fellow Twins great Tony Oliva when I think of Mauer. For years the argument has been made that Oliva might just be the best ballplayer not elected to the HOF, and everyone knows jts due to injuries that curtailed his career. Despite all his impressive accomplishments, does Mauer get "credit" for "what might have been" due to his concussions? It's a topic that 10 years ago wouldn't have even been discussed. But now?

Further, and I hate to even touch on this, but post-steroids ERA, does he get a little more credit for being such a good guy and clean player? I know it's sports politics, but we've witnessed the reverse trend in regard to other players listed as tainted.

For 9 season's the argument could be made he was the best overall catcher in baseball. That, his awards, the numbers listed above, would tell me he is deserving. Now, his 2017 re-surgance and over all re-invention as a top fielding 1B, and a repeat performance this season, (And he's off to a he'll of a start in 2018), plus another year or two similar season's, maybe with a Gold Glove thrown in, (I think he deserved it last year), and his case is only strengthened.

I don't know if he will make it, but 9 years as probably, arguably, the best overall player at his position is HOF worthy. At least, he should be seriously considered.

You bet.

He is a strong candidate, especially now that his concussion symptoms seem to be behind him and he is hitting like old Mauer.

I have had two concussions that caused hospital admissions.

Symptoms from the more serious of the two lingered for more than a few months. Processing things became slow, reading a newspaper became complicated.

I did not have a profession that required me to bat against guys who threw 95mph gernades at me. The point is that the injury that dropped his BA should not be held against his HOF canadacy.

His longevity is there before the injury.

Same with Oliva, same with Kaat. They were workhorses for the Twins before the injuries.

They are not the only ones.

Those type of players should be HOF enshrinees.

I wonder what his odds will be with the voters. Mauer seems like a guy who would take a few years to build the votes up and won't be getting in on the first ballot. I would like to know what the national baseball pundits think of his odds.

I have a feeling Mauer isn't done. If he figures out launch angle to go with the resurgence, his next 5 years could make him a first ballot. I hope it is with the Twins. That sweet swing's evolution to the modern day. A series of one year contracts, believing in himself like Jordan did. That's the ticket.

I think he’s getting in. The point made by DocBauer on how today’s voters will look at post-concussion performance is a good one and I think his numbers/comparisons plus that enlightenment is going to assure him a spot.

When talking about Mauer should the discussion also include pitches per appearance?

Without looking up all the years he seems to be to in the top of even in his off years. In the current state of baseball getting pitch counts up is almost as important as scoring a run or two early in the game.

I am largely puzzled by the HOF criteria.  I think Joe will struggle to get in because his stat line is not sexy enough.  Some guys I think about who were great players and are still not in.  

Tim Raines career WAR~60, .294/.385/.425  OPS .810  2600 hits, 800 stolen bases...

Piazza and Bagwell have 427 and 450 home runs respectively while hitting ~.300

Jeff Kent  .290/.356/.500 with 2500 hits and 377 HR. ~60 WAR

Fred McGriff .284/.377/.509 with ~2500 hits, 493 HR and ~56 WAR

Yes. Good defensive catchers are hard to find. Good defensive catchers with a few gold gloves, and MVP, and 3 batting titles are even rarer. Actually I think non existent?

I think everyone is making really great points, but at the end of the day, if I had a vote I would put him on my ballot. 

I can't worry about the other voters or trying to campaign for him, I can only vote my heart and conscience... and those tell me he's on my ballot no matter what.

I am largely puzzled by the HOF criteria.  I think Joe will struggle to get in because his stat line is not sexy enough.  Some guys I think about who were great players and are still not in.  

 

Tim Raines career WAR~60, .294/.385/.425  OPS .810  2600 hits, 800 stolen bases...

Piazza and Bagwell have 427 and 450 home runs respectively while hitting ~.300

Jeff Kent  .290/.356/.500 with 2500 hits and 377 HR. ~60 WAR

Fred McGriff .284/.377/.509 with ~2500 hits, 493 HR and ~56 WAR

Raines, Piazza and Bagwell are all in.

As with most HOF arguments it's a peak vs. longevity thing.

If you care about peak, then it's hard to beat a gold glove, silver slugger, MVP catcher.

Longevity is typically where you accumulate counting stats. Mauer will not really have any impressive counting stats other than times on base, which no one cares about. Also this is where you think about him spending several years as a light hitting first baseman, which is a description a LONG way from the HOF.

