Carlos Correa Saved the Twins Offseason

I am delighted to have Correa back. I also think this is a great contract for the Twins. Despite his trash can indiscretions, Carlos is just, full-stop, one of the position players in the game.  But dumb luck is not a front office strategy and this is all this was. I didn't get the game plan last week and I don't get it now.  

But one one asked for my understanding or consent. Go get a right-handed bat and let's roll. 

Where we were last year before injuries was in first place by 5-8 games. We upgraded catcher, SPing and a utility piece from where we were last May. Possible upgrade to OF with Gallo (barf) and our RP is possibly deeper right now than last May. Without Correa we would have been still a 3-4th place team but we could have pivoted to another stop gap in Profar.  If we would have signed him to a two year deal with a 3rd year option 10 days ago, we could have been taking a call right now from the red sox and did another kiner fillafel (sp) midnight romance…

There are 30 teams in MLB. All of them are trying to improve. It's a zero-sum game because the league player pool doesn't improve or degrade much year to year. 

If the Twins are going to get better, someone else is going to get worse. With the exception of a few "tankers" at the bottom, no one wants to get worse. There are a few fortuitous "double coincidences of wants," but mostly the only way to get better is by outspending the other teams---not a strategy that is feasible for the Twins most of the time---or by substituting current players for future players in trades.

In the case of the Correa transaction, the Twins have decided to devote a huge fraction of their limited payroll (about 20%) to single player for the next 6 years, knowing that most of the rest of the team is (for now) cheap. This is a very risky strategy. We'll all be cheering for it to pay off and for the cheap peripheral players to evolve into cheap (for now) stars. But last season shows the downside: Neither Correa nor any other player can carry a team alone and without good team health and more than few teammates emerging as stars, we will be doomed to watching something like Ernie Banks's perennially losing Cubs.

Correa makes the 2023 Twins better and more of a contender, but they could have been a contender without him with good health and successful seasons from the rest of the team (as in 2019). And they could fail to be a contender with him (as in September 2022). Important deal, but not a guarantee of success, or even of improvement.

I’d have to say Falvey, Levine, Joe Pohlad, Rocco, the staff, and his teammates also had something to do with saving the off-season. Also Boras and maybe even some of the fan base. Point being, giving so much credit to one person overlooks some of the other praiseworthy participants. 

Would have been an absolute disaster offseason had things not worked out the way they did with SF/NYM. That said, it would have been a terrible offseason if Buxton decided to retire with knee issues. Some things, are out of their hands. 

The Twins really didn’t have a big to do list this offseason.  We needed a C and SS which we got, We still need a reliever, and maybe a top of rotation arm.  After that just some tinkering.  

I under stand the title that Correa saved the season but he and the others have to play the game to win ...

The front office and Rocco need to implement a new plan that hasn't worked since 2019 or the past 2 season for sure  , yes injuries were a big problem in 2022 but so was driving in runs in scoring position  ...

You see the ball you hit the ball , to many strikeouts and not enough clutch hitting , as a player developes  he should have a better eye at the plate and cut down the strikeouts and create more walks ...

Rbi's and runs do count and the twins have had problems scoring runs for a couple of years now especially with no outs and runners on third ... 

Have had a 100 rbi's or a 100 runs scored by any player since Rosario ...

Change the plan so those runners score  , bring back small ball , alot has to change in coaching and preventing injuries , rocco needs to know what his players are capable of and put them in winning situations ... 

I like Correa's attitude to win , and that he wants to take this team to the ultimate goal  ...

Correa just make this team stronger.  Shortstop has generally always been a weakness for this club so turning that into a strength is important.  I don't know why the bats were so up and down last year and why they seemed to fail with the bases loaded but there still is a lot of talent on offense and hopefully things go a bit better next year.  The pen early and starting pitching after the deadline pretty much doomed this team.  Buxton being hurt so early and trying to play through the knee issues hurt the team as well.  Lot's of injuries last year so if they can just stay healthy and improve the pen a little this team should be fighting for the division.  Without Correa this year was going to be tough.  With him this team has a chance.

This is Correa's team now, he's the face of the franchise for the 2020s just like Mauer was in the 2000s. If they don't make the playoffs in 2023 I expect to see a coaching change.

Folks are vastly under-estimating the value of Kyle Farmer. His role will be much more important than Urshela's was. He also saves payroll and has 2 years of control which is critical given that Lewis and the prospects need more time. Meanwhile Correa's window is open and the Twins absolutely need Farmer's talent on the field & as a right hand bat. He can play any position & he'll be an important option for Rocco. 

