Buyer Beware: Reviewing the Twins’ Recent Reliever Trades

History aside, it doesn't mean they shouldn't do it. It's the biggest weakness of this team.

However, as you said, it's a seller's market. I don't know where the help is going to come from. 

It's buyer beware in every trade.  But you make a good point in trading for relievers.  What bothers me is to hear the Twins and others say it's going to be hard to trade for a reliever because everyone is looking for one.  It's the FO job to bolster the team.  It is there job to do it the best way possible.  But do it!!!  This bullpen has lost numerous games from the 8th inning on.  I am not sure what if anything they are doing about it.  The pitching department and bullpen in particular is a train wreck.  Where is Falvey and the front office?  Yes we are in first place, albeit in a poor division but should be a lot further ahead.  Too many missed opportunities.

Ya pays yer money; ya takes yer chances.

Those are more recent examples, but it hasn't always been bad.  Ron Perronoski, Al Worthington, Mike Marshall are some blasts from the past.  Joe Nathan, Rick Aguilara from the not so distant past.  The fact is, this bullpen is TERRIBLE.  Duran has been the best, but he's just a rookie and lost the game last night.  

If the Twins had just an average BP they'd have 5 more wins minimum.  It is their Achillies Heel.  Something needs to be done sooner rather than later, or the Indi...Guardians and White Sox are going to right their ships and pass us by.  It is not going to better with our bullpen by giving the current pitchers "more time."  It is only going to get worse.  Trading Taylor Rogers for a SP and an average BP piece was not wrong at the time.  But given the circumstances we find ourselves in, it has turned out horribly.   

If this team was poised for a realistic playoff run I’d say make some decisive moves to upgrade the BP. But the pitching staff is too thin in both starting and relieving and they don’t have an ace. They shouldn’t give up highly regarded prospects to possibly win one playoff series. 

Sometimes a team needs to put themselves in the action. In the trades listed only Ramos was a loss and Mauer was entrenched at the time.

Falvey was enamored with Paddack three years ago (me too) and didn't update the cautions (I did). Trading Rogers to San Diego was a terrible idea that cost the Twins a good reliever and $11 million. Now it is time to add a couple of relievers and the team has plenty of minor league prospect capital to dangle, especially considering the youth of the mlb roster and Lewis block many of the milb guys.

56 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Those are more recent examples, but it hasn't always been bad.  Ron Perronoski, Al Worthington, Mike Marshall are some blasts from the past.  Joe Nathan, Rick Aguilara from the not so distant past.  The fact is, this bullpen is TERRIBLE.  Duran has been the best, but he's just a rookie and lost the game last night.  

If the Twins had just an average BP they'd have 5 more wins minimum.  It is their Achillies Heel.  Something needs to be done sooner rather than later, or the Indi...Guardians and White Sox are going to right their ships and pass us by.  It is not going to better with our bullpen by giving the current pitchers "more time."  It is only going to get worse.  Trading Taylor Rogers for a SP and an average BP piece was not wrong at the time.  But given the circumstances we find ourselves in, it has turned out horribly.   

Jeff Reardon had some good seasons with the Twins and helped them win their 1st WS. That was an off season trade but with any deal you have check the tires not take some ones word for it. There for awhile Twins were very successful in finding very good closers

I would focus on prospects for a good reliever with remaining control years.  I know it will be expensive, but I hate the idea of getting a rental and then having to plug that hole for next year or not plug it and be in the same state a year from now.

Before the season I kept hearing we are working for 2023 and if we win this year that'd be great but the stars are not yet aligning for this year.  The FO needs to decide on a plan and go for it.  I just don't quite feel comfortable with pushing in all the chips given what I've seen so far this year.  We are a good young team with lots of holes.

Try for quality relief pitching for quality prospect that are blocked  because of depth  ....

Keep steer for now ...

This bullpen staff doesn't look like it would have a chance of survival in the post season, if we even get there. Tyler Duffey epitomizes the staff collapse - no idea how he sunk so quickly. He had looked like a closing candidate right after the Taylor Rogers deal.