I personally think if he can add another GG and batting title at first base, it really helps his case. The only player with 4+ batting titles (14 of them) who isn't in the HOF (besides Miguel Cabrera) is Bill Madlock, which um, he's certainly the odd one out on that list.

If Mauer just has a couple more mediocre years and retires, I don't think he has enough "good" years to compliment his "great" years, and his "great" years aren't "great" enough to dismiss that.

A twilight batting title would likely seal the deal for Joe.  I hope he can stay healthy and make that a reality.

Players with four or more batting titles:

Honus Wagner HOF

Ty Cobb HOF

Rogers Hornsby HOF

Harry Heilmann HOF

Ted Williams HOF

Stan Musial HOF

Roberto Clemente HOF

Rod Carew HOF

Bill Madlock

Wade Boggs HOF

Tony Gwynn HOF

Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is probably first ballot.

That leaves Madlock as the only player to win four batting titles and not make the Hall.  One of his titles came in the strike shortened season of '81.

That's quite a list, and I would think if Mauer joined it, he gets the call.

I waited around to see what type of stuff some of the baseball channels would run about Joe because 2000 hits is a BIG deal (or at least I thought it was).  TBH, there wasn't much national coverage on it..and that tells the story for me about how the baseball world views Joe.  

I noticed the lack of this as well.

For example, Topps has their moments of the week:

1) The Mets five pitchers starting together and the team going 5-0.

2) Andrew McCutchen getting two walk-off hits

3) Scott Kingery having a 6 game hitting streak (Dozier has 11)

4) Gerrit Cole striking out 10 guys in three consecutive games

5) Bryce Harper hitting his 7th home run

Joe couldn't even make that list, especially over Kingery, which I thought was pretty lame. 

Slightly off topic:

I don't know much about modern defensive metrics and exactly how they are calculated, but the comments here seem to suggest that range on batted balls is the main factor. But (uniquely) for firstbasemen, the most important defensive action may be saving errors on other players' errant throws. Is there a defensive metric for firstbasemen that measures "defensive errors saved"? Joe sure has saved a lot of them, but I haven't watched enough other firstbasemen to know how he compares.

Personally, I think Joe is a Hall of Famer right now. He spent 10 years as a catcher. 2 of which were wrecked by injury (half a season or less...I'm fudging 2011 in here since he played 82 games) and 2 others were cut short ('07 & '13) at about 110 games. And he was a great catcher. A hitting machine who was constantly on base, played excellent defense and deserved the MVP. (and could have won a second one) he doubled the number of batting titles won by a catcher all by himself.

The second half of his career hasn't been as wonderful, but that's concussions for you. And now Joe seems to be swinging his way back out of it. Pretty unusual for a guy to be able to reinvent themselves at a new position late in their career and be great at it, but Joe's done it becoming a terrific defensive player at what is a very different position. He should have gotten the Gold Glove last year (which probably would have changed some minds on his HoF case)

Yes, the compilation stats are a little low for some people's taste, but let's project a little. Say Joe plays another 2 years after this, and stays healthy enough to play 130-140 games. That could easily add another 350-400 hits to his tally, and now he's a guy who spent half his career as one of the best catchers in the game and still ended with more hits than Carlton Fisk. Absent a sudden, catastrophic injury, he's going to pass Johnny Bench before the all-star break. He's on pace to pass Mike Piazza by the end of the year.

A few more fun things with stats: Joe is current 6th among active player in times on base. The guys ahead of him? Pujols, Beltre, Ichiro, Cabrera, and Cano. All of them are going to be in the Hall, and none of them played catcher.

Ernie Lombardi and Mickey Cochrane are both in the Hall, and deservedly so. Mauer was better than Lombardi, and very similar to Cochrane, who is frequently listed in the top ten all-time.

Forget about the contract. Forget the Dan Barreiro's of the world meowing about home runs and RBI. revel in the greatness of Joe Mauer and the sweetest swing Twins fans have probably ever seen.

First ballot?    No.   But I do think he gets in, as he should.     

If he was a Yankee, there would have been coverage... just my 2 cents.

If he was a Yankee they would've had a national watch party during his at bats. Cutting into other games' coverage so they could show you his 2000th hit. Or they just would've made the game nationally televised.

Also, thank god he never did become a Yankee. I would feel awful having to force myself to hate Joe. I mean I would've done it, but I wouldn't have liked it.