Sure the Twins need pitching which is next, but we also need Lewis and Kirilloff to succeed and they're still unproven, whereas Farmer is an anchor, Every player is only one play away from injury.  

And that's not even mentioning the importance of signing Vasquez, another right hand bat.

Would the offseason have been a disaster without Correa? With or without Correa I don't think they're done making moves, so time will tell. I was disappointed they missed out on some SP opportunities in free-agency, but the need may be filled via trade. I still think they need one middle of the rotation SP and one decent reliever.

Did we absolutely need a shortstop? We needed someone, whether it was Correa or a stop-gap to get us to Lewis/Lee/Martin. I would have been content with the latter, and so I wouldn't judge the offseason a disaster if Correa had gone elsewhere. I like Correa and I think he makes them better, but going forward I don't think he's going to be the elite player some expect him to be. I like $200 million over six years better than $285 million over ten, but that's still A LOT of money to tie up in one player. (Can you tell I'm a glass half-empty kind of person.)

1 hour ago, sun said:

Folks are vastly under-estimating the value of Kyle Farmer. His role will be much more important than Urshela's was. He also saves payroll and has 2 years of control which is critical given that Lewis and the prospects need more time. Meanwhile Correa's window is open and the Twins absolutely need Farmer's talent on the field & as a right hand bat. He can play any position & he'll be an important option for Rocco. 

Sure the Twins need pitching which is next, but we also need Lewis and Kirilloff to succeed and they're still unproven, whereas Farmer is an anchor, Every player is only one play away from injury.  

And that's not even mentioning the importance of signing Vasquez, another right hand bat.

Urshela had a 3 WAR season last year, you think Farmer is doing to top that? I don’t see him slotting in as a starter like Gio was, he probably plays the Adrianza / Marwin G role. That’ll still get him a lot of ABs since nobody on this team can stay healthy, but I don’t see him in the #4-6 spots in the lineup and hitting like Gio did.

It isn't hard to disagree with the premise, either (though, of course, respectfully....).  We improved at catcher (Vazquez over Gary Sanchez), 1B (Arraez over Sano), 2B is the same, SS is the same, 3B is Miranda over Urshela, utility is Farmer over Gordon.

OF - Kiriloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, versus Buxton, Gordon, Kepler (prob gone), Larnach, Kiriloff, Gallo.  Our depth, both infield and outfield, is better.

SP - Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober is better than Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddock, Ryan; in 2022, Ober, Winder was your fall-back, this year, we have Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddock down the road (plus, of course, the starter we get from Miami!).

RP - Duffy, Pagan, Joe Smith, Thielbar, Cotton, Duran, Coloumbe, Romero versus Duran, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, Pagan, Jax, Henriquez, Moran.

And the irrefutable argument that last year we got injured and played poorly, and this year, we just don't yet know!

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I under stand the title that Correa saved the season but he and the others have to play the game to win ...

The front office and Rocco need to implement a new plan that hasn't worked since 2019 or the past 2 season for sure  , yes injuries were a big problem in 2022 but so was driving in runs in scoring position  ...

You see the ball you hit the ball , to many strikeouts and not enough clutch hitting , as a player developes  he should have a better eye at the plate and cut down the strikeouts and create more walks ...

Rbi's and runs do count and the twins have had problems scoring runs for a couple of years now especially with no outs and runners on third ... 

Have had a 100 rbi's or a 100 runs scored by any player since Rosario ...

Change the plan so those runners score  , bring back small ball , alot has to change in coaching and preventing injuries , rocco needs to know what his players are capable of and put them in winning situations ... 

I like Correa's attitude to win , and that he wants to take this team to the ultimate goal  ...

Eddie Rosario has never scored 100 runs in a season. Now, that's not really a knock on eddie; it's very difficult to do. in 2022 only 10 players in all of baseball hit that number. (BTW, Carlos Correa accomplished it in 2021). The last Twin to do so was Jorge Polanco in 2019. yes, you need situational hitting to help it along, but you also need players that are healthy all year.

The idea that Rocco doesn't know what his players are capable and doesn't put them in winning situations of is fairly silly, especially in the context of a desire to play more "small ball". The roster of players we have are not suited for it. Luis Arraez has excellent contact skills, but his terrible knees make him a poor baserunner that shouldn't be trying to steal bases. Polanco, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Sanchez, Sano...these are not base-stealers. By not asking them to do things that they're not good at, Rocco is trying to maximize their success.

