Choose Your Own Path: 5 Ways for the 2021 Minnesota Twins to Spend their Remaining $40M

Do Falvey or Levine have Covid? You don't hear anything. Terry Ryan use to be done free agent shopping by Christmas.  I think they will spread it around a bit. No on Bauer.  That team looks like the weakest. Cave/Rooker platoon at DH would not be fun.

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

How about a “save it for next year” plan?

I vote for option 2. Pitching wins championships. Always been a fan of Alex Wood and advocated for the Twins to sign him last year. Maybe save some money on Rosenthal and sign someone cheaper and add a little more depth to the bench, but, I wouldn't be too worried about it; the bench doesn't scare me as outlined above. Hell, if Lewis is tearing it up, call him up and your bench now has Polanco or Arraez on it. Go. Get. Pitching.

Hybrid plan for me, but I'd rather have Wood than Odo. Bring back Cruz and Clippard and take some shots with rebound guys to fill the pen.

I vote for option 2. Pitching wins championships. Always been a fan of Alex Wood and advocated for the Twins to sign him last year. Maybe save some money on Rosenthal and sign someone cheaper and add a little more depth to the bench, but, I wouldn't be too worried about it; the bench doesn't scare me as outlined above. Hell, if Lewis is tearing it up, call him up and your bench now has Polanco or Arraez on it. Go. Get. Pitching.

Last year's team had enough pitching, but you won't win a play-off series (let alone a World Series) scoring one run a game. The all-in isn't going to win it. I'd prefer the 'spread it around.' Of all of the options, the 'do over' sounds the worst.

I say run it back. I've liked where the Twins have been in '19 and '20 so I think that makes the most sense for them as an organization.

If nearly all of the offense hadn't regressed in 2020, I might agree with you. They'd be relying on a bunch of guys (Romo, Cruz, Polanco) who were on the down-swing in the second half of 2020 - and some who had really poor full seasons (Marwin, Cave, Adrianza).

Thanks Matt, for putting in so much work & planning in these blueprints, they're very interesting.

I think plan "A "        should include strengthen our middle which would have Hernandez (which is     highly      rumored) & Lin which we have already obtained plus signing Cruz. I believe this falls into your "spread it around" plan, I'd also   choose some other different options.  Of coarse signing Cruz, we can't sign Odo           we'd have to           sign a lesser pitcher like Richards.                         Signing Cruz is worth it. 

If we can't sign Cruz, my plan "B" would be the "Bauer" plan & still find a way to sign Hernandez for a little less which I believe the FO is doing now.

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

I agree w/ Matt it's just an estimate. It`s better to be under than over, if we have some wiggle room we can go after a big gun before the dead line. Also Ted Schwertzler blogged that the FO might be testing the waters to make a big splash. We'll have to wait & see 

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

It might be easy but what is it based on. A lot of projections these projections are based on a wish that spending be $X. Budgets are developed based on a revenue projection. I have seen evidence any of the projections here are based on revenue projections.

I understand to a degree. Does anyone know how much revenue is going to be impacted? IMO, the team’s projections could change by $10s of millions over the next 60-90 days. This 10% cut in payroll is the equivalent to a 5% decrease in revenue. How many here think revenue will be down by 5% or less?

What’s the most likely case scenario? Are we going to play 162 games? Let’s say that best case scenario comes true. When will fans be back? It’s not going to be day 1. Let’s say they are back after only 60 games which would be extremely fortunate. That’s 37% of the season which equates to a $44.4M loss in revenue. Who here would cut their spending by $15K if they knew they were going to make $45K less this year?

I sure hope they spend $125M or more but the current revenue outlook does not support it.. 

I love the way you laid this out Mathew .. 

So, I would take the elite pitching plan, drop Wood and Rosenshein (7m +7m = 14m) and use it to resign Cruz ... 

The news is this: nobody knows if the Twins are playing at $90 million or $125 million.

The itch is to think positive and go with a $125 million payroll; a fun exercise. I'll play.

I'm using money on Tyler Clippard and Liam Hendriks to cost me $25 million for relief.

Hendriks - Rogers - Duffey - Clippard - Alcala - Stashak - Thielbar - Dobnak.