Agreed it is "buyer beware" for any deals, especially pitching moves. But I'd love to see one or two G. Soto, D. Bednar, A Munoz types added to the bullpen right now. We have the prospect depth to do it.

Look at the names listed, none of them were ever going to be shut down closers. Trading for average rp gets average results.

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Look at the names listed, none of them were ever going to be shut down closers. Trading for average rp gets average results.

We could really use some average relievers, and if it costs prospects like Diaz, Berroa, and Teng then I’m all for it. 

Nicely done - I really liked your review of the players traded and how they turned out.  While we have really not had a good RP trade record in the last few years - we certainly have moved some potential pieces away from the Twins - Rogers with 23 saves and a whip under 1!  Sorry I hated that trade on day one. Brusdar Graterol - 3 saves, 1.17 WHIP 0.3 WAR.  Ryan Pressly - 18 saves, 1.083 whip - who reminds me of the Taylor Rogers trade.  Liam Hendriks does not count - I understand why they did not keep him, but I wish they had.  

And there is Tyler Wells - 1.8 WAR 7 - 4 3.28 era. Berrios has been a disappointment this year, but I would still take him.  How about a rotation with him, Wells, Gibson, Hill, Odorizzi?  Not all world, but is it better than what we have? 

Sometimes it is just about getting more from what you have and I want to see Price as long relief, I want to see more of the young arms in the BP - Cole Sands, Schulfer... forget the normal progression - get them up and give them some RP innings.  

When examining the past it is pointless to look at the trades made by previous administrations. They are no longer here, the current group operates differently

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

When examining the past it is pointless to look at the trades made by previous administrations. They are no longer here, the current group operates differently

Fair point.

I was just thinking "What if the Twins were in 4th or 5ht place? Who would be available from the bullpen and what would they get in return?"

Caleb Thielbar. If situational lefties still existed, maybe. The fact that he IS left-hnaded would help.

Emilo Pagan. That he has anotehr season of control is a plus. The cost of that season, questionable.

Tyler Duffey. Potential free-agent. So hot and cold you don't want to turn on the water.

Cotton, Minaya, Thornburg. All could've been had with a simple claim and eating salary owed. None were able to find a free-agent contract buyer. Makes Chi Chi Gonzalez look like a diamond, I guess.

Joe Smith. No trade value if he can't come off the IL list in time. Maybe the Twins just cut him  in August and another eam grabs him and eats remaining salary.

Don't see anyone knocking down the doors for a Twins pitcher. The best the Twins could hopeful is a potential minor league free agent, or a player that will have to be protected on the 40-man come season's end, but not by the trading team.

You wonder how the Twins have gotten and remained where they are today, with so many impossible trade pieces in their own bullpen.

An unmitigated disaster? Twins relief pitchers rank:

16th in ERA
21st in FIP
9th in xFIP

9th in Holds
24th in Saves
29th in Blown Saves

To have blown saves or record saves, you have to be winning the game, which is why an excellent bullpen like Baltimore ranks far lower in holds and a dumpster fire bullpen like Cincinnati has ranks higher in blown saves than you'd expect.

The Twins relievers have very good xFIPs with a mediocre ERA and poor FIP suggests the bullpen has largely been unlucky with home runs in particular (i.e. Tyler Duffey).

I feel the Twins' bullpen is a bit of a victim of Buxtonitis around here. Any memorable blown leads is bad, just like anything less than a 5.000 OPS for Buxton is him underperforming.

I am all for them seeking some trades, but just as they did in the Capps deal, I do not want them to overpay.  I said when they made it was an overpay.  I mean you give up a top catching prospect, which are always hard to find, for a rental relief pitcher.  I do not care that we had Joe, you knew he may come of catching at one point, and even if not, you could have got so much more in a trade, then a rental pen arm.  I do not expect this FO to overpay for a pen arm.