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Twins really didn’t have a big to do list this offseason.  We needed a C and SS which we got, We still need a reliever, and maybe a top of rotation arm.  After that just some tinkering.  

Agreed.

Not a good arm, but top of rotation arm.  This is not going to be cheap.

BP - I'll OK with Fulmer and Andrew Chaffin.  A solid experienced R/L relief pitchers to go with The Heat.  I do expect Lopez to bounce back, perhaps not to All Star level but better than most of his stint with us.

I am assuming the Twins, with no lockout, have been working with Pagan during the offseason.  I truly hope that the pitching coaches and trainers are blunt in their assessment of Pagan.  Raw Stuff is NOT going to do it.  At some point, he has to put the rubber to the road and PROVE it.

44 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

The pitching still scares me.  But in all fairness, I'll probably say that with a staff full of Nolan Ryan's, so take that for what you will.

But the staff full of NRs might scare you because each one would plunk you at the plate.  LOL

I am not as scared with this staff as I was in 2021 and the beginning of last year.

No more reclamation projects hope to strike lighting multiple times in a bottle.

Top 5 pitching staff?  No.  But I think they are going to be good from 1-5+

3 hours ago, Danchat said:

Urshela had a 3 WAR season last year, you think Farmer is doing to top that? I don’t see him slotting in as a starter like Gio was, he probably plays the Adrianza / Marwin G role. That’ll still get him a lot of ABs since nobody on this team can stay healthy, but I don’t see him in the #4-6 spots in the lineup and hitting like Gio did.

IMO there's no doubt that Farmer will be more important than Urshela. Not only did Farmer have more RBI's than Gio (78 Vs. 64 RBI's), but Farmer has played tons of SS with 98 games last year & 121 in 2021. Plus he can  play OF which means he's a lot more versatile. 

Farmer won't replace Gordon, but he may start at 3B while Arraez plays DH which could be often. With all of the complaints about Arraez's weak knees, he doesn't need to play the field very much, just be the best DH and platoon at 1B & 2B. And don't think that Miranda isn't capable of regressing at the plate. Miranda may actually be better suited for 1B so that Lewis can take over 3B after surgery. 

In this respect, Farmer is much more important this season than Urshela would have been. Plus Farmer has trade value due to having an additional year of control. Urshela was not a very fast runner either. Farmer seems to be an undervalued player which is why I'm bringing attention to him.

Forget the WAR, look at his function which I think is to play 3B & SS and to produce RBI's. He'll be a better replacement at SS then Palacios was. Why didn't the Twins play Gio at SS and let Miranda play 3B when CC was out? Miranda is an option at 3B, but not a lock IMO. 

Bailed out, big time.

The track record on trades isn’t the greatest.  That was probably in their back pocket of Correa didn’t fall into their lap.  Who knows how that turns out (Lee, Rodriguez, and/or Raya gone for someone on the cusp of a major injury).

The impact is greater than the 5-6 wins Correa provided statistically last year.  

He’s a champion and high-end competitor.  Completely changes the club house.  Young players learn more.  He eats up a lot of the pressure that may fall on others.

It frees up so many other things also.  It gives guys like Buxton and Arraez some protection in the lineup.  That may allow them to perform better.  It allows you to do things with the defensive alignment you may not have otherwise been able to.  Maybe you get Royce Lewis in left field to give you 3-4-5 WAR instead of Nick Gordon/Alex K./Larnach giving you 1-2.  You can move Farmer around to allow for more rest days.  Your lineup is much better against LHPs.  There is more fan excitement, more energy in the stadium.  More press coverage and exposure. He adds credibility to the roster that may result in players wanting to sign or be traded here at some point.  The ripple effect throughout the whole franchise is huge.

The impact might be closer to 10-15 wins than the 5-6 baseball reference will tell you.  Who knows.  A number of things can’t even be quantified properly.

I do know that FO and ownership got bailed out big time.  Fan morale was at a depth of low not seen in quite a while.  A taste of bile in fans mouths that wasnt going to wash away for some time.  That’s gone, mostly.

It can’t be disputed these guys are supremely lucky.  Where would they be right now if Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa (twice) hadn’t fallen into their lap because nobody else wanted them.  Very possibly not employed for this team any more.  But, hey, I’d rather be lucky than good.

I won’t give them credit for a “strategy.”  I won’t give them credit for their “patience” (that’s another one I’m hearing).  Doing nothing doesn’t mean patience.  They were likely just hoisting the white flag to rebuild.  I will give them credit for pouncing on the opportunity that fell from the sky and landed on their face.