Jake Odorizzi and Dobnak/Duran round out my starting staff which costs $39 million.

Berrios - Maeda - Odorizzi or Kluber & Hill - Pineda - Duran.

My squad will miss Cruz but add Ketel Marte and resign Adrianza for $61 million to fill out the batting side.

Garver/Jeffers-Kirilloff-Arraez-Donaldson-Polanco-Marte-Buxton-Kepler-Sano with a bench of Rooker-Larnach-Adrianza.

I would like to find a trade with Colorado as do others. Kluber, Hill, Walker, and others are all interesting picks too.

It would also be a fun exercise to see what the Twins do at a $100 million.

Combined response to Matt, Doctor Gast, and MLR, from someone who hasn't mastered the MultiQuote button.

Again, I get why it makes "sense" to assume that budget will go down based on revenue projection and that that's the general assumption for most teams. It may well happen for the Twins as well.

Or it may not. In my work, I often remind people that a budget is first and foremost a planning document. It's not hard and fast. Good budgets aren't locked, and when circumstances call for it, you loosen the budget as easily as you tighten it.

One thing I've been impressed with in this regime is their willingness to be opportunistic, including zigging when others zag. They focus on value and make gobs of moves, but on their timetable.

Last winter, for example, while they were most certainly working within broad parameters, they seemed more focused on finding perceived "value" than on staying within a fixed number. We may not have liked exactly how they made each decision, but they made a good-faith attempt to address every need they had with a good value. That included a trade on Maeda and waiting until the price seemed right to sign Donaldson. One of those worked out better than the other, at least for last year. That included giving the QO to Odo and signing Hill. One of those worked out better than the other. And there was Clippard, Wisler, Chacin, again a mixture of results, but all good risks by their definitions. Those are also examples of their tendency to make multiple moves to nudge the needle rather than focusing on the splashy move.

All that to say that to me, none of these options really fulfill all their needs. For example, one of the things they did well last year was entered spring training with 10 viable starting options, seven vets and three rookies, as I recall. This isn't a critique limited to you, Matt, but I'm not sure that I've seen any projections on TD that went beyond six or so deep as starting pitcher options.

So while they may well shoot for a decreased budget, I think there's at least more than the proverbial non-zero chance that they will match or even exceed last year's total when they consider what the needs are and what's committed. They may well wait Cruz out, for example, but if they get to a point where they've committed $122M, Cruz falls to their target, and they still don't feel like they are where need to be, I think they'll plop down the remaining amount needed, even if it pushes them over the "budget." As an overspend, I think letting Rosario go was as much about the timing as it was the dollar. They didn't want to commit to an overspend that early in the offseason. If it was a February decision and they knew where they were elsewhere, they might have run with him.

Pohlad seems to spend money when it's called for. He looks for value, but keeps the focus on the overall goal (including doing "corporate culture" things like paying minor leagues for a full season and giving to BLM). He most certainly is working from a revenue projection, but he's also smart enough to see the opportunity of a ton of revenue coming their way in 2022 if they strategically zig and go over budget far enough to have a legit shot at taking it all.

And similarly, while they most certainly are looking at current revenue projections, they also most certainly are NOT looking at just one-year budgeting cycles. If they ended up close to a projected $140M after committing to Donaldson in 2020, they very well may have been targeting $150M in their two-years-out budget for 2021. They knew it was a four-year commitment to Donaldson, not a one-year commitment.

The 2020 season is now a sunk cost, and a Pohlad doesn't approach his 2021 feeling the need to make back his losses on 2020. So even if you take a 10 percent cut from a planned 2021 budget of $150M, for example, you're still talking $135M, not $125M. 

So that's why I vote for "none of the above," but I'm not smart enough and haven't been following closely enough to have an alternate proposal at that level. I just don't think that they will try to shoehorn 12 spots (more really, when depth is considered) into just $40M when there's a division and more to be won. 

(Edit to add: Maybe another way to say it is, Pohlad seems like the kind of guy who would say, "Look, COVID has really messed things up. We don't know how things are going to play themselves. Revenue might be way down, but it might not be down as much as we think. Let's not overact. Go conservative on that $150M plan we had for 2021, and if we come up short on the revenue side, we'll deal with that later.")