Just leave the team as it exists 

trades are someone stealing your prospects for their garbage usually 

the offense is good enough to overcome the pitching, but not if you trade some of the cogs in the offensive wheel

The entire blockage for many Twins fans is overpaying for a player in a trade. Falvey will need to decide pretty soon if he expects the Twins to have a good showing after the All-Star Game. The pitching is getting shaky. We know that Royce Lewis isn't going to be traded and they should not consider trading Emmanuel Rodriguez, but anyone else from the the minor leagues is fair game. I'm not a gambler but bet the odds are better for the Twins this year than they will be in the next two or three years. Get some pitching Falvey, please.

The Capps trade is the real danger, because as the OP pointed out, Matt Capps was good for the rest of the season. But I don't think he even appeared in the playoffs (tough to put the closer in when you are down several runs), and then he was bad. The problem was they gave up their top prospect for a reliever. (Someone mentioned Mauer was locked in at catcher, and that was true. Until the very next year.) NO RELIEVER is worth a top prospect, unless they will put you in the World Series that same year. Because NO RELIEVER can be counted on for the long term to make the loss of the prospect worthwhile.

This team's lead need is starting pitching, and not another middle arm. They need a #1 - #2 or they are not going to make it out of the first round of any playoff series regardless of what they do with the 'pen. Get a #1 (which WILL take top prospects), and then it would be worth sending lower prospects or position players for relief help. If you can't get a #1, make a fringe move to keep people happy, and do your real trading for the future in the off-season when you are not paying panic prices.

17 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

NO RELIEVER is worth a top prospect, unless they will put you in the World Series that same year. Because NO RELIEVER can be counted on for the long term to make the loss of the prospect worthwhile.

The New York Yankees traded a reliever for a top prospect, Gleybar Torres. The Twins don't have anyone who is in the category that Torres was at that time. The Cubs would do that trade for that little relief pitcher they acquired every single time. There wasn't any guarantee then and there aren't any now either. The Twins need some (two) relievers. Falvey isn't going to trade Lewis or anyone on the MLB roster. A trade should be accomplished.

Matt Capps was a huge upgrade over Jon Rauch and the Twins acquired Matt Capps for the playoffs, not necessarily for the following year. Wilson Ramos was the Twins' 3rd or 4th ranked prospect and he was on some of the top 100 lists to begin the year, but by 2011, Ramos was about the #5 (or lower) prospect for the Nationals.

Ramos has managed a 15 WAR career over 11 years since and is a free agent recovering from his 3rd ACL repair. People on this site act like Ramos was Buster Posey or something...

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

9th in Holds
24th in Saves
29th in Blown Saves

I am confused by this, Fox sports has the twins tied for 4th (Blue Jays and Cubs) with the most blown saves (17), behind the Rays, Braves and Red Sox.

And 20th with 19 saves

and the tied for 3rd with 57 holds (Astros)

The holds being high isn't a huge surprise since you get quite a few chances when the team is good and the bullpen is required to pitch more innings, The Twins are 25th in Quality stars (22), one behind Detroit, and one ahead of Baltimore and the Royals.

"https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?category=pitching&season=2022&seasonType=reg"

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Matt Capps was a huge upgrade over Jon Rauch and the Twins acquired Matt Capps for the playoffs, not necessarily for the following year. Wilson Ramos was the Twins' 3rd or 4th ranked prospect and he was on some of the top 100 lists to begin the year, but by 2011, Ramos was about the #5 (or lower) prospect for the Nationals.

Ramos has managed a 15 WAR career over 11 years since and is a free agent recovering from his 3rd ACL repair. People on this site act like Ramos was Buster Posey or something...

I was thinking about that too.  The counter to this article is the number of times our top prospects (say top 15) are having amazing seasons and fans start to get worried that they could be traded.  Then, the FO doesn't trade them and everyone is excited to keep that "star" prospect.  Except...2 years down the road, the prospect is struggling at AAA and either no longer a top prospect or even cut. 

The trade examples above with Romo, Dyson, and Capps all are less than spectacular results on both sides, with Romo probably being the best one for the Twins.

There is a risk in trading.  There is a risk in not trading.  Obviously, the more the FO makes the right choices on both sides of the coin, the better the team will be both long term and short term.

