Contemplating Max Kepler's Future

9 minutes ago, gman said:

Looking at Kepler's career, he has only had one good year. RF has usually been reserved for hitters, not good field no hit guys.

He was just fine from 2017-2019, last year not so good.

Where did you dream up your second statement?

His numbers in Left for fielding are far, far, far  better than Larnach or Gordon.

Keep him for now.  Maybe ink another team friendly extension in the off-season.  Worst case is that no extension is signed and he's a summer rental trade chip next season in the event we are sellers.  There are worse situations we can be in.

This coming from a fan of Kepler who has always rooted for him and hoped he would nudge his offense up another notch, and who has been disappointed he has never been able to.

1] His career OPS+ is 101. While that number is somewhat skewed by 2019 and 2020, his best 2 years, that's true of every player, where you have lower and greater seasons. So he's not great offensively, never has been, but he's been league average for his career. He's also a gold glove caliber defensive player, which gives him a higher WAR value overall, and raises said overall value. His "problem" is that offensively he should be batting, mostly, lower in the lineup than he's generally been used.

2] His contract for 2023 is not only not expensive, a "normal" Kepler remains league average offensively while having his great defense. But he also fills an important role in 2023 at this point. There remains real hope...you have to have HOPE...that Kirilloff's latest procedure will allow him to continue his career and be the player he can be. What they're doing makes sense, but until we see the resuts.... Larnach doesn't have any chronic injury situation at this point. He's had 2 distinctive and un-related injuries that simply aren't chronic in nature, just unfortunate. But we've seen what he can do when healthy. Wallner has established himself as a top prospect due to numbers and continued improvement. He's looked solid in his debut..which probably should have been a week or two earlier...and that debut will only assist him with making that final step on a permanent basis in the future. But to move Kepler and just trust everything is going to work out is a fools errand. 

For what has to be at least the 3rd season in a row, the Twins need a RH OF, whether he can play CF or not. But you can't go in to 2023 yet again with only Celestino and Garlick as your RH OF! And you can't just trust everyone else is just going to be fine.

Kepler isn't just a 4th OF with his career offense, but he SHOULD play some CF, and he SHOULD sit against LHSP IF you actually have a decent RH option to play both corners at least. And I'm fine if Kepler can be included in a deal to bring in a quality rotation arm. But despite his positives, he's still coming off a bad season and won't bring anything of value by himself. And his value, healthy, just being himself, remains a solid player at this point until AK, Larnach, and Wallner have the opportunity to be healthy and prove themselves. 

Unless someone really wants to trade for him, the Twins will play him in 2023.  And, unless he really puts together a fantastic season, that's it for the Twins.  And even if Max does do fantastic, that's probably it for the Twins, too.  They won't risk signing him again to a big contract.

If he does well at the plate, they'll certainly play him every day, otherwise, his play time will probably start diminishing next year, and he will start being the defensive replacement and 4th outfielder on the team.  After that, well, if he signs for cheap, he can make several teams in 2024, possibly even the Twins.

42 minutes ago, Einheri said:

And even if Max does do fantastic, that's probably it for the Twins, too.  They won't risk signing him again to a big contract.

The Twins have an option to keep Kepler in 2024 if they choose to have him return. I believe the option is for $10 million, but the Twins can buy turn it down (buyout) for $1 million.

Kepler should be kept, especially with the changes to defensive shifting. Give him a chance to then come back and be a better than average hitter with power again. Lord knows, the team needs someone that can drive in runners. (For success though the manager still must learn how to use pitchers better). 

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Is he any improvement over Celestino?  I'm thinking no.

I think no also.

With one notable exception (the Bomba season) Max Kepler has been an underwhelming MLB outfielder.

I thought he would be our Bob Allison.  Allison was a good, not great player who accumulated 34 WAR over 13 years.  Bob hit under 250 four different years including his last.  He peaked in 63 - 64 when he got MVP support, then he crashed including the WS year.  Just like Kepler he was a good fielder, but like Kepler he hit his peak and could not recover the magic. Kepler has not shown his MVP year to be sustainable and his 16 WAR in 8 seasons is above average but all on his fielding. 

The question of moving on is more dependent on the health of the players who are supposed to replace him. 

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

The question of moving on is more dependent on the health of the players who are supposed to replace him. 

This has become one criteria in a consideration of whether the Twins continue with Kepler in RF. Think of Garlick, Wallner, or Larnach in right field and watch a ball per game fall on the grass instead of in a glove. Some of those outs go to the wall for extra bases too, Decisions will need to be made this offseason. 

One question that has crossed my mind is how much interest Kepler has in playing for the Twins next year. I know nothing and don't like to speculate but I have never seen a player seem more unhappy. Of course, I hope that is just nonsense. Players may have body language and facial expressions due to pain and a myriad of personal reasons.

I like Max as a player for us - he's not perfect and I think he'll have better luck next year at the plate as teams adjust to not putting their entire set of fielders on the right side.

But - he is redundant by being a left handed outfielder.  Trade him if we can get a decent middle of the rotation arm, or for a great reliever if we can for him.  We have other younger, cheaper talent that can do what he can for us and we need pitching......again.

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This has become one criteria in a consideration of whether the Twins continue with Kepler in RF. Think of Garlick, Wallner, or Larnach in right field and watch a ball per game fall on the grass instead of in a glove. Some of those outs go to the wall for extra bases too, Decisions will need to be made this offseason. 

One question that has crossed my mind is how much interest Kepler has in playing for the Twins next year. I know nothing and don't like to speculate but I have never seen a player seem more unhappy. Of course, I hope that is just nonsense. Players may have body language and facial expressions due to pain and a myriad of personal reasons.

I just think that he is not an emotional player so I wouldn't read anything into his body language at this point. Not sure I can agree with your assessment of what will happen if someone else replaces Kepler in the outfield

Just cut bait and eat the remaining money. It's what they will do with Sano so what's one more salary to eat?

He will be back starting in left field next year, after that, does not matter.

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Sano's contract next year is a team option, which the Twins will surely decline and buy out, whereas Kepler's 2023 money is guaranteed.  Not a similar situation.

Doesn't matter.  They have enough young players looking for spots to play in the OF. Do you really think he could actually bounce back? I would rather give the AB's to someone like Wallner.

This dovetails with the Buxton thread, but I would plan to start Kepler in CF against righties, and sit him vs. lefties.  DH Buxton against righties, and start Buxton in CF vs. lefties (when he is healthy.)  

If the Marlins want Kepler, I would listen.