Obviously the BEST plan is one with "diversity."  

Can't go ALL Pitching or ALL Hitting   They need balance.

That said here's my plan with a couple of trades:

Sano, Garver, Larnach and Enlow  for  Trevor Story and German Marquez.

Arraez and Dobnak for Ketel Marte  (possibly swap Sabato for Dobnak).

Sign Puig 2.00 Million

Sign Brad Hand or Trevor Rosenthal for $7 Million

Sign Alex Wood for $7 million

Resign Nelson Cruz for $14 Million

Sign Alex Avila for $1.00

Twins Roster  

C   Jeffers    .600

C    Avila     1.00

1B  Kiriloff    .600

2B  Ketel Marte   6.00

3B  Donaldson   21.00

SS  Trevor Story  18.00

OF  Max Kepler    6.50

OF  Buxton      5.10

OF  Puig     2.00

DH  N. Cruz   14.00

OF  Rooker   .600

OF  Cave or Wade  .600

$73.30 Million

SP   Maeda    8.15

SP   Berrios    6.10

SP   Pineda    10.00

SP   Marques   6.00

SP   Alex Wood  7.00

RP   B. Hand or  Rosenthal   7.00     

RP   T. Rogers     6.00

RP   Duffey  2.2

RP   Alcala   .600

RP  Theilbar   .650

RP   D. Law

RP   Stashek or Colina  .600

SP/RP  Smeltzer or Thorpe  .600

$55.50 Million

Total Payroll:   $128.8 Million.

I could have come in right at $125 with Tijuan Walker instead of Alex Wood, but we need a LHP in our rotation.  

I don't know how realistic my trades are, but listening to Zulgag and Mackey discussing a Story trade it seems like I'm pretty much there.  Twins could move on to Lewis at SS in 2022 if the don't sign Story long term.

But I'd say the heck with that---Story 3 to 5 years $20 million a year. 

Lewis takes over in CF if we move on from Buxton or he settles in at 3B when Donaldson has to move to 1B and Kiriloff takes over in LF.

Marte is CF insurance for Buxton and several other positions.

Polanco is super utility who plays a lot and can fill in at SS if needed.  

1.   Marte    2B

2.   Donaldson  3B

3.   Cruz   DH

4.   Story   SS

5.   Kepler  RF

6.   Puig   LF

7.   Kiriloff   1B

8.   Jeffers  C

9.  Buxton  CF

Polanco slots in just about anywhere.  You could also play Marte full time in LF and Polanco at 2B  (but Marte is a pretty good 2B-man).

Put Polanco at the #6 spot instead of Puig in that scenario.  

This team is built to win in 2021 and at some point Balazovic and Dhuran join the pitching staff and Lewis joins September 2021 or 2022 for sure.

Marte wouldn't be much of an upgrade over Arraez in fielding. He has more pop in his bat but for the money I'd much rather they keep a cheap Arraez and use the money for some other position or pitching. I'd also rather have a Pillar than a Villar or a Puig. 

As for Story, if you want another basher that strikes out a lot then have at him, but I think the Twins have more than enough of that already. Sure he's an upgrade defensively over Polanco but I think Poo will have a bounce back year offensively in 2021 and with Story costing an arm and a leg the money would be better spent elsewhere. Start by resigning Cruz. Hope Donaldson returns to form in 2021. Let Kirilloff fill Eddies shoes. I'd be more inclined to try to trade Buck and Kepler than anybody. Have Larnach/Rooker take Keplers spot, and get Pillar and have him fill CF. I can live with Sano at 1B if a trade there is out of the question but he's only got 1 more year to improve or bye bye to him too. These guys that the Twins have been counting on for the last 5-6 years have got to start showing improvement. Batting averages of .230 or only playing half a season due to injuries just doesn't cut it.  

I'd be interested in spending that extra money not on Story or Marte but on Tanaka and Wood. That's a shutdown pitching staff right there. Add a couple quality arms for the pen, maybe Rosenthal and Clippard and piece the rest of that with returning arms should be good. You'd have a rotation that shouldn't need a lot of top arms in the pen.