Plenty of time left in 2023 to see what was the most important deal of the year but the Correa signing certainly shifted the dynamics around the direction of the team.

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Other Beastly stuff Clipped:

I won’t give them credit for a “strategy.”  I won’t give them credit for their “patience” (that’s another one I’m hearing).  Doing nothing doesn’t mean patience.  They were likely just hoisting the white flag to rebuild.  I will give them credit for pouncing on the opportunity that fell from the sky and landed on their face.

We can't know the strategy.  So, I am ok with giving/not giving them credit.

But patience, I can give them on this.  Not patient in they thought it was going to happen, but patient in the fact they waited to C4 was SIGNED with another team.  That is NOT an easy thing to do knowing your fans/team/owner are probably wanting to see something done.

Now, we will see if there is more to their offseason plans.  Do they attempt to back it up with a trade or two to try to get a true #1?  Supplementing the MaleCattleWaitingArea is an area to watch but there are a couple of good guys still available as FAs.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Eddie Rosario has never scored 100 runs in a season. Now, that's not really a knock on eddie; it's very difficult to do. in 2022 only 10 players in all of baseball hit that number. (BTW, Carlos Correa accomplished it in 2021). The last Twin to do so was Jorge Polanco in 2019. yes, you need situational hitting to help it along, but you also need players that are healthy all year.

The idea that Rocco doesn't know what his players are capable and doesn't put them in winning situations of is fairly silly, especially in the context of a desire to play more "small ball". The roster of players we have are not suited for it. Luis Arraez has excellent contact skills, but his terrible knees make him a poor baserunner that shouldn't be trying to steal bases. Polanco, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Sanchez, Sano...these are not base-stealers. By not asking them to do things that they're not good at, Rocco is trying to maximize their success.

I agree to disagree , Rocco and the FO will never take the twins past a playoff series to a world series ...

Yes Rosario didn't score a hundred runs but was our last 100 rbi player , I should have printed that ...

I thought dozier was our last 100 runs scored but I believe you ...

I hope we get our hope and the twins win some meaningful games into October  ...

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, the Twins were 9th in baseball in driving in runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs last year. About 2% above league average. They were almost 2% below average in 2021, though. They went from 48.2% in 2021 to 52.6% in 2022.

I go to games , I listen to them on radio  and watch them on TV  , my eye test tells me they are awful at scoring with runners in scoring position with no outs ....

I will take a different opinion, Correa didn’t save the off-season.  This board was going through the bottom dregs only a week ago. The statements were numerous .  One signing does not take us to euphoria.  What it is and what it does is he following, you have to be able to spend money and have at minimum 2 stars you have on long term contracts to supplement with young players and the proverbial role players. We were able to lock in the star and spend the money on what appears to be a reasonable contract.  We still need a lot more things to fall into place and finding a #1 SP is the major piece we are still looking for,   No one will know if this was a good contract for at least 3-4 years.  I am always one looks more at the long game than letting emotion overcome the current circumstances. At the same token I am generally optimistic and expected from the beginning for Correa to resign with us and as things were going sideways posted my reasoning why I thought the Twins would come out on top with a 6 for 210 mil contract as my base case.  

7 hours ago, sun said:

IMO there's no doubt that Farmer will be more important than Urshela. Not only did Farmer have more RBI's than Gio (78 Vs. 64 RBI's), but Farmer has played tons of SS with 98 games last year & 121 in 2021. Plus he can  play OF which means he's a lot more versatile. 

Farmer won't replace Gordon, but he may start at 3B while Arraez plays DH which could be often. With all of the complaints about Arraez's weak knees, he doesn't need to play the field very much, just be the best DH and platoon at 1B & 2B. And don't think that Miranda isn't capable of regressing at the plate. Miranda may actually be better suited for 1B so that Lewis can take over 3B after surgery. 

In this respect, Farmer is much more important this season than Urshela would have been. Plus Farmer has trade value due to having an additional year of control. Urshela was not a very fast runner either. Farmer seems to be an undervalued player which is why I'm bringing attention to him.

Forget the WAR, look at his function which I think is to play 3B & SS and to produce RBI's. He'll be a better replacement at SS then Palacios was. Why didn't the Twins play Gio at SS and let Miranda play 3B when CC was out? Miranda is an option at 3B, but not a lock IMO. 

Right. Will Farmer match Urshela’s WAR from last year? Perhaps, even probably not.

But in the context of this year’s team, Farmer seems way more valuable. Plus a better contract, as you note.

I agree that he’s been undervalued on TD this off-season, but practically anyone outside of Correa was going to be disparaged here.