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The entire blockage for many Twins fans is overpaying for a player in a trade. Falvey will need to decide pretty soon if he expects the Twins to have a good showing after the All-Star Game. The pitching is getting shaky. We know that Royce Lewis isn't going to be traded and they should not consider trading Emmanuel Rodriguez, but anyone else from the the minor leagues is fair game. I'm not a gambler but bet the odds are better for the Twins this year than they will be in the next two or three years. Get some pitching Falvey, please.

What is the basis for your assumption that the Twin’s odds are better this year than they will be the next 2-3 years?  
 

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What is the basis for your assumption that the Twin’s odds are better this year than they will be the next 2-3 years?  
 

Fair question. Just a hunch that the balanced schedule along with the emergence of some highly rated prospects on several teams make the field more competitive for the Twins going forward. The trades I would hope for would bring in some players that could contribute now and in the future. I'll leave it to Falvey to do the damage but the Twins have youth on their MLB roster which should allow them latitude as to which minor league players to move. 

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Fair question. Just a hunch that the balanced schedule along with the emergence of some highly rated prospects on several teams make the field more competitive for the Twins going forward. The trades I would hope for would bring in some players that could contribute now and in the future. I'll leave it to Falvey to do the damage but the Twins have youth on their MLB roster which should allow them latitude as to which minor league players to move. 

Maybe I am just being optimistic but I look at the transformation / development of the team over last year at it’s looking like an upswing for the next several years to me.  They are in the midst of establishing a number of young position players that sure look like they will improve the team.  Kirilloff / Miranda and Gordon for that matter are performing admirably.  Since 6/1, their respective OPS are 825 / 883 and 860.  I am going to assume Lewis recovers which will give us a high performing / low-cost infield for the next several years.  Of course, we will still have Arraez and Polanco.  Those two have an OPS since 6/1 of 891 and 941.  They extended Buxton and Kepler is playing quite well.  Larnach was a considerably better defender than most expected and he has shown to be an impact bat although he will need to make some adjustments. That’s a very good group of position players and they also have Matt Walner crushing it at AA.  He should be here sometime next year.

On the pitching side, Duran and Jax sure look like long-term BP fixtures and it’s just not that hard to come up with a couple free agent RPs in the off-season.  I expect Canterino will be in the BP sometime next year too.  Gray is back next year.  Ryan / Ober and Winder have established themselves as solid SPs and Winder looks to have some upside.  Smeltzer will provide value as SP depth or long relief.  Paddack and Maeda will be back next year and there is a reasonable chance a couple of the BP arms like Megill that are getting a shot right now become reliable RPs.

That’s a significant amount of long-term talent being established that would indicate a team on the rise to me.  They are investing playing time in these guys and that investment is starting to pay off.  Plus, they are going to be in an enviable financial position to add free agent talent.  They got rid of Donaldson's contract and Sano's option will be declined.  So, they could easily spend $65M/yr on free agents next year and they don’t need to fill holes in the rotation or position players with the exception of catcher where in previous years their spending was allocated to patching holes in the rotation.  In other words, they will be positioned to fill out the team with high impact free agents instead of filling out the roster.
 

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Fair question. Just a hunch that the balanced schedule along with the emergence of some highly rated prospects on several teams make the field more competitive for the Twins going forward. The trades I would hope for would bring in some players that could contribute now and in the future. I'll leave it to Falvey to do the damage but the Twins have youth on their MLB roster which should allow them latitude as to which minor league players to move. 

I would add it is July 11th and they are 8 games over .500 and 4.5 games up on second (with the other top 2 teams not living up to expectations) there is no guarantee that happens in the next how many ever years. I sure as heck hope it is even better than that, but most of us assumed 21 would be division title contender at least and it wasn't even close. 

With that said the future does look bright with the things @Major League Ready has said, so I am not for trading the whole farm for this year, but I am all for trading a few minor league prospect to solidify this first place team, hopefully that result is two pitches better Romo and Dyson.